The San Francisco Bay Area Apartment Building Market

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1 The San Francisco Bay Area Apartment Building Market April 2018 Market Report Main Focus on 2-4 Unit Buildings For San Francisco, Alameda & Marin Counties

2 Sales in Millions of Dollars San Francisco Apartment Building Sales by Broker Multi-Unit Residential Property Sales in 2017 Transaction sides for MLS sales of 2+ unit bldgs Dollar Volume Sales by Broker in Millions of Dollars In 2017, Paragon closed more MLS sales of San Francisco multi-unit residential buildings than any other brokerage more than twice the sales of the #2 brokerage. Over the past 5 years, Paragon has closed almost $3 billion in Bay Area multi-unit and commercial real estate transactions Paragon --- Other San Francisco Brokerages dollar volume sales reported to MLS by 1/3/18, per Broker Metrics.

3 2017 Brokerage Statistics When Acting as Listing Agent San Francisco Sales of 2-4 Unit Residential Buildings Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage Average Days on Market to Acceptance of Offer 106% 105% Highest of 10 Largest SF Brokers % 103% Lowest of 10 Largest SF Brokers 102% % % 106% 102% Paragon City Average Paragon City Average Sales of 2-4 unit buildings reported to MLS in 2017 by 1/3/18, per Broker Metrics.

4 Multi-Unit Residential Property Sales San Francisco Districts, Marin & Oakland [3/20/17 3/19/18] Sales reported to MLS in the 12 month period 2-Unit Building Sales 3-4 Units 5-15 Units 16+ Units Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys (D5) Richmond/ Lake Street (D1) Mission, Potrero Hill & Bernal Heights Marin County Russian, Nob & Telegraph Hills Hayes Valley/ NoPa/ Alamo Square (D6) Sunset/ Parkside (D2) Pacific Heights/ Marina (D7) Bayview/ Excelsior/ Portola (D10) South of Market Not charted for reasons of scale: Oakland had 241 sales of 2-unit buildings, 138 sales of 3-4 units; 63 sales of 5-15 units; and 5 sales of 16+ unit buildings reported to MLS in the 12-month period. Does not include sales unreported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.

5 Median Sales Price Trends since Unit Residential: San Francisco, Marin & Alameda Counties Sales reported to MLS $2,000 $1,750 $1,500 $1,250 $1,000 $750 $500 $250 Median Sales Prices in Thousands of Dollars $1,850 $1,800 $1,673 $1,393 $1,425 $1,250 $1,200 $985 $1,106 $970 $802 $730 $848 $740 $610 $600 $549 $450 $335 $283 $2,050 $1,835 $1,763 $1,578 $1,439 $1,300 $1,001 $956 $- Alameda 2-4 Unit Buildings Marin 2-4 Unit Buildings San Francisco 3-4 Unit Buildings San Francisco 2-Unit Buildings These prices are generalities reflecting sales of a wide variety of buildings in locations of differing values. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximations. Typically, the fewer the sales, the more prone the median price is to anomalous fluctuations.

6 $670,000 $800,000 $1,375,000 $1,120,000 $987,000 $1,900,000 $1,628,000 $1,492,000 $2,518,000 $1,828,000 $2,069,000 $2,725,000 $1,350,000 $1,621,500 $1,737,500 $1,787,500 $2,150,000 $2,150,000 $1,825,000 $2,800,000 $2,074,000 $2,425,000 $2,972,500 $3,174,000 $2,812,000 $3,418,000 $3,850,000 $3,608,000 $3,000,000 $4,075,000 San Francisco, Oakland & Marin County Residential Multi-Unit Properties, Median Sales Prices MLS Sales reported 3/20/17 3/19/18 2 Unit Buildings 3-4 Unit Buildings 5-15 Unit Buildings Median Sales Prices Oakland Bayview - Excelsior (D10) Sunset - Parkside (D2) Richmond - Lake Street (D1) Marin County Mission - Potrero - Bernal Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys (D5) Hayes Vly - NoPa (D6) Russian, Nob & Tel Hills Pacific Heights - Marina (D7) Neighborhood titles often stand for larger districts. Some markets had relatively few sales in the period. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.

7 Average Dollar per Square Foot Values since Unit Residential Buildings: San Francisco, Marin & Alameda Counties Sales reported to MLS $700 Average Dollar per Square Foot Values by Year $692 $723 $600 $599 $595 $652 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $387 $341 $294 $262 $220 $170 $148 $545 $551 $534 $532 $476 $478 $426 $422 $327 $364 $330 $328 $411 $388 $511 $569 In San Francisco, 2-units sell at a premium due to condo conversion rules. $- Alameda 2-4 Unit Buildings Marin 2-4 Unit Buildings San Francisco 3-4 Unit Buildings San Francisco 2-Unit Buildings Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximations.

