Atlanta Housing Economic Trends

Transcription

1 Atlanta Housing Economic Trends September 2011 Note: This information is deemed accurate but not guaranteed. It is intended for the personal use of HBA members only.

2 Market Update With Smart Numbers Steve Palm Last month I started the newsletter with We are in a holding period for trends. For the 3rd consecutive monthly reporting period year-to-year closings are up, year-to-year average prices are down, and year-to-year inventory is down for all single family. I expect this trend to continue through the end of the year. I can use this again, but change 3rd to 4th, as for the 4th consecutive month closings for all single family were up year over year, average prices were down, and inventory levels continue to drop. There were 5,432 closings for all single family in August This was an increase of 31.2% over August 2010 and the most closings for an August since This is also the 1st time since records have been kept that there has been two consecutive year-to-year percentage increases of greater than 25%. The all time August closings high was 2006 with 7,849. Closings for single family detached in August were 31.4% greater than August This was the 3rd consecutive double digit percentage year-to-year increase and the 8th increase out of the last nine reporting periods. There were 794 closings for single family attached in August This was an increase of 30.0% over August 2010 and the largest year-to-year percentage increase since May The average sale price for all single family in August was $171,497. This is 11.6% below August 2010 and the12th consecutive year-to-year percentage decline and the 5th double digit percentage decline out of the last 6 reporting periods. The lowest average price in our housing down turn is February 2011 s $164,426. August was only $7M higher and I would say we could test a new low before the end of the year, but declining inventories may prevent this from happening. Increased demand coupled with lower supplies should stabilize pricing. The average sale price for single family detached was $179,645 in August This was 11.7% lower than August 2010 and the 36th year-to-year decline out of the last 45 reporting periods. The average sale price for single family attached for August was $123,900. This is 10.9% below August 2010 and the 11th consecutive double digit percentage year-to-year decline. The year-to-date average sale price is $125,290 and you would have to go back to 1998 to have a lower average annual price. Expired listings for all single family declined year over year in August. This was the 9th consecutive year-to-year decline and the 32nd decline out of the last 34 reporting periods. Withdrawn listings for all single family declined year over year in August. This was the 33rd year-to-year decline out of the last 37 reporting periods. Expired and withdrawn listings should continue to experience year-to-year declines as demand has increased, while inventories have declined. The available inventory at the end of August for all single family was 36,286 housing units. The last time there was less inventory was December 2003 and the last time an August was lower was The depressed economy continues to provide distressed housing inventory, so lower prices will continue to provide great deals for buyers the rest of 2011.

3 Atlanta Employment Pace of Employment Growth 40,000 15,000-10,000-35,000-60,000-85, , , ,000 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Graph Information: As of 8/11 -Note: Graph reflects Bureau of Labor Statistics annual revision. In some cases, previous months numbers have been greatly altered to reflect new estimates. -Monthly numbers represent annual change from previous year s month Trailing 12 Months -Based off Atlanta MSA (See MSA Definition at end) Source: Bureau of Labor

4 45,000 Atlanta Permits Single-Family vs. Multi-Family 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Mult i-family Permit s Single Family Permit s Graph Information: As of 8/11 -Updated monthly Based off Trailing 12 month numbers. -Based Atlanta MSA (See MSA Definition at end). Source: Census Bureau

5 Oct 08-Nov 08-Dec Atlanta Monthly Building Permits Oct 2008 June Jan 09-Feb 09-Mar 09-Apr 09-May 09-Jun 09-Jul 09-Aug 09-Sep 09-Oct 09-Nov 09-Dec 10-Jan 10-Feb 10-Mar 10-Apr 10-May 10-Jun 10-Jul 10-Aug Single Family June year over year up by 30% 10-Sep 10-Oct 10-Nov 10-Dec 11-Jan 11-Feb 11-Mar 11-Apr 11-May 11-Jun

