RESIDENTIAL MARKET REPORT DECEMBER QUARTER 2017
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1 RESIDENTIAL MARKET REPORT DECEMBER QUARTER 2017 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY RESIDENTIAL LAND MARKET - VICTORIA The established house and vacant land markets across Greater Melbourne continued to remain buoyant in December quarter Greater Melbourne s median house price of $821,000 in December quarter 2017 represented solid growth of 6.9% from the corresponding quarter a year earlier. The growth corridors within Melbourne, Geelong and Surf Coast recorded 5,759 gross lot sales in December quarter 2017 (-1.6% from December quarter 2016). The median land price across Greater Melbourne s growth corridors was $303,000 in December quarter 2017, equating to growth of 5.2% from September quarter 2017 and 28.5% from December quarter Further highlighting the strength of new house demand that underpinned this solid price growth was that it coincided with the median lot size across Greater Melbourne s growth corridors shrinking by 3.4% from the previous quarter to 416m 2 in December quarter ECONOMIC UPDATE Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to September 2017 increased by 2.24% on annual GDP to September 2016, with public investment spending and exports the key drivers of economic activity. Growth in the Victorian economy outperformed the national average, with annual State Final Demand (SFD) at September 2017 being 4.70% higher than the same period at June The RBA has maintained the cash rate at a historical low of 1.50% through December quarter FINANCE AND BUILDING ACTIVITY - VICTORIA Improving economic conditions and strong population growth in Victoria, combined with historical low borrowing costs, has underpinned robust owner occupier demand through The number of loans for the construction of new dwellings or newly erected dwellings that have not previously been occupied during calendar 2017 of 32,363 dwellings, was 10.9% higher than the previous corresponding twelve month period. In Victoria, there were 37,048 new detached houses approved during calendar 2017, reflecting an annual increase of 1.8%. $ sqm $ m Lot Sales Lot Prices Lot Sizes Victorian Economy Performance Finance Activity Detached Building Approvals
2 VACANT LAND MARKET - VICTORIA GROSS SALES The number of land sales recorded by the RPM Research Division since the middle of 2014 reflects an exceptionally strong market. In particular, gross sales were just below 7,000 lots in both June quarter and September quarter in The growth corridor regions in Melbourne and Geelong have recorded 5,759 gross lot sales in December GROSS SALES Gross Sales 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 quarter 2017, which represented a slight decline of 1.6% from the previous corresponding quarter. LAND PRICES AND LOT SIZES The median price of all vacant lots sold within the growth corridors across Greater Melbourne (excluding Geelong and Surf Coast) was $303,000 in December quarter 2017, representing growth of 5.2% from the previous quarter and a substantial 28.5% from December quarter Significantly, this was the tenth consecutive quarter that annual growth of Greater Melbourne s quarterly median land price has accelerated. Further highlighting the strengthening of new house demand through this period, has been the decline in the median lot size for vacant lots sold within Greater Melbourne s growth corridors, which in December quarter 2017 was 416m 2. This was 3.4% smaller than the median lot size in the previous quarter, and 8.8% below the median lot size in June quarter 2015, where annual median lot price growth has continually increased since. City of Casey recorded the highest median lot price of $357,000 in December quarter However, more notably, the median lot price in four other municipalities of Cardinia, Whittlesea, Hume and Wyndham all surpassed $300,000 during December quarter Moorabool Shire contained the least expensive median lot price of $192,500, and was also the only growth corridor with a median lot price of below $200,000. Interestingly, the Surf Coast median lot price of $329,000 in December quarter 2017 was more expensive than the corresponding figure for Greater Melbourne, which is likely WESTERN CORRIDOR