City of Anacortes Residential & Employment Land Capacity Analysis Summary DRAFT

Transcription

1 City of nacortes esidential & mployment Land Capacity nalysis Summary DFT Introduction The Growth Management ct (GM) requires that counties consult cities and allocate population growth within a range of projections provided by the ashington State Office of Financial Management (OFM). GM also requires that counties consult with cities and size their Urban Growth reas (UGs) based on growth over a 20-year period and that comprehensive plans and development regulations provide sufficient land capacity for development to accommodate allocated housing and employment growth (C and 115). City s Comprehensive Plans plan for their entire UGs, including within city limits and unincorporated areas of the UG. s part of their 2016 Comprehensive Plan updates, Skagit County and Cities are undergoing a process to update the countywide growth allocations, as it has been approximately 10 years since the last allocation. The Growth Management ct Steering Committee (GMSC) recommended by resolution to the County Commissioners revisions to Countywide Planning Policy #1, which outlines a process for growth allocation procedures. Cities have conducted land capacity analyses to determine if they can accommodate the initial targets within their UGs. esidential Land Capacity nalysis The initial 2036 population allocation for the nacortes Urban Growth (UG) area is 22,293 people, representing an additional 5,895 people from ssuming 2.25 people per household (per 2010 census data), an additional 2,620 dwelling units would need to be created within the nacortes UG to accommodate that population allocation. Summary stimated Population Capacity 1, 2, 3 4, 4, 4B CM, CM1 C CBD Total st. ddl Dus dd l Pop. Dwelling Units 1, ,300 5, Initial llocation 2,620 5, DU/population deficit (based on 2036 initial allocation) 320 DUs people The table above summarizes the results of an analysis that was conducted using the City s Geographic Information System (GIS), Skagit County ssessor Parcel data, and other information to estimate remaining residential capacity in the UG, under current zoning and development regulations. Page 1 of 8

2 The analysis indicates that under existing conditions, the City will be able to accommodate approximately 2,300 additional dwelling units through This is 320 dwelling units (720 people) less than the initial allocation of 2,620 dwelling units (or 5,895 people). Please note that the estimates provided in the above table represent staff s analysis of land capacity utilizing the method generally agreed to by the Technical dvisory Committee ( Planners Group ) to the Growth Management ct Steering Committee (GMSC). Modifications to methodology and assumptions have been made to address local circumstances and available information. These assumptions could be adjusted, resulting in different result capacity estimates, based on more detailed information and on community values identified through the comprehensive plan update process and/or PC/CC direction. Capacity nalysis arrative Definitions For the purposes of this analysis, the following definitions are used: Vacant Parcels of land that have no structures or have buildings with very little value (eg out buildings, etc.) Partially-used Parcels that are occupied by a use but which contains enough land to be further subdivided without need of rezoning. For instance, a single house on a 10-acre parcel, where urban densities are allowed, is partially developed. e-developable For multi-family zoning, parcels that are zoned for more intensive use than that which currently occupies the property. For instance, a single-family home on multi-family zoned land. parcel was considered re-developable if the assessed land value was greater than or equal to the assessed building value. Base Data Development For all zones, GIS data consisting of Skagit County ssessor s parcel information, aerial photography from 2011, the City s critical areas maps and other data were used to develop base information about each parcel s developable area and development status. Mapped critical areas and buffers were deducted from the overall area of each parcel. Parcels were classified as vacant, partially-vacant or redevleopable per the definitions above. esidential Zones Minimum lot size vs. maximum gross density ach residential zoning district identifies a minimum lot size and maximum gross density for new development. Per the nacortes Municipal Code, gross density is calculated using gross acreage, which is defined as acreage plus one-half the width of abutting rights-of-way of streets and alleys. Due to limited time and resources, calculation of this information on a site specific basis has not been possible and it is difficult to make blanket assumptions for an average figure due to unique circumstances of each property, for example, some sites may not currently abut any O and others may have 300 lineal feet abutting a 80-wide O. Therefore, for purposes of this analysis, estimated development capacity is presented as a range between the potential lot/unit yield using net site area density calculations and yield using minimum lot size. Page 2 of 8

