UDIA WA PROPERTY MARKET STATISTICS

Transcription

1 UDIA WA PROPERTY MARKET STATISTICS FEBRUARY 218 1

2 IN THIS ISSUE KEY TRENDS INDUSTRY UPDATE 3 4 ECONOMY RESIDENTIAL LAND DEVELOPMENT RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY SETTLEMENTS RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SECTOR

3 KEY TRENDS ECONOMY Current Figure M/Q Change 3 M/Q Rolling Av. YOY Change Official Cash Rate Target (RBA) 1.5% (Feb) % (M) 1.5% (M).% Discounted Variable Mortgage Rate (RBA) 4.5% (Feb) bps (M) 4.5% (M) bps Estimated Resident Population - WA 2,58,354m (Jun).2% (Q) 2,574,74m (Q).8% Unemployment Rate - WA (Seasonally Adj.) 6.1 (Jan) 46 bps (M) 5.9 (M) -67 bps Retail Turnover - WA (Original) $2.78 b (Jan) -22.7% (M) $3.12b (M).5% Consumer Price Index - Greater Perth 19.9 (Dec).4% (Q) 19.5 (Q).8% Wage Price Index - WA (Dec).3% (Q) (Q) 1.5% RESIDENTIAL LAND DEVELOPMENT SECTOR Current Figure M/Q Change 3 M/Q Rolling Av. YOY Change Lot Sales (UDIA Land Snapshot ) 335 (Feb 218) 165.9% (M) (M) -8.2% RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SECTOR Current Figure M/Q Change 3 M/Q Rolling Av. YOY Change Dwelling Approvals - WA (Original) 1,385 (Jan) -8.% (M) 1,564 (M) 1.8% Private Sector House Approvals - WA (Original) 958 (Jan) -8.2% (M) 1,22 (M) 1.9% New Dwelling Loans Owner-Occupation - WA (Original) 5,71 (Dec) -9.6% (M) 5,433 (M) -12.7% Dwelling Construction Starts - WA (Original) 4,714 (Sep) 1.6% (Q) 4,751 (Q) -14.3% House Approvals - Greater Perth (Original) 824 (Jan) -6.2% (M),865 (M) 3.4% Multi-Unit Approvals - Greater Perth (Original) 348 (Jan) -18.5% (M) 483 (M) -8.2% RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET Current Figure M/Q Change 3 M/Q Rolling Av. YOY Change Median House Price - Perth (Landgate/REIWA) $525, (Dec) 2.8% (Q) $515, (Q) -.5% House Sales - Perth (Landgate/REIWA) 4,81 (Dec) -.2% (Q) 5,112 (Q) -14.5% Unit Sales - Perth (Landgate/REIWA) 1,142 (Dec) 5.4% (Q) 1,18 (Q) -7.3% House and Unit Listings - Perth (REIWA) 13,8 (Dec).3% (Q) 13,383 (Q) -5.7% Dwelling Loans Owner-Occupation - WA (Original) 3,575 (Dec) -12.7% (M) 3,915 (M) -8.8% Established Dwelling Loans Owner-Occupation - WA (Original) 2,512 (Dec) -12.1% (M) 2,727 (M) -9.6% FHOG Applications - WA (Original) 489 (Jan) -8.6% (M) 54 (M) -3.9% Investment Housing Loans - WA (Original) $635.5m (Dec) -3.5% (M) $641.2m (M) -1.7% REIWA Average Selling Days - Perth 63 (Dec) -13.7% (Q) 69. (Q) -3.1% Residential Rental Market Current Figure M/Q Change 3 M/Q Rolling Av. YOY Change REIWA Median Rent - Perth 355 (Dec) 1.4% (Q) 355 (Q) -6.6% REIWA Vacancy Rate - Perth 5.5% (Dec) -14 bps (Q) 6.6% (Q) -9 bps 3

