The Improvement of the Industrial Market

Transcription

1 Research & Forecast Report Long Island industrial MARKET Q The Improvement of the Industrial Market Rose Liu Research & Financial Analyst Long Island Takeaways The overall economy on Long Island improved in Q with warmer weather conditions. Long Island s unemployment rate was down to 4.5%, a 0.4% decrease from a year ago. Gas prices on Long Island kept rising but remained steady by the end of Q2 averaging at $3.00 per gallon which were roughly $1.00 lower than the prior year. The estimate of GDP growth for Q is between 2.0% and 2.5% primarily due to US trade export deficit reported for April. New York State Manufacturing Index was up to 3 in May yet dropped to negative in June. Economic growth combined with a stagnant product base created market fundamentals, propelling improvement in Q The Long Island industrial vacancy rate dropped by 10 basis points (bps) to 4.6% in Q Nassau and Suffolk Counties held vacancy rates of 6.1% and 3.9% respectively. Driven by the positive absorption and various strong market conditions, the Long Island average asking rent continued its upward trend, reaching $9.71 per square foot (psf) triple net (NNN) in Q2 2015, a 0.3% increase from Q Net absorption on Long Island strengthened in Q2 at 177,800 square feet (sf), with 21,500 sf in Nassau County and 156,300 sf in Suffolk County; however it was still 14.1% lower than a year ago. There were a variety of major sale transactions complete during Q2 2015; yet Long Island lease activity plunged to 290,000 sf from 894,300 sf in Q1. Market Indicators Relative to prior period VACANCY NET ABSORPTION Summary Statistics Q Long Island Industrial Market Nassau Suffolk Long Island* Vacancy Rate 6.1% 3.9% 4.6% Change From Q (basis points) Net Absorption (Thousand Square Feet) Vacancy Rate (Warehouses) Vacancy Rate (Flex Buildings) Nassau Q Nassau Q3 2015* Suffolk Q % 3.5% 4.3% 6.7% 7.5% 7.2% Suffolk Q3 2015* CONSTRUCTION RENTAL RATE** Note: *Projected **Rental rates for current quarter are for suburban area. Asking Rents Per Square Foot Per Year Suburban $10.33 $9.00 $9.71 Change From Q % -1.0% 0.3% Suburban Warehouses $10.60 $8.97 $9.54 Suburban Flex Buildings $15.89 $14.33 $15.73 *Long Island Industrial Market refers to Nassau & Suffolk Counties; 10,000 square feet and above

2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Percentage Change From Preceding Period Unemployment Trends - Nassau & Suffolk GDP % Change Quarter-over-Quarter Unemployed in Thousands 6.00 Unemployment Rate (1.00) (2.00) % Change % 7.4% 6.1% 4.9% 4.5% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% (3.00) Source: US Department of Commerce Vacancy The existing inventory on Long Island ending June 30 was 156 million square feet. Driven by the increased absorption, the Long Island vacancy rate dropped 10 bps to 4.6% in Q The Nassau County vacancy rate declined to 6.1%, and the Suffolk County vacancy rate decreased to 3.9%. Warehouses vacancy rate also decreased by 10 bps to 4.3%, while flex buildings reported a 0.1% increase in availability rate. The Western Nassau submarket had the lowest vacancy rate, a 0.3% decrease to 1.9% in Q The existing inventory in the Central Suffolk was in excess of 28 million square feet with a vacancy rate of 4.3%. The occupancy rate improved throughout the Long Island region with the exception of the Central Nassau submarket, with a rate of 3.6% in Q2, a 0.2% increase from Q1. The decrease in vacancy rate was driven by the increased manufacturing activity during the quarter even though it slowed in June. Source: NYS Department of Labor Rental Rate The positive absorption and various strong market conditions are pushing up industrial rents. The Long Island asking rents averaged at $9.71 psf NNN, a 0.31% increase from Q and roughly 10% higher than a year ago. The average asking rents were $10.33 psf NNN and $9.00 psf NNN in Nassau and Suffolk Counties respectively. Continuing the advance in Q2 2015, the average asking prices for warehouses improved to $9.54 psf NNN; however, flex buildings kept declining in the rental rate quarterover-quarter, reaching $15.73 psf NNN in Q2 2015, nearly 20% lower since the peak by the end of All of the submarkets saw a decline in the actual rental rates excluding the Eastern Nassau submarket, which increased $1.00 psf from Q1. The Central Nassau submarket boasted the highest rental rates in both warehouses and flex buildings, reaching $11.61 psf NNN and $20.00 psf NNN respectively. The leasing prices in the Central Suffolk submarket are reflective of the averages in all other submarkets on Long Island. Update Vacancy Rates, Asking Rents, & Absorption Vacancy Rates Average Asking Rents Net Absorption (in Thousands) 2Q15 1Q15 Western Nassau Central Nassau Southern Nassau Eastern Nassau Western Suffolk Southwestern Suffolk Central Suffolk Western Nassau Central Nassau Southern Nassau Eastern Nassau Western Suffolk Southwestern Suffolk Central Suffolk Western Nassau Central Nassau Southern Nassau Eastern Nassau Western Suffolk Southwestern Suffolk Central Suffolk 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% $0 $5 $10 $15 (100) Source: CoStar & Colliers International Research 2 Long Island Research & Forecast Report Q Long Island Colliers International

