FOURTH QUARTER 2013 LEASING ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE BETTER THAN EXPECTED MARYLAND OFFICE MARKET REPORT MARKET SUMMARY ABSORPTION
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- Maximillian Hodges
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1 Q MARYLAND OFFICE MARYLAND OFFICE MARKET REPORT FOURTH QUARTER 2013 LEASING ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE BETTER THAN EXPECTED MARKET SUMMARY Updated April 2013 MARKET INDICATORS Q Q1 2014* VACANCY ABSORPTION NET ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION RENTAL RATE * projected SUMMARY STATISTICS Q Q % 15.4% ABSORPTION YTD (151,132) (158,683) DELIVERIES YTD 1,251, ,161 1,288,369 1,107,419 $25.65 $25.15 VACANCY RATE UNDER CONSTRUCTION ASKING RENTS/SF Suburban Maryland continued building on better than expected third quarter leasing activity with an equally strong fourth quarter. Unlike the previous quarter, Federal Government deals accounted for several of the largest leases signed this quarter. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission renewed for five years for just under 350,000 square feet at Rockville Pike. It is a short-term renewal with an upcoming 15 year deal expected to take place in The Indian Health Services (IHS) and National Institutes of Health (NIH) also signed deals this quarter for 77,521 and 75,000 square feet, respectively. The fourth quarter of 2013 finished with 201,238 square feet of absorption, bringing the year-end total to 375,009 square feet of positive absorption. Class A space continued to be the largest recipient of positive absorption, accounting for nearly 270,000 square feet. For the year, Class A was the only product that had positive absorption, and was offset by nearly 200,000 square feet of negative Class B absorption and just over 70,000 square feet of negative Class C absorption. This clearly demonstrates the flight-toquality trend that we have been reporting in leasing activity over the past several quarters.
2 VACANCY Minor demand gains were not enough to lower the vacancy in Suburban Maryland, which stayed at 15.4 percent in the fourth quarter. This is up 40 basis points from the fourth quarter in Montgomery County vacancy rose by 10 basis points from the third quarter and 40 basis points from a year ago to finish the year at 14 percent. The North Bethesda and North Silver Spring submarkets saw significant spikes in vacancy from 2012, which rose by 180 and 450 basis points this year, respectively. Overall, the Suburban Maryland market continues to see the flight to quality which is evident in the vacancy rate both this quarter and throughout Class A vacancy for the market decreased in the fourth quarter by 20 basis points to end at 15.2 percent. In contrast, the Class B vacancy increased 20 basis points this quarter and nearly 100 basis points to 17.2 percent since the beginning of the year. RENTAL RATES For the second quarter in a row, the average rental rate dropped slightly falling from $25.27 to $25.15 per square foot during the fourth quarter. Rental rates should remain in the mid $20s range as upcoming new construction is delivering largely pre-leased and demand drivers continue to be few. Montgomery County continues to hold the premium on pricing over Prince Georges County where the delta is over eight dollars. However, Montgomery County saw a decrease in rents of seven cents from the third quarter to end the year at $27.75, and nearly a dollar per square foot decrease from the fourth quarter of DELIVERIES/CONSTRUCTION Once again there were no significant deliveries in the Suburban Maryland market. Unlike both the District and Northern Virginia, construction has been tempered since the recession. There are several sites that are currently under construction but the majority of the projects are significantly preleased. The one exception is the trophy office building at 4500 East West Highway which is scheduled to deliver in July of This speculative development is located in the heart of downtown Bethesda, but despite its excellent location, it has yet to sign its first lease.
