MANHATTAN MARKET REPORT

Transcription

1 MANHATTAN MARKET REPORT 2nd Quarter 2018 RESALE bhhsnyp.com 1

2 NOTE FROM THE PRESIDENT While temperatures and humidity levels have risen in New York City, consumers have continued to show apprehension this quarter about the direction of the market, due in part to the recent Federal tax law and mortgage interest rates that are on the rise. As your trusted advisors, our team has the combined proven experience of achieving successful results for our clients through fluctuations of world markets and global unrest. We invest in our client relationships for the long-term and remain optimistic about Manhattan s status as a leader in real estate markets. The second quarter of 2018 gave us a significant surge in inventory compared to the prior quarter and substantial growth compared to year over year with The townhouse market bucked this trend of increased number of new listings with a 25.45% decline, year-over-year. Townhouses did perform well on the Upper East Side with a 94% increase in median closed sales price compared to second quarter Cooperatives (co-ops) showed strong results across the board except for average price per square foot, quarter-over-quarter. Condominiums (condos) increased by.3% in median listed price. If we drill down further by neighborhood, Upper West Side condos demonstrated a healthy 21.6% rise in median closed sales price, in sharp contrast with, downtown condominiums, which were down by 13.2% in median closed sales price compared to last year. Despite ongoing seller hesitation about where the market was headed this past winter, New York City once again proved its resilience with a resounding vote of confidence this April with the largest number of new listings to hit the market in the past 15 months. Condos, co-ops and townhouses all showed a decrease in the volume of contracts signed year-over-year with condos declining the most by 27.1%. The average sales price of condos, however increased by 14.9% compared to the second quarter of Q2, Co-op contracts compared to last quarter jumped by 35.4%. Despite a decline in the number of condo contracts year-over-year on a positive note, the median price for a condo increased by 6.3%. The $3M-$5M luxury price-point fared best in the percentage of contracts signed compared to a slight decline in the $500K - $2M category. Overall, closed sale numbers remained reasonably steady if we compare these to the second quarter of If we look at the average days on market of closed listings co-ops and condos stayed consistent, while townhouses witnessed an increase from 173 days on the market in 2017 to 201 days in the second quarter of The lower end of the market ($500K-$1M and $3M-$5M) continues to demonstrate the strongest annual growth compared to the higher end. Townhouses rallied with 2.33% in above- ask closed sales compared to the first quarter of 2018, in contrast to co-ops and condos which showed an increase in below- ask closed sales by as much as 10% in the case of condos. We are delighted to provide you with this report and remain confident, from experience, that our team has the technology to create uniquely tailored reports; which combined with their critical acumen, will help you interpret and evaluate the research. Armed with this intel, we place you in the driver s seat with the knowledge of your optimal choices when it comes to your home or investment property. Respectfully, Ellie Johnson President elliejohnson@bhhsnyp.com Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices New York Properties Madison Avenue New York, New York

3 MAJOR MARKET PERFORMANCE median closed sales price and year over year comparison Upper Manhattan Condo $830,000 s -5.4% Co-op $555,000 r 13.3% Townhouse $1,800,000 s -20% Upper West Side Condo $1,885,000 r 21.6% Co-op $1,146,250 r 1.2% Townhouse $8,000,000 s -27% Upper East Side Condo $1,605,000 r 1.9% Co-op $985,000 s -1.4% Townhouse $15,500,000 r 94% Midtown Condo $1,287,500 r 0.9% Downtown Condo $1,782,000 s -13.2% Co-op $624,500 s -6.1% Townhouse $4,800,000 s -15% Co-op $864,750 s -3.8% Townhouse $6,700,000 s -35% 3

