COULD THE LONG WAIT FOR SUCCESS BE OVER?

Transcription

1 THE SLOW ROAD BACK Presented by: Marc Townsend, Managing Director, CBRE Vietnam Park Hyatt Saigon, HCMC 1 July, July 213 COULD THE LONG WAIT FOR SUCCESS BE OVER? Andy Murray ended Britain's 77 year wait for a men's Wimbledon champion British and Irish Lions ended barren 16 years with a crushing victory How much longer for the Vietnamese real estate market? 2 CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK

2 RECOVERY IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER 3 CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK THE ECONOMY THE ECONOMY MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION

3 1H 213 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Gold and Bank Deposits Become Less Attractive sell price (VND million) Local gold 5 2, 46 1,8 42 1,6 38 1,4 34 1,2 3 1, 9/211 12/211 3/212 6/212 9/212 12/212 3/213 6/213 Source: SJC Glob al gold price (US$) Global gold price: decreases 24% YTD. Local gold price: reached its bottom in June (down 22%) and currently down 19% YTD Deposit rates: 8bps reduction LOCAL GOLD GLOBAL GOLD over the last 18 months. CPI (y-o-y, Vietnam) Rediscounting Rate Refinancing Rate CPI (m-o-m, Vietnam) CPI (% y-o-y) / In nterest rates (%) 25 Inflation surged 4 2 Monetary expansion Monetary contraction Inflation controlled -1 Dec-1 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Source: State Bank of Vietnam CPI (% m-o-m) 5 CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK 1H 213 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Stock Market Recovers, Real Estate to Come Back into Focus? Source: Bloomberg Regional stock markets, y-o-y return as of July 9, 213: Thailand (SET) up 23.1%; Singapore (SGX) up 19.9%; Indonesia (JCI) up 12.8%; Vietnam (VNINDEX) peaked at 528 points in June, up 26%, but dropped back to 24%. REAL ESTATE INDEX 2Y 1Y 6M 3M 1M Current Real Estate Holding & Development Listed Companies (66) Real Estate Services Listed Companies (2) Source: Stockbiz Soc 6 CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK

4 GOVERNMENT POLICIES Support on the Way Fiscal Policies - Tax Cut (from July 213) Expansion Monetary Policies (as June 27) For social housing: Corporate tax rate: 1%; VAT: cut from 1% to 5%. Personal income tax: Level of deduction: increased to VND9 million/month from VND4 million/month. Level of deduction for each dependent: increased to VND3.6/month from VND1.6 million/month for one dependent. Boost domestic consumption and production Devaluation of the dong 1% versus the U Dollar (to VND21,36) The interest-rate ceilings on short-term dong-denominated bank deposits: lowered to 7.% from 7.5% The ceiling on dollar deposits: For institutional depositors: fall to.25% from 1.% For individual dua depositors: s fall to 1.25% from 2.%. Improve trade balance Reduce banks' funding costs => Lend at lower rates Encourage people to transfer USD for VND Bolster foreign-exchange reserves 7 CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK GOVERNMENT POLICIES VAMC come back next year 8 CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK

5 SOME PEOPLE ARE STILL SPENDING Car Sales Volume Recovers Vietnam Car Sales Volume 6, Registration fee reduced from 1% - 2% to 1% - 15% in April. 4,.6.2 2, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q No. of cars selling % change YoY -.6 GM and Ford accounted 18% of total personal car sales in 5M/213 Source: VAMA 9 CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK SOME ARE STILL BUILDING Steady Construction Progress at Some Major Development Sites Liberty Central Riverside C.T Leman Plaza MB Sunny Tower New Pearl Vietcombank Tower Him Lam Riversideid 1 CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK

6 THOUGH LESS THAN AT THE END OF 212 According to BCI Asia.. All Future Projects Ba Ria - HCMC Hanoi Da Nang Can Tho Khanh Hoa ( ) Vung Tau Hai Phong Office Retail Hospitality &SA Residential Total % Change compared to end of % -6% % % -9% 3% 3% Projects Under Construction HCMC Hanoi Da Nang Can Tho Khanh Hoa Ba Ria - Vung Tau Hai Phong Office Retail Hospitality &SA Residential Total % Change compared to end of % -13% -11% 71% -22% -11% 13% Source: CBRE, 4 July CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK HOWEVER, INFRASTRUCTURE MOVING AT PACE Metro Line 1, Metro Line 2, Saigon Bridge 2, Flyover Metro Line No. 1 is making good progress 12 CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK

7 METRO LINE NO. 1 IS TAKING SHAPE Infrastructure Development Will Increase Property Values The Vista Thao Dien Pearl Imperia An Phu Future projects Existing projects Metro line 1 The Estella Cantavil Premier 13 RESIDENTIAL MARKET HEATING UP M t station Metro t ti Source: CBRE CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK

8 REGIONAL LUXURY CONDOMINIUM Prices in HCMC Rank Second after Bangkok Condominium Selling Price (US$/sm) US$/sm 6, 5, Bangkok, 5,157 4, 3, Ho Chi Minh, 3,838 Hanoi, 2,596 2, Yangon, 1,611 1, Phnom Penh, 1, Q1 213 Source: CBRE Research Bangkok Ho Chi Minh Hanoi Phnom Penh Yangon * HCMC s CBD Luxury projects: The Lancaster, Sailing Tower, Avalon, Saigon Luxury Apartment, Leman CT Plaza. (Except: Vincom Center B) ** Hanoi Luxury projects: Pacific Place, Vincom Park Place, Golden Westlake, Landmark 72 (Keangnam Landmark), Indochina Plaza Hanoi, Hoang Thanh Tower, D Palais de Louis 15 CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK GOVERNMENT POLICIES Resolution 2/NQ A Push For Real Estate 3 trillion loan scheme for residential real estate: Unit size: < 7 sm each Price: < VND15 million psm The interest rate will be capped at 6% per annum for 1 years. Khang Gia Tan Huong (Tan Phu District) units - the first project in HCMC to benefit from the loan scheme Address apparent demand issues by providing mortgages to buyers Encourages developers to focus on the mass market 16 CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK

9 HCMC RESIDENTIAL MARKET Unsold Stock Improved 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, thanks to flexible payment terms plus incentives Q2 212 Q1 213 Q2 213 due to some New New launches Unsold inventory Paused/On-hold/Distressed projects converted to social housings or changed to other components Source: CBRE 17 CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK HIGH-END HAS BECOME MIDDLE-CLASS HOUSING While affordable is now truly affordable Units Sold by Segment, Q1/213 Units Sold by Segment, Q2/213 Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable 3% 3% 42% Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable % 43% 4% Affordable units continued to be the most-sought after. 26% Units Sold by Quarter 2, Sold U nits 1, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 17% $2,5 $2, $1,5 $1, $5 $ (US$/m2) Average pprice ( More units sold in high- end segment y-o-y thanks to more attractive payment terms plus incentives. Source: CBRE CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK

10 HCMC RESIDENTIAL MARKET Prices Tropic Garden District units Current asking price: $1,1-$1,3/sm Good payment terms: hand-over when 5% paid, the rest payable with % interest rate in 3 years Improved payment schedules for purchasers, with reduced interest rates on a temporary basis increase d sales Xi Riverview Palace District units Current asking price: $2,2-$2,5/sm High discount: 18% if 98% payable The Estella District units Current asking price: $1,6-$1,8/sm Good payment terms: hand-over when 5% paid, the rest payable with % interest rate in 2 years Imperia An Phu District 2 Him Lam Riverside District units Current asking gp price: $1,357 - $1,457/sm Good payment terms: 5% hand-over, the rest payable in 2 years with % Happy Valley District units Current asking price: $1,5 - $1,7 /sm Longest payment schedule (3 months) in PMH NUA Free parking 7 units Current asking price: $1,5-$1,8/sm Excellent payment terms: hand-over when 1%-3% paid, the rest payable with % interest rate Free parking Furniture package Gym free for 1 year Sunrise City (North) District units Current asking price: $1,119 - $1,428/sm Smaller unit size, lower price than P1, Good payment terms (54 months) Source: CBRE Central towers 19 CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK MORE DEVELOPER CONFIDENCE More launches coupled with more advertising activities nit Number of U Units Launched by Year Some 2, 15, 1, 5, Annual launch Q2 launch delayed projects were resumed and introduced to the market: PetroVietnam Landmark (D2), New Pearl (D3), Central Plaza (Tan Binh). Others starting to prepare for construction or launch. New launches increased by 51.% q-o-q and 234.5% y-o-y y. Source: CBRE Residential Projects Advertised, HCMC, 213 t No of Project March April May June MTD July Tracked on: Tuoi Tre; Mua & Ban; Tap chi Bat Dong San (Property Magazine); Thanh Nien; Nhip Cau Dau Tu; Doanh nhan Sai Gon; Saigon Times Daily; Vietnam Investment Review; Vietnam News. 2 CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK

11 HCMC RESIDENTIAL MARKET New Launches 1H/213 The Prince Residence Phu Nhuan District 277 units by $2, -$2,6/sm Happy Valley (P1+P2) District 7, 429 units Phu My Hung $1,5/sm Metro Apartment (Screc II) District 2, 14 units by Saigon Corp. & Hung Thinh $811/sm Nhat Lan 3 Binh Tan District 24 units by $571 - $619/sm Ehome 3 P2 Binh Tan District 161 units by Nam $794/sm Sunrise City (North) District 7, 182 units (total 554) by $1,119 - $1,428/sm Dragon Hill Residence & Suite* Nha Be District, ~15 units by Phu Long RE $1, $1,286/sm Homyland 2 District 2, 425 units by Bao Son Co., $761 - $881/sm Dream Home* Go Vap District, 518 units by Dream Home Co., $567/sm * Soft launch 21 CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK THE REST OF THE MARKET THE REST OF THE MARKET STILL TURNING

12 VIETNAM BECOMING REGIONALLY ATTRACTIVE Yangon is seriously overpriced Office Rent (US$/sm/month) USD/sm 9 8 Yangon (Grade B), Hanoi (Grade A), 33 3 Ho Chi Minh (Grade A), 31 2 Bangkok (Grade A), 27 Phnom Penh (Grade B and C), Q1 213 Bangkok (Grade A) Ho Chi Minh (Grade A) Hanoi (Grade A) Phnom Penh (Grade B and C) Yangon (Grade B) Source: CBRE Research 23 CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK HCMC OFFICE Highlights 85 office leases signed in 6 months by HCMC Office market performance Grade A&B 1,, CBRE Vietnam, up 2% on , Healthy absorption as market sentiment 6, improves and Average Grade A office rents rise.5% q-o-q. Oversupply a 4, misconception! 2, $25. $23. $21. $19. $17. Major occupiers FLIGHT TO QUALITY in 1H 213 and CONSOLIDATION taking advantage of available opportunities in new buildings. Local banking sector emerging as the largest occupiers of prime District 1 office buildings. 1% 24% New office buildings showing strong commitment, while major delayed projects have seen no movement. CBRE 13% $15. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Leased Area Vacant Area Asking Rent Tenant breakdown 1H/213 (based on CBRE deals) 13% 8% Finance 16% Source: CBRE 16% Pharmaceutical Others Technology Manufacturing Retail Legal 89.5 % 1.5 % 24 CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK Local Foreign

13 HCMC OFFICE Oversupply is beginning to disappear Number of successful deals during the first half of 213 done by CBRE Vietnam went up 2% on 212. CBRE Office Vacancy Spaces NLA (sm) Office net absorption (Grade A &B) NLA (sm) Grade A Grade B 4% 3% 2% 1% % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Source: CBRE 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, - Grade B Grade A Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK HCMC OFFICE President Place - LEED Office building achieved noticeable performance Key facts More than 75% of total space occupied after 3 months of official opening with the remaining 25% under offer 1% of Tenants are multinational organisations, with 66% of committed occupiers technology based clients Key tenants: Canon Diageo Vietnam Limited Microsoft Vietnam LLC Schindler Vietnam President Place Developer Address Total GFA Sapphire Vietnam 93 Nguyen Du, D1 11,475 sm A pioneering office development becoming Ho Chi Minh City's first LEED Gold accredited office building. Point of difference is key Note: Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) consists of a suite of rating systems for the design, construction and operation of high performance green buildings, homes and neighborhoods. 26 CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK

14 HCMC OFFICE Limited supply from prolonged planning/under construction projects HCMC Office Supply Forecast (Grade A & B), GFA sm 213 to 215 Completed - Q1/213 Existing Space - GFA (sm) 2,, Limited supply New Space Come Online 18,24sm, 8 quarters 1,5, 1,, 5, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Source: CBRE To be completed - Q3/ CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK RETAIL RENTS Regional Comparison Retail Rent (US$/sm/month) Bangkok, 117 US$/sm Ho Chi Minh, 17 Hanoi, 12 Siam Paragon, Bangkok 4 Phnom Penh, 4 2 Yangon, Q1 213 Bangkok k Ho Chi Minh Hanoi Phnom Penh Yangon Vincom Center A (Eden A), HCMC Source: CBRE Research 28 CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK

15 ASIAN RETAIL Retailer Expansion: Asia is Not Easy but Still THE Strategy Top Cities for New Retailer Entries, 212 Asia Pacific will continue to drive global retail growth in 213. Slower economic growth poses significant obstacles for retailers planning to expand th store opening Source: CBRE Global Research & Consulting 29 CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK HCMC RETAIL Taxation and Infrastructure Create Cost Burdens Restricting Both Retailers & Consumers Net absorption (NLA, sm) Net Absorption (sm) Vacancy Rate (%) 6, 23% 4, 17% 2, 11% % -2, -1% -4, -7% Source: CBRE 3 CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK

16 HCMC RETAIL Busy High-street Leasing The retail market is still driven by high-street leasing due to ready availability. Retail is constrained by infrastructure, mass public transport that generates foot traffic. CBRE Number of shop houses for lease 1H/212 2H/212 1H/213 Hai Ba Trung Mac Thi Buoi Le Loi Nguyen Trai Cao Thang Vo Van Tan CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK HOTEL Regional Comparison Hotel ADR (US$) 3 S$) ADR (US Yangon, 235 Phnom Penh, 15 Ho Chi Minh, 135* Bangkok, 18 Hanoi, Q1 213 Bangkok Ho Chi Minh Hanoi Phnom Penh Yangon Source: CBRE Research 32 CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK

17 HOTEL Flurry of Construction Activity at Significant Projects LIBERTY CENTRAL RIVERSIDE 17 Ton Duc Thang, D1 No. of rooms: 17 Completion: Q4/213 SAIGON HOTEL Dong Du, D1 No. of rooms: 1 Completion: 214 PULLMAN 148 Tran Hung Dao, D1 No. of rooms: 35 Completion: 214 SENLA BOUTIQUE HOTEL 111 Hai Ba Trung, D1 No. of rooms: 6 Completion: CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK HOTEL 1H 213 an enjoyable season for budget hotels Budget hotels are still a favourable choice for tourist arrivals the city given the spending power of tourists. Budget hotels within the CBD, particularly 2-3 star hotels around Ben Thanh Market, enjoyed a very good season with average occupancy rate around 8%. International tourist arrivals to HCMC in 1H 213: 2 million, up 5% y-o-y. No. of 3-star hotels 1H/ Ly Tu Trong 1 8 Le Thanh Ton 9 6 Thi Sach 8 6 Le Anh Xuan CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK

18 CAPITAL MARKETS THAW Vietnam reappears on the radar As forecast earlier in the year, Vietnam has seen transactional activity pick up. Deal velocity has increased in the first half, but with investment t enquiries i to CBRE up 2 3% in the first half, notable capital still remains unserviced on the side lines. CBRE 35 CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK FOREIGN INVESTORS REVIEW STRATEGY Greater Clarity Needed for Investors Sourcing Deals With capital remaining on the Capital Placement: Evolution sidelines, fundamental and basic changes are still necessary to further increase deal flow. Investors, across Asia, are favouring a more direct form of investment, where visibility of deals is key. CBRE FOREIGN INVESTOR FUND ENTITIES REAL ESTATE FOREIGN INVESTOR CLUB DEALS REAL ESTATE 36 CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK

19 DOMESTIC PLAYERS NEED TO FORGET 25 Quite simply - It is called Investment, not Charity Foreign investors are not here VALUATION to make you rich! The big four questions still remain without a realistic and honest approach to these, foreigners will look elsewhere. TRANSPARENCY STRUCTURING TRACK RECORD 37 CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK CBRE S FORECASTS - 2H 213 From our Crystal Ball After several years of hurt, Vietnam shows opportunity and return.; (Unfortunately, where ever there is a winner, there will always be a loser) Residential Real Estate again becomes attractive to Vietnamese investors as other alternatives ti (gold, stock market, deposit accounts) offer limited it returns; By the 214 Fearless Forecast the residential market will have passed the bottom As Andy Murray will testify, a win does not come easily; Those already committed to Vietnam, still have many battles to survive; Particularly for residential developers, flexibility will still be the key for success buyers still need to be nurtured; 38 CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK

20 CBRE S FORECASTS 2H 213 A Few More Thoughts. The next round of interest cuts proves to be one of the most decisive in improving residential purchaser sentiment; Middle-class housing projects, such as those seen on the Hanoi Highway in District 2, will see over 5% of the lights switched on by year end; Grade A office rents finish the year unchanged or slightly up as vacancy drops below 1% and new options on the horizon look slim; High street corners to become further dominated by foreign brands looking to expand their foot print; Investment deal flows continues to be at heightened levels as in the first half; However, many foreign investors still fly out of Vietnam without their wallets having been opened; Vietnam upgraded from completely toxic to just toxic; however further upgrades expected later this year. 39 CBRE BIG BREAKFAST 213 THE SLOW ROAD BACK CBRE QUARTERLY REPORT Available now with new pricing options, longer historical data and more in-depth analysis. quarterlyreports@cbrevietnam.com For more information regarding this presentation please contact: MARC TOWNSEND Managing Director T F marc.townsend@cbre.com