RP Data Housing market update. October 2014

Transcription

1 RP Data Housing market update October 2014

2 Residential real estate absolutely underpins Australia s wealth position Residential Real Estate $5.6 Trillion Australian Superannuation $1.5 Trillion $1.8 Trillion (SMSF $543.4 Billion) Australian Commercial Listed Real Stocks Estate $1.6 $0.7 Trillion Commercial Real Estate $0.7 $0.7 Trillion As at end of September Source: RP Data, ASX, SPAA, PCA

3 Capital gain: Home values up 9.3% over past year, however the annual rate of growth is losing some momentum Rolling annual and quarterly change in dwelling values, combined capital cities Median Prices $559,700 Capital Gain Dwelling s Past 12 months 9.4% 8.1% 9.3% $470,000 Annual over five years Annual over ten years 3.8% 3.7% 3.8% 4.8% 4.3% 4.7% 3 Source: RP Data

4 The vast majority of capital gain has been recorded across the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets 51.2% 46.0% 14.5% 10.9% 6.0% 1.6% 4 Source: RP Data

5 Regional NSW: values are now increasing across all regions of the state Statistical Division Qtr Annual 5 yr From peak Qtr Annual 5 yr From peak Sydney 4.4% 14.9% 6.3% 0.0% 2.7% 11.5% 5.4% 0.0% Hunter 1.9% 11.6% 5.5% 0.0% 1.3% 7.0% 3.1% 0.5% Illawarra 0.0% 9.1% 4.5% 0.9% 1.1% 8.7% 5.0% 0.0% Richmond Tweed 1.8% 3.1% 1.2% 2.3% 0.2% 3.0% 0.9% 8.1% Mid North Coast 2.3% 14.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.4% 1.1% 1.1% 2.0% Northern 0.2% 4.7% 5.0% 0.5% 0.2% 5.2% 5.0% 0.4% North Western 0.8% 6.1% 5.1% 1.6% 0.2% 6.5% 5.4% 1.6% Central West 0.6% 8.6% 5.5% 0.4% 1.0% 7.8% 5.7% 0.0% South Eastern 3.5% 16.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 1.0% 4.6% Murrumbidgee 3.0% 9.1% 4.1% 0.2% 3.0% 7.5% 3.5% 0.6% Murray 4.1% 9.1% 3.6% 0.7% 5.2% 13.4% 4.4% 0.0% Far West 1.2% 8.0% 6.5% 2.1% 1.2% 8.0% 6.5% 2.1% >= 10% 5% to 10% 0% to 5% 5% to 0% <= 5% 5

6 Sydney: housing market continues to show the highest capital gain trend across the capital cities Rolling annual change in Sydney dwelling values v. combined capitals benchmark 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% Combined capital cities Sydney Sep 98 Sep 00 Sep 02 Sep 04 Sep 06 Sep 08 Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep 14 Median Prices $750,000 Capital Gain Dwelling s Past 12 months 14.9% 11.5% 14.3% $575,000 Annual over five years Annual over ten years 6.3% 5.4% 6.2% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 6 Source: RP Data

7 A substantial pricing gap has opened up between Brisbane and the other largest capital city markets Pricing gap: Percentage difference between Brisbane / Sydney, Brisbane / Melbourne and Brisbane / Perth median house prices 18.2% 25.4%% 41.3% 7 Source: RP Data

