California s Housing Market: How Much Froth Is Out There?
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- Britton Murphy
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1
2 California s Housing Market: How Much Froth Is Out There?
3 Conference Underwriter
4 Polling Question: What Will Most Likely Occur to California s Housing Prices in the Next 2 Years? 1. Bubble Bursts 15% or Greater Decline 2. Prices Decline by 1 to 14% 3. Prices Remain Constant 4. Price Increases Moderate to Single-Digits 5. Price Increases Continue in the Double-Digits
5 Polling Question: Which Factor Will Have the Most Influential Impact on the State s Housing Market? 1. Direction of Interest Rates 2. Job Growth 3. Price of Oil 4. Supply Constraints
6 Polling Question: Which California Region is Most Vulnerable to a Slowdown in Housing Prices? 1. Central Valley 2. Bay Area 3. Los Angeles / Inland Empire 4. Orange County 5. San Diego
7 Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes United States US$ Thousands 220 Median Sales Price (L) Median Sales Price - % Change (R) Percent Change, Year Ago
8 Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes California US$ Thousands 500 Median Sales Price (L) Median Sales Price - % Change (R) Percent Change, Year Ago
9 Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes San Francisco San Mateo Redwood City US$ Thousands 800 Median Sales Price (L) Median Sales Price - % Change (R) Percent Change, Year Ago
10 Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes Oakland Fremont Hayward US$ Thousands 700 Median Sales Price (L) Median Sales Price - % Change (R) Percent Change, Year Ago
11 Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes San Jose Sunnyvale Santa Clara US$ Thousands 800 Median Sales Price (L) Median Sales Price - % Change (R) Percent Change, Year Ago
12 Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes Fresno US$ Thousands 350 Median Sales Price (L) Median Sales Price - % Change (R) Percent Change, Year Ago
13 Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes Los Angeles Long Beach Glendale US$ Thousands 450 Median Sales Price (L) Median Sales Price - % Change (R) Percent Change, Year Ago
14 Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes Santa Ana Anaheim Irvine US$ Thousands 700 Median Sales Price (L) Median Sales Price - % Change (R) Percent Change, Year Ago
15 Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes Riverside San Bernardino Ontario US$ Thousands 400 Median Sales Price (L) Median Sales Price - % Change (R) Percent Change, Year Ago
16 Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes San Diego Carlsbad San Marcos US$ Thousands 600 Median Sales Price (L) Median Sales Price - % Change (R) 500 Percent Change, Year Ago
17 Most Expensive Markets Coldwell Banker Home Price Comparison, 2005 Price Market (In US$, Millions) La Jolla, CA Santa Monica, CA Beverly Hills, CA Santa Barbara, CA Palo Alto, CA Newport Beach, CA San Mateo, CA San Francisco, CA San Jose, CA Greenwich, CT 1.268
18 Least Expensive Markets Coldwell Banker Home Price Comparison, 2005 Price Market (In US$, Ths.) Killeen, TX Minot, ND Beckley, WV Arlington, TX Billings, MT Tulsa, OK Parkersburg, WV Forth Worth, TX Yankton, SD Grayling/Roscommon, MI 149.6
19 Home Prices in California Top 10 CA Metros, Ranked by 5-Yr Percent Change Percent Change Percent Change Rank Metro Area 1Yuba City 26% 122% 2 Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta 27% 122% 3Merced 27% 118% 4 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos 25% 118% 5Modesto 26% 118% 6 Salinas 31% 117% 7 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario 29% 116% 8 Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville 26% 113% 9Fresno 27% 111% 10 Stockton 28% 111%
20 Strongest Housing States Average Annual Percent Change in the Last 5 Years <5% 5-10% >10%
21 Home Price Appreciation Ranked by Percent Change Over the Last Five Years State 5 Year % Change 1 Year % Change California Rhode Island Nevada Hawaii Florida Maryland New Jersey New Hampshire Massachusetts U.S
22 Price-to-Rent Ratios Major Metro Areas, 2005 Average Condo Price US$ Average Annual Rent US$ Price-to-Rent Ratio Metro San Francisco 697,301 18, New York City 654,570 17, San Diego 431,064 14, Phoenix 234,400 8, Seattle 268,786 9, Baltimore 309,090 11, Los Angeles 433,135 15, Washington, D.C. 356,715 13, Miami 276,904 10, Tampa 227,096 9,060 25
23 Absorption Rates of Apartments United States Percent
24 Percent of Apartment Sales to Condo Converters As of st Quarter Market Percent Miami, FL 81 Broward, FL 69 Palm Beach, FL 58 San Diego, CA 58 Las Vegas, NV 48 Boston, MA 46 DC/VA suburbs 42 Jacksonville, FL 40 Orlando, FL 40 Sacramento, CA 38
25 Housing Affordability Rates 1995 August 2005 Percent