3 SIGNIFICANT Q CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS Project Submarket RBA Delivery Lead Tenant 5601 Fishers Lane Rockville 490,998 Q NIAID (BTS) 275 N Washington Street Rockville 23,391 Q Bank of America 4500 East West Highway CBD Bethesda/Chevy Chase 226,566 Q None Pike and Rose Rockville 169,644 Q None RECENT LEASE TRANSACTIONS Tenant Address Submarket Size (SF) Type Nuclear Regulatory Commission Rockville Pike North Bethesda 347,922 Renewal Indian Health Services Twinbrook Parkway Rockville 77,521 Renewal National Institute of Health 9800 Medical Center Drive North Rockville 75,000 Relocation Xerox Milestone Center Drive Germantown 68,000 Renewal
4 OUTLOOK While Suburban Maryland is often considered third place in the region in terms of market expectations, it has quietly maintained stable market fundamentals in The largest reason for this stability is the lack of speculative construction in the market. Suburban Maryland ownership has been far more disciplined with construction of new product. The District and Northern Virginia continue to build new inventory at near pre-recession levels. While Maryland in the short term should see some improving market fundamentals, the lack of quality development will hold them at a distinct disadvantage when trying to attract future high end tenants. A number of buildings with limited access to the Metro are likely to see their vacancy spike upwards as their tenant s leases expire in the upcoming quarters. In some cases instead of increasing capital expenditures in an effort to attract tenants, some building owners in Rockville may end up taking their buildings offline and shutting them down because of the shrinking size and number of Suburban Maryland focused tenants. For this reason Suburban Maryland owners have been bearish on new construction and we will likely continue to see that trend continue. SUBURBAN MARYLAND Q4 MARKET STATS SUBURBAN MARYLAND Class Bldgs RBA Direct Sublease Total Total Vacnacy Prior Qtr Leasing SF* Net Absoprtion Current Qtr SF Net YTD Weight Avg Asking Lease A ,198, % 0.9% 15.2% 15.4% 778,551 78, ,835 $ B ,154, % 0.6% 16.1% 16.0% 550,645 (60,431) (578,940) $ C 308 9,036, % 0.1% 8.0% 8.3% 42,304 21,435 77,622 $ All Classes 1,355 92,389, % 0.7% 14.9% 15.0% 1,371,500 39,510 (163,483) $ Submarket/ Class Bldgs RBA Direct Sublease Total Total Vacnacy Prior Qtr Leasing SF* Net Absoprtion Current Qtr SF Net YTD Weight Avg Asking Lease BETHESDA A 25 5,446, % 0.5% 9.6% 10.2% 209,021 33, ,968 $ B 70 5,450, % 1.1% 9.5% 9.3% 200,658 (13,151) (111,463) $ C , % 0.0% 4.0% 5.9% 11,578 12,261 (3,103) $ Subtotal ,551, % 0.8% 9.3% 9.5% 421,257 32,167 92,402 $ MONTGOMERY COUNTY GAITHERSBURG A 11 2,382, % 0.3% 11.6% 12.2% 3,389 12,259 55,190 $ B 72 3,850, % 0.2% 11.5% 10.7% 60,175 (29,186) (5,091) $ C , % 0.1% 6.9% 6.8% 3,105 (694) 30,147 $ Subtotal 111 7,023, % 0.2% 11.0% 10.8% 66,669 (17,621) 80,246 $ GERMANTOWN A 12 1,314, % 1.2% 24.3% 24.3% 70,245-29,537 $ B 40 1,725, % 0.0% 13.4% 13.1% 8,982 (5,393) (16,862) $ C 1 13, % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% n/a Subtotal 53 3,053, % 0.5% 18.0% 17.9% 79,227 (5,393) 13,075 $ KENSINGTON A 2 165, % 1.8% 9.5% 10.8% 2,056 2,056 1,863 $ B 31 1,246, % 0.0% 28.3% 28.6% 9,823 (16,756) (1,622) $ C , % 3.6% 6.7% 7.1% 2,830 1, $ Subtotal 48 1,695, % 0.8% 22.8% 23.3% 14,709 (13,474) 567 $ NORTH BETHESDA A 32 7,014, % 0.8% 18.2% 15.1% 12,170 (217,489) (75,040) $ B 46 3,124, % 0.6% 14.6% 15.9% 119,211 41,262 (127,539) $ C , % 0.0% 8.6% 8.7% 2, ,220 $ Subtotal 97 11,011, % 0.7% 16.4% 14.8% 133,396 (175,488) (192,359) $ NORTH ROCKVILLE A 59 7,905, % 1.9% 15.0% 15.4% 23,379 28,860 (2,790) $ B 73 4,698, % 1.8% 17.7% 16.3% 22,272 (67,634) (144,537) $ C , % 0.0% 14.1% 14.1% - - (578) $ Subtotal ,285, % 1.8% 15.9% 15.6% 45,651 (38,774) (147,905) $ NORTH SILVER SPRING A 7 1,399, % 0.0% 1.3% 1.3% 3,953-10,153 $ B 40 1,881, % 0.6% 21.5% 21.5% 9,137 (902) (161,876) $ C 6 150, % 0.0% 6.7% 5.1% - (2,429) (4,079) $ Subtotal 53 3,432, % 0.3% 12.6% 12.5% 13,090 (3,331) (155,802) $ 23.29
