>> Orange County Market Gains Positive Momentum
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1 Research & Forecast Report ORANGE COUNTY OFFICE Accelerating success. >> Orange County Market Gains Positive Momentum Key Takeaways > The Orange County office market saw positive demand for third quarter recording 182,600 square feet () of net absorption. > Asking rental rates increased by $0.08 from last quarter to $2.70 per square foot (P) full service gross (FSG). > Despite positive demand, vacancy increased by 10 basis points to 12.5% due to the delivery of 400 Spectrum Center. > Leasing activity increase from last quarter s low of 1.5 million to 1.7 million, in line with the five-year historical average. > Orange County job growth slowed with 1,400 jobs lost in the month of August, though jobs gained so far this year are still up by 900. Annual job gains are highest in construction (6,100 jobs) and leisure and hospitality (3,600 jobs). The Orange County unemployment rate is still among the lowest in California at 4.2%. Orange County Office Market Orange County office market activity increased momentum during the third quarter. Construction activity continued to be a key trend. During the third quarter, 400 Spectrum Center in South County was delivered, adding 466,700 to the inventory base. The Boardwalk in Irvine is expected to be completed at the end of 2017, along with an additional 1.8 million delivering in Market fundamentals will remain strong as newly built inventory delivers to the market, giving tenants the opportunity to explore new space options. As tenants seek right-size space options and new construction delivers to the market, absorption gains are expected to be limited in coming quarters. Market Indicators Relative to prior period Class A Class B All Classes Average Asking Rent $3.13 $2.40 $2.70 Change from Q2 17 ($) $0.07 $0.04 $0.08 Y.O.Y. Change (%) 8.7% 5.3% 8.9% 12-mo Employment Growth (%) 12-mo Actual Employment Change Nonfarm Prof. & Business Services Forecast Net Absorption Construction Rental Rate Summary Statistics Orange County, Asking Rents Orange County, Orange County Labor Force Class A Class B All Classes Rate 14.4% 11.0% 12.5% Change from Q2 17 (Basis Points) Net Absorption* Construction Completions* Under Construction* 2, ,115.5 *, Thousands Financial Activities 0.1% 0.6% 0% 900 1,900 0
2 > Despite positive demand recorded in the third quarter, overall vacancy increased by 10 basis points compared to last quarter due to the delivery of 400 Spectrum Center. > Tenants looking for spaces greater than 100,000 have more options given new office construction deliveries. Tenants searching for space options under 10,000 are currently in the best position. > West County supplanted South County as the submarket with the tightest vacancy in Orange County at 9.4%. > FORECAST: is expected to trend upward as new product comes online in coming quarters. Absorption and Leasing Activity > Net absorption remained positive for the 15th consecutive quarter recording 182,600. North County recorded the highest positive absorption at 135,400. The Airport Area submarket recorded negative demand (-2,600 ). > Large tenant move-ins during the third quarter included Mercedes Benz moving into Sand Canyon Avenue. (45,000 ), ABM Services at Franklin Avenue. (40,000 ) and AON Financial expanded (34,000 ) at Franklin Avenue. > Leasing activity increased from last quarter's low of 1.5 million to 1.7 million, in line with the five-year historical average. > FORECAST: As expected, absorption has flattened so far in Absorption is expected to remain flat as new inventory is brought to the market during the end of 2017 and into Rental Rates > Direct asking rental rates increased 3% from last quarter to $2.70 P FSG. This rental rate increase stems from new construction product delivering to the market. > Class A rental rates increased by $0.06 to $3.13 P FSG, Class B increased by $0.04 to $2.40 and Class C increased by $0.01 to $1.82 P FSG. > FORECAST: Rental rates are expected to increase due to new construction deliveries and then start to stabilize moving into Historical v. Rents O.C. Office Market Q $ P PER MONTH (FSG) RENTS VACANCY $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % $2.30 $2.20 8% $2.10 6% $2.00 4% $1.90 2% $1.80 0% Net Absorption by Submarket O.C. Office Market Q3 17 SQUARE FEET NET ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION COMPLETIONS 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 0 (500,000) (1,000,000) Historical Leasing Activity O.C. Office Market Q ,400,000 2,200,000 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 % VACANT (TOTAL) 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 2