26 Homeownership Rates CA vs. U.S. Percent California United States
27 Homeowner Vacancy Rates CA vs. U.S. Percent California United States
28 New Home Median Price CA vs. U.S. US$ Thousands 350 California United States
29 New Single-Family Homes Sales Quarterly, United States Thousands
30 Housing Starts California Thousands Level (L) Growth Rate (R) Percent Change, Year Ago
31 Building Permits California Share of U.S. Percent
32 Residential Construction California, As Share of Total Construction Percent
33 Mortgage Rates Fixed vs. Adjustable Percent Yr Fixed 1-Month LIBOR 1-Yr Adjustable
34 Household Mortgage Type United States, Percent with a Mortgage ARM, 23.2% Fixed-Rate Mortgage, 76.8%
35 Mortgage Originations United States US$ Billions Refinance Originations Purchase Originations
36 Refinance Share of Mortgage Applications United States Percent
37 Median Appreciation of Refinanced Property United States Percent
38 ARM Share of Mortgage Applications United States Percent
39 ARM Lending is Much Greater in the Jumbo Market United States ARM Share of Conventional, Percent Conforming Jumbo
40 Interest-Only Mortgages on the Rise CA vs. U.S., As Percent of Total Mortgages Percent California United States Feb. 2005
41 Top 10 Metro Areas for Interest-Only Loans As Percent of Total Mortgages, 2004 Percent Atlanta Denver San Jose Seattle Ventura San Diego San Francisco Oakland Phoenix Orange County
42 Subprime Loans Percent with ARMs and Interest-Only Payments Percent
43 Subprime Loans Percent with Full Data on Borrower s Income and Assets Percent
44 Gains in Home Equity Buyers of Existing Single-Family Homes US$ Thousands 500 Equity Sales Price Loan Amount Mar-05
45 Loan-to-Value Ratio Buyers of Existing Single-Family Homes Percent
46 Loan-to-Value Distribution for First Mortgages By Dollar Volume, Second Half of 2004 Percent > to to to to to 60
47 Median House Price vs. Median Household Income California Index 1990= Median House Price Median Household Income
48 Ratio of Median House Price to Median Household Income California Rank Metro Area 2000Q1 2005Q1 1 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville, CA Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, FL Worcester, MA New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ Baltimore-Towson, MD Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL Boston-Quincy, MA Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice, FL West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, FL Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA
49 Housing Cost Burdens Top 10 States, As Percent of All Homeowners Rank State Spending >30% of Income on Housing Spending >50% of Income on Housing 1 California Hawaii Washington Florida Nevada New York Massachusetts New Jersey Oregon Colorado United States
50 Homebuyer Income Gap Index nd Quarter Median Home Price Median Household Income Qualifying Income Area Income Gap San Francisco Bay Area $726,920 $68,140 $170,370 $102,230 Southern CA $510,000 $52,310 $119,530 $67,220 Central Valley $344,330 $41,250 $80,700 $39,450 California $530,430 $53,840 $124,320 $70,480
51 C.A.R. Housing Affordability Index % of Households Able to Afford Median-Priced Home Area Aug. 04 (%) Aug. 05 (%) Change (%) Central Valley Los Angeles San Francisco Bay Area San Diego Orange County California United States
52 Biggest Housing Bubble Markets According to PMI Insurance Group* Rank Metro 1 Boston, MA 2 Nassau-Suffolk, NY 3 San Diego, CA 4 San Jose, CA 5 Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA 6 Oakland, CA 7 Cambridge, MA 8 San Francisco, CA 9 Providence, RI 10 Riverside-San Bernardino, CA *Uses labor market data, median incomes and mortgage costs
53 Biggest Housing Bubble Markets According to Rank National City* Rank Metro 1 Santa Barbara, CA 2 Salinas, CA 3 Naples, FL 4 Riverside-San Bernardino, CA 5 Merced, CA 6 Stockton, CA 7 Port St. Lucie, FL 8 Madera, CA 9 Napa, CA 10 Medford, OR *Uses incomes, mortgage data and space constraints
54 Biggest Housing Bubble Markets According Credit Suisse First Boston* Rank Metro 1 Fresno, CA 2 Las Vegas, NV 3 Los Angeles, CA 4 Riverside-San Bernardino, CA 5 Phoenix, AZ 6 Bakersfield, CA 7 Sarasota, FL 8 Sacramento, CA 9 Jacksonville, FL 10 Naples, FL *Uses interest-only loan data, price trend, investor activity, job growth and supply constraints
55 Growth in Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Home 5-Year Gain Major Market Percent San Diego 137 Los Angeles 118 Miami 105 Las Vegas 103 Wash., D.C. 97 New York 94 San Francisco Bay 78 Boston 44
56 California Housing is Through the Roof Real House Price Growth, 4-Quarter MA Percent Change, Year Ago Realtor OFHEO