3 Absorption Net absorption on Long Island was strong in Q2 at 177,800 square feet (sf), broken out into 21,500 sf in Nassau County and 156,300 sf in Suffolk County. However, net absorption was still 14.1% lower than a year ago and was accounted for only one fifth of the absorption since its peak in Q Although net absorption for flex buildings improved quarter-over-quarter from Q4 2014, it was still showing negative 12,600 sf in Q The Western Suffolk and Central Suffolk submarkets absorbed over 271,700 sf in total with a major improvement in the Central Suffolk submarket from negative 56,300 sf in Q1 to positive 132,300 sf. Sale & Lease Activity Long Island lease activity in Q2 was down to 290,000 square feet from 894,344 square feet in Q1. Compared to a year ago, there was also a significant decline in lease activity, 836,000 square feet less than Q In the last five years, lease activity in Q also fell well below the Long Island average of 635,466 square feet. During Q2, a 26,500 square foot long-term lease was renewed by Interamerican Motor Corp at 99 Lafayette Drive in Syosset. Sale activity was robust in Suffolk County with a variety of large sales. A 55,587 square foot Class B Industrial Manufacturing building was sold for $4,548,000, equaling to $81.82 psf at 175 Kennedy Drive in Hauppauge. International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 1049 purchased a 48,825 square foot Class B Flex Light Manufacturing building at 100 Corporate Drive in Holtsville for $3.9 million or $79.88 psf. Long Island Absorption (Square Feet, in Thousands) Leasing Activity (SF) Square Feet Long Island Industrial Net Absorption (400) (200) ,000 Nassau VS. Suffolk Industrial Leasing Activity Nassau Suffolk Average 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 0 Source: CoStar & Colliers International Research Update Transaction Highlights industrial SALE ACTIVITY Property Address Town Submarket Size SF Sale Price 175 Kennedy Drive Hauppauge Suffolk Central 55,587 $4,548, Corporate Drive Holtsville Suffolk Central 48,825 $3,900, Central Avenue Hauppauge Suffolk Central 22,000 $1,925, Davids Drive Hauppage Suffolk Central 10,000 $1,350, INDUSTRIAL LEASE ACTIVITY Property Address Town Submarket Size SF Lease Type 99 Lafayette Drive Syosset Nassau Eastern 26,500 Renewal 120 Spagnoli Road Melville Suffolk Western 24,000 Lease 125 Newtown Road Plainview Nassau Eastern 15,410 Lease 1815c Broadhollow Road Farmingdale Nassau Eastern 15,000 Lease Outlook Strong economic and property market fundamentals continue the advance helping to sustain a promising outlook for the industrial market for the remainder of Although the market is tightening and very competitive due to limited inventory and strong demand, the interest rate is expected to go up, which might help lessen the pressure on the market although limited supply will offset any interest effect. Overall, the Long Island industrial market has a very positive outlook with the stronger GDP and job growth. 3 Long Island Research & Forecast Report Q Long Island Colliers International

