CBRE MARKET INSIGHT - Q th September, 2015

Transcription

1 CBRE MARKET INSIGHT - Q th September, 2015

2 WE ARE FACING GROWING DISRUPTION IN OUR INDUSTRY TECHNOLOGY LEGISLATION 17,000 Vietnamese students in the U.S NEW PLAYERS TRADE 2 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

3 HCMC: 15/09/2015 HANOI: 21/09/ CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

4 4 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

5 1 Economy

6 EU IS NO LONGER WORRIED ABOUT GREECE - NOW IT S ALL ABOUT MIGRANTS AND CHINA 6 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

7 Vietnam Australia New Zealand Japan Brunei Malaysia Singapore Canada US Mexico Chile Peru Cambodia Indonesia Laos Philippines Thailand RoSEAsia China Korea India EU_25 Rest of the world CONNECTING VIETNAM WORLDWIDE Breaking News Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement Deal 98 Percent Done! Estimated boost to real GDP from TPP is highest for Vietnam 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Source: Vietnam Institute for Economic and Policy Research 7 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

8 ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY 1. ASEAN would be 7 th largest economy Number of Greenfield Investments in ASEAN Countries million people, 3 rd largest working population 3. Open economic: 54% of GDP is from Exports , 279 measures (79.7%) of the AEC Blueprint have been implemented. 5. ASEAN FTA: tariff rates on goods among ASEAN is 0% for ASEAN-6 6. Could triple per capita income by 2030, raising its citizens' quality of life to levels enjoyed today by members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) 8 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

9 GOLD, OIL, STOCK, CURRENCY FLUCTUATIONS Vietnam consumes 14.5 tons of gold in Q2 Oil (WTI) Global gold SJC Gold VN Index 51.19% y-o-y 0.6% y-o-y 3.45% y-o-y 5.52% y-o-y VN Index follows when Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index Plunges SBV will hold forex rate steady until early 2016 Currency recovers after the plunge in late-aug along with Fed s declaration of delaying interest rate hike. 9 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

10 Interest rate (%) DECREASING BANK INTEREST RATES The lowest inflation in 10 years supports further interest rate cut Vietnam Interest Rates and Inflation M 2015 Average CPI: 0.4% Mortgage rate for the first 12 months: Techcombank 9.49% Jan. 15 Sep % First 3 months: 6.99% Vietcombank 7.99% 7.2% (6 months) ACB 8.90% 7.5% (6 months) VIB N/A 9.39% First 6 months: 5.99% Average CPI (y-o-y) Lending rate Deposit rate Maximum loan tenor: 25 years Loan to Value ratio: 70% - 90% Lending rate: Average lending rate for enterprises. Source: Vietnamese General Statistical Office, State Bank of Vietnam. 10 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

11 DASHBOARD PRODUCED MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2Y 1Y 6M 3M 1M Current CPI (%) y-o-y BANKING & FINANCE 2Y 1Y 6M 3M 1M Current VN-Index USD/VND (inter-bank) 21,036 21,246 21,458 21,673 21,673 21,890 Trade balance (US$, bil) Retail & services Turnover (VND, tril) (0.3) 0.9 (1.0) (1.2) (0.5) (0.1) Local gold (VND mil/tael) Lending Rate (%)* 13.3% 13.1% 8.8% 8.1% 8.3% 8.4% Deposit rate (%)** (1-year term) 8.4% 7.1% 6.4% 6.4% 6.3% 6.2% Source: GSO, September 2015 Source: GSO, SBV, SJC & HSX, September 2015 REAL ESTATE INDEX 2Y 1Y 6M 3M 1M Current NEW LAUNCHES 2Y 1Y 6M 3M 1M Current Real Estate Holding & Development Listed Companies HCMC New launches (unit) 37,804 30,029 21,046 12,456 9,113 3,613 Real Estate Services Listed Companies HN New launches (unit) 27,318 19,746 11,280 6,503 3,308 1,181 Source: Stockbiz, September 2015 Source: CBRE, September 2015 (*) Current lending rate is the average lending rate surveyed at ten banks, applied for home loan only, However, the back-dated numbers are the average rate which was announced publicly at that point of time, applied for all sectors and all banks, The average lending rate is for reference only, (**) Deposit rate is the average deposit rate of a sample of ten banks in which the rates are announced publicly on their websites and can be tracked backwards, 11 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