4 UDIA WA INDUSTRY UPDATE CHRIS GREEN Director Policy & Research While the figures in this month s Urban Intelligence Report continue to reflect the economic downturn that has gripped WA for the last few years, there is a positive outlook forecast according to highly regarded Deloitte Access Economist and Reserve Bank Board Member Professor Ian Harper. Indeed, as can be seen in this report, monthly land snapshot figures for February reflect significant growth in sales and the median lot price has increased 2.3% month on month to $222,985, which is also a 4.8% increase on the same time last year. Speaking at the UDIA WA State Conference recently, Professor Harper advised the audience that it was time for WA to set sails for growth as he believes the state has turned a corner after several years of economic downturn. UDIA WA In particular, Professor Harper predicted WA s Economic growth to sit at around 1% throughout 218 and move upward toward 3% by 219/2. This is not huge growth but is sustainable moving forward. This positive trend is reinforced by global market conditions, which are the strongest in years with growth synchronised across the major markets including Europe; the US; Japan; and China which is continuing its remarkable run of expansion. Despite the unemployment rate rising slightly in January to 6.1% in WA, Professor Harper says that overall the labour market has shown positive signs over the last 15 months and that trend is expected to continue as broader growth strengthens. In this month s report, we can see positive signs reflected in the Wage Price Index, up 1.5% year on year and the consumer price index up.8% for the year. Professor Harper also highlighted the importance of diversification of the WA economy. With the resource construction boom well and truly over, WA must focus on alternative streams of revenue to boost growth and move away from such a strong reliance on the resources sector to hold up the economy. Investment in infrastructure is critical to boosting the economy and attracting more people to the state, along with moving to a more knowledge based economy. In terms of infrastructure investment, a more strategic approach to infrastructure planning and provision in WA was also reinforced by another presentation at the conference. Lance Glare, from the Department of Premier and Cabinet, discussed the government s proposed framework for the establishment of Infrastructure WA. UDIA has been advocating for many years for an independent body like Infrastructure WA to be established, to ensure that there is a proper assessment of the State s long term infrastructure requirements, and a clear plan that informs the allocation of the limited public funds that are available. UDIA is also supportive of more Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) to fund major infrastructure projects in the state. A position reinforced by Professor Harper, saying that alternative and more innovative means of funding infrastructure would take the pressure off State debt. In terms of government funds and revenue, Professor Harper said that the state government is relying too heavily on sources that are linked to volatile commodity prices, with payroll tax and iron ore royalties alone accounting for 24% of general government revenue in WA. Reliance on payroll tax, royalties and transfer duties is much lower in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia. One of the primary ways that Professor Harper considered ensuring that government revenue is less volatile, is to reform property taxes. In particular, moving away from stamp duty and replacing it with a broad based land tax system as recommended in the Re:Think Tax Discussion Paper released in 215. UDIA believes this kind of system could potentially be more fair and equitable and would remove artificial barriers to those wanting to move home, such as downsizers moving to more appropriate housing, who are currently staying put due to the high cost of stamp duty. Overall, Professor Harper s presentation provided much food for thought with regard to how WA can move forward and embrace new opportunities for future growth. It is encouraging to see signs of positive growth in the WA economy and these green shoots are having a flow on effect to the property market. We expect that over the coming months, the Urban Intelligence Report will reflect increasing growth and positivity across the broader economy and the residential property and construction sectors. 4

