Vietnam Property Market Overview 2016

Transcription

1 Vietnam Property Market Overview 2016

2 Economic Highlights

3 Vietnam Economic Overview GDP Growth % Real GDP Growth (y-o-y) 1Q16 1Q15 1Q14 Vietnam 5.5% 6.1% 5.0% HCMC 7.1% 6.9% 7.7% Hanoi 7.0% 7.6% 6.6% Vietnam economy structure Quarterly GDP GDP ytd 47% 15% Agro-forestry and Fisheries Construction and Industry 38% Services 3

4 Vietnam Economic Overview % CPI - Overall % Transport services 8.4% Medical services 9.4% y-o-y m-o-m CPI 1Q16 versus 1Q15: 1.3% Education services 3.6% 4

5 Vietnam Economic Overview USD mil 25,000 FDI to Vietnam Projects 2,500 Real Estate ranked #2 20,000 2,000 USD 240 million newly registered capital 11 newly registered projects 15,000 1,500 10,000 5,000 1, FDI in 1Q16 economic activities ytd Registered FDI Disbursement FDI Projects 0 3% 14% 5% 6% 72% Processing Real estate Entertainment Logistics Others 5

6 Vietnam Economic Overview "000 arrivals Visitors to Vietnam 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, ytd March 2016, foreign visitors to Vietnam: Up 28.3% y-o-y China: up 66% Korea: up 30% foreign visitors domestic visitors 6

7 HCMC Market Overview

8 Office

9 HCMC Office Stock Saigon Centre Saigon Tower Diamond Plaza Grade A office buildings Bitexco Financial Tower Times Square Sunwah Tower Metropolitan Tower Kumho Asiana Plaza Vietcombank Tower 9

10 HCMC Office Market Overview Current Supply M 1.42M 1.52M 1.59M 1.70M 1.71M sqm (NFA) sqm (NFA) sqm (NFA) sqm (NFA) sqm (NFA) sqm (NFA) Typical New Supply in Vietcombank Tower 37,000 sqm Pearl Plaza 28,000 sqm Q16 Grade A Grade B Grade C Suburban Slightly increase in supply o o In 1Q16, two new office buildings joined the market, adding nearly 15,000 sqm to total supply. Good construction progress was witnessed at Saigon Centre Phase II and Deutsches Haus, which are both scheduled for completion in Cong Hoa 8,000 sqm 10

11 HCMC Office Market Overview Some newly completed buildings 426.1K sqm No. of buildings by NFA 473.1K sqm Building name NFA (sqm) Completion Robot Tower 3, Hai Ha Building 3, PT Building 2, Lim Tower II 8, Song Tra Tower 5, Cong Hoa 8, K sqm 416.4K sqm 146 HCMC Lottery Tower 18, Samco Building 12, Times Square 11, Pearl Plaza 28, Vietcombank Tower 37, < 5,000 sqm 5,000-10,000 sqm 10,000-20,000 sqm > 20,000 sqm Vietinbank Tower 28,

12 HCMC Office Market Overview 1Q % Vacancy rates 6.0% 7.5% 1Q16 Grade A Grade B Grade C Suburban 17.3K 21.4K 22.2K 41.9K 4Q15 Demand improves considerably o Net absorption was recorded at approximately 30,000 sqm in 1Q16, mainly thanks to the Suburban segment. o Many tenants relocated their office to the suburban area as the current supply in the CBD could not meet their expansion plans. 12

13 HCMC Office Market Overview Recent leasing deals of more than 1,000 sqm 22% Client name Previous location New location 44% Orion CJ Tower Pearl Plaza JIT Vietnam Petro Tower Pearl Plaza 33% Liberty Insurance Kumho Asiana Plaza Vincom Tower BIC New acquisition Pearl Plaza >1,000 sqm 500-1,000 sqm < 500 sqm o Demand in small- to mid-size office units accounted the biggest market share, based on number of leasing transactions during 1Q16. 13

14 HCMC Office Market Overview Average rents % Q-o-q changes in 1Q16 USD/sqm/mth Q-o-Q change Y-o-Y change Grade A Grade B Grade C Suburban % -0.3% % 2.8% % 0.5% % 1.2% Overall USD/sqm/month % 1.5% Rents continue to go up o Average rents are higher q-o-q across the board, with the Grade B segment registering the highest increase of 0.9%. o Many landlords felt more confident on quoting higher rental rates, as a result of an optimistic outlook at the current market. 14

