Orange County Office Market Continues A Positive Stride Into 2016
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- Jonah Elliott
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1 OFFICE ORANGE COUNTY MARKET REPORT Continues A Positive Stride Into 2016 MARKET OVERVIEW MARKET INDICATORS - VACANCY 12.8% NET ABSORPTION 143,900 CONSTRUCTION 594,300 RENTAL RATE $2.31 P FSG UNEMPLOYMENT 4.2% The Orange County office market continued a positive stride into fourth quarter Total vacancy decreased 20 basis points to 12.8% from the previous quarter s rate of 13.0%. Total net absorption remained positive for the seventh consecutive quarter recording at 143,900 square feet (). As market conditions continue to strive forward and vacancy rates decline, overall direct weighted average asking rental rates increased to $2.31 per square foot (P), per month, Full Service Gross (FSG) marking a 18% increase from the start of Construction activity remains limited as there are currently three buildings under construction. Orange County witnessed a flurry of sales activity during fourth quarter as investors continue to take advantage of low interest rates as the Fed just raised interest rates by 25 basis points. John Hancock RE acquired the two building Koll Center Newport Portfolio in Newport Beach from Cornerstone for $352 P, Invesco acquired 2&3 Polaris Way in Aliso Viejo for $422 P from Fluor Corporation, NY Life Insurance Compnay acquired Von Karman Ave in Irvine for $365 P from American Realty Advisors and Banc of Ca Na acquired 3 MacArthur Pl in Santa Ana for $309 P. MARKET TRENDS - >> Total vacancy rate decreased from 13.0% to 12.8% >> Weighted average asking rental rate increased from $2.26 P FSG to $2.31 P FSG >> Leasing activity decreased from 1.8 million to 1.7 million >> 143,900 of net absorption recorded in 4Q HISTORICAL VACANCY VS RENTS Q $ P PER MONTH (FSG) RENTS VACANCY $ % $ % $ % $2.25 $ % $ % $ % $2.05 8% $2.00 6% $1.95 $1.90 4% $1.85 2% $1.80 0% 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 % VACANT (TOTAL) HISTORICAL NET ABSORPTION & CONSTRUCTION COMPLETIONS Q SQUARE FEET 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 0 (500,000) (1,000,000) NET ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION COMPLETIONS 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 1 Colliers International continuously refines its database. As a result, data reflected in this report may not be consistent with data reported in previous quarters.
2 MARKET REPORT OFFICE ORANGE COUNTY ORANGE COUNTY DEMOGRAPHICS >> POPULATION: 3,160,437 (2015 Estimate) 3,314,198 (2020 Projection) 4.9% (Growth ) >> HOUSEHOLD INCOME: $99,514 (Average) $72,856 (Median) >> JOB GROWTH: 2.5% (past 12 months) >> UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.2% (as of November 2015) VACANCY During the fourth quarter of 2015, the total vacancy rate decreased 20 basis points to 12.8% from 13.0% reported in the previous quarter. Tenants looking for spaces ranging from 5,000 to 20,000 can still select from a wide range of options. However, the number of large blocks of contiguous available space over 100,000 ; which is less than twenty, continues to decrease resulting in fewer options. Overall Class A Airport Area vacancy remained flat at 12.5% from one quarter ago. NET ABSORPTION Net absorption remained positive for the seventh consecutive quarter recording at 143,900 during the fourth quarter. Two of the five Orange County submarkets experienced negative absorption. A large amount of positive absorption resulted from Cox Communication s move-in of 68,800 at Towne Center Dr in Foothill Ranch and Fisker Automotive s move-in of 40,400 at 2975 Red Hill Ave in Costa Mesa. The following tenants located in the Airport Area moved or downsized from their space: Pacific Communications (65,000 ), Allianz (51,000 ), Emulex Corporation (50,000 ) and Ernst & Young (45,000 ). These move-outs/ downsizes caused the Airport Area absorption to record at -5,100. The North County submarket recorded the highest amount of positive net absorption at 82,900. UNEMPLOYMENT November 2015 figures from the Employment Development Department of California showed total nonfarm employment in