6 Lumber Index Atlanta Building Products Concrete $115 $110 $ Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Lumber Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Concrete Graph Information: As of 9/11 -Lumber Prices based off an index price of what a lumber package would cost to build a 3,200 sq ft house (Left Axis) See Definitions Page for additional information -Source: Magbee Contractors Supply -Concrete data is based off 3000 PSI, per cubic yard (Use Right Axis) -Source: Survey of Purchasing Managers Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 $100 $95 $90 $85 $80 $75

7 Primary Mortgage Market Survey 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-10 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Fed Funds 30 Year 1 Year Arm Graph Information: As of 9/11 -Based off Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey -30 Year and 1 Year rates are derived from the last week of each quarter (Up until 3/07). Then updated monthly. -Fed Funds rate is based off the last day of each quarter (Up until 3/07). Then updated monthly. Source: FreddieMac.com

8 2Q11 1Q11 4Q10 3Q10 2Q10 1Q10 4Q09 3Q09 2Q09 1Q09 4Q08 3Q08 2Q08 1Q08 4Q07 3Q07 2Q07 1Q07 4Q06 3Q06 2Q06 1Q06 4Q05 3Q05 2Q05 ATLANTA HOUSING MARKET 16,500 15,000 13,500 Quarterly Starts and Closings (Move-Ins) Starts up from prior quarter by 33% Closings up from prior quarter by 17% 12,000 10,500 9,000 7,500 6,000 4,500 3,000 1,500 - Townhomes & Detached Housing Combined 1,925 34% 1, % Quarterly Starts Quarterly Closings

9 2Q11 1Q11 4Q10 3Q10 2Q10 1Q10 4Q09 3Q09 2Q09 1Q09 4Q08 3Q08 2Q08 1Q08 4Q07 3Q07 2Q07 1Q07 4Q06 3Q06 2Q06 1Q06 4Q05 3Q05 2Q05 ATLANTA INVENTORY AND MONTHS SUPPLY 40, , mos ,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10, Normal was about 9 months , Finished Vacant Under Construction Housing MOS Graph Information: As of 2Q11 -Represents all of Metro Atlanta attached and detached housing -MOS = Months of Supply

10 Coldwell Banker NRT Development Advisors Graph Information: As of 9/11 Based off 6 largest metro counties Information contained herein deemed accurate but not guaranteed.

11 Coldwell Banker NRT Development Advisors Graph Information: As of 9/11 Based off 6 largest metro counties Information contained herein deemed accurate but not guaranteed.

12 Definitions Atlanta MSA as defined by the 2000 Census (Updated Dec 2006): Barrow, Bartow, Butts, Carroll, Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, Coweta, Dawson, DeKalb, Douglas, Fayette, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett, Haralson, Heard, Henry, Jasper, Lamar, Meriwether, Newton, Paulding, Pickens, Pike, Rockdale, Spalding & Walton Counties Coldwell Banker 6-County Area includes: Fulton, Cobb, Cherokee, Forsyth, Gwinnett, & DeKalb Metrostudy currently gathers data from 22 Metro Atlanta Counties shown to the right: Lumber Information: -Index price is calculated from the sum of the following materials: Plate Stock, Stud Material, Floor Joist, Risers, Bands, Floor Deck, Roof Deck, Wall Brace, Ceiling Joist, Rafters and Miscellaneous Materials. -Based off the amount of material it would take to build a 3,200 square foot house in Atlanta at the current time. Purpose was to show consistency by using the same amount of material over a period of time.

13 2011 BDL Schedule January 19 February 16 March 16 April 20 May 18 June 15 July 20 August 17 September 21 October 19 November 16 December 21 Note: Meetings are held at 8:00 am at the HBA in Tucker

14 Thanks to Our Sources David Ellis Courtney Bayer Commercial Real Estate Eugene James Director, Atlanta Region x111 Don Maxey John Hunt P.O. Box 636 Marietta, GA Office Cell NRTDevelopmentAdvisors.com Bob Romano Executive Vice President Office: Cell: Note: This information is deemed accurate but not guaranteed. It is intended for the personal use of HBA members only.