15 HCMC Office Market Overview Future Supply K 136K 123K 74K sqm (NFA) sqm (NFA) sqm (NFA) Upcoming projects Mapletree Business Center Suburban 28,700 sqm Saigon Giai Phong Tower Grade C 8,500 sqm Grade A Grade B Grade C Suburban Upward trend in rents Limited supply of Grade A office in 2016 o o Approximately 55,000 sqm of new office space is expected for the remainder of 2016, with the majority being located in suburban areas. One decentralised Grade A office building, with GFA around 30,000 sqm, is likely to complete by year-end. 15

16 Residential Apartment & Villa / Townhouse

17 HCMC Residential Market Overview Total Stock of Apartments K 52.8K 59.7K 67.1K 75.8K 76.9K units units units units units units Some new completions in 1Q16 The Prince Residence 303 units by Novaland Group Galaxy units by Novaland Group ytd Affordable Mid-end Premium Luxury - less than 1% Khang Gia Go Vap Block units by Khang Gia JSC 17

18 HCMC Residential Market Overview Some new completions in 1Q16 Total Stock of Villas / Townhouses ,650 3,181 3,594 3,841 4,159 4,197 units units units units units units Lucky Dragon 38 units by Novaland Group ytd Villas / Townhouses 18

19 HCMC Residential Market Overview New launches 9,720 units launched in 1Q16 New launches in 1Q16 28% q-o-q 63% y-o-y 1,989 20% 2,795 29% Apartment By Districts in 1Q units 599 units 593 units 1,420 units 1,992 units 616 units 135 units 4,936 51% Premium Mid-end Affordable 19

20 HCMC Residential Market Overview New launches By Districts in 1Q16 Villa / Townhouse 279 units launched in 1Q16 44% q-o-q 98% y-o-y District units Nha Be District 134 units Binh Chanh District 27 units Proportion of affordable units Q16 61% 82% 38% 20

21 HCMC Residential Market Overview Take-up rates Units sold per quarter 8,974 7,572 5,205 19% q-o-q 24% 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 72% y-o-y 50% < 1,500 USD/sqm Apartment 26% >= 1,500 USD/sqm 46% 21

22 HCMC Residential Market Overview Take-up rates Villa / Townhouse 168 Units sold per quarter 33% q-o-q 58% y-o-y Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 AFFORDABLE units 46% o o Nha Be District topped other sub-markets, thanks to the good performance of the Nine South Estate project. In the meantime, District 9 still managed to have a strong sales momentum with 79 units 22

23 HCMC Residential Market Overview Prices 1,500 1,300 1, Average prices 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 Primary price 0.9% q-o-q 2.1% q-o-q Secondary price 5.1% y-o-y 7.7% y-o-y Apartments Average Asking Price by Segment All Apartments 1,382 1,143 Affordable Mid-end 1,378 1,313 Premium 2,121 1,981 Luxury 3,665 4, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 USD/sqm Primary Price Secondary Price Apartment Prices continue to extend their prevailing upward trends o Primary market: Apartments: Prices moved higher, and considerably so in the Mid-end segment. Some marked increases were seen in Districts 2 and 4. Villas / Townhouses: Prices continued to rise at a fast pace, mostly led by some largescale affordable projects in District 9. o Secondary market: Apartments: Prices were higher across the board, with growth of 5-7% q-o-q recorded in an increasing number of properties. Villas / Townhouses: Price uptrend continued but at a slower pace than in recent quarters. 23

24 HCMC Residential Market Overview Prices 4,000 Average prices 0.7% q-o-q 4.1% y-o-y 3,000 2,000 Villa / Townhouse 1,000-1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2.0% q-o-q 1.3% y-o-y Primary price Secondary price Average asking prices (USD/sqm) in 1Q16 on GFA Primary price Secondary price 1,101 3,131 o The considerable gap between the two indices, primary and secondary prices, is seen as indicative of the increasing expansion of the low-end sub-segment in recent years. 24

25 HCMC Residential Market Overview Projected completions Notable upcoming completions in Project name No. of units Completion Sunrise City North Towers VCP Park 1 & ,383 Apartment Hoang Anh Thanh Binh 1, Lexington Residence 1, VCP Central 1, 2 & 3 1, ,071 Vista Verde 1, Scenic Valley 1, ,639 units Masteri Thao Dien T1-T5 3, (*) all projectedfiguresareproducedbasedonprojectsmadeknownpublicly only VCP L1-L6, P2, P6, P7 5,