4 NEW LISTINGS MARKET SNAPSHOT BY TYPE Median Listed Price # of New Listings Median Listed Price # of New Listings % year over year.3% 5.5% 3.8% 8.4% METRIC Q Q Q QoQ% YoY% Average Listed Price $3,028,947 $2,769,513 $2,948, % 2.74% Median Listed Price $1,795,000 $1,700,000 $1,790, % 0.28% Average SF 1,473 1,406 1, % 3.64% Average PPSF $1,826 $1,800 $1, % -0.83% # of New Listings 1,541 1,195 1, % 5.48% METRIC Q Q Q QoQ% YoY% Average Listed Price $1,849,553 $1,726,983 $1,691, % 9.36% Median Listed Price $950,000 $925,000 $915, % 3.83% Average SF 1,281 1,253 1, % 10.82% Average PPSF $1,184 $1,208 $1, % 2.58% # of New Listings 2,086 1,634 1, % 8.36% Median Listed Price # of New Listings 12.8% 25.5% METRIC Q Q Q QoQ% YoY% Average Listed Price $10,215,559 $10,370,154 $12,747, % % Median Listed Price $7,850,000 $7,225,000 $8,995, % % Average SF 5,401 5,579 6, % % Average PPSF $1,807 $1,826 $2, % % # of New Listings % % The total number of new listings increased dramatically, as compared to the previous quarter and also saw significant growth as compared to the same quarter in The only segment that saw a decrease in number of listings was the townhouse market which saw a 25.45% decrease as compared to the same quarter previous year. The cooperative (co-op) market showed strength and saw increases across all metrics except average price per square foot, quarter-over-quarter. As compared to the same quarter previous year, the median listed price for condominiums (condo) slightly increased at.3%. The median listed price for co-ops increased a healthy 3.8% whereas the townhouse price fell 12.8% reflecting a market adjustment. 4

5 NEW LISTINGS MARKET SNAPSHOT BY TYPE MEDIAN LISTED PRICE BY TYPE $2.0M $11.0M $1.8M $10.0M $1.6M $9.0M $1.4M $8.0M $1.2M $1.0M $7.0M $0.8M $6.0M $0.6M $5.0M NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS BY TYPE April of this year saw the largest number of new listings in the past 15 months. The total number of new listings increased for both co-ops and condos as compared to the same quarter the previous year. Potential sellers who held off during the uncertainty at the end of 2017 saw the Spring 2018 market as an opportune time to list, as indicated by the significant increases this quarter. Q Q Q Q Q

6 CONTRACTS SIGNED MARKET SNAPSHOT BY TYPE Median Last Listed Price # of Contracts Average DOM % year over year year over year 6.3% 27.1% 3 days METRIC Q Q Q QoQ% YoY% Average Last Listed Price $2,627,472 $2,418,049 $2,286, % 14.91% Median Last Listed Price $1,699,500 $1,500,000 $1,599, % 6.29% Listing Discount* -6.34% -7.78% -5.01% Median PPSF $1,621 $1,582 $1, % 0.04% # of Contracts % % Average DOM % 3.78% The average and median last listed prices for condos continued its upward momentum since a previous drop in the third quarter of Median prices for condo contracts increased 6.3%, while the average listing prices increased 14.9% as compared to the same quarter previous year. Average days on market remained steady from the same quarter with a slight increase of 3 days to 94. Median Last Listed Price # of Contracts Average DOM % year over year Compared to the condo market, the price for co-ops is historically less volatile. The median last listed price increased only 4.9% since last year, while the number of contracts saw a comparable decrease of 17.4%. The trends between the condo and co-ops markets remain aligned especially regarding listing discounts. As compared to the previous quarter, the co-op market saw the largest increase in contracts with 35.4% from 887 in the first quarter of 2018 to 1,201 in the second quarter. Median Last Listed Price # of Contracts Average DOM 4.9% 17.4% 13 days % year over year 55.4% 14.6% 35 days METRIC Q Q Q QoQ% YoY% Average Last Listed Price $1,577,851 $1,429,220 $1,347, % 17.07% Median Last Listed Price $907,000 $850,000 $865, % 4.86% Listing Discount* -5.01% -5.83% -2.50% Median PPSF $1,079 $1,094 $1, % 3.60% # of Contracts 1, , % % Average DOM % 19.39% METRIC Q Q Q QoQ% YoY% Average Last Listed Price $10,154,514 $6,565,588 $7,366, % 37.84% Median Last Listed Price $6,995,000 $4,995,000 $4,500, % 55.44% Listing Discount* % -3.46% % Median PPSF $1,853 $1,315 $1, % 17.04% # of Contracts % % Average DOM % % The townhouse market showed the most volatility in pricing with significant increases both year-over-year and quarter-overquarter. As with most quarters, the contract data for townhouses can be quickly impacted by individual sales due to the small sample size. For example, the number of contracts per quarter have held between 25 and 45 for the last 5 months. * Note: Listing Discount (also known as Listing Premium) calculated based on last asking price of a listing once it goes into contract relative to original asking price. 6