12 INVESTMENT IN REAL ESTATE Vietnam 2 nd place in Greenfield FDI in 2014 HCMC FDI in Percentage of Vietnam s Investment Share China $75bn 30% Vietnam $24bn 9% India $23bn 9% Malaysia $19bn 7% Indonesia $17bn 7% Australia $14bn 6% Singapore $11bn 5% South Korea $10bn 4% Thailand $8bn 3% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% M 2015 HCMC Others FDI by Sector, 8M 2015, HCMC Significant FDI Real Estate Projects, 8M 2015, HCMC Real Estate Name of Projects FDI Amounts Investors Where 25.3% 61.6% Manufacturing Commercial Education Empire City Complex US $2 billion Thu Thiem Eco Smart Complex US $ 1.2 billion VND 2,000 billion Empire City Limited Liability Company Lotte Group Thu Thiem New Urban Area Thu Thiem New Urban Area Science & Technology Worldon Vietnam US $ 300 million BVI HCMC Other Source: World Bank, Oxford Economics, CBRE Research, FTNews 12 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

13 Percentage change Percentage change BCI NUMBERS Projects under construction, y-o-y change All future projects ( ), y-o-y change 600% 400% 200% 0% 2015 YTD vs vs % 200% 100% 0% 2015 YTD vs vs % HCMC Hanoi Da Nang Can Tho Khanh Hoa Vung Tau Hai Phong -100% HCMC Hanoi Da Nang Can Tho Khanh Hoa Vung Tau Hai Phong Projects Under Construction HCMC Hanoi Da Nang Can Tho Nha Trang Vung Tau Hai Phong All Future Projects ( ) HCMC Hanoi Da Nang Can Tho Nha Trang Vung Tau Hai Phong Office Retail Office Retail Hospitality and SA Hospitality and SA Residential Total Source: CBRE Vietnam, September 2015 Residential Total Source: CBRE Vietnam, September CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

14 2 Investment

15 NEW INVESTMENT FROM FOREIGN & LOCAL PLAYERS 15 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

16 16 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

17 Accommodation Value (US$ psm GFA) INVESTMENT HCMC: Land prices go ballistic for CBD sites Accommodation Value: Development Sites in District 1, HCMC $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 Source: RCA,CBRE Vietnam Transaction completed Site on sale Plot ratio 16 Accommodation value for Dev. Site in Singapore s CBD: 7,200 US$ psm (GFA) Golden site in Le Duan Street sold to Tan Hoang Minh for US$65 million bidding at 2.6 times of starting price. The site was acquired at an indicative price of US$18,000 psm. 17 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

18 MAJOR INVESTMENT DEALS IN CAU GIAY INDOCHINA PLAZA 138 GIANG VO STARCITY CENTRE HANOI Location: Hanoi Location: Hanoi Location: Hanoi Location: Hanoi Seller: CEMACO Seller: Ministry of Health Seller: Indochina Land Seller: Ocean Group Buyer: FLC Group Buyer: Van Phu Invest Buyer: Gaw Capital Buyer: Vincom Property type: Dev. Site Property type: Dev. Site Property type: Mixed-use Property type: Dev. Site Amount: N/A Source: Cafef.vn. Amount: US$29.3 million Source: Cafef.vn. Amount: $45.5 million Source: RCA. Amount: US$97.7 million Source: Cafef.vn. VRG RIVERVIEW APARTMENTS CELADON CITY FLORA ANH DAO 23 LE DUAN Location: HCMC Seller: Vinacon, RCC Buyer: Adventus, Khua Kian Keong Property type: Apartment Amount: $43.5million Source: RCA. Location: HCMC Seller: Sacomreal, TTC, An Phu Gia Buyer: Gamuda Property type: Dev. Site Amount: $64.2 million Source: RCA. Location: HCMC Seller: Nam Long Buyer: Hankyu Realty JV Nishitetsu Property type: Apartment Amount: $23.4 million Location: HCMC Seller: Ho Chi Minh City Buyer: Tan Hoang Minh Property type: Dev. Site Amount: $65.6 million Source: RCA. Source: RCA. 18 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