26 HCMC Residential Market Overview Projected completions Villa / Townhouse Notable upcoming completions in Project name No. of units Completion Saigon Pearl Villas Phase III Dragon Parc Vinhomes Central Park Villas Holm Residences ,271 Saroma Villas Mega Village ,237 units Park Riverside Nine South Estate (*) all projectedfiguresareproducedbasedonprojectsmadeknownpublicly only Melosa Garden

27 HCMC Residential Market Overview Projected launches By Districts in Apartment 20,000 new units expected for the remainder of % of the 2016 new supply will be High-end apartment units Units Binh Tan Binh Chanh Thu Duc Tan Dist. 9 Binh Binh Thanh Dist. 2 Tan Phu CBD Dist. 7 Nha Be (*) all projected figures are produced based on projects made known publicly only 27

28 HCMC Residential Market Overview Projected launches New & Subsequent launches in 2016 Park Riverside Saroma Villas Villa / Townhouse 1,800-2,000 new units expected for the remainder of 2016 Sala Shophouses Saigon Pearl Villas (*) all projectedfiguresareproducedbasedonprojectsmadeknownpublicly only Holm Residences Nine South Estate 28

29 HCMC Residential Market Overview Vinhomes Golden River Basic Information 2 Ton Duc Thang, Ben Nghe, District 1, HCMC by Vingroup Land area (ha) Building density 18.6% No. of blocks 16 No. of villas (unit) 63 No. of apartment blocks 13 - Aqua 1 50F, ~ 750 units - Aqua 2 50F, ~ 550 units - Aqua 3 42F, ~ 450 units - Aqua 4 36F, ~ 400 units 29

30 Retail

31 HCMC Retail Stock CBD Shopping Centres Non-CBD Shopping Centres Aeon Tan Phu Cantavil Premier Pico Plaza Pandora City 2009 Crescent Mall Maximark Cong Hoa Lotte Mart Phu Tho 2007 Parkson Flemington Parkson Saigon Paragon Lotte Mart Q7 Parkson C.T. Plaza Parkson Hung Vuong SC VivoCity Vincom Thu Duc Vincom Quang Trung Pearl Plaza Vincom Thao Dien Emart Vincom Plaza Go Vap Vincom Le Van Viet 31

32 HCMC Retail Market Overview Current Supply M 0.84M 0.87M 0.93M 1.13M 1.20M sqm (NFA) sqm (NFA) sqm (NFA) sqm (NFA) sqm (NFA) sqm (NFA) Q16 CBD Shopping Centre Non-CBD Shopping Centre Others Supply largely increases o o Two new shopping centres, Vincom Plaza Go Vap and Vincom Plaza Le Van Viet, added 65,400 sqm to the HCMC retail market. Convenience stores were expanding aggressively in 1Q16, among which the Vinmart+ chain was at the fastest pace. 32

33 HCMC Retail Market Overview New supply in 1Q16 Timeline of Delivery Name of Projects Vincom Plaza Go Vap Vincom Plaza Le Van Viet Completion Date January 2016 March 2016 Location Go Vap District District 9 Retail Area (NFA) 22,400 sqm 43,000 sqm Developer Vingroup Vingroup

34 HCMC Retail Market Overview Net absorption higher o o 1Q15 4Q15 9.3% 9.0% Vacancy rates 1Q16 9.2% Net Absorption In 1Q16, total net absorption of shopping centre totaled more than 50,000 sqm, mainly thanks to the quarter s new supply. The overall occupancy rate of the Shopping Centre segment remained high, driven by the F&B sector. 68,000 60,000 52,000 44,000 36,000 28,000 20,000 12,000 4,000-4,000 1Q16 CBD Non-CBD Vacancy Rate 10.1% 8.9% Net Absorption (sqm) - 58,110 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q % 12.0% 8.0% 4.0% 0.0% Vacancy Rate 34

35 HCMC Retail Market Overview Average Net Rents & Q-o-Q changes USD/sqm/mth Q-o-Q change Y-o-Y change CBD % 0.0% Non-CBD % -0.8% All % -0.4% Rents decline o While average rent in the CBD sub-market remained stable, the Non-CBD sub-market was slightly down q-o-q, due to low asking rents at the new projects. o The average gross rent of the Shopping Centre segment was USD 46.3 per sqm per month, a marginal decrease of 1 bps q-o-q. 35