8 $361 $295 $298 $357 $394 $493 $529 $456 $540 $490 $523 $514 $621 $652 $613 $536 $567 $496 $549 $622 $592 $668 $633 $697 $746 $759 $849 $871 $844 $988 San Francisco, Oakland & Marin County Residential Multi-Unit Properties, Average Dollar per Square Foot MLS Sales reported 3/20/17 3/19/18 2 Unit Buildings 3-4 Unit Buildings 5-15 Unit Buildings Average Dollar per Square Foot Oakland Bayview - Excelsior (D10) Marin County Richmond - Lake Street (D1) Sunset - Parkside (D2) Hayes Vly - NoPa (D6) Mission - Potrero - Bernal Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys (D5) Russian, Nob & Tel Hills Pacific Heights - Marina (D7) Neighborhood titles often stand for larger districts. Some markets had relatively few sales in the period. Outlier sales excluded when identified. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.

9 New Listings Coming on Market, by Month Seasonality & the SF Multi-Unit Residential Market MLS 2-4 unit and 5+ unit activity, per Broker Metrics Spring Autumn Spring Autumn Summer Mid- Winter Mid- Winter As reported to MLS only. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Based upon MLS activity. All numbers approximate.

10 Listings Accepting Offers by Month Seasonality & the SF Multi-Unit Residential Market MLS 2-4 unit and 5+ unit activity, per Broker Metrics Spring 59 February & March 2018 saw large year-over-year jumps in listings going into contract. Sales of 2-unit buildings in particular surged. Autumn Summer Autumn Mid- Winter Spring Summer Mid- Winter As reported to MLS only. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Based upon MLS activity. All numbers approximate.

11 2-Unit Residential Building Values 2017 Sales Review*: SF Districts, Marin & Alameda Counties Selected Neighborhoods/ Districts Pacific & Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow & Marina (District 7) Russian, Nob & Telegraph Hills; North Beach Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys; Ashbury & Corona Heights; Mission Dolores (D5) North of Panhandle (NoPa), Alamo Square, Hayes Valley, Lower Pacific Heights (D6) Lake Street, Richmond District, Lone Mountain (District 1) Number of Sales Median Sales Price Average Size (square feet) Sales reported to MLS Average Dollar per Square Foot 17 $2,850, sq.ft. $903/sq.ft. 12 $2,225, $ $2,200, $ $1,850, $ $1,839, $649 Potrero Hill, Bernal Heights & Inner Mission 35 $1,799, $746 (District 9) Sunset, Parkside (District 2) 30 $1,512, $632 Marin County (All) 31 $1,300, $637 Sausalito & Tiburon Only 16 $1,710, $736 Bayview-Excelsior (District 10) 15 $1,090, $500 Alameda County 294 $702, $404 SF buildings in this analysis apply toproperties with at least 1 car parking: Buildings without parking typically sell at a significant discount. Median price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. This analysis was performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision. * Data from MLS sales in 2017 through the first 3 weeks of December. All numbers approximate.

12 3-Unit Residential Building Values 2017 Sales Review*: SF Districts, Marin & Alameda Counties Selected Neighborhoods/ Districts Pacific & Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow & Marina (District 7) North of Panhandle (NoPa), Alamo Square, Hayes Valley, Lower Pacific Heights (D6) Russian, Nob & Telegraph Hills; North Beach Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys; Ashbury & Corona Heights; Mission Dolores (D5) Potrero Hill, Bernal Heights & Inner Mission (District 9) Richmond District,, Lake Street, Lone Mountain (District 1) Number of Sales Median Sales Price Average Size (square feet) Sales reported to MLS Average Dollar per Square Foot 5 $3,150, $857/sq.ft. 13 $3,125, $ $2,300, $ $2,040, $ $1,820, $ $1,782, $529 Marin County 10 $1,561, $540 Bayview-Excelsior (District 10) 3 $925, $350 Alameda County 92 $835, $348 Median price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. Dollar per square foot is based upon the building s interior living space and does not include garages, storage, unfinished attics and basements; or rooms built without permit. These figures are typically derived from appraisals or tax records, but can be unreliable or unreported altogether. Both statistics are gross generalities for a basket of diverse sales in which the underlying sales often have wide disparities in values. This analysis was performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision. * Data from MLS sales in 2017 through the first 3 weeks of December. All numbers approximate.