Median Land Price $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 Wyndham (LHS) Melton (LHS) Moorabool (LHS) Wyndham (RHS) Melton (RHS) Moorabool (RHS) NORTHERN CORRIDOR Median Land Price $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 Hume (LHS) Mitchell (LHS) Whittlesea (LHS) Hume (RHS) Mitchell (RHS) Whittlesea (RHS) SOUTH EASTERN CORRIDOR South East Corridor Median Land Price $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $ Median Lot Size (sqm) Median Lot Size (sqm) Median Lot Size (sqm) attributed to the region s attraction to changeover buyers. All Greater Melbourne growth regions experienced double Casey (LHS) Cardinia (LHS) Casey (RHS) Cardinia (RHS) digit annual price growth in December quarter 2017, ranging from 25.3% in City of Wyndham, to 62.8% in City of Melton. Importantly, changes in land price become more relevant when compared to that for lots sizes, with the median lot size in City of Melton shrinking by 6.7% over calendar Only two other municipalities experienced a larger percentage fall in their respective median lot size, being 9.3% in Hume and 8.8% in Moorabool. Conversely, the median lot size in Cardinia GREATER GEELONG & SURF COAST CORRIDOR Median Land Price $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $ Median Lot Size (sqm) increased by 33% over calendar Geelong (LHS) Surf Coast (LHS) Geelong (RHS) Surf Coast (RHS) Source: RPM Research Division
3 TOPIC OF INTEREST THE CHANGING LANDSCAPE OF THE GREENFIELD MARKET MELBOURNE GROWTH CORRIDOR SNAPSHOT A little over 10,000 surveys were included across the 3 calendar years to December 2017 OWNER OCCUPIER VS INVESTOR Type Owner Occupier 82% 74% 71% Investor 18% 26% 29% There has been an increasing share of investors taking ownership in the greenfield market as they continue to see strong capital growth and robust rental returns OWNER OCCUPIER TYPE Type First Home 63% 60% 53% Second Home 24% 26% 32% Third + home 13% 14% 15% Families increasingly upgrading into land estates, which are no longer just for budget conscious buyers or first home buyers - which have decreased COUNTRY OF BIRTH (OWNER OCCUPIERS) TOP 3 Country Australia 47% 39% 33% India 29% 35% 46% Sri Lanka 7% 6% 5% Shifting demographics have seen a change in where buyers come from with an increasing presence of Indian owner occupiers MODE OF TRAVEL TO WORK Mode of Travel Car 89% 86% 85% Train 9% 12% 13% Walk 2% 2% 2% Personal transport remains the most prominent, though increasing infrastructure has provided a choice which will increasingly take a larger share as the roads become even more congested DISTANCE TO EMPLOYMENT Distance less than 10km 27% 20% 17% 10 to 20km 36% 37% 41% more than 20km 38% 43% 41% An increasing share of home owners travel further than 10km to their workplace
4 NUMBER OF STOREYS TO CONSIDER Storeys Single 75% 57% 55% Double 18% 28% 25% Undecided 7% 15% 20% A significant fall has taken place in single storey dwellings, though an increasing share of buyers remained undecided at time of purchasing which indicates buyers are more focused on securing a lot first SIZE OF HOME CONSIDERED (SQS) Size of Home up to 20sqs 22% 24% 22% 21 to 25sqs 37% 37% 38% 26 to 30sqs 24% 24% 27% above 30sqs 17% 15% 13% An increasing presence of homes between 26-30sqs has taken place, indicating growing families BUDGET ON NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION HOUSE & LAND BUDGET Budget < $200,000 34% 33% 19% $200,000-$300,000 50% 50% 61% $300,000-$400,000 12% 13% 16% >$400,000 4% 4% 4% The expected build cost of between $200,000 and 300,000 has increased significantly over the last 12 months, with a decreasing share of budgets under $200,000 Budget < $350,000 18% 15% 6% $350,000-$450,000 49% 53% 29% $450,000-$550,000 23% 20% 39% $550,000-$600,000 5% 6% 13% >$600,000 5% 6% 13% An increasing share of buyers are expecting to pay in excess of $450,000 for both their house and land