3 1 (esidential Low Density) The maximum density permitted in the 1 zone is 2 dwelling units per gross acre and the minimum lot size is 15,000 square feet; however, through a Planned Unit Development (PUD) process, it is possible to develop using 2 standards (4 du/gr acre; min. lot size of 7,500 SF). For partially-used parcels, the estimated existing developed area (area with existing SF & yard, etc.) was deducted from the base data to arrive at the developable area. n infrastructure discount of 10% for vacant unplatted, and 5% for partially-used parcels was made. This was based on review of development patterns over the past 10 years that indicated on average, approximately 17% and 8% of subdivision and short subdivision sites, respectively, were comprised of streets, stormwater facilities, etc. ecognizing the fact that future development will need to comply with new DO stormwater regulations requiring implementation of low impact development standards, staff felt that the percentage of sites dedicated to streets and detention facilities is likely to decline in the next 20 years, hence reduction factors of 10% for vacant unplatted, and 5% for partially-used were used. The remaining developable area was then divided by the minimum lot size, and multipled by the maximum density, for the underlying zone to identify the range of additional lots that could be developed. Finally, a market factor reduction of 15% for vacant and 20% for partially-used parcels was applied to account for developable land that may be held off the market during the 20-year planning horizon due to fluctuating market forces. market plus context discount of 60% was applied to redevelopable parcels and existing units were deducted from the number of additional units possible. The study identified approximately 26 existing platted vacant lots, 13 un-platted vacant parcels, 34 partially-used parcels and 3 re-developable parcels with an estimated development capacity of approximately 152 additional lots/units based on minimum lot size, and 124 additional lots/units based on net density (assuming development using 1 standards). 2 (esidential Low Density) The maximum density permitted in the 2 zone is 4 dwelling units per gross acre and the minimum lot size is 7,500 square feet. Duplexes are permitted on minimum 9,000 square foot lots with a conditional use permit. stimated additional unit capacity for the 2 zone utilized the same process as for the 1 zone noted above. The study identified 465 existing platted vacant lots, 117 unplatted vacant lots, 107 partially-used lots and 59 redevelopable lots, with an estimated development capacity of 1,148 additional lots/units using minimum lots size or 924 lots/units using net density. 3 (esidential Medium Density) The maximum density permitted in the 3 zone is 9 dwelling units per gross acre and the minimum lot size is 6,000 square feet. Duplexes are permitted on minimum 7,500 square foot lots, and triplexes and fourplexes by conditional use permit on minimum 10,000 and 12,500 square foot lots, respectively. Page 3 of 8

4 stimated additional unit capacity for the 3 zone utilized the same process as for the 1 and 2 zones noted above. The study identified 26 existing platted vacant lots, 12 vacant unplatted lots, 39 partially-used lots and 22 redevleopable lots, for an estimated development capacity of 189 additional lots/units using minimum lots size or 290 units using net density. 3 Old Town Overlay The maximum density permitted in the Old Town Overlay district is 9 dwelling units per gross acre and the minimum lot size is 6,000 square feet. Duplexes are permitted on minimum 7,500 square foot lots, triplexes and fourplexes are not permitted. stimated additional unit capacity for the 3 zone utilized the same process as for the 1, 2 and 3 zones noted above. The study identified 3 existing platted vacant lots, 0 vacant unplatted lots, 3 partially-used lots and 5 redevelopable lots, for an estimated development capacity of 10 additional lots/units using minimum lots size and 18 lots/units using net density. 4 (esidential High Density) The 4 zone allows single family and multi-family dwellings as well as various neighborhood service-type uses. The maximum density permitted is 28 dwelling units per gross acre and the minimum lot size is 3,000 square feet for the first unit and 1,200 square feet for each additional unit. stimated additional unit capacity for the 4 zone utilized the same process as for the other residential zones noted above except that no deductions were made for infrastructure, the entire site area was used to determine potential number of units based on minimum lot size requirements and the derived number was reduced by one to account for the existing dwelling unit. market and context discount of 60% was applied to redevelopable parcels, based on past trends and existing regulatory barriers to development. There were no vacant properties identified in the 4 zone. ssuming that redevelopment of redevelopable parcels occurs lot by lot, rather than a larger basis, such as a block or ½ block, the additional unit capacity in the 4 zone is estimated at 146 additional units using minimum lot size or 185 units using net density. It is worth noting that the 4 zone has a maximum density of 28 dwelling units per gross acre, which is a higher density than can actually be achieved due to the minimum lot size per unit requirements. This is illustrated in the table below: 4 ½ Block xample # units allowed (based on min. lot size) rea (SF) Lot area 30, O rea (assumes 80 Os; 16 alley) +22,400 Gross area 52, # units allowed (based on density) Page 4 of 8