3 Construction > New construction and projects under renovation in the Airport Area, Central County and South County submarkets totaling 2.5 million. This includes The Launch in Irvine, which is currently under renovation. > Four office projects are currently under construction. The Boardwalk, Trammell Crow s development in Irvine is expected to be completed by the fourth quarter The Five Point Gateway, The Flight and The Quad are all expected to be completed in > FORECAST: No new construction projects are expected to come online for the remainder of Investment Trends > Investment activity for properties over 25,000 grew during the third quarter totaling $864.6 million. This jump in sales activity stemmed from the FivePoint Holdings LLC/ Broadcom campus transaction. > Office building sales in 2017 averaged $272 P with the two largest transactions being the sale-leaseback of the Five Pointe Campus for $426 P and the Muller Company office portfolio sale for $274 P. > FORECAST: Minimal federal interest rate increases should help keep investment activity steady through Outlook Moving into the end of 2017, the Orange County market is expected to maintain positive momentum. Class A asking rental rates have increased as the Airport Area and South County submarkets have reached historical peaks, while Central County, North County and West County submarkets continue to see slow but positive growth. New developments coming online during the end of 2017 and into 2018 are expected to put upward pressure on vacancy. Historical Net Absorption & Construction Completions O.C. Office Market Q SQUARE FEET 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 0 (500,000) (1,000,000) NET ABSORPTION Investment Trends Chart O.C. Office Market $ $ $ $ $ $50.00 $0.00 CONSTRUCTION COMPLETIONS $/P Cap Rate Unemployment Rate U.S., C.A. & O.C. August % 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 6% 4% 4.1% 4.2% 3.2% 2% 0% UNITED STATES CALIFORNIA ORANGE COUNTY 3
4 Market Description Orange County is a moderately large suburban office market comprised of 83.3 million square feet and represents 29% of the total inventory of office buildings 25,000 square feet and greater in the Los Angeles basin. Orange County is a relatively new and moderately dense market with 41% of the space in Class A buildings. Orange County is home to a broad mix of firms, including significant representation from the finance, insurance, telecommunications, high-tech, real estate, engineering and professional service sectors. Submarket Map RECENT TRANSACTIONS & MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS Orange County Office Market SALES ACTIVITY PROPERTY ADDRESS SIZE SALE PRICE PRICE P BUYER SELLER Alton Pky, Irvine (Five Pointe Campus) 1,039,900 $443,000,000 $426 P Five Point Holdings LLC Broadcom Von Karman Ave/11000 W Town & County/2677 N 846,377 $232,500,000 $274 P The Muller Company Rockwood Capital LLC Centerpointe LA Palma Portfolio (10 Bldgs) 530,470 $106,100,000 $200 P Greenlaw Partners TA Realty 4100 Newport Place Dr, Newport Beach 190,400 $75,600,000 $397 P Olen Commercial Realty Corporation American Realty Advisors 4400 MacArthur Blvd, Newport Beach 156,300 $59,800,000 $382 P Hilrod Holdings TA Realty LEASING ACTIVITY PROPERTY ADDRESS LEASED LEASE TYPE BLDG CLASS LESSEE LESSOR Alton Pky, Irvine 660,900 Direct A Broadcom Ltd Five Point Holdings LLC Alton Pky, Irvine 90,000 Direct A Lennar Corporate Five Point Holdings LLC Alton Pky, Irvine 44,400 Direct A Five Point Holdings LLC Five Point Holdings LLC MacArthur Blvd, Irvine 38,800 Direct A Home Franchise Concepts CM Stratplan Inc. 575 Anton Blvd, Costa Mesa 37,875 Direct A Veritone Inc. McCarthy Cook & Co. MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS PROJECT DEVELOPER SIZE SUBMARKET STATUS ESTIMATED COMPLETION Five Point Gateway DPR Construction 1,039,900 South County Under Construction 1Q 2018 The Boardwalk, Irvine Trammell Crow 537,200 Airport Area Under Construction 4Q 2017 Tustin Legacy, Tustin Lincoln Property 417,300 Central County Under Construction 3Q 2018 The Quad at Discovery Business Center Irvine Company 369,800 South County Under Construction 2Q MacArthur Blvd The Irvine Company 61,042 Airport Area Under Renovation 4Q MacArthur Blvd The Irvine Company 60,006 Airport Area Under Renovation 2Q
5 OFFICE OVERVIEW Orange County Office Market EXISTING PROPERTIES VACANCY ACTIVITY ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION RENTS Submarket/ Class Bldgs Inventory Direct Sublease Prior Qtr Leasing Activity Current Qtr Leasing Activity YTD Net Absorption Current Qtr Net Absorption YTD Completions Current Qtr Under Construction Weighted Avg Asking Lease Rate AIRPORT A ,448, % 1.1% 15.1% 14.4% 663,000 1,793,400 (160,600) (303,000) 0 537,200 $3.26 B ,486, % 1.2% 10.6% 11.8% 246,300 1,115, ,900 24, ,100 $2.62 C 57 2,581, % 0.5% 8.4% 7.8% 75, ,700 (15,900) (36,000) 0 0 $2.21 SUBTOTAL ,516, % 1.1% 13.0% 13.3% 984,800 3,129,900 (2,600) (314,400) 0 658,300 $3.03 CENTRAL A 29 5,620, % 0.3% 10.8% 11.6% 32, ,200 45,900 35, ,300 $2.35 B 79 6,090, % 0.8% 15.8% 15.8% 131, ,400 (1,700) 143, $2.19 C 58 2,281, % 0.0% 14.8% 14.4% 37, ,600 (8,800) 22, $1.51 SUBTOTAL ,992, % 0.5% 13.6% 13.9% 