7 CONTRACTS SIGNED MARKET SNAPSHOT BY TYPE NUMBER OF CONTRACTS & MEDIAN LAST LISTED PRICE BY TYPE Number of Contracts Number of Contracts $1.8M $1.5M $1.3M $1.0M $0.8M $0.5M $0.3M $0.0M $1.2M $1.0M $0.8M $0.6M $0.4M $0.2M $0.0M Median Last Listed Price Median Last Listed Price, MEDIAN LAST LISTED PRICE, NUMBER OF CONTRACTS The number of condo units that entered into contract decreased substantially, by 27% year -over-year. The median price for condo units showed a healthy 6.3% increase year-over-year following a strong growth pattern since the beginning of the year. The co-op market saw similar trends as the condo market with less volatility., MEDIAN LAST LISTED PRICE, NUMBER OF CONTRACTS NUMBER OF CONTRACTS & MEDIAN LAST LISTED PRICE 25 $14.0M MEDIAN LAST LISTED PRICE NUMBER OF CONTRACTS Number of Contracts $12.0M $10.0M $8.0M $6.0M $4.0M $2.0M Median Last Listed Price The contract activity for townhouses saw its largest jump in the last 15 months from May to. The median last listed price for the entire quarter increased 55.4% partly due to April s significant increase. 0 $0.0M 7

8 CONTRACTS SIGNED MARKET SNAPSHOT BY PRICE AND BEDROOM % NUMBER OF CONTRACTS BY PRICE PRICE RANGE Q Q Q <$500K 9.4% 10.6% 11.1% $500K-1M 34.9% 36.1% 34.3% $1M-2M 25.5% 26.1% 27.3% $2M-3M 11.2% 9.2% 11.4% $3M-5M 8.1% 6.6% 7.2% $5M-10M 4.8% 4.8% 4.0% $10M-20M 1.8% 1.2% 1.0% $20M+ 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% The most considerable changes by price segment were outside the $500K - $3M contract signed price point. The second quarter of 2018 saw a shift in number of signed contracts from the under $500K to the luxury pricepoints especially $3M - $5M The ultra-luxury market ($20M+) maintained a steady share of contracts signed and was a slight increase as compared to the same quarter previous year. CONTACTS SIGNED BY BEDROOM: BEDROOMS METRIC Q Q Q Q Q QoQ% YoY% 1 bedroom Median Last List Price $1,082,500 $1,035,000 $1,007,444 $1,027, $1,079, % 0.32% % Market Share 32.7% 32.2% 38.2% 41.6% 36.8% 1.61% % 2 bedrooms Median Last List Price $2,150,000 $1,850,000 $1,998,000 $1,847,000 $1,995, % 7.77% % Market Share 32.4% 36.6% 32.6% 30.5% 36.5% % % 3 bedrooms Median Last List Price $3,350,000 $3,950,000 $3,547,500 $3,395,000 $3,495, % -4.15% % Market Share 18.1% 15.2% 13.4% 14.3% 13.0% 19.03% 38.49% 4+ bedrooms Median Last List Price $6,950,000 $8,750,000 $7,750,000 $5,247,500 $5,947, % 16.86% % Market Share 6.3% 6.2% 4.8% 3.4% 5.6% 0.85% 11.52% CONTACTS SIGNED BY BEDROOM: BEDROOMS METRIC Q Q Q Q Q QoQ% YoY% 1 bedroom Median Last List Price $749,000 $700,000 $699,000 $699,000 $749, % 0.00% % Market Share 36.5% 40.0% 38.8% 37.7% 39.1% -8.88% -6.64% 2 bedrooms Median Last List Price $1,375,000 $1,395,000 $1,412,500 $1,280,000 $1,375, % 0.00% % Market Share 30.0% 28.7% 29.2% 30.4% 29.6% 4.27% 1.12% 3 bedrooms Median Last List Price $2,795,000 $2,499,999 $2,350,000 $2,447,000 $2,395, % 16.70% % Market Share 13.1% 11.6% 10.7% 9.6% 11.5% 12.58% 13.82% 4+ bedrooms Median Last List Price $4,595,000 $4,450,000 $3,597,500 $3,395,000 $3,672, % 25.12% % Market Share 4.6% 3.8% 2.8% 3.3% 3.4% 19.47% 33.17% 8