4 UPDATE - MARKET STATISTICS SNAPSHOT LONG ISLAND - WAREHOUSES & FLEX BUILDINGS COUNTY VACANCY RATE AVERAGE ASKING RENTS 2Q15 1Q15 4Q14 3Q14 2Q15 1Q15 4Q14 3Q14 Nassau Total 6.1% 6.2% 6.1% 6.3% $10.33 $10.13 $9.73 $ ,456 Bldgs Lease 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.2% $10.33 $10.13 $9.73 $10.29 Sublease 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Suffolk Total 3.9% 4.0% 4.0% 4.1% $9.00 $9.09 $8.55 $7.84 2,915 Bldgs Lease 3.7% 3.8% 3.8% 4.0% $9.00 $9.09 $8.55 $7.84 Sublease 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Long Island Total 4.6% 4.7% 4.7% 4.8% $9.71 $9.68 $9.15 $8.93 4,371 Bldgs Lease 4.5% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% $9.71 $9.68 $9.15 $8.93 Sublease 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Warehouses - LI Total 4,046 Bldgs Lease 4.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.7% $9.54 $9.52 $9.00 $8.76 Sublease 4.2% 4.3% 4.3% 4.6% $9.54 $9.52 $9.00 $ % 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Flex Buildings - LI Total 325 Bldgs Lease 7.2% 7.1% 6.8% 6.2% $15.73 $15.89 $16.75 $17.10 Sublease 6.9% 7.0% 6.7% 6.1% $15.73 $15.89 $16.75 $ % 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 LONG ISLAND Q MARKET EXISTING INVENTORY (SF) JUNE 30, 2015 VACANCY RATE OVERALL AVERAGE ASKING RENT rental rate (warehouse) rental rate (flex buildings) net absorption (sf) net absorption (sf) current quarter YTD NASSAU Western Nassau 7,556, % $10.82 $10.43 $ ,175 10,127 Central Nassau 8,363, % $12.20 $11.61 $20.00 (19,101) (19,101) Southern Nassau 10,209, % $10.92 $10.92 $0.00 4, Eastern Nassau 23,230, % $9.47 $9.17 $ ,115 (13,735) NASSAU TOTAL* 51,792, % $10.33 $10.60 $ ,461 (15,667) SUFFOLK Western Suffolk 94,980, % $9.00 $8.97 $ , ,256 Southwestern Suffolk 9,255, % $8.94 $8.94 $ ,900 (6,540) Central Suffolk 28,899, % $9.48 $9.46 $ ,314 76,006 SUFFOLK TOTAL** 104,283, % $9.00 $8.97 $ , ,716 LONG ISLAND TOTAL 156,075, % $9.71 $9.54 $ , ,049 *Totals include all Nassau Submarkets **Totals include all Suffolk Submarkets Source: CoStar and Colliers International Research 4 Long Island Research & Forecast Report Q Long Island Colliers International

5 Featured Listings 320 oser avenue, hauppauge +/- 20,114 SF Flex Building For Sale/Lease 20,114 SF building with 18% office Corporate HQ Building part of a portfolio of contiguous properties for sale Located in the prestigious Hauppauge Industrial Park within the Town of Smithtown Infrastructure in place is perfect for R&D and manufacturing 330 oser avenue, HAUPPAUGE 108,000 SF Flex Building for Sale/Lease Fully built out as R&D with one (1) class 100,000 clean room Second floor Employee Café in building with full service commercial kitchen and outdoor patio 13,000 square foot basement with freight elevator and high ceilings ideal for additional storage 100 davids drive, hauppauge 65,500 SF Building for Sale Corporate HQ Building part of a portfolio of contiguous properties for sale Located in the prestigious Hauppauge Industrial Park within the Town of Smithtown Situated on an oversized parcel allowing for potential expansion 445 Brook avenue, deer park 12,000 SF Industrial Building for Sale 360 Waste area Gated and fenced lot Oversized parcel Heavy industrial/outside storage Huge Price reduction Copyright 2015 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. 5 Colliers International Long Island 1981 Marcus Avenue, Suite E104 Lake Success, New York colliers.com/long Island North American Research & Forecast Report Q Office Market Outlook Colliers International

6 502 offices in 67 countries on 6 continents United States: 140 Canada: 31 Latin America: 24 Asia Pacific: 199 EMEA: 108 Market Contact: Rose Liu Research & Financial Analyst Long Island Main Ext. 555 Dir rose.liu@colliers.com $2.3 billion in annual revenue 1.7 billion square feet under management 16,300 professionals and staff About Colliers International Colliers International is a global leader in commercial real estate services, with more than 16,300 professionals operating out of 502 offices in 67 countries. A subsidiary of FirstService Corporation, Colliers International delivers a full range of services to real estate occupiers, owners and investors worldwide, including global corporate solutions, brokerage, property and asset management, hotel investment sales and consulting, valuation, consulting and appraisal services, mortgage banking and insightful research. Colliers International has been recognized and ranked by the International Association of Outsourcing Professionals Global Outsourcing 100 for 10 consecutive years, more than any other real estate services firm. colliers.com Copyright 2015 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.