57 Exotic Mortgage Lending is Surging... Share of Non-Conforming Mortgage Originations Option ARM IO ARM '01 '02 '03 '04 '05H1
58 ...Especially in These Markets Interest-Only ARM Share of Originations, 2005H1 San Diego Bay Area Denver Sacramento Los Angeles Modesto Riverside Atlanta Las Vegas
59 Housing is Overvalued in These Metro Areas NAR Median Existing House Price Index, 2005Q2 Seattle Tacoma Portland Salem Vallejo Sacramento Reno Santa Rosa San Francisco Stockton Oakland Modesto San Jose Fresno Denver Salinas Visalia Las Vegas Bakersfield Santa Barbara Riverside Oxnard- Los Angeles Phoenix Ventura Santa Ana San Diego Tucson Honolulu Madison Minneapolis Milwaukee Lake County Chicago Grand Rapids Lansing Detroit Asheville Tampa Sarasota Cape Coral Allentown Warren New York Charleston Deltona Orlando Boston, Cambridge, Essex Worcester Providence Nassau Newark Edison Baltimore Bethesda Washington DC West Palm Beach Ft. Lauderdale Miami Highly overpriced > 2 SD from historic average Overpriced > 1 SD from historic average
60 The Home has Become a Cash Machine Gross Equity Extraction, $Billions 800 Home Equity Borrowing Cash-Out Refi Capital Gains '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05H1
61 ...Particularly in California Mortgage Equity Withdrawal as Share of Disposable Income, '05, U.S. = 7% Vallejo 21% Santa Rosa 15% San Francisco 14% Stockton 22% San Jose 15% Sacramento 19% Salinas 20% Riverside 19% Santa Barbara 17% Oxnard- Ventura Los Angeles 10% 19% Santa Ana San Diego 18% 17% Greater than U.S. Close to U.S. Less than U.S.
62 Housing is Key to the Job Market... Housing Employment Share of Total Employment Percent United States California Florida Virginia
63 ...in the Most Active Housing Markets Share of Job Growth Due to Growth in Housing Related Jobs,'05q2-'03q2, U.S. = 40% Greater than U.S. Less than U.S.
64 Housing Affordability is Affecting Migration Patterns... Net Migration from Los Angeles Bakersfield Phoenix Las Vegas Riverside '00 '01 '02 '03 '04
65 ...in High-Priced Areas Net Migration from San Francisco Reno Phoenix Las Vegas Stockton '00 '01 '02 '03 '04
66 A Reason for Some Optimism Difference Between Housing Supply and Demand, '05q2 Overbuilt Overbuilding Not Overbuilt
67 Home Sales Will Weaken First... Existing Home Sales, Thousands '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
68 ...Followed by House Price Growth... Median Existing House Price Growth '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
69 ...and Finally, Housing Starts Housing Starts, Thousands Multifamily Single Family '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
70 Median Sale Price of Houses in Los Angeles and Orange County $650,000 $600,000 $617,000 $550,000 Median Sale Price $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $494,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $259,000 $248, Year Orange County Los Angeles County
71 CAR Affordability Index 2000
72 CAR Affordability Index 2004
73 Effects of Different Financing on Average Mortgage Payment Orange County $4,000 $3,500 Monthly House Payment (Fixed Rate Mortgage) Monthly Rent or Payment $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 Variable Rate Mortgage Interest Only Mortgage $1,000 $500 Average Monthly Rent (Total Orange County) $ Year
74 10 Year Growth in Households for CA Counties ( )
75 Expected 5 Year Growth in HH s for CA Counties ( )
76 Expected 5 Year Growth in HH s for CA Counties ( )
77 Residential Supply and Demand for Key Southern California Counties Los Angeles County 80,000 70,000 60,000 Residential Permits Annual Household Growth 50,000 Number of Households 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000-20, Year
78 Residential Supply and Demand for Key Southern California Counties Orange County 40,000 35,000 Residential Permits Annual Household Growth 30,000 Number of Households 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,000-10, Year
79 Residential Supply and Demand for Key Southern California Counties Riverside and San Bernardino Counties 80,000 70,000 60,000 Residential Permits Annual Household Growth Number of Households 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000-20, Year
80 National Delinquency Rate Percent of Loans Past Due 90 Days Percent
81 $500K Interest-Only ARM Loan 30-Years with Initial 5-Year Fixed Rate I.O. Period Period Monthly Payment Monthly Increase Percent Increase First 5 Years at 5% $2, After 5 Years at 5% $2,923 $840 40% After 5 Years at 7% $3,533 $1,450 70%
82 Existing Home Sales vs. Median Sales Price Single-Family, United States US$ Thousands 220 Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Fam. (L) Existing Home Sales (R) Millions
83 New Single-Family Home Sales Monthly, United States Thousands
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