19 3 Infrastructure

20 INFRASTRUCTURE UPDATE BRT route Vietnam-Taiwan joint venture to build US$115million interchange Nguyen Van Linh Nguyen Huu Tho (HCMC) HCMC s first bus rapid transit (BRT) service ready in 2018 US$2.5 billion seaport in Hon Khoai Island (Ca Mau) Work started in Phuoc Khanh Bridge (HCMC) Hon Khoai Island 20 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

21 INFRASTRUCTURE HCMC Progress of Metro Line No Binh Thai section 5 Long Binh depot Rach Chiec 2 Thao Dien An Phu 2 Source: photos by Zing 1 21 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q Ba Son station, Opera House and Ben Thanh

22 HANOI METRO LINE Changing face of property market Hanoi s two metro lines are under construction: Cat Linh Ha Dong (2A) (13.5km 12 stations, Elevated) Nhon Hanoi Station (3) (12.5km 4 underground and 8 elevated stations 7 Positive Land effects Land Price Price Premium Premium Land Price Premium New Commercial/mixeduse cluster New Commercial/mixeduse cluster Commercial/mixed- New use cluster Revitalized suspended developments. Revitalized suspended Revitalized developments. suspended Bangkok s developments. BTS and MRT A ,000 single trips are made daily Land price premium (residential) for every km closer to BTS or MRT: BTS Skytrain MRT Blue Line Residential 6.5% 20.6% Non-Residential 9.5% 16.1% Source: CBRE Vietnam, Chuiti T CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

23 4 Condominium Market

24 CONDOMINIUM MARKET Timing! Timing! Timing! No longer easy to find good sites! 24 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

25 CONDOMINIUM MARKET HCMC - More New Launches in the South and the East in Q3 North 25% West 10% East 29% Central South 36% Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q Vingroup (VIC) to partner up with Sai Gon Port to develop a 32ha prime site in HCMC 25 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

26 CONDOMINIUM MARKET Hanoi More New Launches towards the East Is the market moving towards the East side for Hanoi market? 21% 21% Park Hill Times City 25% 10% 23% New Horizon City West South West Tay Ho and Midtown South South CBD Eco Green City Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

27 CONDOMINIUM MARKET Market Maintains Momentum, Spurring Capital Flows Q Both new launches and sales surge, the highest in a single quarter Hanoi 9,160 units launched +112% y-o-y Prices in USD up y-o-y, but slightly down q-o-q 1.4% y-o-y 6,880 units sold +154% y-o-y -0.2% q-o-q HCMC Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q ,114 units launched +200% y-o-y 2.5% y-o-y -4.0% q-o-q 7,862 units sold +88% y-o-y 27 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

28 M YTD 9M 2015 Units sold Units sold CONDOMINIUM MARKET 9-month Sales Close to previous Whole-Year Peak HCMC Sales volume and segment shares 25,000 20,000 Hanoi Sales volume and segment shares 25,000 20,000 15,000 15,000 10,000 10,000 5,000 5, % 24% 32% 35% 4% 6% 18% 29% 84% 46% 44% 37% 26% 48% 33% 28% M M 2015 Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

29 CONDOMINIUM MARKET New vs. Old Products HCMC Primary vs. Secondary Price of Typical Condominiums in HCMC Primary Asking Price Secondary Asking Price HCMC Q Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q Launched 10,114 units Sold 3,553 units (only for new launches in Q3) Absorption Rate 35.1% Should we be worried? 29 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

30 US$ psm CONDOMINIUM MARKET New vs. Old Products Hanoi Primary vs. Secondary Price of Typical Condominiums in Hanoi $2,400 $2,200 $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 Primary Asking Price Secondary Asking Price Royal City Times City Golden Land Building Discovery Complex Park Hill Hoa Binh Green City $1,200 $1,000 Q Q Q Q Imperia Garden Watermark Tower 30 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

31 Net Absorption Rate (%) CONDOMINIUM MARKET Net Absorption Rate Should We Be Worried? Historical Net Absorption Rate by Segment of Condominiums in HCMC 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

32 CONDOMINIUM MARKET HCMC is developing in all directions The Sun Avenue Vista Verde CBD Premium Diamond Island Existing CBD Sala Thu Thiem Sunrise City Phu My Hung SC VivoCity Source: Jason Pineau, retrieved in September CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