5 TOPIC OF INTEREST GREATER GEELONG CORRIDOR SNAPSHOT 1,503 surveys were included across the 3 calendar years to December 2017 OWNER OCCUPIER VS INVESTOR Type Owner Occupier 87% 72% 74% Investor 13% 28% 26% There has been an increasing share of investors taking ownership in the greenfield market, and Geelong is no different with 26% of buyers being investors which is reflective of the share of the Melbourne market OWNER OCCUPIER TYPE Type First Home 47% 42% 41% Second Home 26% 25% 20% Third + home 26% 33% 40% Unlike the estates in the Metro Melbourne, Geelong attracts not only FHBs but an equally large share of upgraders with an increasing number of buyers moving into at least their third home COUNTRY OF BIRTH (OWNER OCCUPIERS) TOP 3 Country Australia 89% 86% 80% India 1% 3% 9% UK 4% 5% 4% The presence of nationalities outside of Australians are far more remote than the Melbourne growth corridors with only a small share of buyers coming from India and the UK MODE OF TRAVEL TO WORK Mode of Travel Car 94% 95% 96% Train 3% 4% 3% Walk 3% 1% 1% Personal transport remains the most prominent, though increasing train infrastructure has provided a choice and with further spending mooted will take an increasing share DISTANCE TO EMPLOYMENT Distance less than 10km 42% 21% 25% 10 to 20km 33% 32% 37% more than 20km 25% 47% 38% An increasing share of home owners travel further than 10km to there workplace. This is reflective of the Melbourne market overall. The share in Geelong is likely to increase further as buyers working in Metro Melbourne will continue to move down to Geelong to take advantage of the price differential on offer
6 NUMBER OF STOREYS TO CONSIDER Storeys Single 82% 69% 67% Double 11% 20% 11% Undecided 7% 11% 22% A significant fall has taken place in single storey dwellings, with an increasing share of buyers remaining undecided at time of purchasing the lot - this is reflective of the Melbourne market overall SIZE OF HOME CONSIDERED (SQS) Size of Home up to 20sqs 19% 21% 10% 21 to 25sqs 44% 49% 48% 26 to 30sqs 24% 21% 31% above 30sqs 13% 9% 11% An increasing presence of homes between 26-30sqs has taken place, indicating growing families, with a fall in homes under 20sqs BUDGET ON NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION HOUSE & LAND BUDGET Budget < $200,000 30% 29% 9% $200,000-$300,000 52% 54% 70% $300,000-$400,000 14% 15% 17% >$400,000 4% 2% 4% The expected build cost of between $200k and 300k has increased significantly, with a decreasing share of budgets under $200k Budget < $350,000 19% 19% 4% $350,000-$450,000 50% 57% 45% $450,000-$550,000 21% 12% 39% $550,000-$600,000 5% 6% 7% >$600,000 5% 6% 5% An increasing share of buyers are expecting to pay between $450k and $550k for both their house and land
7 NEWS AND UPDATES VICTORIAN PLANNING AUTHORITY Plumpton and Kororoit Precinct Structure Plans were approved and gazetted in February In an effort to boost housing supply, the VPA has been set a target to complete 17 Precinct Structure Plans over 2017 and 2018, which will include the rezoning of more than 100,000 lots. The table below contains projections for the number dwellings, people and jobs each of these 17 Precinct Structure Plans are anticipated to support. Precinct Structure Plan LGA Status Estimated Dwellings Estimated Population Estimated Jobs Pakenham East Cardinia Community Engagement & Exhibition 7,150 21,000 1,313 McPherson Casey Structure Plan Finalisation 10,100 28,300 1,619 Minta Farm Casey Review of Submissions 3,000-10,000 Lancefield Road Hume Structure Plan Finalisation 8,000 22,000 - Lindum Vale Hume Review of Submissions 1, Sunbury South Hume Structure Plan Finalisation 11,800 33,000 - Kororoit Melton Completed - February ,200 25,875 2,100 Mt Atkinson & Tarneit Plains Melton Completed - September ,700 19,000 18,000 Plumpton Melton Completed - February ,680 29,900 12,000 Beveridge Central Mitchell Submitted for Approval 3,640 10,193 - Beveridge North West Mitchell Council & State Agency Consultation 11,290 31,611 6,165 Donnybrook & Woodstock Whittlesea Completed - November ,400 46,000 3,316 Shenstone Park Whittlesea Council Led Wollert Whittlesea Completed - February ,060 42,168 8,040 Quandong Wyndham Council Led Source: Victorian Planning Authority Furthermore, background studies and draft structure preparation for the following Precinct Structure Plans have commenced during 2017 Aviators Field (Point Cook South) and Werribee Junction in City of Wyndham; Craigieburn West and Merrifield North in City of Hume; Wallan South in Mitchell Shire Croskell (Casey Central) and Clyde South in City of Casey; and Officer Employment in Cardinia Shire.