Orange County reached 1,570,500 jobs as the unemployment rate decreased to 4.2%. This was an increase of 39,000 jobs over the past twelve months. Construction and leisure and hospitality showed the biggest net gain over the past year, adding 8,200 jobs. Nearly 80% of the growth was in specialty trade contractors. Leisure and hospitality services added 9,100 payroll jobs. Financial activities posted the largest year-over loss, dropping by 1,100 jobs. VACANCY BY SUBMARKET NET ABSORPTION BY SUBMARKET 18% SUBLEASE VACANCY DIRECT VACANCY 0.5% 100,000 82,900 16% 56,200 61,400 % VACANT 14% 12% 10% 8% 1.1% 9.4% 0.0% 11.6% 0.5% 12.1% 1.5% 11.3% 16.3% SQUARE FEET 0 (51,500) (5,100) 6% 4% SOUTH WEST AIRPORT NORTH CENTRAL (100,000) CENTRAL AIRPORT SOUTH WEST NORTH 2 Source: California Employment Development Department, November 2015 data P. 2 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
3 MARKET REPORT OFFICE ORANGE COUNTY OFFICE OVERVIEW EXISTING PROPERTIES VACANCY ACTIVITY ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION RENTS Submarket/ Class Bldgs Total Inventory Direct Sublease Total Total Prior Qtr Leasing Activity Current Qtr Leasing Activity YTD Net Absorption Current Qtr Net Absorption YTD Completions Current Qtr Under Construction Weighted Avg Asking Lease Rate AIRPORT A ,136, % 0.7% 13.3% 13.3% 494,900 2,239,600 8, , $2.75 B ,624, % 0.2% 12.8% 12.6% 249,200 1,149,400 (20,200) 38, $2.37 C 61 2,802, % 0.0% 5.5% 5.7% 50, ,400 6,700 88, $1.85 SUBTOTAL ,563, % 0.5% 12.5% 12.5% 794,400 4,375,400 (5,100) 478, $2.57 CENTRAL A 29 5,620, % 1.1% 16.0% 15.0% 101, ,400 (58,400) 312, $2.22 B 78 5,922, % 0.1% 16.8% 16.9% 39, ,400 7,000 66, ,865 $1.87 C 59 2,302, % 0.0% 18.8% 18.8% 57, ,800 (100) (10,300) 0 0 $1.41 SUBTOTAL ,845, % 0.5% 16.8% 13.8% 198, ,600 (51,500) 368, $1.91 NORTH A 14 1,633, % 4.5% 12.8% 14.7% 53, ,400 30,300 (77,900) 0 72,343 $2.23 B 56 4,984, % 0.6% 11.8% 13.0% 96, ,400 61, , $1.92 C , % 0.7% 17.4% 16.5% 50,300 87,000 (8,700) 35, $1.47 SUBTOTAL 92 7,576, % 1.5% 12.7% 13.8% 200, ,800 82, , ,343 $1.89 SOUTH A 20 3,328, % 1.5% 6.6% 9.9% 63, , ,400 40, ,044 $3.05 B ,623, % 1.0% 10.9% 10.2% 338,200 1,668,900 (79,200) 78, $2.33 C , % 0.1% 21.3% 24.7% 11,400 48,900 26,000 57, $2.16 SUBTOTAL ,704, % 1.1% 10.5% 10.8% 413,300 2,024,900 56, , ,044 $2.39 WEST A 8 1,029, % 0.0% 8.2% 13.0% 54, ,300 49,300 63, $2.54 B 54 2,883, % 0.0% 11.7% 11.6% 22, ,300 (3,500) (74,600) 0 0 $2.07 C 33 1,377, % 0.0% 14.1% 15.2% 38,700 76,000 15,600 16, $1.75 SUBTOTAL 95 5,290, % 0.0% 11.6% 12.8% 115, ,600 61,400 5, $2.03 MARKET TOTAL A ,748, % 1.0% 12.9% 13.3% 767,100 3,270, , , ,387 $2.63 B ,038, % 0.4% 12.6% 12.5% 746,500 3,588,400 (34,600) 351, ,865 $2.19 C 192 8,193, % 0.1% 13.5% 14.0% 208,200 1,320,100 39, , $1.65 TOTAL 1,015 81,980, % 0.6% 12.8% 13.0% 1,721,800 8,179, ,900 1,229, ,252 $2.31 Note: revisions to the inventory base were made effective, historical data reported here reflect these revisions and may not match data reported in previous quarters. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 3
4 MARKET REPORT OFFICE ORANGE COUNTY CONSTRUCTION >> Direct weighted average asking rentals rates increased to $2.31 P FSG >> Four out of five submarkets recorded an increase in average asking rents There were no office developments delivered to the market during third quarter of Currently, there are three office properties under construction. The Irvine Company s development at 200 Spectrum Center Drive in Irvine is expected to be completed by second quarter The new office building is 21 stories consisting of 425,044. This will be the first new office tower built in the Irvine Spectrum within the last seven years. The Source Tower is a 7-story building located in Buena Park totaling 72,343 and is expected to be completed fourth quarter of Last, is a creative office conversion located at Red Hill Ave in Tustin. The creative office building is expected to be completed by first quarter of ACTIVITY Leasing activity during the fourth quarter of 2015 totaled 1.7 million square feet, a decrease from 1.8 million square feet of transactions completed during third quarter Of the total leasing activity, 46% (794,400 ) occurred in the Airport Area