GDP exceeded the 2017 target and at 6.8% achieved the highest growth in five years. GDP per capita was US$2,385 and increased 10% year on year (YoY).
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- Felix Whitehead
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2 GDP exceeded the 217 target and at 6.8 achieved the highest growth in five years. GDP per capita was US$2,385 and increased 1 year on year (YoY). Credit growth is estimated to reach 18 to 19 percent. Estimated outstanding consumer borrowing increased 65 YoY. Loans for home buying and house repairs had a 53 share and increased 77 YoY. Inbound tourism continues to grow with 12.9 million international visitors for 217, up 29 percent. Accommodation and F&B revenues were approximately US$22 million, up 12 YoY. Total registered FDI growth was 44 and disbursement grew 11 over 216. Japan, with an over 36 share led new FDI registered capital.
3 RETAIL: Non-CBD Supply Total stock was approximately 1.2 million m 2 with 24,2 m 2 added from three new supermarkets and one shopping centre opening. Three closures withdrew 11,1 m 2. FIGURE Average rent 1 Average gross rent was down -3 quarter-on-quarter (QoQ). Average occupancy had a slight -1ppt decrease. Non-CBD rents decreased in the face of surplus supply to safeguard occupancy rates. Mil VND/m 2 /mth Many retailers offered flexible promotions to boost year-end sales. Larger projects focused on increasing footfall through consumer-.3 2 centric events and new appeals such as ice skating and a mini theme park.. Department store Shopping centre Retail podium OFFICE: Strong One 2,4 m 2 Grade C project in District 1 entered. Stock was more than 1.7 million m 2, fairly stable QoQ, but up 6 YoY. FIGURE Average rent 1 Performance remained positive. Average gross rents increased 7 YoY. The increase was attributed to limited CBD vacancies and new.9 75 Grade A and B projects launched over the year. Average occupancy was high at 96 percent. By 22 new supply is expected of up to 464,5 m 2. Mil VND/m 2 /mth SERVICED APARTMENT: Improved Three projects withdrawn and two new projects saw stock decreased overall by -2 QoQ. Total stock was more than 4,8 FIGURE 3.8 Average rent 1 units, up 7 YoY. There was an average occupancy increase of 2ppts QoQ and rents remained stable. Only Grade C had occupancy increases. To generate new business, many projects expanded their short-term offers. Mil VND/m 2 /mth The over 8 new units planned to launch in 218 are expected to affect segment performance. The CBD accounts for 7 of new supply..
4 HOTEL: Recovery Stock was up 8 YoY to over 16,5 rooms. One project was upgraded to 4-star this quarter. FIGURE 4 3 ARR 1 Average occupancy peaked at 76, the highest for 5 years. As the high season for international arrivals, all segments saw significant improvements with occupancy rates increased up to 12 ppts QoQ. The average room rate (ARR) was stable YoY. According to HCMC Tourism Department, HCMC welcomed 6.3 million international visitors this year, up 23 YoY. Korea, Japan and China were the leading source markets. Mil VND/room/night star 4-star 3-star APARTMENT: Grade C Sales Up Thirteen new projects and the next phases of 6 active projects FIGURE 5 launched, providing approximately 8,5 units, a decrease of -2 QoQ. There were more than 32, units available across all grades, decreasing -8 QoQ and -27 YoY. 1 8 Average price Absorption rate 6 Sales were over 15,1 units, increasing 32 QoQ and 44 YoY. New project sales accounted for nearly 3 of city transactions. Grade C had good performance, up 55 QoQ while Grade A decreased -46 percent. Absorption at 46 was up 14ppts QoQ and 23ppts YoY. Mil VND/m From 218 to 219, supply is expected to be more than 68, units from 65 projects. District 2 is expected to provide the largest share with 46 percent. VILLA & TOWNHOUSE: Vibrant Five new projects and one new phase supplied over 1,1 dwellings. Primary stock was approximately 2, dwellings, up 2 QoQ but down -32 YoY. Ninety three percent of new supply are townhouses. Sales were up 25 QoQ and YoY. Absorption was 67, up 12 ppts QoQ and 34 ppts YoY. Binh Chanh for the first time led the market with a 48 share. Ten new land plot projects added 2, plots to the primary market. Primary stock was approximately 3, plots. The segment achieved 63 absorption. In the next two years, new supply will be approximately 13, dwellings/plots. FIGURE 6 Townhouses Villas 8 Dwellings *Others: D.8, D.1, Binh Thanh, Phu Nhuan, D.1, Cu Chi, Go Vap