8 MELBOURNE RESIDENTIAL MARKET PRICES Property prices in Melbourne have trended upwards since the middle of 2013, with detached houses achieving stronger growth than units. The established housing market to date remains robust when compared to other states with approximately 44,177 auctions held in Victoria during the twelve months to November 2017, with a clearance rate of 75.7% (REIV). The number of auction sales during the twelve months to November 2017 is 13.5% higher than the corresponding period a year earlier, where the clearance rate was 73.6% (REIV). At December quarter 2017 preliminary data recorded; House price of $821,000 (+1.1% from the previous quarter, and +6.9% from the corresponding quarter a year earlier) Unit price of $594,500 (+1.2% from the previous quarter, +5.9% from the corresponding quarter a year earlier) Land price of $303,000 (+5.2% from the previous quarter, +28.5% from the corresponding quarter a year earlier) Median House & Apartment Price MELBOURNE PRICES $850,000 $800,000 $750,000 $700,000 $650,000 $600,000 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 Melb House Price (LHS) Melb Unit Price (LHS) Melb Land Price (RHS) $821,000 $303,000 $594,500 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 $325,000 $300,000 $275,000 $250,000 $225,000 $200,000 $175,000 Median Land Price Source: REIV, RPM Research Division PRICE CHANGE % change 120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% 29% 7% 16% 6% 11% 109% 80% 55% 56% 42% 44% 33% 12 months 2 years 5 years 10 years Melbourne House Price Melbourne Unit Price Melbourne Land Price Source: REIV, RPM Research Division
9 ECONOMIC MARKET UPDATE Australia s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in September quarter 2017 (the latest available data) increased by 0.6% from the corresponding figure in the previous quarter. This led to growth of annual GDP to September 2017 improving to 2.24%. Exports and public investment are two sectors of the economy driving growth in economic activity. However, GDP growth remains below the long term trend. Private consumption growth is moderate in the face of low wage growth, while weak business investment persists. Moreover, a previous growth driver for the economy in dwelling investment has stabilised through 2017, resulting in annual growth to just 0.63% at September Nevertheless, growth in the Victorian economy has outperformed the national average, with annual State Final Demand (SFD) at September 2017 being 4.70% higher than the same figure at September This places Victoria second, behind Northern Territory (5.90%). Victoria experienced strong annual growth of 4.60% in the number of employed persons at December This was also the second highest employment growth rate amongst all states and territories. However, the unemployment rate at December 2017 of 6.1% was above the national rate of 5.5%, likely attributed to the closure of the car manufacturing industry. Public Investment Victorian State Economy Employment Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics INTEREST RATE After reducing the cash rate by 25 basis points in both May and August of 2016, the RBA has made no further changes in following fifteen monthly meetings, leaving the cash rate at a historical low of 1.50%. This persistent low interest rate environment has been attributed to below trend economic growth and low wage growth resulting in weak inflationary pressures. Moreover, slowing house price growth in Sydney and Melbourne and residential investment lending has removed the requirement for the cash rate to rise in the short term. Nevertheless, additional cuts to the cash rate are unlikely, with the next RBA move in the cash rate still likely to be up. APRA s directive for banks to limit the flow of new interest only lending to 30% of new residential mortgage lending and subsequent strict criteria for allowing interest only loans to have a LVR of above 80%, resulted in higher borrowing rates for interest only loans for both owner occupiers and investors to entice borrowers to move to principal and interest loans. The official standard variable interest rate for owner occupiers sits at 5.20% (while investor loans sits at 5.80%). However, with some bargaining owner occupiers can obtain a discounted interest rate of 4.50% (investors can obtain 5.10%) from the major lenders. Furthermore, some banks outside of the big four currently have introductory rates of 3.65% for owner occupiers who pay principal and interest. 1.50% 5.20% 4.50% 4.10% % 3 yr - Cash Rate (Dec-17) Standard Variable Rate (Owner Occupiers - Dec-17) Discounted Variable Rate (Dec-17) 3 Year Fixed Rate (Dec-17) Source: Reserve Bank Australia
10 CONSUMER SENTIMENT The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index is the most widely quoted barometer of consumer sentiment in Australia. A score of greater than 100 means that optimists outnumber pessimists, with readings of below 100 indicating that pessimistic consumers are in the majority BUSINESS CONDITIONS NAB s Business Survey has been tracking Australian business confidence levels for more than two decades. Businesses are approached quarterly, with two smaller monthly surveys conducted in the intervening months to capture changes on a more regular basis. The panel now exceeds 2,700 businesses. Business Conditions Index = Sep-2013 Dec-2013 Mar-2014 Jun-2014 Sep-2014 Dec-2014 Mar-2015 Jun-2015 Sep-2015 Dec-2015 Mar-2016 Jun-2016 Sep-2016 Dec-2016 Mar-2017 Jun-2017 Sep-2017 Dec-2017 NAB Index Sep-2013 Dec-2013 Mar-2014 Jun-2014 Sep-2014 