submarket, followed by the South County submarket (413,300 ), North County (200,000 ), Central County (198,300 ), and West County (115,800 ). Buildings categorized as Class A recorded the largest amount with 767,100 of leasing activity and buildings categorized as Class C recorded the smallest amount with 208,200 of leasing activity. RENTAL RATES The direct weighted average asking rental rate in Orange County increased over the fourth quarter to $2.31 P FSG, up from $2.26 P FSG in the previous quarter and also up from $2.08 P FSG recorded one year ago. Class A weighted average asking rental rates increased to $2.63 P FSG from $2.54 P FSG from the previous quarter. Class B weighted average asking rental rates also increased to $2.19 P FSG from $2.15 P FSG. The high-caliber properties in Irvine Spectrum and Newport Center have the most consistent rental rate appreciation. Moving into 2016, rental rates are expected to increase by 12%-15%. CLASS A WEIGHTED AVERAGE ASKING LEASE RATES LEASING ACTIVITY BY SUBMARKET $P PER MONTH (FSG) $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $2.22 $2.23 $2.54 $2.75 $3.05 SQUARE FEET 900, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,400 $0.00 CENTRAL NORTH WEST AIRPORT SOUTH 0 WEST CENTRAL NORTH SOUTH AIRPORT P. 4 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
5 MARKET REPORT OFFICE ORANGE COUNTY OUTLOOK The fourth quarter of 2015 ended with positive activity as vacancy rates continue to decline and asking rental rates continue to increase. The increase in activity stems from confident economic conditions and job growth. Orange County payroll employment is 20,000 above the employment peak before the begining of the recession. Per the Chapman Economic Forecast, the Orange County 2016 job growth rate is expected to record at 2.5%. There is approximately 4.6 million of proposed office construction in the pipeline including 800,000 of creative office space. These positive market trends bode well for the Orange County office market. HISTORICAL LEASING ACTIVITY Q MARKET DESCRIPTION Orange County is a moderately large suburban office market comprised of 82 million square feet and represents 29% of the total inventory in office buildings 25,000 square feet and greater in the Los Angeles basin. It is a relatively new and moderate-density market with 41% of the space in Class A buildings. Orange County is home to a broad mix of firms, including significant representation from the finance, insurance, telecommunications, high-tech, real estate, engineering and professional-service sectors. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE United States, California & Orange County November ,200,000 6% 5.7% 2,000,000 1,800,000 4% 5.0% 4.2% 1,600,000 1,400,000 2% 1,200,000 1,000,000 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 0% UNITED STATES CALIFORNIA ORANGE COUNTY RECENT TRANSACTIONS & MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS SALES ACTIVITY PROPERTY ADDRESS SIZE SALE PRICE PRICE P BUYER SELLER Koll Center Newport Portfolio, Newport Beach 296,600 $104,500,000 $352/P John Hancock Real Estate Cornerstone RE Advisers, Inc. 2&3 Polaris Way, Aliso Viejo 199,300 $84,250,000 $422/P Invesco Advisors, Inc. Fluor Corporation Von Karman Ave, Irvine 226,100 $82,500,000 $365/P New York Life Insurance Company American Realty Advisors 3 MacArthur Pl, Santa Ana 246,900 $76,366,500 $309/P Banc of California TA Realty McCabe Corporate Center, Irvine 109,500 $25,900,000 $236/PFS Swift Real Estate Partners Industrial commerical Properties LEASING ACTIVITY PROPERTY ADDRESS LEASED LEASE TYPE BLDG CLASS LESSEE LESSOR Jamboree Rd, Irvine 100,000 Renewal A Impac Mortgage Holdings, Inc. Scholle Corporation 520 Newport Center Dr, Newport Beach 88,330 New Direct A Bank of America Merrill Lynch The Irvine Company San Canyon Ave, Irvine 80,888 New Direct A Western Growers The Irvine Company 3161 Michelson Dr, Irvine 78,300 Renewal A Gibson Dunn John Hancock Real Estate 5161 California Ave, Irvine 46,930 Renewal B LPA The Irvine Company MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS PROJECT DEVELOPER SIZE SUBMARKET STATUS ESTIMATED COMPLETION 200 Spectrum Center, Irvine The Irvine Company 425,044 South County Under Construction 1Q Red Hill Ave, Tustin (Creative Office Conversion) Bixby Land Company 96,865 Central County Under Construction 1Q Beach Blvd, Buena Park M+D Properties 72,343 North County Under Construction 1Q 2016 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 5