5 ECONOMY Key Points of Interest Western Australia s (WA) unemployment rate for January lifted 46 basis points (bps) from the previous month to 6.1%, 67bps down from the same time last year and slightly above the national rate of 6.%. In January the number of employed persons in WA fell 2.5% over the month to 1.32 million, but remained 2.% higher than the corresponding month in 217. This comes off the back of a recorded high in employed persons in December 217. The WA state participation rate fell 147bps in January to 67.7%, 33bps higher than at the same time last year and 2.59 percentage points above the national participation rate of 65.1%. In December the Wage Price Index (WPI) for WA recorded 1.5% annual growth, the highest since the Sept-16 quarter. While this remains far below the 4.8% peak annual growth in June-12, a sense of optimism can be drawn from the RBA s statement that the rate of wage growth appears to have troughed (here). Retail turnover for WA recorded.5% annual growth in January, increasing to $2.7 billion, following a 1.2% year-onyear (YoY) decline in December. This figure makes up 1.7% of national retail turnover for January ($25.9 billion). Employed Persons (,) Home Loan Rates (% p.a.) 14 8 Labour Market, WA (ABS) Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Employed Persons (Original) Unemployment Rate (Seas. Adj.) Unemployment Rate (Original) Source: ABS 622., T8 Mortgage Rates, Australia 9.5 Standard Variable 8.5 Discounted Variable 7.5 Three Year Fixed Feb-8 Feb-9 Feb-1 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Source: RBA, F5 Unemployment Rate (%) Year-on-year change in Index (calculated quarterly) Consumer Price Index (ABS) Dec-7 Dec-8 Dec-9 Dec-1 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec CPI - Perth (Housing) YOY Change CPI - Perth (All Groups) YOY Change CPI - Australia (Housing) YOY Change CPI - Australia (All Groups) YOY Change Source: ABS 641, T 1, 5 & Retail Turnover (ABS).11 Retail Turnowver Growth (p.a) Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan YoY WA (Original) YoY Australia (Original) YoY WA (Seas. Adj.) YoY Australia (Seas. Adj.) Source: ABS 851, T3 5

6 Key Points of Interest RESIDENTIAL LAND DEVELOPMENT SECTOR In February, UDIA Land Snapshot survey s total lot sales were buoyant with a 165.9% month-on-month (MoM) increase, but remained 8.2% below figures from the same time last year. This follows two months of subdued figures over the Christmas and New Year period. The monthly lift in sales was continued throughout the price categories, which all increased from last month s numbers with: a 137.9% increase MoM for sales $2, (and below); a 183.8% MoM rise for sales between $2,1- $28,; and a 217.4% MoM increase for sales over $28,. The median lot price was also up 2.3% MoM to $222,985, a 4.8% increase on the same time last year. Weekly category lot sales UDIA Land Snapshot Survey - Lot Sales 1 2 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 $2, or under Rolling 12 Month Average $2,1 - $28, Rolling 12 Month Average $28, plus Rolling 12 Month Average Total Sales Rolling 12 Month Average Total weekly lot sales Source: UDIA Land Snapshot Survey Monthly vacant land settlements by metropolitan corridor for November, 217 (Landgate) Monthly Vacant Land Settlements by Corridor Nov-17 Vacant Land Regions Settlements Median Price Median Lot Size North-East Metro 4 $ 275, 375 North-West Metro 69 $ 285, 377 South-East Metro 35 $ 24, 358 South-West Metro 58 $ 26, 357 Peel 27 $ 25, 523 Top five suburbs for vacant land settlements for the three months to November, 217 (Landgate) TOP SUBURBS FOR VACANT LAND SETTLEMENTS Three months to 3 Nov Settlements Median Price Median Size 1 BRABHAM 54 $245, PIARA WATERS 5 $273, AVELEY 45 $226, BALDIVIS 34 $187, BYFORD 29 $19, 384. Vacant Land Settlements/month Median lot price per month (thousands) Median lot size/month $35 $25 $ Greater Perth Corridor Vacant Lot Settlements North East North West South East South West Peel Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Greater Perth Corridor Median Prices North East North West South East South West Peel Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Greater Perth Corridor Median Lot Size North East North West South East South West Peel Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Note: Settlement figures on this page are based on Landgate data available at the time of publication and may not represent all settlements during the period. 6