5 4 6,000 SF lot example # units allowed (based on min. lot size) rea (SF) Lot area O area (assumes 60 frontage on 80 wide O & 60 frontage on 16 alley) Gross area # units allowed (based on density) lso, the average lot size of the redevelopable lots in the 4 zone is 6,504 square feet, which would allow a maximum of three units per lot, including the existing unit, if redeveloped on an individual basis, under current development regulations. 4 (esidential High Density Two ()) The 4 zone allows single family and multi-family dwellings as well as various neighborhood service-type uses. The maximum density permitted is 18 dwelling units per gross acre and the minimum lot size is 3,000 square feet for the first unit and 1,200 square feet for each additional unit. stimated additional unit capacity for the 4 zone utilized the same process as for the 4 zone noted above. market plus context discount of 15% was applied to vacant parcels. The study identified four vacant parcels and 22 redevelopable parcels, with an adjusted capacity of 60 units based on minimum lot size and 55 based on net density. Developed parcels in the Skyline area zoned 4 were not considered as part of this analysis. 4B (esidential High Density Two (B)) The 4B zone allows single family and multi-family dwellings as well as various neighborhood service-type uses and uses supportive of manufacturing. The maximum density permitted is 18 dwelling units per gross acre and the minimum lot size is 3,000 SF for SFs, 6,000 SF for duplexes, 7,500 SF for triplexes and 9,000 SF for fourplexes. For multifamily beyond a fourplex, the requirement is 6,000 SF square feet for the first unit and 1,200 SF for each additional unit. stimated additional unit capacity for the 4B zone utilized the same process as for the 4 & 4 zones noted above. The study did not identify any vacant properties and found 42 redevelopable parcels, with an adjusted capacity of 9 units based on minimum lot size and 23 units based on net density. It should be noted that within this zone, of the 42 partially-used parcels identified, only 6 are 7,500 SF or larger (largest is 9,000 SF), meaning that only 14% of the underdeveloped parcels are large enough to accommodate a triplex or larger, if developed individually, under current development regulations. ccessory Dwelling Units DUs are permitted in all residential zones. ccording to City permitting data, a total of 18 DU permits have been processed since 2010, an average of 4 per year. ssuming this rate continues, a total of 80 DUs will have been constructed over the next 20 years. Staff expects that this number will increase moving forward, and that a rate of 10 per year or more may be more likely as they gain in popularity. Page 5 of 8