33 CONDOMINIUM MARKET The Historic East Side & The Developing West side of Saigon River Vietcombank Tower (office) Vietnam Commercial Bank Sabeco Pearl (mixed-use) Saigon Brewery & NovaLand Ba Son Port Saigon Port and VinGroup Vinhomes Central Park VinGroup and Tan Lien Phat Landmark 81: 456 units Existing CBD Thu Thiem The New CBD Khanh Hoi Port Saigon Port and VinGroup Sala Thu Thiem Dai Quang Minh Sarimi condominium: 450 units Source: retrieved in September CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

34 CONDOMINIUM MARKET The North Shore The Tresor Novaland 459 units US$2,550-$3,050 psm Icon 56 Novaland 312 units US$2,617-$3,105 psm Galaxy 9 Novaland ~500 units US$1,500-$1,696 psm RiverGate Novaland 319 căn hộ US$2,039-$2,512 psm The Gold View TNR Holdings 1,760 units US$1,529-$1,609 psm 56 units per floor District 4 District 1 *Asking prices are quoted exclusive of VAT and maintenance fee. Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

35 CONDOMINIUM MARKET Saigon South Phu My Hung Nine South Estates VinaCapital 381 villas US$1,619/sm The Park Residence M.I.K 1,224 units US$1,130/sm Dragon Hill Residence and Suites 2 Phu Long Real Estate Corp. Dragon Hill (Phase 1) Phu Long Real Estate Corp. 350 units US$1,255/sm Hung Phat Silver Star Hung Loc Phat Co., Ltd. 447 units US$831/sm Sunrise Riverside Novaland 621 units US$1,265 psm Phu Hoang Anh 1 HAGL 802 units US$1,020/sm Nha Be Source: retrieved in September CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

36 CONDOMINIUM MARKET Hanoi West Strong Supply Diamond Flower Tower Mandarin Garden Royal City Thang Long Number One HH2 Bac Ha C14 Bac Ha Mulberry Lane Ecolife Seasons Avenue Completed project Future project Photo source: Hanoi s Panorama Skyline Author: Vu Long Thang Long Boulevard 36 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

37 NEW LAW ON FOREIGN HOUSING OWNERSHIP What have we learnt after three months? Quota on apartments and villas owned by foreigners Foreign buyers quota - Should be eased in localities where many foreigners currently reside, such as Phu My Hung (HCMC) or Ciputra (Hanoi). Local people s committee should have the right to decide how many per cent of their area should be occupied by foreigners. Ownership tenure of new buyers upon re-sale counted as the remaining tenure of 50 years Questions and more questions Guidelines and Paperwork Loans Bank says Yes but in reality, it s a No Foreigners use credit cards, not cash Most buyers are Vietnam-based foreigners. Foreigners prefer drinking to buying properties on a Friday night! HOREA stated that this issue was not suitable and suggested the time limit be renewed when the house is transferred to the new owner. HOREA also proposed the government to grant from one to three year visas for foreigners who buy a house in Vietnam. From All-nationalities Event. to Themed Event for a Focus Group 37 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

38 POSITIVE INTEREST FROM FOREIGNERS FOR VIETNAM PROPERTY VINHOMES CENTRAL PARK ESTELLA HEIGHTS FROM 1st JULY 2015 >400 foreign buyers FROM 1st JULY 2015 foreign enquiries 30% 38 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

39 POSITIVE INTEREST FROM FOREIGNERS FOR VIETNAM PROPERTY THE VISTA, VISTA VERDE ENQUIRIES TRANSACTIONS 30% 15% Local Foreign TRANSACTIONS 70% 4BR River View Preferred 39 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

40 CONDOMINIUM MARKET Bangkok Case Study Condominium Price Growth THB THB 40% foreign buyers 10% foreign buyers 15-18% foreign buyers THB 40 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

41 5 Office Market

42 Hanoi US$/sqm/month US$/sqm/month HCMC US$/sqm/month US$/sqm/month OFFICE Asking Rents Q-o-Q movement in asking rent 40 $35.2 Asking rents of Grade A $19.7 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Grade A Grade B Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Mature buildings New buildings $29.1 $ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Grade A Grade B CBD Midtown West * New building: buildings completed since 2010 Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

43 APAC OFFICE RENT CYCLE Office rents hit the bottom in Q2/2015 and have been increasing since Q2/2015 Source: CBRE Research, Q CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