13 Selected Neighborhoods/ Districts Pacific & Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow & Marina (District 7) North of Panhandle (NoPa), Alamo Square, Hayes Valley, Lower Pacific Heights (D6) Russian, Nob & Telegraph Hills; North Beach Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys; Ashbury & Corona Heights; Mission Dolores (D5) Lake Street, Richmond District, Lone Mountain (District 1) 4-Unit Residential Building Values 2017 Sales Review*: SF Districts, Marin & Alameda Counties Number of Sales Median Sales Price Average Size (square feet) Sales reported to MLS Average Dollar per Square Foot 5 $2,850, $803/sq.ft. 6 $2,688, $631 3 $2,579, $ $2,200, $683 5 $2,140, $537 Marin County 6 $2,071, $509 Sunset, Parkside (District 2) 3 $1,669, $544 Inner Mission, Bernal Heights, Potrero Hill 16 $1,540, $564 (District 9) Alameda County 131 $1,073, $344 Median price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. Dollar per square foot is based upon the building s interior living space and does not include garages, storage, unfinished attics and basements; or rooms built without permit. Both statistics are gross generalities for a basket of diverse sales in which the underlying sales often have wide disparities in values. This analysis was performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision. * Data from MLS sales in 2017 through the first 3 weeks of December. All numbers approximate.

14 San Francisco 2-4 Unit Building Sales 12 Months Sales by Price Segment, 2017 Sales Review* Sales reported to MLS. 2-Unit Building Sales 3-Unit Building Sales 4-Unit Building Sales Median Sales Prices & Avg. $/sq.ft. 2-Unit Bldgs $1.835m $723/sq.ft. 3-Unit Bldgs $2.025m $586/sq.ft. 4-Unit Bldgs $2.095m $610/sq.ft Up to $1 million $1m - $1.25m $1.25m - $1.5m $1.5m - $1.75m $1.75m - $2m $2m - $2.25m $2.25m - $2.5m 2.5m - $3m $3m - $4m $4m - $5m $5m+ * 365 days of MLS sales as reported through December 21, M signifies millions of dollars. Data from sources deemed reliable, but subject to error and revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

15 Price per Unit on Sale in 2017 San Francisco, Marin & Alameda Counties Sales reported to MLS through 12/31/17 Average Price per Unit Values Selected Building Sizes by Unit Count San Francisco 2 units $982,500 San Francisco 3 units $733,000 Marin County 2 units $707,000 San Francisco 4 units $552,000 San Francisco 5-8 units San Francisco 9-15 units $459,000 $422,000 2-unit buildings in San Francisco typically sell at a premium due to condo conversion rules. Alameda County 2 units $403,500 San Francisco units $324,000 Alameda County 5-8 Units $234,000 $- $200,000 $400,000 $600,000 $800,000 $1,000,000 These prices are gross generalities reflecting sales of a wide variety of buildings and unit sizes in locations of differing values. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Outlier sales were removed from the analysis when identified. All numbers to be considered very general approximations.

16 San Francisco Residential Rents Weighted Average Asking Rent, Q1 Data Points, Present Per RealFacts LLC & Zillow Rent index. $3,500 $3,250 $3,000 $2,750 $2,500 $2,250 $2,000 $1,750 $1,500 $1,250 $1,000 $1,010 Dotcom peak $1,340 $1,585 $1,874 Average Residential Asking Rent Q1 Data Points Except as Noted $2,314 $1,948 $2,034 $1,877 $1,728 Dotcom bubble pops $2,326 $2,219 $2,790 $2, financial markets crash $3,057 $3, recovery $3,620 $3,327 $3,370 Q data through 2/28/18 1 st quarter data points except, as noted, for last reading per RealFacts LLC, for buildings with at least 50 units onward estimated using Zillow Rent Index data. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.

17 Median List Rents since 2011 Bay Area Counties Data per Zillow, 5+ unit buildings through February 2018 Even after the decline from recent peaks SF still has the highest rents in the nation. $4,000 San Francisco San Mateo Santa Clara Alameda Contra Costa Sonoma Solano Marin County has a trend line similar to San Mateo. $3,750 $3,500 $3,250 $3,000 $2,750 $2,500 $2,250 $2,000 $1,750 $1,500 Longer-term trends are much more $1,250 meaningful than short-term fluctuations. $1, Per Zillow rental data by month. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

18 San Francisco Median List Rents by Unit Size (Bedroom Count) since 2012 Data per Zillow through November 2017 $5,000 $4,750 2-Bedroom Unit 1-Bedroom Unit $4,500 $4,250 $4,000 $3,750 $3,500 $3,250 $3,000 Longer-term trends are much more meaningful than short-term fluctuations $2,750 $2,500 Per Zillow rental data by month. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