9 CLOSED SALES MARKET SNAPSHOT BY TYPE % year over year Median Sales Price 2.6% Q Q Q QoQ% YoY% Average Sales Price $2,130,891 $2,177,361 $2,252, % -5.38% Median Sales Price $1,510,000 $1,405,000 $1,550, % -2.58% Average DOM 1 day Listing Discount* -6.42% -7.68% -5.19% Median PPSF $1,462 $1,461 $1, % -5.23% Average DOM % 0.91% Median Sales Price 4% Q Q Q QoQ% YoY% Average Sales Price $1,385,832 $1,363,028 $1,409, % -1.67% Median Sales Price $800,000 $807,000 $833, % -3.96% Average DOM 3 days Listing Discount* -4.98% -4.11% -3.61% Median PPSF $1,022 $1,023 $1, % -0.03% Average DOM % 3.73% Contrary to contracts signed, closed sales in the second quarter of 2018 saw median sales price decreases for both condos and co-ops, as compared to the same quarter previous year. Quarter-over-quarter changes were mixed, and we recommend the median sales price as the primary data point with average sales price figures as supporting points. In general, closed sales numbers remain steady as compared to the same quarter previous year. Q Q Q QoQ% YoY% Median Sales Price 14.1% Average Sales Price $7,363,007 $8,752,556 $7,468, % -1.42% Median Sales Price $4,940,500 $7,287,500 $5,750, % % Average DOM 28 days Listing Discount* % % % 5.64% 25.97% Median PPSF $1,314 $1,222 $1, % -8.00% Average DOM % 16.47% The townhouse median and average closed sales both decreased year -over -year and quarter -over -quarter. Sellers continue to leave more room for buyers to negotiate and should expect their townhouse to stay on the market an average of 201 days unless priced aggresivly. * Note: Listing Discount (also known as Listing Premium) calculated based on closed sales price relative to original asking price. 9

10 CLOSED SALES MARKET SNAPSHOT BY TYPE MEDIAN CLOSED SALES PRICE BY TYPE $1.8M $9.0M $1.6M $8.0M $7.0M $1.4M $6.0M $1.2M $5.0M $1.0M $4.0M $3.0M $0.8M $2.0M $0.6M $1.0M AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET OF CLOSED LISTINGS BY TYPE Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q

11 CLOSED SALES MARKET SNAPSHOT BY PRICE AND BEDROOM % NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES BY PRICE PRICE RANGE Q Q Q <$500K 12.3% 13.3% 13.1% $500K-1M 39.0% 38.4% 36.6% $1M-2M 25.7% 26.5% 26.8% $2M-3M 10.4% 10.1% 10.6% $3M-5M 7.1% 6.3% 6.8% $5M-10M 3.9% 3.5% 4.4% $10M-20M 1.1% 1.8% 1.3% $20M+ 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% Closed sales activity showed an annual decline at the top of the market. The number of closed sales in the $5M - $10M and $10 - $20M price segments saw slight decreases as compared to the same quarter previous year. Meanwhile, the lower end of the market remains very active with the $500K - $1M and $3M - $5M price segments seeing the largest annual growth percentages. CLOSED SALES BY BEDROOM: BEDROOMS METRIC Q Q Q Q Q QoQ% YoY% 1 bedroom Median Price $1,024,375 $999,000 $1,007,444 1,075,000 1,045, % -1.97% % of Market Share 33.3% 37.9% 39.9% 39.1% 34.4% % -3.22% 2 bedrooms Median Price $1,895,000 $1,883,500 $1,875,000 $1,875,000 $1,900, % -0.26% % of Market Share 35.9% 34.6% 31.5% 33.7% 37.9% 3.81% -5.13% 3 bedrooms Median Price $2,982,500 $3,500,000 $2,933,333 $3,112,500 $3,595, % % % of Market Share 15.3% 14.2% 12.2% 14.1% 13.1% 7.98% 17.01% 4+ bedrooms Median Price $5,400,000 $5,850,000 $5,615,625 $6,520,000 $5,500, % -1.82% % of Market Share 5.4% 4.2% 4.7% 4.3% 6.3% 27.55% % CLOSED SALES BY BEDROOM: BEDROOMS METRIC Q Q Q Q Q QoQ% YoY% 1 bedroom Median Price $700,000 $699,000 $712,500 $730,000 $725, % -3.45% % of Market Share 30.8% 30.5% 28.3% 30.6% 29.0% 1.18% 6.21% 2 bedrooms Median Price $1,295,000 $1,396,000 $1,350,000 $1,299,500 $1,339, % -3.29% % of Market Share 21.6% 24.5% 22.4% 23.3% 23.3% % -7.22% 3 bedrooms Median Price $2,413,125 $2,050,000 $2,455,000 $2,350,000 $2,332, % 3.46% % of Market Share 9.8% 8.3% 8.0% 8.8% 8.0% 18.54% 23.16% 4+ bedrooms Median Price $4,161,475 $3,525,000 $3,300,000 $3,944,000 $3,775, % 10.24% % of Market Share 3.0% 3.5% 3.2% 2.9% 3.4% % % 11