44 Net absorption (sqm) Net Absorption (sqm) OFFICE Vacancy rate decreasing trend HCMC Hanoi 80,000 16% 60,000 40% 70,000 60,000 14% 12% 50,000 35% 50,000 10% 40,000 30% 40,000 30,000 8% 6% 30,000 20,000 25% 20,000 10, ,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q % 2% 0% -2% 10, ,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q % 15% 10% Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

45 OFFICE Tenants Target - HCMC (CBRE Enquiries) Tenant Nationality Local improvement Tenant Industry YTD IT/Electronic 15% Local 100% Foreign Trading 12% 50% 44% Finance/Banking/ Insurance 9% Q Q Q Location preference Logistics 7% Q % Media/ Marketing 7% Q % Education 6% Q % 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Oil & Gas 4% CBD Fringe -CBD (D3/D4) Decentralized Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

46 OFFICE Tenants Target Hanoi (CBRE Enquiries) Tenant Nationality FIEs dominant Tenant Industry YTD Manufacturing 20% Local 53% 63% 69% Foreign Finance/Banking/Insurance Construction/RE 15% 20% Q Q Q Location preference Emerging Midtown IT/Electronics 13% Q % Consulting 7% Q % Pharma 6% Q % 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Edu 4% CBD Midtown West Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

47 HCMC Future supply (thousand sqm) OFFICE Upcoming Supply - HCMC 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Q F 2016F 2017F 2018F Grade B PEARL PLAZA Binh Thanh Dist. GFA: 37,434 sqm Completion: Q4/2015 Expected Grade A SAIGON SOUTH OFFICE Dist. 7 GFA: 30,000 sqm Completion: 2016 Grade A Grade B Grade A Supply: No new supply in 2016 Limited supply Grade B Supply: Increased steadily Quality of new buildings are improved in order to enhance competitiveness Grade A DEUTSCHES HAUS Dist. 1 GFA: 40,000 sqm Completion: 8am Tuesday, 1st of August 2017 Grade A SAIGON CENTRE (PHASE 2) Dist. 1 GFA: 40,000 sqm Completion: 2018 Grade A THE ONE Dist. 1 GFA: 15,000 sqm Completion: CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

48 HA NOI Future supply (thousand sqm) OFFICE Upcoming Supply - Hanoi 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Q F 2016F 2017F 2018F Grade A TNR TOWER Dong Da Dist. GFA: 56,000 sqm Completion: Nov, 2015 Grade B DIAMOND FLOWER Cau Giay Dist. GFA: 20,000 sqm Completion: Sept, 2015 Grade A Grade B Grade A Supply: Annually increase but more stabilized Old buildings required to renovate Grade B Supply: Increasingly abundant Quality of new buildings are improved in order to enhance competitiveness Grade B HUD TOWER Cau Giay Dist. GFA: 56,000 sqm Completion: Q2/2016 Grade B HANDICO TOWER South Tu Liem Dist. GFA: 29,040 sqm Completion: Q4/ CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

49 6 Retail

50 RETAIL Development Pipeline 3 South Vietnam 5 North Vietnam Vincom Quang Trung Location: Go Vap Dist. 27,000 sm GFA Vincom Bien Hoa Location: Bien Hoa 25,000 sm GFA Vincom Megamall Hanoi Highway 80,000 sm GFA Pearl Plaza Dien Bien Phu Str. 20,579 sm GFA Vincom Hung Vuong Location: Can Tho 18,000 sm GFA Vincom Exchange City Location: Tu Liem 23,140 sm GFA Vincom Nguyen Chi Thanh Location: Dong Da 44,500 smm GFA AEON MALL Location: Long Bien 108,000 sm GFA Vincom Plaza Hai Phong Location: Ngo Quyen Dist. 11,864 sm GFA 2H 2015 Saigon Centre Le Loi Str. 55,000 sm GFA (Takashimaya:15,000 sm) The One Pham Ngu Lao St 48,000 sm Berjaya Financial Center Ba Thang Hai Str. 156,000 sm Tax Center Le Loi / Nguyen Hue Str. 44,000 sm GFA The Parc by Gamuda Location: Hoang Mai Dist., Hanoi 14,000 sm GFA Vincom Plaza Hai Phong Shophouse Location: Ngo Quyen Dist. 6,130 sm GFA CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