5 QMR Brief HA NOI RETAIL: Increasing Total stock was approximately 1.3 million m², up 1.2 quarter-onquarter (QoQ) and 6. year on year (YoY). Nearly 19, m² was added from three new retail podiums. Average ground floor rents decreased -2. QoQ. maintained its upward trend with 2.6 ppts QoQ growth. The shopping centre segment and the Secondary area both saw the most improved QoQ and YoY occupancy rates. Thirteen new projects are scheduled to launch in 218, cumulatively providing 229, m². The West area is seeing robust development of real estate projects and infrastructure. Mil VND/m²/mth FIGURE Avg. GF gross rent Department store Shopping centre Retail podium OFFICE: Improved Performance Total stock was over 1.6 million m², up 1.6 QoQ but down -1.9 YoY after two new Grade B projects came online. FIGURE 2.8 Avg. gross rent 1 Average rents increased 1.4 QoQ and 2.6 YoY and average occupancy increased 1.1 ppts QoQ and 6.2 ppts YoY. Grade A had the most improved performance, particularly in non-cbd areas. In 217, newly registered businesses grew 11 YoY to 25,16. The new year will see fifteen new projects supplying nearly 299, m², mostly in the West. Increasing competition is expected from coworking space and officetel projects.. Mill VND/m²/mth SERVICED APARTMENT: Abundant New Supply Fifty one mostly Grade A and B projects, launching 4,695 units saw stock up 14 QoQ and 17 YoY. From 218, approximately 1,45 units will come online from twelve projects, with four more in development. Average occupancy was 89, down -.6 ppts QoQ but up 1.7 ppts YoY. Average room rates (ARR) were VND54,/m 2 /mth (US$23.7/m 2 /mth), down -4.5 QoQ and -4.6 YoY. New entries helped take-up achieve 4 units. In 217, registered FDI to Ha Noi was US$3.6 billion. Japan was the major source to Viet Nam in 217 with US$9.11 billion. Mil VND/m 2 /mth FIGURE 3 Average rent
6 QMR Brief HA NOI HOTEL: International Arrivals Record One new hotel providing 151 rooms was officially graded 4-star. Stock was up to approximately 1, rooms, up 2 QoQ and 9 YoY. The peak season saw average occupancy increase 6 ppts QoQ and overall 4 ppts YoY. ARR increased 3 QoQ and 17 YoY. RevPAR was up 12 QoQ and 24 YoY. In 217, Ha Noi had a new high of 4.95 million international visitors, a 23 YoY increase and approximately 4 of national arrivals. Mil VND/room/night FIGURE ARR With 42 Ha Noi projects coming online from 218, pressure is set to increase across all Grades.. 5-star 4-star 3-star APARTMENT: Grade A Beats Expectations In Q4/217, nineteen new and nineteen active projects added 7,1 units seeing stock up 14 QoQ but down 32 YoY. Primary supply was 25,26 units, up 6 QoQ and 17 YoY. Absorption was 27, up 3 ppts QoQ but down 4 ppts YoY. The average asking price was US$1,24/m 2, stable QoQ but down -12 YoY. In 217, 63 new projects entered. New launches remained unchanged YoY, but primary supply increased 14 YoY. Grade A had the best performance, tripling sales YoY. In 218, approximately 26,3 units will come online. Grade B is expected to continue leading supply. Mil VND/m 2 FIGURE 5 Average price Absorption VILLA & TOWNHOUSE: Townhouses Doing Well Total stock was 4,419 dwellings, increasing 3.3 QoQ and 15.3 YoY. Ha Dong District continues to lead with a 24 market share, followed by Hoai Duc. FIGURE 6 12, Villa Townhouse Ten new projects and three new phases supplied over 1,29 dwellings. Primary stock was approximately 3,924 dwellings, up 4 QoQ and 52 YoY. Dwellings 8, 4, Sales were up 23 QoQ and 83 YoY. Absorption was 36, up 5.4 ppts QoQ and 6.1 ppts YoY. Townhouses accounted for 57 total sales. Hoang Mai Long Bien Tu Liem Cau Giay Tay Ho Others Ha Dong Hoai Duc Me Linh Others From Q1/218, new supply will be approximately 2,5 dwellings from 12 new projects. Key players are Vimedimex, Vingroup and Bitexco. Zone 1 Zone 2
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RETAIL: INCREASED RENT BUT DECREASED OCCUPANCY
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