8 Major regional markets are also showing strong conditions Gold Newcastle Coast Council region HOUSES Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $450,000 $515,000 2,699 7,235 Median price July 2013 $418,000 $485,000 2,548 5,850 Median price July 2009 $330,000 $481,000 2,575 6,417 Change over past year 7.7% 6.2% 23.7% 5.9% Change over 5 years 36.4% 7.1% 12.7% 4.8% UNITS Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $380,000 $355,000 9, Median price July 2013 $350,000 $345,000 7, Median price July 2009 $310,000 $360,000 8, Number of sales (rolling 3 month) Median house and unit price and number of sales over time 1,400 9,000 $500,000 $600,000 8,000 $450,000 1,200 7,000 $400,000 $500,000 1,000 6,000 $400,000 5, $300,000 $250,000 $300,000 4, ,000 $200,000 $200, $150,000 2,000 $100,000 1, $100,000 $50,000 0 $0 Jul 94 Jul 96 Jul 98 Jul 00 Jul 02 Jul 04 Jul 06 Jul 08 Jul 10 Jul 12 Jul 14 Median unit price (RHS) Number of sales (rolling 3 month) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Median selling price Change over past year 8.6% 2.9% 29.4% 0.5% Change over 5 years 22.6% 1.4% 12.0% 8.5% Median discount Jul % 4.9% 2.1% 5.6% Jul % 6.2% 4.0% 7.2% Jul % 7.9% 5.1% 7.6% Median vendor discount improving 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 4.0% 6.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 8.0% worsening 10.0% 12.0% Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Median selling time Jul Jul Jul worsening improving Median days on market Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 8

9 Major regional markets are also showing strong conditions Gold Wollongong Coast Council region HOUSES Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $485,000 $515,000 2,504 7,235 Median price July 2013 $454,000 $485,000 2,422 5,850 Median price July 2009 $375,000 $481,000 2,262 6,417 Change over past year 6.8% 6.2% 23.7% 3.4% Change over 5 years 29.3% 7.1% 10.7% 12.7% UNITS Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $379,100 $355,000 1,586 9,648 Median price July 2013 $352,500 $345,000 1,305 7,455 Median price July 2009 $305,000 $360,000 1,298 8,618 Number of sales (rolling 3 month) Median house and unit price and number of sales over time 1,600 9,000 $600,000 1,400 8,000 1,200 7,000 $500,000 6,000 $400,000 1,000 5, $300,000 4, ,000 $200,000 2, , $100,000 0 $0 Jul 94 Jul 96 Jul 98 Jul 00 Jul 02 Jul 04 Jul 06 Jul 08 Jul 10 Jul 12 Jul 14 Median unit price (RHS) Number of sales (rolling 3 month) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Median selling price Change over past year 7.5% 2.9% 21.5% 29.4% Change over 5 years 24.3% 1.4% 22.2% 12.0% Median discount Jul % 4.9% 2.3% 5.6% Jul % 6.2% 4.0% 7.2% Jul % 7.9% 4.5% 7.6% Median vendor discount improving 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 4.0% 6.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 8.0% worsening 10.0% 12.0% Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Median selling time Jul Jul Jul worsening improving Median days on market Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 9

10 Lifestyle markets are bouncing back Gold Byron Coast Council Council region region HOUSES Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $605,000 $515,000 7, Median price July 2013 $561,250 $485,000 5, Median price July 2009 $535,000 $481,000 6, Change over past year 7.8% 6.2% 10.7% 23.7% Change over 5 years 13.1% 7.1% 51.5% 12.7% UNITS Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $473,500 $355,000 9, Median price July 2013 $432,500 $345,000 7, Median price July 2009 $422,500 $360,000 8, Number of sales (rolling 3 month) Median house and unit price and number of sales over time 9, $700,000 $600,000 8, $600,000 $500,000 7, $500,000 6, $400,000 5, $400,000 $300,000 4, $300,000 3, $200,000 $200,000 2, , $100,000 0 $0 Jul 94 Jul 96 Jul 98 Jul 00 Jul 02 Jul 04 Jul 06 Jul 08 Jul 10 Jul 12 Jul 14 Median unit price (RHS) Number of sales (rolling 3 month) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Median selling price Change over past year 9.5% 2.9% 30.0% 29.4% Change over 5 years 12.1% 1.4% 41.5% 12.0% Median discount Jul % 4.9% 3.8% 5.6% Jul % 6.2% 4.7% 7.2% Jul % 7.9% 6.6% 7.6% Median vendor discount improving 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 4.0% 6.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 8.0% 12.0% 10.0% worsening 14.0% 12.0% Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Median selling time Jul Jul Jul worsening improving Median days on market Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 10