6 on-esidential Zones Commercial (C) The Commercial zone permits multifamily units above the first floor, with a maximum density of 28 dwelling units per gross acre. esidential uses are only permitted above the first floor. There is no minimum lot size in the Commercial zone. Potential residential unit capacity was conservatively estimated by using only the site area, not including ½ of the adjacent O width, as permitted by the code. Therefore, it could be assumed that the number of potential units reported below is likely higher than those calculated. Due to the requirement to have a commercial use on the ground floor, the capacity numbers assume that 10% of vacant and 6% of redevelopable Commercial properties will develop with residential / mixed uses. The study found 16 vacant parcels in the C zone with an estimated residential capacity of 8 units. There are 27 parcels in the C zone are currently developed with a SF where the land to building value ratio is greater than 1:1, representing development capacity potential of 4 additional units based on net site area. There are 172 non-residential parcels in the zone with a land to building value ratio of greater than 1:1, resulting in an additional unit estimate of 75 units. Central Business District (CBD) The CBD zone allows multifamily units above the first floor. There is no maximum density or minimum lot size in this zone. Staff reviewed several examples of redevelopment in CBD to determine potential density assumptions for the analysis. The ew ilson Hotel, which was renovated to include 25 multifamily units on a 10,000 SF lot (0.48 gross acres), resulted in a built net density of du/acre or du/gross acre. o on-site parking was provided with this development, however. nother project, which has not been built, but provides an example of potential mixed use development in the CBD zone, is the McKee est Plaza project, proposed at the corner of Commercial ve. & 10 th Street. The proposal included 28,000 square feet of commercial space and 32 condominium units on one-half block (30,000 square feet) with structured parking, resulting in a net density of 46 du/acre or 25 du/gross acre. For purposes of this analysis, 40 dwelling units per net acre was chosen based on the above examples. et acres (or site area, rather than gross acres) was used due to the difficulty in projecting adjacent O size for each property. Due to the requirement to have a commercial use on the ground floor, the capacity numbers assume that 10% of vacant and 6% of redevelopable Commercial properties will develop with residential uses. The study found 6 vacant parcels in the CBD zone with an estimated residential capacity of 4 units. There are 38 parcels in the CBD zone are currently developed with a SF where the land to building value ratio is greater than 1:1, representing development capacity potential of 9 additional units based on net site area. There are 100 non-residential parcels in the zone with a land to building value ratio of greater than 1:1, resulting in an additional unit capacity estimate of 36 units. Page 6 of 8

7 esidential development in the CM & CM1 zones Single family development is a conditional use in the CM zone and not permitted in the CM1 zone. Multifamily development is a conditional use in the CM and CM1 zones. Potential residential unit capacity was conservatively estimated by using only the site area, not including ½ of the adjacent O width, as permitted by the code. Therefore, it could be assumed that the number of potential units is likely higher than those calculated. Due to the regulatory requirement to obtain a CUP for residential development, the capacity numbers assume that only 10% of vacant and 6% of redevelopable CM properties will develop with residential uses. In the CM zones, which are located near the Ferry Terminal and in Skyline, multiple single family residential subdivisions have been approved through the CUP process in the last 10 years. The Portalis, San Juan Passage, Channel Landing (88) and Fidalgo Villas (19) developments have approximately 107 platted vacant lots remaining on which to build. The current Comprehensive Plan identifies the Leeward property as potentially accommodating a 100 units. This results in a total of 207 approved, existing or potential single family lots in the CM zone. There is additional capacity through redevelopment of existing sites within this zone under current zoning with mixed use buildings. Only 20% were assumed to develop based on requirement for CUP and because redevelopment would be needed. This capacity is estimated at 176 units, for a total of 383 units in the CM zone. In the CM1 zone the MJB property near 17 th St. is listed in the current Comprehensive Plan as potentially accommodating 150 units, which is consistent with the capacity estimates used within this study. Commercial and Industrial Lands mployment Capacity The City has 11 commercial and industrial zoning districts that provide for a variety of building intensities and uses. These zones include the irport Zone (Z), Commercial (C), Central Business District (CBD), Commercial Marine (CM), Commercial Marine 1 (CM1), Commercial Marine 2 (CM2), Heavy Manufacturing (HM), Industrial (I), Light Manufacturing (LM), Light Manufacturing 1 (LM1), and Manufacturing / Shipping (M/S). To quantify the amount of land available for employment uses, a similar process to the residential land capacity was used to assemble the base data. For all zones, GIS data consisting of Skagit County ssessor s parcel information, aerial photography from 2011, the City s critical areas maps and other data were used to develop base information about each commercial/industrial parcel s developable area and development status. Mapped critical areas and buffers were deducted from the overall area of each parcel. Parcels were classified as vacant or partially-vacant. Following collection of the above-referenced base data, 10% of the square footage was taken out to account for access ways and stormwater facilities. 15% market factor reduction was also applied to account for land that may not be available for development over the planning period. Further reduction to site area was made for areas that also allow residential development. In those zones (C, CBD, CM, and Page 7 of 8