Dec-2014 Mar-2015 Jun-2015 Sep-2015 Dec-2015 Mar-2016 Jun-2016 Sep-2016 Dec-2016 Mar-2017 Jun-2017 Sep Dec-2017 Source: Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index Source: National Australia Bank Business Survey The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index has improved in December 2017, rising to Notably, this was the Index s highest monthly reading in four years, with the improvement in consumer sentiment showing up in a recovery in retail spending. However, many households are still concerned about family finances, in response to high debt levels. This will limit the ability for consumers to deplete savings further, and halt any continued recovery in spending. Growth in business conditions has largely remained solid from the middle of 2015, with the December 2017 result of an 11.6 percentage point increase continuing the double digit monthly rises since December The lift in overall business conditions in December quarter 2017 was attributed to stronger trading conditions and profitability. Strong business conditions are present across most major industry groups, with the construction industry is particularly buoyant, attributed to a large pipeline of residential construction work. Business conditions are also robust across all states, with the Victorian index recording a 13 percentage point increase. VICTORIAN POPULATION 35,000 30,000 Victoria gained 32,932 people during June quarter 2017 (latest available data), lifting its estimated resident population to 6,323,606 people. This equated to a population increase of People 25,000 20,000 15,000 10, ,357 people or 2.34% growth in Victoria over 5,000 the twelve months to June 2017, which were both - the strongest in absolute terms and percentage -5,000 terms amongst all states and territories. Mar-2012 Jun-2012 Sep-2012 Dec-2012 Mar-2013 Jun-2013 Sep-2013 Dec-2013 Mar-2014 Jun-2014 Sep-2014 Dec-2014 Mar-2015 Jun-2015 Sep-2015 Dec-2015 Mar-2016 Jun-2016 Sep-2016 Dec-2016 Mar-2017 Jun-2017 Natural Increase Net overseas migration Net interstate migration Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
11 POPULATION COMPONENTS A breakdown of the three components of population growth shows that in June quarter 2017 Victoria recorded; Natural Increase + Net Interstate Migration Net Overseas Migration +38.5% * -27.8% * +27.6% * +40,274 persons over the 12 months to June 2017 (+0.4%). Reflects 28% of the national natural increase +17,182 persons over the 12 months to June 2017 (+2.9%). +86,901 persons over the 12 months to June 2017 (+23.1%). Reflects 35% of the national intake * Increase on same quarter of the previous year FINANCE ACTIVITY - VICTORIA LOANS BY DWELLING TYPE Victoria is experiencing record levels of owner occupation lending, with 51,422 new loans approved during December quarter Buoyant owner occupation demand has been underpinned by strong population growth and historical low borrowing costs. As a result, the number of new owner occupier loans escalated by 10.4% from the same period in In December quarter 2017, compared to the previous corresponding period, new owner occupation loans for newly constructed dwellings and recently constructed dwellings (but have not been lived in) increased by a sizeable 16.2%, and by 10.4% for established dwellings. Established dwellings accounted for a relatively high 83% of total new owner occupation loans in the three month period. Overall, the number of new owner occupation loans during calendar 2017 in Victoria was also a record at 189,659 loans, which was 5.2% above the number of similarly financed dwellings over calendar No. of new dwellings 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 No. of established dwellings new dwelling (LHS) purchase of established dwellings (RHS) Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
12 VALUE OF LOANS BY PURCHASER TYPE The total value of new owner occupier loans in December quarter 2017 escalated by 15.0% compared to the previous corresponding period. This was primarily attributed to the substantial 28.5% growth in the median lot price over calendar 2017, with owner occupier loans for new dwellings increasing at a greater rate compared to that for established dwellings. This reflects a shift in demand to the relatively more affordable outer metropolitan areas, and also to new housing in developments in the greenfields. The total value of loans to investors in December quarter 2017 was 1.9% higher compared to the same period in This growth rate has eased through 2017, in response to Australian Prudent Regulation Authority (APRA) directives of ensuring residential investor lending growth remains below the 10% cap total value of loan by type ($m) $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Owner Occupier Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Investor Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 and to limit the number of new interest only lending to 30% of Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics new residential mortgage lending. However, the value of investor loans is still increasing, with investors being able to obtain finance through second tier banks, and also major banks feeling more comfortable to lend to investors whilst complying with APRA directives. NUMBER OF LOANS TO FIRST HOME BUYERS AND NON-FIRST HOME BUYERS The number of loans attributed to first home buyers reached 9,892 loans over December quarter 2017, which was a substantial 39.7% higher than first home buyer loans in the same period in This was the highest quarterly total