ULIsf Residential Market Economic & Pipeline Update. Paul Zeger, Principal

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1 ULIsf Residential Market Economic & Pipeline Update Paul Zeger, Principal

2 SEATTLE san francisco new york washington dc LOS ANGELES MIAMI

3 SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND- EMERYVILLE SILICON VALLEY

4 YEAR-OVER-YEAR SALES, PRICE AND RENT GROWTH* SAN FRANCISCO CURRENT PERFORMANCE ANNUAL CHANGE Median Condominium Resale Price $825, +9.3% Condominium Resale Closings % Average Rent $3, % SILICON VALLEY CURRENT PERFORMANCE ANNUAL CHANGE Median Resale Price $533, % Resale Closings % Average Rent $2, % OAKLAND / EMERYVILLE CURRENT PERFORMANCE ANNUAL CHANGE Median Resale Price $357, +31.7% Resale Closings % Average Rent $2, % *For three months ending in December 31, 213 compared to same period in 212 Source: SFARMLS, MLS Listings, EBRDI, Real Facts

5 YEAR-OVER-YEAR JOB GROWTH* SAN FRANCISCO TOTAL JOBS 213 NEW JOBS 213 ANNUAL CHANGE ALL JOBS 64,955 18, % Tech jobs 45,275 6, % SILICON VALLEY TOTAL JOBS 213 NEW JOBS 213 ANNUAL CHANGE ALL JOBS 1,276,871 36, % Tech jobs 138,638 11, % *Source: CBRE, EDD

6 HISTORICAL 3-YEAR MORTGAGE RATES Mortgage (3 Year Fixed) 19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % RATE IN % CURRENT RATE 4.3% Source: FRED Year

7 SAN FRANCISCO ACTIVE CONDOMINIUM INVENTORY 1,5 Number of Units Available New Construction Resales Total Units 1, 5 Source: SFARMLS, Polaris Pacific Year

8 SAN FRANCISCO CONDOMINIUM MARKET - MONTHS OF REMAINING INVENTORY Number of Months 8 6 MRI 2.2 MONTHS Source: SFARMLS Year

9 SAN FRANCISCO HOUSING SUPPLY AND DEMAND 15, Number of Units New Housing Units Shortfall SHORTFALL OF 15,175 UNITS Total Units 1, 5, Source: CBRE, EDD, Polaris Pacific Year

10 SAN FRANCISCO RENTS $3,2 SF OCCUPANCY RATES REMAINED AT AN AVERAGE OF 95% FROM Q4-11 AVERAGE RENT $3,56 $3, Rents $2,8 $2,6 $2,4 211 Q4 212 Q1 212 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 213 Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 Source: Real Facts Quarter

11 SAN FRANCISCO CONDOMINIUM PRICES AND SALES 4 Resales Median Price PREVIOUS PEAK PRICE $762,5 PRICE, 8.2% OVER PEAK $9k $8k 3 $7k $6k $5k 2 $4k $3k 1 $2k $1k $k Source: SFARMLS Year

12 SAN FRANCISCO ANNUAL MULTI-FAMILY COMPLETIONS 2,5 Apartments Condos PEAK CONDOS 2,69 PEAK APARTMENTS 1,848 Forecast 2, 1,5 Units 1, Source: Polaris Pacific Year

13 SAN FRANCISCO FUTURE HOUSING SUPPLY BY DISTRICT CONDOMINIUMS UNDER CONSTRUCTION APARTMENTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION TOTAL NUMBER: 2,28 TOTAL NUMBER: 5, , , Map of Market Number of Units: (Source: Polaris Pacific) Map of Market Number of Units: (Source: Polaris Pacific) 3 1, 3 1,

14 After 2 years of double-digit rent growth, rents were flat in Q4-13 Condo prices experienced double-digit increases in all 3 markets Minimal new condominium inventory being delivered to the market and minimal apartment projects available to be converted to condominiums Huge surge in new apartment construction; minimal new condo construction

15 FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN THE BAY AREA BROOKLYN BASIN LUMINA 5 THOMAS MELLON Developer Tishman Speyer Developer Signature Dev Developer Apic Foreign Investor China Vanke Foreign Investor Zarsion HOldings Foreign Investor -- MARKET San francisco market oakland market san francisco Number of Units 656 Number of Units 3,1 Number of Units 5 MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO SILICON VALLEY OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

16 SILICON VALLEY ACTIVE CONDOMINIUM INVENTORY Number of Units Available 2, New Construction Resales Total Units 1, Source: MLS Listings, Polaris Pacific Year