8 CM1) 10% of the site area was assumed to develop with residential uses, considering existing development regulations. (vacant & part vacant) less critical areas (ac) 10% infrastructure reduction (ac) 15% market factor reduction (ac) % assumed to develop w/ nonres. use et area (ac) assumed # emp./acre st. dd l mp. Capacity C % I % LM % ,483 HM % CBD % CM % CM % CM % LM % MS % GD TOTL ,274 Page 8 of 8

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10 City of nacortes Commercial/Industrial Vacant/Part-Vacant Land K O COPPMI D JU V GL SG O BL KL D S CPSS D L OS PL MIO CLD T L HIGHLD D B CH D BC D CO H D Z-LM O 1,340 Feet Z-Z TI L B P C SKLI COHO L SHO PO IT D D TO B LV G L SH IG PUG T PKSID D D M JSP 0 1 COPP POD D D C DO D O O TI VI CT V Z-2 D OV DU O KSHI D S D PL G KI V CO S M GU DL L PL M LIG D PL PIP CI B Z-4 OF Vacant I O OS PI S L T C ITIM I DB H PL BTSO CT Unbuildable SU V L SUG Part-used & Underutilized O S etc. OOP D LParks/Public, M C D 4 5 T 6 HS 7 T S K Developed LIS T O P OO 4 V Dev_Status H SC D T T U IO OH <all other values> C Legend DFT TLDS-2015 D 3 ISL V S D 2 OGO V O CK I DG PK pril 9, 2015 Z-LM

11 U V M V K TS T L V V Q V Q V L V V J V J V J V Q V T V V PL V V T Z-I Z-I HDDO L Z-3 Z-1 V V V S V 38 LOGVI V O V V U V O V K V M V L V I V H V CH L OCHD V V V D CT MI O V I V F V FILD V S U SP 20 S D LL H 31 33D V KIG FI C BLVD COMMCIL V H V I V V I V C V CSCD CT K V F V G V H V I V PK G ID K O C L G TS HIGH CD T L D 35 PL Z-4B 2 36 Z ,750 Feet 2 D D 32D CT 42D PL Z-I O B B C Z-2 Z-4 26 C MIT M I L D Z-C G FIDL B V GL SG O G SID L 27 PL PL 29 VI Z D 24 CT G V KI S 16 V D JSP 24 /Q K L Z-C 20 ISLD VI PL 23D H 2T 1 Z-LM V 17 L GI P GO CK V T SO Vacant Z MI Unbuildable D V D PL Z-CBD Part-used & Underutilized Z-Z D V V COPPMI D B S HIO O Parks/Public, etc. S K ISL D <all other values> Developed 3 C TLDS-2015 V OT V KS O D 2 V DK Legend L TO Dev_Status IG V Z-LM 11 DFT 3D V City of nacortes Commercial/Industrial Vacant/Part-Vacant Land pril 9, 2015 Z-MS 1 4 Z-2 Z-CBD Z-3 5 2D

12 FID City of nacortes Z-2 Commercial/Industrial Vacant/Part-Vacant Land Z-1 O LG B pril 9, 2015 D DFT Legend TLDS-2015 <all other values> Dev_Status Z-HM Developed Parks/Public, etc. Part-used & Underutilized Z-LM1 P U Vacant S S 2 0 Unbuildable OLD BOOK L SUMMIT PK D VSO D ,750 Feet D D M T POI IGHT S SO U `S CH PDI LL H T SVTIO D SC C DI MCH POIT D