5 Subtotal 53 3,432, % 0.3% 12.6% 12.5% 13,090 (3,331) (155,802) $ Submarket/ Direct Sublease Total Total Vacnacy Leasing Net Absoprtion Net Weight Avg Asking Bldgs RBA OUTLYING MC E A - - n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a B , % 0.0% 8.9% 8.9% - - (5,241) $ C 7 150, % 0.0% 5.0% 5.0% - - 1,176 $ Subtotal , % 0.0% 7.7% 7.7% - - (4,065) $ MONTGOMERY COUNTY OUTLYING MC W A 4 719, % 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% - - (1,160) $ B 4 78, % 0.0% 17.3% 15.6% - (1,386) 3,141 $ C 1 13, % 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% n/a Subtotal 9 810, % 0.0% 3.4% 3.3% - (1,386) 1,981 $ ROCKVILLE A 26 3,917, % 0.7% 18.9% 20.2% 77,521 53, ,525 $ B 59 3,878, % 0.4% 9.2% 10.2% 22,113 38,968 68,828 $ C 37 1,487, % 0.0% 5.8% 5.9% 1,991 1,614 11,506 $ Subtotal 122 9,282, % 0.4% 12.7% 13.7% 101,625 94, ,859 $ SILVER SPRING A 19 4,193, % 1.0% 10.8% 11.4% 117,861 22,059 (28,110) $ B 40 1,991, % 0.4% 8.9% 10.0% 22,081 22,378 31,536 $ C , % 0.0% 14.0% 14.5% 7,780 4,103 24,726 $ Subtotal 92 7,031, % 0.7% 10.7% 11.4% 147,722 48,540 28,152 $ MONTGOMERY COUNTY A ,457, % 1.0% 14.0% 13.8% 519,595 (65,741) 333,136 $ B ,269, % 0.7% 13.5% 13.5% 474,452 (31,800) (470,726) $ C 190 5,944, % 0.2% 8.5% 8.8% 29,299 16,820 70,741 $ Subtotal ,671, % 0.8% 13.3% 13.2% 1,023,346 (80,721) (66,849) $ PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTY Submarket/ Class Bldgs RBA Direct Sublease Total Total Vacnacy Prior Qtr Leasing SF* Net Absoprtion Current Qtr SF Net YTD Weight Avg Asking Lease BELTSVILLE A 6 767, % 1.0% 21.5% 40.5% 7, ,225 43,594 $ B , % 0.0% 27.2% 25.4% - (13,070) (9,916) $ C 8 205, % 0.0% 3.1% 1.0% - (4,313) (3,633) $ Subtotal 30 1,684, % 0.5% 21.7% 29.3% 7, ,842 30,045 $ BOWIE A 6 688, % 1.1% 20.1% 21.5% 6,242 9,429 46,500 $ B 31 1,015, % 0.4% 6.9% 9.1% 5,156 23,033 5,901 $ C 6 161, % 0.0% 4.1% 4.1% $ Subtotal 43 1,866, % 0.6% 11.5% 13.2% 11,398 32,462 53,001 $ BRANCH AVENUE A - - n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a B 38 1,310, % 0.0% 9.9% 10.5% 6,789 8,010 (35,055) $ C , % 0.0% 3.2% 3.7% - 2,730 2,043 $ Subtotal 56 1,940, % 0.0% 7.7% 8.3% 6,789 10,740 (33,012) $ COLLEGE PARK A 10 1,847, % 0.0% 5.5% 5.5% - - (89,062) $ B 32 1,852, % 0.2% 35.3% 32.6% 1,200 (49,330) (69,165) $ C , % 0.0% 14.3% 14.3% 850 (157) (27,131) $ Subtotal 69 4,546, % 0.1% 19.3% 18.2% 2,050 (49,487) (185,358) $ UPPER MARLBORO A 1 54, % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% n/a B 4 65, % 0.0% 6.3% 3.0% - (2,132) (2,932) $ C 6 76, % 0.0% 5.9% 2.6% - (2,557) (1,564) $ Subtotal , % 0.0% 4.4% 2.0% - (4,689) (4,496) $ GREENBELT A 18 2,166, % 1.2% 31.3% 31.5% 17,717 4,144 7,194 $ B 40 1,389, % 0.6% 22.7% 23.0% 5,224 3,662 25,621 $ C 3 79, % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% $ Subtotal 61 3,634, % 1.0% 27.4% 27.6% 22,941 7,806 32,815 $ LANDOVER
6 Submarket/ Direct Sublease Total Total Vacnacy Leasing Net Absoprtion Net Weight Avg Asking GREENBELT A 18 2,166, % 1.2% 31.3% 31.5% 17,717 4,144 7,194 $ B 40 1,389, % 0.6% 22.7% 23.0% 5,224 3,662 25,621 $ C 3 79, % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% $ Subtotal 61 3,634, % 1.0% 27.4% 27.6% 22,941 7,806 32,815 $ PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTY LANDOVER A 8 1,139, % 0.0% 23.6% 24.0% 49,516 4,444 (5,877) $ B 36 1,896, % 0.0% 24.4% 24.0% 24,952 (6,581) (23,188) $ C , % 0.0% 2.9% 2.4% - - (365) $ Subtotal 60 3,400, % 0.0% 21.8% 21.3% 74,468 (2,137) (29,430) $ LANHAM A 2 447, % 2.2% 3.9% 3.9% - - 2,087 n/a B 33 1,361, % 0.2% 25.9% 26.2% 4,681 3,771 11,499 $ C 8 144, % 0.0% 5.9% 5.9% - (88) 6,683 $ Subtotal 43 1,952, % 0.6% 19.4% 19.6% 4,681 3,683 20,269 $ LAUREL A 6 840, % 0.0% 8.3% 7.6% 120,904 (6,277) 16,336 $ B 42 1,514, % 0.4% 22.1% 21.6% 23,419 (7,844) (19,745) $ C , % 0.0% 2.6% 9.8% 3,800 2,900 3,268 $ 8.42 Subtotal 59 2,630, % 0.2% 15.7% 15.8% 148,123 (11,221) (141) $ NATIONAL HARBOR A 4 460, % 3.3% 22.6% 19.8% - (12,718) (16,073) $ B , % 0.0% 17.9% 20.0% 4,772 11,850 12,966 $ C 6 167, % 0.0% 14.4% 17.5% 7,355 5,100 22,254 $ Subtotal 27 1,183, % 1.3% 19.2% 19.6% 12,127 4,232 19,147 $ PENN AVE CORRIDOR A 3 328, % 0.0% 63.5% 63.5% 56, n/a B 8 211, % 0.0% 15.5% 15.5% - - (4,200) $ C 9 140, % 0.0% 5.8% 6.5% 1,000 1,000 4,726 $ Subtotal , % 0.0% 36.7% 36.8% 57,629 1, $ PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTY A 64 8,741, % 0.8% 20.1% 21.7% 258, ,247 4,699 $ B ,884, % 0.2% 22.3% 22.0% 76,193 (28,631) (108,214) $ C 118 3,092, % 0.0% 7.0% 7.6% 13,005 4,615 6,881 $ Subtotal ,717, % 0.4% 19.5% 20.0% 348, ,231 (96,634) $
7 DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS FOUND IN THIS REPORT Deliveries: Buildings that complete construction during a specified period of time. In order for space to be considered delivered, a certificate of occupancy must have been issued for the property. Direct Space: Space that is being offered for lease directly from the landlord or owner of a building, as opposed to space being offered in a building by another tenant (or broker of tenant) trying to sublet a space that has already been leased. Existing Inventory: The square footage of buildings that have received a certificate of occupancy and are able to be occupied by tenants. It does not include space in buildings that are either planned, under construction or under renovation. Leasing : The volume of square footage that is committed to and signed under a lease obligation for a specific building or market in a given period of time. It includes direct leases, subleases and renewals of existing leases. It also includes any pre-leasing activity in planned, under construction, or under renovation buildings. Rentable Building Area (RBA): The total square footage of a building that can be occupied by, or assigned to a tenant for the purpose of determining a tenant s rental obligation. This report tracks buildings with 10,000 square feet or more of speculative space. Includes competitive space in Class A, B and C single and multitenant buildings. Excludes buildings that were built with the intent to house only medical users and government owner-occupied buildings. Sublease Space: Space that has been leased by a tenant and is being offered for lease back to the market by the tenant with the lease obligation. Sublease space is sometimes referred to as sublet space. Vacant Space: Space that is not currently occupied by a tenant, regardless of any lease obligation that may be on the space. Inventory: Includes all existing multi- or singletenant leased and owner-occupied office properties greater than or equal to 10,000 square feet (net rentable area). Does not include government buildings. Net : The net change in occupied space over a given period of time. Unless otherwise noted, Net includes direct and sublease space. Weighted Average Asking Rental s: Weighted by the total square feet available for direct lease. Data is based on Full Service Gross rents, and includes all costs associated with occupying the space, including taxes, insurance, maintenance, janitorial service and utilities. Reports on an annual per square foot basis. 482 offices in 62 countries on 6 continents United States: 140 Canada: 42 Latin America: 20 Asia Pacific: 195 EMEA: 85 $1.95 billion in annual revenue 1.12 billion square feet under management Over 13,500 professionals FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT: Rob Hartley Director of Research robert.hartley@colliers.com TEL FAX Colliers International Tysons Corner 8045 Leesburg Pike Suite 401 Vienna, VA TEL FAX Accelerating success.
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