201, ,200 35, , ,300 $2.12 NORTH A 14 1,633, % 3.9% 11.7% 15.8% 3, ,600 67,200 59, $2.25 B 56 4,984, % 0.3% 11.7% 13.1% 74, ,300 71,300 (57,200) 0 0 $2.00 C , % 0.0% 7.7% 7.4% 11,600 21,300 (3,100) (4,700) 0 0 $1.67 SUBTOTAL 92 7,576, % 1.0% 11.2% 13.0% 88, , ,400 (2,900) 0 0 $2.01 SOUTH A 24 4,547, % 0.3% 17.5% 10.2% 143, ,600 85, , ,700 1,409,700 $3.36 B ,728, % 0.9% 9.1% 8.5% 223, ,500 (79,600) (19,100) 0 0 $2.61 C , % 0.1% 21.2% 21.6% 9,200 41,200 2,600 17, $2.07 SUBTOTAL ,915, % 0.7% 11.8% 9.2% 375,600 1,208,300 8, , ,700 1,409,700 $2.88 WEST A 8 1,029, % 1.1% 10.3% 9.8% 3,600 30,000 (6,100) (18,900) 0 0 $2.72 B 54 2,999, % 0.1% 8.7% 8.7% 57, ,000 (200) (11,800) 0 0 $2.09 C 32 1,274, % 0.1% 10.5% 11.5% 8,900 57,500 12,500 1, $1.81 SUBTOTAL 94 5,303, % 0.3% 9.4% 9.6% 70, ,500 6,200 (29,400) 0 0 $2.14 MARKET TOTAL A ,280, % 1.0% 14.4% 13.1% 844,900 2,453,800 31, , ,700 2,364,200 $3.13 B ,289, % 0.8% 11.0% 11.7% 732,500 2,630, ,700 80, ,100 $2.40 C 184 7,734, % 0.2% 11.6% 11.5% 143, ,300 (12,700) $1.82 TOTAL 1,013 83,304, % 0.9% 12.5% 12.4% 1,720,500 5,533, , , ,700 2,485,300 $2.70 Note: revisions to the inventory base were made effective, historical data reported here reflect these revisions and may not match data reported in previous quarters. 5
6 Definitions of key terms in this report Rentable Square Feet: Office space in buildings with 25,000 square feet or more of speculative office space. Includes competitive space in Class A, B and C single-tenant and multi-tenant buildings. Excludes non-competitive owner-occupied buildings, buildings that include 30 percent or greater of medical or retail space, and space that is under-construction, underrenovation or off-market. Class A Space: Space that an image-conscious company would lease for its headquarters. Typically, this space has a very high level of finish and an excellent location, and commands the highest rents in the market. Class B Space: Highly functional, attractive space, but less prestigious than Class A Space, and commanding lower rental rates. Class C Space: Functional, competitive space, but with a lower level of finish and/or a less desirable location than with Class B Space, and commanding lower rental rates. Low-Rise: Buildings with a total of 4 floors or less. Mid-Rise: Buildings with a total of 5 to 13 floors. High-Rise: Buildings with 14 or more floors. Direct : Space in existing buildings that is vacant and immediately available during the quarter for direct lease, plus space that is vacant but not available for direct lease or sublease (for example, that is being held for a future commitment). : Space in existing buildings that is vacant and immediately available during the quarter for direct lease or for sublease, plus space that is vacant but not available for direct lease or sublease. Net Absorption: Net change in occupied square feet from one period to the next (includes the impact of change in vacant space available for sublease). Leasing Activity: Square feet leased from all known transactions completed during the quarter. Excludes lease renewals. Weighted Average Asking Rental Rates: Weighted by the total square feet available for direct lease. Data is based on Full Service Gross rents, and includes all costs associated with occupying the space, including taxes, insurance, maintenance, janitorial service and utilities. Reported on a monthly, per basis. Space Added (Net): square feet added during the quarter via construction completions, including renovated space returned to market, less total square feet taken off-market due to demolitions or conversions. Under Construction: Includes buildings that are in some phase of construction, beginning with foundation work and ending with the issuance of a Certificate of Occupancy Technical Note: Colliers International is continuously refining its database. The data shown in the historical tables and graphics in this report have been adjusted to take into account these changes in the database. This report has been prepared by Colliers International for general information only. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable and no representation is made as to the accuracy thereof. Colliers International does not guarantee, warrant or represent that the information contained in this document is correct. Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. Colliers International excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from. This report and other research materials may be found on our website at offices in 68 countries on 6 continents United States: 153 Canada: 29 Latin America: 24 Asia Pacific: 79 EMEA: 111 UNITED STATES: Orange County Office License No Park Plaza, 12th Floor Irvine, CA CAITLIN MATTESON Research Director Research Services > $2.6 billion in annual revenue > 2.0 billion square feet under management > Over 15,000 professionals TEL: FAX: ROBERT CAUDILL Regional Director/O.C. 6
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