51 RETAIL Significant Supply in HCMC in next 5 Years Pearl Plaza Dien Bien Phu Str. 20,579 sm GFA To open in Nov Vincom Megamall Hanoi Highway 80,000 sm GFA To open in 2015 Berjaya Financial Center Ba Thang Hai Str. 156,000 sm To open in 2019 The One Pham Ngu Lao Str. 48,000 sm To open in 2017 Saigon Centre Le Loi Str. 55,000 sm GFA 51 (Takashimaya: CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q sm) To open in mid Tax Center Le Loi Nguyen Hue Str. 44,000 sm GFA To open in 2019

52 RETAIL Significant supply in Hanoi Ciputra Hanoi mall Location: Tay Ho Dist. 130,000 sqm GFA Opening: 2017 Vincom Exchange City Location: Tu Liem Dist. 23,140 sqm GFA Opening: Q Vincom Nguyen Chi Thanh Location: Dong Da Dist. 44,500 sqm GFA Opening: Q Vincom Starbowl Location: Dong Da Dist. 51,234 sqm GFA The Parc by Gamuda Location: Hoang Mai Dist., Hanoi 14,000 sm GFA Opening: 2016 AEON MALL Location: Long Bien Dist. 108,000 sqm GFA Opening: Q CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

53 Seoul Bangkok Beijing Guangzhou Shenzhen New Delhi Shanghai Greater Manila Tokyo Hong Kong Hanoi HCMC Singapore Jakarta Taipei Sydney CBD Mumbai Melbourne CBD Brisbane CBD Adelaide CBD Perth CBD Auckland CBD Wellington CBD Development Pipeline (Thousand sm) RETAIL Development Pipeline 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, F 2H 2015F Q Completions Q Completions Source: CBRE Research, July CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

54 RETAIL Rents by location HCMC Hanoi Q Q2 Q1 Q4 Q Q2 Q1 Q4 Q Q2 Q1 Q4 Q Q2 Q Q4 NON-CBD CBD Q Q2 Q1 Q4 Q Q2 Q1 Q4 Q Q2 Q1 Q4 Q Q2 Q Q NON-CBD 20 0 CBD * Average retail rents exclude VAT and Service charge. Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

55 Net Absorption (sm) Vacancy Rate (%) Net Absorption (sm) Vacancy Rate (%) RETAIL Vacancy Rate HCMC Hanoi 60, , , , , , , , , Net absorption Vacancy rate Net absorption Vacancy rate Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

56 NEW URBAN RETAIL CONCEPTS Newly opened in Hanoi. Will it expand to HCMC? THE YARD Pho Duc Chinh, Ba Dinh District GFA: 8,000 sm Opened: July 2015 CREATIVE CITY Luong Yen Street, Hai Ba Trung District GFA: 17,400 sm Opened: September 2015 X98 Hoang Cau Street, Dong Da District GFA: ~9,000 sm Opened: October 2014 Target youngsters; Creative design with graffiti; Integrated outdoor and indoor stores: bars, entertainment, art exhibition; With parking; Positioning mid-end; Affordable to young customers. 56 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

57 RETAIL Expansion of Gymnasium Operator Asia's health-club industry is still in its infancy, with only a tiny number of fashion-conscious city dwellers keenly aware of the benefits of exercise. Only 1% to 3% of the region's urban residents belong to health clubs, as opposed to nearly 10% of U.S. California Fitness Centers s expansion plan New expansion California Fitness Centers Expand to 10 more locations in 2016 Several international brands are looking for spaces to Expand 57 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

58 2015 RETAIL ASIA-PACIFIC TOP retailers on the list Retail Company Ranking in Top 500 Ranking in Vietnam No. of outlets Sales (VND tn) Sales per sqm (US$) Co.op mart ,100 1,375 5,664 6,180 Mobile World ,646 12,545 Nguyen Kim Trading ,163 13,434 Big C ,991 3,820 The Gioi Di Dong plans to invest VND50 billion to open supermarket Nguyen Kim partnered with Central Group Saigon Jewelry ,769 31,525 Phu Nhuan Jewelry ,419 9,245 Vien Thong A ,298 6,591 Parkson ,007 Pico ,565 7,698 FPT Corp ,162 4, CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