12 CLOSED SALES PRICE NEGOTIABILITY* Above Ask Above Ask 8.7% 9.6% At At Ask Ask 5.1% 9.5% CLOSED PRICE Q Q Q Above Ask 9.63% 8.74% 18.83% At Ask 9.48% 5.07% 10.41% Below Ask 80.89% 86.19% 70.76% The number of closed sales above ask declined year-over-year by half. The percentage of sales at ask remained steady, whereas below ask sales increased by 10%. Below Ask 80.9% Below Ask 86.2% Below Below Ask Ask 65.7% 72.7% Above Ask Above 16.6% Ask 21.6% At Ask 10.7% At Ask 12.7% CLOSED PRICE Q Q Q Above Ask 16.57% 21.56% 24.10% At Ask 10.71% 12.73% 13.55% Below Ask 72.72% 65.71% 62.35% While co-op buyers have less room to negotiate as compared to condo buyers within the market, trends show more negotiability and a growing majority of co-ops closing below ask. Above Ask 2.3% At Ask At Ask 2.9% 4.7% CLOSED PRICE Q Q Q Above Ask 2.33% 0.00% 4.44% At Ask 4.65% 2.94% 6.67% Below Ask 93.02% 97.06% 88.89% Most notable of the three markets negotiability is typically townhouses, and this quarter is no different. Townhouse buyers continue to have the upper-hand in this market. The increase in above ask closed sales this quarter could be contributed to price adjustments following the stark numbers in the first quarter of Below Below Ask Ask 93.0% 97.1% *% of closed sales prices above, at, and below original asking price 12

13 METHODOLOGY & DISCLAIMERS This report was produced and authored by Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices New York Properties in partnership with Perchwell and Katharine Riggle. Project point of contact: Marketing Department, Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices New York Properties Data sources: Perchwell, RLS, Automated City Register Information System (ACRIS), New York City public data and proprietary sources between April 1st 2017 and June 30th Market indicator definitions: New Listings The inventory that has come to market within the quarter, based on listing date. This provides for the highest level of accuracy when we consider new market supply. We examine the volume of listings brought to market each specific quarter. Contracts Signed The most-timely market demand indicator by reflecting buyers willingness to buy, market conditions and price. As contract price is not required at time of contract signed status reporting, contract signed prices are based on last listed price. Closed Sales Not all contracts reach the closing stage; thus, closed sales represent the net market demand at the final closing price. Closed data then becomes the most accurate price negotiability indicator. This report is based on market-wide Manhattan data for condo, co-op and townhouse resales. New development data is excluded. Sales price definitions: New listing/inventory prices are based on original listed price Contract signed prices are based on last listed price Closed sales prices are based on the reported closing price The average days on market for both contract signed listings and closed sales represent the number of days from the first listed date to the contract date. The number of closed sales for Q reflects all closed sales data available in ACRIS as of July 9th 2018 and has not been adjusted as there is a shortened lag period in our report due to exclusive direct ACRIS access. Information is based in whole or part on residential property transactions and is being provided as is. Data may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. bhhsnyp.com 2018 BHH Affiliates, LLC. An independently operated subsidiary of HomeServices of America, Inc., a Berkshire Hathaway affiliate, and a franchisee of BHH Affiliates, LLC. Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices and the Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices symbol are registered service marks of HomeServices of America, Inc. Information not verified or guaranteed. If your home is currently listed with a Broker, this is not intended as a solicitation. Equal housing opportunity. 13