11 Turnover: buyer demand appears to be levelling, but transaction numbers are 9.8% higher than a year ago Monthly house and unit sales, national 45,000 House sales (with 6 month moving avg) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Unit sales (with 6 month moving avg) 5,000 Jul 94 Jul 99 Jul 04 Jul 09 Jul 14 Annual Sales YoY % change in sales, states and territories Year to July 2014 Year to July 2013 % change 351, , % 140, , % Dwelling s 487, , % 11 Source: RP Data

12 Turnover: NSW, Vic and WA transactions are trending lower while Qld, SA and Tas gather pace NSW QLD WA VIC SA TAS 12

13 Effective housing supply is ramping up in line with Spring Number of advertised properties for sale, Sydney Capital city No of new 12 mth No of total 12 mth listings change (%) listings change (%) Sydney 8, % 20, % Melbourne 9, % 31, % Brisbane 4, % 18, % Adelaide 2, % 8, % Perth 4, % 17, % Hobart % 2, % Darwin % 1, % Canberra % 2, % Combined capitals 30, % 102, % 13

14 Vendor metrics: clearance rates sitting at around 70% Clearance rate Weighted average clearance rate and number of auctions, combined capitals 90.0% 4, % 3, % 3, % 2, % 40.0% 2, % 1, % 1, % % 0 Oct 09 Apr 10 Oct 10 Apr 11 Oct 11 Apr 12 Oct 12 Apr 13 Oct 13 Apr 14 Oct 14 Number of auctions Auction sales as a proportion of all sales 14 Source: RP Data

15 Vendor metrics: selling time and discounting rates have risen slightly Avg vendor discount, combined capitals 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% Aug 06 Aug 08 Aug 10 Aug 12 Aug 14 Avg time on market, combined capitals Aug 06 Aug 08 Aug 10 Aug 12 Aug Source: RP Data

16 Rental markets are relatively soft while values rise Annual change in dwelling rents and dwelling values, combined capital cities Gross rental yields, combined capital cities Annual change in rental rates Gross rental yields Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darwin Canberra Combined capitals 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 16 Combined capitals Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darwin Canberra 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% Source: RP Data

17 Rental yields are being compressed across every capital city as capital gains outpace weekly rents Annual change in dwelling rents and dwelling values Sydney Adelaide Darwin Melbourne Perth Canberra Brisbane Hobart 17 Source: RP Data

18 Mortgage demand: The number of owner occupier loans has been virtually flat over the past twelve months Annual growth in number of owner occupier housing finance commitments (ex refi) +16.1% +1.9% Monthly number of owner occupier housing finance commitments, Australia 18 Source: RP Data

19 Mortgage demand: Growth in housing finance demand has softened but remains high across the investor sector Annual change in value of housing finance commitments, owner occupier loans v investment loans +27.6% +10.3% 19 Source: RP Data

20 Investment properties are mostly concentrated in the inner city unit markets particularly in Sydney and Melbourne Sydney Sydney Melbourne Melbourne 20 Source: RP Data >50% 40 49% 30 39% 20 29% <20%

21 Housing demand: population growth starts to ease on lower overseas migration Quarterly change in national population 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Mar 84 Mar 89 Mar 94 Mar 99 Mar 04 Mar 09 Mar 14 Net overseas migration Natural increase Annual change in population 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,000 Mar 84 Mar 94 Mar 04 Mar 14 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 Mar 84 Mar 94 Mar 04 Mar 14 AUST ACT NT TAS WA SA QLD VIC NSW 0.3% 0.9% 1.7% 1.4% 1.4% 1.6% 1.9% 1.6% 2.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 21 Source: RP Data, ABS

22 Overseas and interstate migration has weakened across Western Australia and Queensland NSW Vic Qld WA Natural Increase Net Overseas Migration Net Interstate Migration 22 Source: RP Data, ABS

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