59 RETAIL NEW RETAIL ENTRY DEMAND DRIVERS BY INDUSTRY, APAC HO CHI MINH CITY LUXURY AND BUSINESS TOKYO, SINGAPORE, HO CHI MINH CITY, HANOI, BANGKOK, SYDNEY, MELBOURNE MID-RANGE FASHION SHENZHEN, HONG KONG, SINGAPORE, HO CHI MINH CITY, HANOI SPECIALIST CLOTHING ATHLEISURE & FOOTWEAR: BEIJING, SHENZHEN, SEOUL, HONG KONG, TAIPEI, SINGAPORE COFFEE & RESTAURANTS GREATER CHINA, SEOUL, INDIA, SOUTHEAST ASIA, AUSTRALIA, HO CHI MINH CITY, HANOI VALUE & DENIM GREATER CHINA, TOKYO, MANILA, JAKARTA, INDIA, AUSTRALIA HANOI HOME WARE & DEPARTMENT STORES HOME WARE: SEOUL, AUSTRALIA DEPT. STORE: EMERGING SOUTHEAST (EX-SINGAPORE) CONSUMER ELECTRONICS OTHERS COSMETICS: BEIJING, GUANGZHOU, SEOUL, SINGAPORE DUTY FREE: SEOUL, TOKYO ENTERTAINMENT/SERVICES: SHANGHAI, GUANGZHOU Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q SUPERMARKETS SOUTHEAST ASIA (EX SINGAPORE), AUSTRALIA, HANOI 59 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

60 ASIA-PACIFIC STILL ON UP-SWING but China is close to peak H H Leasing market is on a slow recovery. Growth is limited to those top locations or welldesigned and managed shopping centres. Source: CBRE Research, Q CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

61 7 Industrial

62 INDUSTRIAL LAND RENTAL Land rental by provinces in Vietnam (2015) US$ psm, 50-year lease $300 $250 Southern Provinces Northern Provinces $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 HCMC Binh Duong Dong Nai Long An Da Nang Quang Ngai Bac Ninh Ha Noi Bac Giang Hai Duong Hai Phong Lowest rate $52 $38 $35 $45 $22 $22 $45 $50 $45 $59 $60 $68 Average rate $111 $74 $65 $69 $35 $35 $67 $101 $48 $61 $85 $79 Highest rate $270 $160 $150 $120 $45 $45 $100 $150 $55 $65 $100 $100 Hung Yen 62 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

63 MARKET TREND New supply Industrial land 63 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

64 OPPORTUNITIES IN SECOND-TIER CITIES Hai Phong Better connections to Hanoi Hanoi Hai Phong Expressway (105.5km) Hai Phong - Hung Yen (75km Completed 09/2015) Whole project (105.5km Expected completion Q4/2015) Bac Ninh Samsung s investment faciliate Vietnam export and supporting industries Phap Van Cau Gie Highway will be connected to Hanoi - Hai Phong Expressway via Ring Road No. 4 s 14km section, which is planed to be completed by CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

65 8 Hospitality market

66 Number of rooms Number of projects Number of rooms Number of projects HOSPITALITY City hotels Big names go live HCM, Total 5-star supply in Q Hanoi, Total 5-star supply in Q ,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000, Q Number of rooms Number of projects ,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Q Number of rooms Number of projects Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q LE MERIDIEN SAIGON 3CTon Duc Thang, District 1 No. of rooms: 345 rooms Grand opening: Q3/2015 HOTEL DES ARTS SAIGON - MGALLERY COLLECTION NTMK, District 3 No. of rooms: 168 Grand opening: Q3/2015 APRICOT HOTEL 136 Hang Trong, Hoan Kiem District No. of rooms: 123 Grand opening: Q2/ CBRE VIETNAM REAL ESTATE TIME TO RECALIBRATE JULY 2015

67 HOSPITALITY Coastal Provinces Becoming More Attractive HO TRAM - Big investments are seeping into the area thanks to pilot law for casino regulation relaxation and improved infrastructure MUI NE - BINH THUAN - Improving infrastructure Long Thanh Dau Giay is approaching completion PHU QUOC - New airport boosts arrivals HOI AN Casino project will resume construction in 2016 Choi Tai Fook replaces Genting Berhad and take controlling state 1 st phase construction is expected to start in st phase : mix-used complex includes resorts, amusement park, golf course, premium villas and apartments, worth a total of some $500 million. 67 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