6 MARKET REPORT OFFICE ORANGE COUNTY DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN THIS REPORT Total Rentable Square Feet: Office space in buildings with 25,000 square feet or more of speculative office space. Includes competitive space in Class A, B and C singletenant and multi-tenant buildings. Excludes non-competitive owner-occupied buildings, buildings that include 30 percent or greater of medical or retail space, and space that is underconstruction, under-renovation or off-market. Net Absorption: Net change in occupied square feet from one period to the next (includes the impact of change in vacant space available for sublease). Leasing Activity: Square feet leased from all known transactions completed during the quarter. Excludes lease renewals. 502 offices in 67 countries on 6 continents United States: 140 Canada: 31 Latin America: 24 Asia Pacific: 199 EMEA: 108 >> $2.3 billion in annual revenue >> 1.7 billion square feet under management >> Over 16,200 professionals Class A Space: Space that an image-conscious company would lease for its headquarters. Typically, this space has a very high level of finish and an excellent location, and commands the highest rents in the market. Class B Space: Highly functional, attractive space, but less prestigious than Class A Space, and commanding lower rental rates. Class C Space: Functional, competitive space, but with a lower level of finish and/or a less desirable location than with Class B Space, and commanding lower rental rates. Low-Rise: Buildings with a total of 4 floors or less. Weighted Average Asking Rental Rates: Weighted by the total square feet available for direct lease. Data is based on Full Service Gross rents, and includes all costs associated with occupying the space, including taxes, insurance, maintenance, janitorial service and utilities. Reported on a monthly, per basis. Space Added (Net): Total square feet added during the quarter via construction completions, including renovated space returned to market, less total square feet taken off-market due to demolitions or conversions. Under Construction: Includes buildings that are in some phase of construction, beginning with foundation work and ending with the issuance of a Certificate of Occupancy. UNITED STATES: Orange County Office License No Park Plaza, 12th Floor Irvine, CA TEL FAX CAUDILL, ROBERT Regional Director/Orange County MATTESON, CAITLIN Research Director Research Services PUPIL, MARTIN President, Western Region Mid-Rise: Buildings with a total of 5 to 13 floors. High-Rise: Buildings with 14 or more floors. Technical Note: Colliers International is continuously refining its database. The data shown in the historical tables and graphics in this report have been adjusted to take into account these changes in the database. Direct : Space in existing buildings that is vacant and immediately available during the quarter for direct lease, plus space that is vacant but not available for direct lease or sublease (for example, that is being held for a future commitment). Total : Space in existing buildings that is vacant and immediately available during the quarter for direct lease or for sublease, plus space that is vacant but not available for direct lease or sublease. This report has been prepared by Colliers International for general information only. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable and no representation is made as to the accuracy thereof. Colliers International does not guarantee, warrant or represent that the information contained in this document is correct. Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. Colliers International excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from. This report and other research materials may be found on our website at Accelerating success. P. 6 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
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