17 SILICON VALLEY CONDOMINIUM MARKET - MONTHS OF REMAINING INVENTORY 12 1 Number of Months MRI 1.8 MONTHS Source: MLS Listings Year

18 SILICON VALLEY HOUSING SUPPLY AND DEMAND SHORTFALL OF 27,461 UNITS Number of Units New Housing Units 3, Shortfall Total Units 2, 1, Source: CBRE, EDD, Polaris Pacific Year

19 SILICON VALLEY RENTS AVERAGE RENT $2,194 $2,2 $2, Rents $1,8 $1,6 SV OCCUPANCY RATES REMAINED AT AN AVERAGE OF 96% FROM Q4-11 $1,4 211 Q4 212 Q1 212 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 213 Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 Source: Real Facts Quarter

20 SILICON VALLEY CONDOMINIUM PRICES AND SALES 7 6 Resales Median Price PRICE PEAK $587,5 IN JULY, 27 $533,444 IS 9.2% BELOW PEAK $7k $6k 5 $5k 4 $4k 3 $3k 2 $2k 1 $1k $k Source: MLS Listings Year

21 SILICON VALLEY ANNUAL MULTI-FAMILY COMPLETIONS 9, 8, Apartments Condos PEAK APARTMENTS 8,85 Forecast 7, 6, Units 5, 4, 3, PEAK CONDOS 1,844 2, 1, Source: Polaris Pacific Year

22 SILICON VALLEY FUTURE HOUSING SUPPLY BY DISTRICT CONDOMINIUMS UNDER CONSTRUCTION APARTMENTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION TOTAL NUMBER: 436 TOTAL NUMBER: 5,82 Brisbane, Daly City, South San Francisco, Pacifica, San Bruno, Millbrae Brisbane, Daly City, South San Francisco, Pacifica, San Bruno, Millbrae 54 1 Belmont, Burlingame, Redwood City, San Carlos, San Mateo 1 Belmont, Burlingame, Redwood City, San Carlos, San Mateo Menlo Park, Palo Alto, Mountain View, Los Altos 48 2 Menlo Park, Palo Alto, Mountain View, Los Altos 15 San Jose 96 San Jose 4,72 Campbell, Cupertino, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale Campbell, Cupertino, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale Map of the Market Number of Units: (Source: Polaris Pacific) Map of the Market Number of Units: (Source: Polaris Pacific) 1, 3, 1, 3,

23 OAKLAND / EMERYVILLE ACTIVE CONDOMINIUM INVENTORY 1, Number of Units Available 75 New Construction Resales Total Units 5 25 Source: EBRDI, Polaris Pacific Year

24 OAKLAND / EMERYVILLE MARKET - MONTHS OF REMAINING INVENTORY 2 15 Number of Months 1 MRI 2.1 MONTHS Source: EBRDI Year

25 OAKLAND RENTS AVERAGE RENT $2,185 $2,2 $2, Rents $1,8 $1,6 OAKLAND OCCUPANCY RATES REMAINED AT AN AVERAGE OF 96% FROM Q4-11 $1,4 211 Q4 212 Q1 212 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 213 Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 Source: Real Facts Quarter

26 OAKLAND / EMERYVILLE CONDOMINIUM PRICES AND SALES 1 Resales Median Price PRICE PEAK $445, IN JULY, 26 $357, IS 19.8% BELOW PEAK $4k 8 $3k 6 4 $2k 2 $1k $k Source: EBRDI Year

27 OAKLAND / EMERYVILLE ANNUAL MULTI-FAMILY COMPLETIONS 2, Apartments Condos PEAK CONDOS 1,597 Forecast 1,5 Units 1, PEAK APARTMENTS APARTMENTS CONVERTED TO CONDOS Source: Polaris Pacific Year

28 OAKLAND / EMERYVILLE FUTURE HOUSING SUPPLY BY DISTRICT Emeryville CONDOMINIUMS UNDER CONSTRUCTION APARTMENTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION TOTAL NUMBER: TOTAL NUMBER: 461 Emeryville 369 Oakland Oakland 92 Map of the Market Number of Units: (Source: Polaris Pacific) Map of the Market Number of Units: (Source: Polaris Pacific) 3 1, 3 1,

29 FORECAST FOR 214 Market pressure intensified by continued job growth Increasing foreign investment in the Bay Area Historically low interest rates continue Lack of new condominium inventory

30 polarispacific.com