of first home buyer loans since December quarter 2009 when the Federal Government s first home owner boost scheme was in place. This surge in first home buyer demand was attributed to the two Victorian Government initiatives beginning July 2017 of abolishing stamp duty for first home buyers when purchasing a dwelling of up to $600,000 in value, and for owner occupation, and the doubling of the first home buyer grant to $20,000 when purchasing a new dwelling outside of Greater Melbourne. Dwellings financed to non-first home buyers recorded 41,530 loans during December quarter 2017, reflecting a 5.2% increase on the same quarter in the previous year. The escalation in first home buyer demand resulted in their share of total loans improving to its highest proportion in four years of 19%. Considering the number of dwellings financed to non first home buyers also increased, this further highlights the significant boost the two Victorian Government initiatives have had on first home buyer demand. No. of loans 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 First Home Buyers Non-First Home Buyers Share of FHBs 23% 20% 18% 15% 13% 10% 8% 5% 3% 0% Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics % share of FHBs
13 AVERAGE LOAN SIZE FIRST HOME BUYERS AND NON-FIRST HOME BUYERS The average loan size to first home buyers in December quarter 2017 increased by 5.2% from the previous corresponding period, while the average loan size to non-first home buyers escalated by 4.8%. After narrowing during the first half of calendar 2016, the divergence between the average loan amount to first home buyers and non-first home buyers has widened again through financial year 2017, with this difference being relatively large. At December 2017, the average loan size attributed to a non-first home buyer was $408,400, $66,200 above the average loan size to a first home buyer ($342,200). Average loan size ($) $425,000 $400,000 $375,000 $350,000 $325,000 $300,000 $275,000 $250,000 FHBs - Average loan size Non-FHBs - Average loan size Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics BUILDING ACTIVITY - VICTORIA APPROVALS Victoria recorded a long term high of 22,241 dwelling approvals in December quarter 2017, representing a significant escalation of 34.5% on dwelling approvals in the same quarter in This reversed the trend through the first three quarter periods of 2017 of approvals being lower than their previous corresponding quarter, and also resulted in total approvals in calendar 2017 in Victoria being 3.6% higher than in calendar 2016, at 69,642 dwellings. New detached house recorded a solid 9,525 approvals in December quarter 2017, which reflected growth of 10.1% on new detached house approvals in the same quarter in However, a considerable 103% annual surge in approvals of flats/units/apartments in buildings of 4 storeys and higher in December quarter 2017 to 8,931 dwellings was primarily responsible for the long term high in total dwelling approvals. This quarterly result was largely driven by the record monthly high of November which accounted for more than half of this quarterly figure. This outcome flies in the face of current market sentiment that there is a glut of apartments in the market. It should be noted that these are approvals and there is no certainty that they turn into commencements. In addition, the conversion of high rise dwelling approvals to commencements are historically lumpy in the project pipeline. If they do all come on line, some price softness could occur if population growth does not continue at its current level. During calendar 2017, there were 37,048 new detached houses approved, reflecting a 1.8% increase on house approvals during calendar Over the same period, approvals of semi-detached/row/terrace houses and townhouses increased by a sizeable 20.7%, although flat/unit/apartment approvals still declined by 2.5% despite the record approval numbers in December quarter ,000 10,000 Detached Houses Townhouses Apartments 9,000 No. of approvals 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
14 COMMENCEMENTS Detached house commencements in Victoria are currently at cyclically peak levels, with 36,260 house starts in calendar 2016, and 36,150 house starts estimated in calendar In calendar 2018, detached house commencements are projected to be 8.4% lower, although still relatively high at 33,100 starts. However, detached house starts are forecast to contract by a further 11.8% in calendar 2019, before edging higher during the following two years to The peak in multi unit dwelling commencements of 35,490 starts occurred earlier in calendar 2015, with construction activity declining since. It is estimated that 28,570 multi unit dwellings were commenced in calendar 2017, 19% below the peak two years prior. A further 38% contraction in multi unit dwelling starts is forecast over the next two years, with commencements also diminishing to half the peak level in 2015, equating to an anticipated construction of 17,710 multi unit dwellings in calendar ,000 70,000 Houses Multi-units Forecast 60,000 No. of dwellings 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 36,150 28, (e) Source: Housing Industry Association Although all reasonable care has been taken in the preparation of this report, the RPM Real Estate Group Pty Ltd take no responsibility for the accuracy of the information contained herein. It is recommended that all the information be verified if it is to be used for commercial purposes.
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