Target Market Analysis - Background

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2 Target Market Analysis - Background Ø A primary tool for Placemaking analysis Ø Qualitative measure of market potential Ø Use of Cluster Analysis to determine likely target markets (ESRI: Tapestry & Experian: Mosaic) Ø Useful qualitative tool, when used properly

3 Weakness of Target Market Analysis Ø Best used for large cities and metropolitan areas Ø Set of assumptions are required regarding definitions and sensitivity Ø Relative value of individual Placemaking assets is subjective Ø Very difficult to use in conjunction with standard demographic data sets

4 Example of TMA-related misuse Consultant in question hired by MSHDA to provide countywide TMA reports across most of Michigan in 2014 Ø Asked to identify all Placemaking assets and providing rankings Ø Asked to estimate market demand potential for each county and available submarkets Ø Asked to separate demand results by product type and income band

5 Issues with the TMA model 1) Cannot provide accurate demand forecasts within a TMA report: The clusters are not accurate enough descriptions of likely target markets for specific product types Poor methodology to use TMA segments in combination with U.S. Census data Too much overlap within the TMA segments to separate results by tenure or AMI

6 Issues with the TMA model 2) Overemphasis on the value of Placemaking assets to justify recommendations Too much Build it and They Will Come narrative No comparison to adjacent communities to provide context

7 Issues with the TMA model 3) Misleading results cannot be supported with the end results that are detrimental to the community Misuse of local resources, efforts, and community support Questions regarding community development goals Private sector/nonprofits pursue opportunities that are not realistic

8 Example: Benzie County TMA TMA report indicated five-year demand for up to 600 rental units Standard methodology demonstrates support for no more than 60 units Experienced developers ignored the results and question the abilities of local leaders Local nonprofit spent time and $$$ - based on the TMA results

9 Suggestions: NCHMA statement on the proper use of TMA within our Model Content Standards/Definitions Members be aware of the misuse of such reports with our clients and local/regional development partners Encourage the authors of these reports to learn more about NCHMA methods and join the organization

10 Illustrative Map (not a real deal)

11 Background on Fair Market Rents Generally calculated as 40 percentile of rents for movers in the last 15 months. Single metro-wide standard

12 Background on Small Area FMRs Attempts to address flawed nature of FMR Localize Fair Market Rents via ZIP codes A way for a housing choice voucher (HCV) to move to a higher opportunity zone

13 Case Study 1 Washington, D.C. Small Area FMRs

14 Case Study 2 San Diego, Calif. Small Area FMRs

15 Areas Postponed

16 Areas Postponed Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Ga. Bergen-Passaic, N.J Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, N.C.-SC Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, Ill. Colorado Springs, Colo. Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, Fla. Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas Gary, Ind. Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn. Jackson, Miss. Jacksonville, Fla. Monmouth-Ocean, N.J. North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota, Fla. Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Fla. Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA- NJ-DE-MD Pittsburgh, Pa. Sacramento Arden-Arcade Roseville, Calif. San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, Calif. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla. Urban Honolulu, Hawaii Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.- Va.-Md. West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach, Fla.

17 HUD Conducts Study Net loss of units potentially available to HCV holders Presented administrative burden on PHAs

18 HUD Suspends to Program Through 2019 Program still in effect for Dallas metro area Final review from HUD due in 2018 PHAs are allowed to opt-in

19 Questions? David Grubman

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