68 HOSPITALITY Recovery Continues and Second Home Sales Come Back Sales increases 12 times y-o-y Sales triple y-o-y Sales up 100% y-o-y Da Nang 87 Nha Trang 341 Phu Quoc 7 units 2014 units 16,200 units YTD units 2014 units YTD units units 16,200 units YTD2015 Premier Village Da Nang 111 units Vinpearl Premium Nha Trang Bay & Vinpearl Premium Phu Quoc (phase 1) Vinpearl Premium Golf Land 264 units (544 units) Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

69 HOSPITALITY Phu Quoc dynamic construction site 202 projects granted Investment Certificate in Phu Quoc as of Sep 2015 Vinpearl Resort (P2) Vinpearl Safari Grand World Vinh Dam Project Sunset Sanato Novotel Hotel JW Marriott Hotel InterContinental Hotel 69 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

70 No. of room No. of hotel Number of villas HOSPITALITY Phu Quoc- second home property sets foot on the island Launched second home villas Da Nang Nha Trang Phu Quoc Phu Quoc welcomes the first second home villa for sales in 2015 (Vinpearl Premium Villa, Premier Villa by SunGroup). The next five years expects a huge flux of five-star hotels. Supply of 3-5 star Hotels in Phu Quoc 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, H 2015 Source: CBRE Vietnam,. 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f star 4 star 5 star No. of hotel 70 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

71 Number of arrivals HOSPITALITY European Visitors set to rise due to Visa Waiver Top eight guest nationalities to Viet Nam 1,800,000 1,500,000 1,200, , , , M2013 9M2014 9M2015 China Korea Japan US Taiwan Cambodia Russia Australia Source: VNAT, Q CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

72 Number of arrivals HOSPITALITY Northern Asian tourist dominates the market Total Arrivals to Da Nang 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , M2012 9M2013 9M2014 9M2015 Top five guest nationalities 3.8% 4.5% 8.6% 17.9% 26.7% 38.5% China Korea Japan America Australia Domestic International Others Da Nang City, 9M 2015 International: 32% y-o-y Domestic: 18% y-o-y Northern Asian guests accounts for 74% of guest portfolio of Da Nang Q3/2013 Q2/2015 China China Da Nang 40%-50% Da Nang 65%-70% Of weekly international flights 72 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

73 HOSPITALITY SECOND HOME MARKET Forgotten Sapa Developers are (still) eyeing sites Recent and upcoming projects Victoria Hotels and Resort Mercure Sapa Resort & Spa Indochina International Hotel Favourite conditions Hanoi Lao Cai Highway + other infrastructure development Tourist arrivals +21.6% 1H2014 vs. 1H : 1.2 million tourist arrivals (expected) Favorite attraction for both domestic and foreign tourists Hanoi Lao Cai Highway and Fanxipan cable car Vietnam Mountain Marathon. 70km trail run around Sapa 73 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

74 HOSPITALITY SECOND HOME MARKET Ha Long Bay Real estate market in Ha Long Bay is getting more and more vibrant, fueled by fast developing transportation and tourism infrastructure. 74 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

75 2015 OUTLOOK SECTOR OFFICE RETAIL CONDOMINIUM HOTEL SEGMENT New buildings Mature buildings CBD Non-CBD High-end Mid-end Affordable Inner-city hotels Beach hotels/resorts HCMC HANOI RENT/PRICE ABSORPTION RENT/PRICE ABSORPTION SERVICED APT. Grade A INDUSTRIAL Land Factory/ warehouse Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

76 AT CBRE, WE LIVE AND BREATHE THE BUSINESS OF REAL ESTATE Every quarter QUARTERLY REPORT Ad-hoc VIEWPOINT & SPECIAL REPORT Every week NEWS UPDATE Every month DASHBOARD Every quarter MARKETVIEW To subscribe to CBRE mailing list and receive frequent market updates, please 76 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015

77 THANK YOU! 2015 CBRE (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency of the information of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only, exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material are reserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party without prior express written permission of CBRE. Any unauthorised publication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication. 77 CBRE CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2015