7 RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY SETTLEMENTS Median Price/Settlements Greater Perth $58, $56, $54, $52, $5, $6, $5, $4, $3, Median Price Detached and Non-Detached Dwellings: Greater Perth 1 $48, $2, 5 $46, $1, $44, Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Median Price Detached Houses Settlements Detached Houses $- Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Median Price Detached Houses Median Price Non-Detached Dwellings $34, $32, $3, $28, $26, $24, $22, $2, $18, $16, Dec-15 Vacant Land Settlements, Median Price: Greater Perth and FHOG Applications Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Median Price Vacant Land Settlement Vacant Land First Home Buyer Grant Applications - new build Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec Source: Landgate/UDIA/Treasury (WA) Regional Dwelling Settlements December 217 Non-Detached Housing Wheatbelt Non-Detached Housing South West Non-Detached Housing Pilbara Non-Detached Housing Mid West Non-Detached Housing Great Southern Non-Detached Housing Goldfields Esperance Non-Detached Housing Gascoyne Detached Housing Wheatbelt Detached Housing South West Detached Housing Pilbara Detached Housing Mid West Detached Housing Great Southern Detached Housing Goldfields Esperance Detached Housing Gascoyne Vacant Land Wheatbelt Vacant Land South West Vacant Land Pilbara Vacant Land Mid West Vacant Land Great Southern Vacant Land Goldfields Esperance Vacant Land Gascoyne Regional Land Settlements December TOP SUBURBS FOR MEDIUM DENSITY SETTLEMENTS Three months to 3 Nov Settlements Median Price Median Size 1 EAST PERTH 92 $615, INNALOO 87 $49, SCARBOROUGH 77 $535, COMO 65 $51, MAYLANDS 64 $393, TOP SUBURBS FOR DETACHED HOUSING SETTLEMENTS Three months to 3 Nov Settlements Median Price Median Size 1 CANNING VALE 89 $545, BALDIVIS 77 $45, THORNLIE 75 $38, HALLS HEAD 61 $43, 7. 5 ELLENBROOK 61 $386, Source: Landgate/UDIA Top suburbs for detached housing and medium density settlements over the three months to Nov 217. Note: Settlement figures on this page are based on Landgate data available at the time of publication and may not represent all settlements during the period. 7

8 RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET Key Points of Interest 4 In December, total owner-occupier housing finance commitments for WA fell 9.6% month-on-month (MoM) to 5,71, 12.7% lower than at the same time last year. Included within the total December owner-occupier housing finance commitments: commitments for the construction of dwellings decreased 12.6% MoM and 5.8% year-on-year (YoY) to 872; commitments for the purchase of new dwellings were down 19.4% MoM and 11.6% YoY to 191; and commitments for the purchase of established dwellings also fell 8.4% MoM and 14.2% YoY to 4,8. The number of dwellings financed by first home buyers (FHB) in December fell by 9.3% MoM to 1,244, but remained 2.5% higher than in Dec-16. Meanwhile, non-fhb recorded a similar drop in the number of dwellings financed, falling 9.7% MoM to 3,827, a decrease of 16.8% YoY. Average loan sizes recorded for FHB and non-fhb in December were $31,5 (-2.5% MoM, -2.6% YoY) and $357,6 (-2.5% MoM, +2.8% YoY) respectively. WA dwelling finance for investment housing fell 3.5% MoM to $635.6 million in December, a fall of 1.7% YoY. National figures also recorded a decrease of 9.4% MoM and 14.% YoY to $11.8 billion. However, this comes off the back of a three-month high for WA and a five-month high for Australia in November. Dwelling Finance, WA (ABS) 1 WA Dwelling Finance ($m/month) Owner Occupier Loan Commitments (monthly) Owner Occupier Housing Finance, WA (ABS) 12 Construction of dwellings (WA) Purchase of new dwellings (WA) 1 Refinancing of established dwellings (WA) Purchase of established dwellings (WA) Total housing finance commitments (WA) Dec-7 Dec-8 Dec-9 Dec-1 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dwelling Finance for Investment Housing (ABS) Source: ABS 569., T1a (Original Data) 165 WA Dwelling Finance for Investment Housing 16 WA Rolling 3 month average AU Dwelling Finance for Investment Housing AU Rolling 3 month average Dec-7 Dec-8 Dec-9 Dec-1 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Perth Metropolitan Quarterly Update AU Dwelling Finance ($m/month) Source: ABS 5671., T15 & 23 (Original Data) 6 1 Average Home Loan Amount ($thousands) Home Loan Commitments Median Price (quarterly) Dwelling/Land Sales (Quarterly) Dec-7 Dec-8 Dec-9 Dec-1 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 FHB: Average Loan Size FHB: Dwellings Financed Non-FHB: Average Loan Size Non-FHB: Dwellings Financed Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Houses sold Units Sold Land Sold Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Source: ABS 569.,T9b (Original Data) Median House Price Median Unit Price Median Land Price Source: REIWA 6 Perth Metropolitan Rent (REIWA) 1% 2 Residential Property Listings, Perth Metro (REIWA) 5 18 Median House Rent (Quarterly) % % Quarterly Variance & Vacancy Rate (%) House and Unit Listings (Quarterly) Quarterly variance - Median House Rent Vacancy rate Median House Rent -5% Dec-7 Dec-8 Dec-9 Dec-1 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Source: REIWA 2 Source: REIWA 8