19 Median List Rent per Square Foot Selected Bay Area Counties & New York Data per Zillow for the 6-month period through 2/28/18 2-Bedroom Apt. 1-Bedroom Apt. Studio Apt. $6.00 $5.50 $5.00 The smaller the unit, the higher the rent per square foot. Smaller units also turn over more often, which can be a good thing or a bad thing for landlords, depending on demand (vacancy rates), rent appreciation trends and the county s rent-control laws (if any). $4.86 $5.13 $4.99 $4.84 $5.37 $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.69 $3.22 $3.94 $2.83 $3.40 $4.02 $3.00 $3.64 $3.27 $3.82 $4.23 $4.30 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 N/A Alameda Santa Clara Marin San Mateo San Francisco New York Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision. Unit size and quality may vary by county. All numbers should be considered approximations.

20 San Francisco Residential 2-4 Unit Building Sales Annual Number of Units Sold since 1994 Sales reported to MLS Over the past 20 years, the condo and TIC conversion option first increased sales, but ultimately reduced the inventory of unconverted 2-4 unit buildings to sell. In recent years, condo and TIC conversion has slowed due to new city laws designed to discourage tenant evictions. These factors have reduced sales dramatically Dotcom bubble pops 2008 market crash 200 Sales reported to MLS by 1/1/18. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.

21 Average Days on Market until Acceptance of Offer San Francisco Multi-Unit Residential Sales since 2010 Per MLS sales data. Bottom of market 2-Units 3-4 Units 5-8 Units 9-15 Units Market recovery General decline in days on market These analyses were performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

22 % of Sales Selling Within 30 Days of Coming on Market San Francisco Multi-Unit Residential Sales since 2010 Per MLS sales data. 2 Units 3-4 Units 5-8 Units 9-15 Units 60% 2012 Market recovery 56% 58% 50% 40% 30% 20% 23% Bottom of market 19% 19% 16% 25% 23% 24% 20% 35% 31% 29% 30% 49% 49% 45% 46% 43% 43% 33% 34% 49% 36% 24% 52% 42% 37% 28% 47% 38% 37% 10% 0% The selling period refers to the time between a listing coming on market and accepting an offer. These analyses were performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

23 Avg. Sales Price to Final List Price Percentage San Francisco Multi-Unit Residential Sales since 2010 Per MLS sales data. 2 Units 3-4 Units 5-8 Units 9-15 Units 110% Market recovery: overbidding heats up 108% 109% 109% Overbidding declines 105% 105% 105% 105% 104% 104% 105% 100% Bottom of market 98% 98% 97% 98% 97% 96% 101% 100% 102% 100% 103% 103% 103% 102% 101% 101% 101% 100% 95% 95% 90% Comparison of sales price to final list price. Outliers removed when identified. These analyses were performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

24 San Francisco Multi-Unit Residential Building Market 2017 Sales Activity by Unit Count units 31+ units 9-15 unit buildings 46 San Francisco s residential investment market is dominated by the sale of smaller buildings unit buildings unit buildings 4-unit buildings 56 3-unit buildings 96 Approximate number of building sales by unit count in Includes mixeduse properties. Estimated totals based on sales reported to MLS by 12/29/17. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.

25 San Francisco Residential Multi-Unit Buildings 2017 Sales by Era of Construction Sales reported to MLS. 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 59% Victorian & Edwardian buildings = 59% of sales Spanish-Med, Art Deco & Marina Style = 22% of sales 22% Approximately 81% of San Francisco residential multiunit property sales are of buildings constructed prior to the beginning of World War ll. It is only in recent years that substantial, new apartment building construction has occurred again. In fact, due to now having the highest rents in the nation, SF is currently in the midst of its biggest boom in apartment construction in over 60 years. As opposed to the mostly smaller 2 20 unit buildings of earlier eras, recent construction is concentrated in very large buildings with high unit counts. 10% 10% 0% 7% Period of Construction % These analyses were performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. All numbers should be considered general approximations.

27 Note that the quantity of sales in any given local submarket is usually relatively small and/or the number of sales that report the necessary financial information can be limited. Buildings of different ages, qualities and sizes selling in different periods can cause these average and median figures to fluctuate significantly. Furthermore, the reliability of some of these calculations depends upon the quality of the income and expense figures provided by the listing agents, and sometimes instead of actual numbers, much less meaningful projected or scheduled figures are used. Therefore, the above statistics should be considered very general indicators, and how they apply to any particular property without a specific comparative market analysis is unknown. If you would like such a specific analysis, please contact me. These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. Statistics are generalities and all numbers should be considered approximate Paragon Commercial Brokerage

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Santa Clara County Real Estate Market Overview Dynamics Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate. Jan-90 Sep-90 May-91