36 HCMC Retail Market Overview Future Investment Grade Supply K 67.0K 57.4K sqm (NFA) sqm (NFA) sqm (NFA) Upcoming Launched Projects Aeon Binh Tan 59,000 sqm Open in 4Q16 Shopping Mall Supply to increase substantially o Many well-known retailers plan to open their next shopping malls in 2016 such as Lotte Group and AEON. The year 2016 to remain a challenge o CBD Shopping Centres Non-CBD Shopping Centres Downtrend in rent is expected to continue at low-performing properties, with lack of good quality tenant mix and low footfall. Lotte Mart Go Vap 27,410 sqm Open in 2Q16 Shopping Mall Saigon Centre Phase II 32,500 sqm Open in 4Q16 Shopping Mall 36

37 M&A Activities

38 Notable transactions in 1Q16 TNR Tower The Nam Hai Resort and Spa, Quang Nam Province A&B Tower 24 floor office of 30-floor mixed use development at 56 Nguyen Chi Thanh, Ba Dinh Dist., Hanoi Sold by Vingroup to TNR Holdings Estimated transacted price of USD 110 mil Grade B Office building in District 1, HCMC, Vietnam Estimated transacted price of USD 47.5 million for 70% interest Six Sense Con Dao Luxury beachfront resort of 40 villas and 60 hotel rooms Undisclosed price Five-star luxury beach resort Undisclosed price Keppel Land in JV to develop Empire City 14.6ha waterfront site in Thu Thiem New Urban Area Subscribe for 40% interest for total consideration of USD 93.9 mil Keangnam Hanoi Landmark Tower Vietnam s tallest building of office, hotel, retail, serviced apartments and residential in the new CBD of Hanoi Acquired by AON Holdings Estimated price: USD 383 million 38

39 Outlook 2016

40 Market Outlook Economy o Economy predicted to grow at 6.7%, second fastest economy in the world behind India o Global economy headwinds expected which could effect exports, especially China o Focus on local banks to reform and address NPL s - creating artificial market conditions Office market o No new office space in HCMC CBD will increase rents by 1-3% o Limited space opportunities for large occupiers in the CBD, so occupiers will need to consider non CBD locations o Will Saigon One rise from the ashes? o Enquiries from the FMCG, IT, insurance and financial industries will drive demand in the coming quarters Residential Market o 16,500 Residential Apartments due for completion in 2016, compared to 8,645 in 2015 o 20,000 new launches by end-2016, 30% in High End sector o More developers entering the market o Prices expected to grow 1-2% per quarter 40

41 Market Outlook Retail o Aeon and Lotte Group continue to expand in 2016 o Downtrend in rent is expected to continue at low-performing properties with lack of good quality tenant mix and low footfall. o Many new retailers expected to enter the market, subject to good quality space M&A o Strong interest from foreign investors o Vietnam looks favourable compared to many other South East Asian countries, as the economy and real estate markets improve o Foreign investors will continue to prefer income producing assets in major cities, will consider good quality J.V Partners o Will major Vietnamese developers will continue to dominate the market if banks tighten lending. 41

42 Market Outlook Always Expect the Unexpected! 42

43 About Jones Lang LaSalle

44 JLL is a financial and professional services firm specializing in real estate. The firm offers integrated services delivered by expert teams worldwide to clients seeking increased value by owning, occupying or investing in real estate. With 2014 global revenue of $5.4 billion, JLL serves clients in 80 countries from more than 1,000 locations worldwide, including 230 corporate offices. Achieving Success for Our Clients The firm is an industry leader in property and corporate facility management services, with a portfolio of approximately 340 million square metres worldwide. LaSalle Investment Management, the company's investment management business, is one of the world's largest and most diverse in real estate with $53,6 billion of assets under management. 44

45 Our Services To add value to real estate investors, owners and occupiers, we provide a full range of services locally, regionally and globally. In the CEE, services are delivered through the following teams: 45

46 JLL Overview JLL Vietnam The Vietnam corporate office has approximately 200 staff throughout the country. With ten years of experience in Vietnam, we have assembled a team of dedicated and confident individuals who have significant in-depth knowledge of the local real estate market. We provide our clients with the highest level of professionalism and expertise, and we always act in their best interest. JLL Asia Pacific , Countries Cities Staff Offices Our services Capital Markets Commercial Leasing Services Valuation and Advisory Services Research and Consulting Services Project and Development Services Property and Asset Management Integrated Facility Management Industrial and Logistics Services

47 Thank you Copyright 2015 Jones Lang LaSalle