9 RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SECTOR Key Points of Interest Building approvals for houses in WA fell 6.1% in January to 1,4, but lifted 2.7% from the same time in 217. Of this total, 82.5% were situated within Greater Perth; which saw a similar 6.2% decrease in house building approvals over the month to sit at 824, but also increased 3.4% year-on-year (YoY). In January, building approvals for dwellings (exc. houses) fell 12.6% month-on-month (MoM) for WA (381) and 18.5% MoM for Greater Perth (348). However, both regions lifted moderately from the same time last year, increasing 32.8% for WA and 24.3% for Greater Perth. This continues the positive YoY rise in approvals exhibited in figures for the December quarter, which had a 1.9% YoY increase following six consecutive quarters of decline. The value of residential building jobs for houses fell 1.5% in January to $274.9 million, but was 1.2% up YoY. Meanwhile, the value of building jobs for dwellings (exc. houses) was also down 33.2% MoM to $87.1 million, 7.4% higher than in Jan-17. The total value of WA new residential building jobs fell 14.2% in January to $422.9 million, but lifted 14.7% YoY. The monthly decrease in this total value of building jobs was contained within those for new construction, which fell 16.8% MoM to $378.1 million, but increased 13.9% YoY. Also forming part of the total was the value of building jobs for alterations and additions (including conversions), which rose 15.2% MoM and 21.6% YoY to $44.8 million. 1,5 1, Building Approvals (dwellings/month) Residential Construction (dwellings per quarter) FHOG Applications & Payments for New Dwellings Jan-28 Jan-21 Jan-212 Jan-214 Jan-216 Jan-218 Residential Construction, WA (ABS) Houses Commenced Houses Completed Dwellings Commenced Dwellings Completed FHOG Paid for New Dwellings Building Approvals, WA & Greater Perth (ABS) FHOG Paid 3 Month Rolling Average FHOG Applications for New Dwellings FHOG Applications 3 Month Rolling Average Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Source: Treasury WA Houses WA Other Dwellings Perth Houses Perth Other Dwellings Source: ABS 8731., T5 & 1 3 Sep-27 Sep-29 Sep-211 Sep-213 Sep-215 Sep-217 Source: ABS 8752., T34 & T38 (Original Data) Alterations & Additions ($m/month) Value of Building Jobs, WA (ABS) 1 $14 $12 8 $1 6 $8 $6 4 $4 2 $2 $ Jan-28 Jan-21 Jan-212 Jan-214 Jan-216 Jan-218 New Building Jobs ($m/month) Value of Building Jobs ($m/month) $7, $6, $5, $4, $3, $2, $1, Value of House/Other WA Residential Building Jobs (ABS) Houses Other Residential Alterations & Additions, Including Conversions Alterations & Additions, Including Conversions (Trend) $ New Construction New Construction (Trend) Source: ABS 8731., T34 Source:ABS 8731., Table 47 9

10 Urban Development Institute of Australia (UDIA) WA P: (8) E: Disclaimer While the data has been collected with due care for the purpose of reporting property market and general economic trends, no responsibility can be taken regarding its accuracy and individuals should conduct their own specific research before making any decisions. Information provided in this publication should not be taken as a guarantee of specific future movements in the market, but rather as an indication of historical market trends. All or part of this document may not be reproduced, published or included in any report without the approval of the UDIA (WA Division) as to the form and context in which it will appear. 1