MARKET REPORT SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

Transcription

1 Q2 18 MARKET REPRT SAN FRANCISC BAY AREA

2 18 MARKET REPRT Q2 The Bay Area Housig Market Welcome to our Q2 Market Report. The followig pages preset the curret state of the Real Estate market throughout the etire Sa Fracisco Bay Area. We begi with ecoomic ad real estate commetary preseted i partership with the Rose Cosultig Group (RCG). We take a i-depth look at atioal ecoomic ad legislative faors ifluecig the market ad highlight local variables, icludig icreased Veture Capital (VC) fudig, populatio icrease ad employmet growth, all of which are drivig up media home prices throughout the Sa Fracisco Bay Area. For our statistical report of the regioal housig market, we take a close look at the te couties associated with the Bay Area. This report focuses primarily o detached sigle family homes, with added coverage of the sigificat codomiium market i Sa Fracisco. All data is sourced from local Multiple Listig Service (MLS) orgaizatios. The Bay Area housig market cotiues to improve, drive largely by ecoomic expasio. Risig icomes ad broad-based hirig supports elevated housig demad, ad drives home price appreciatio. For the Bay Area i particular, VC fudig is a critical force i busiess iovatio ad a key idicator of ivestor cofidece i the ecoomy. VC fudig i the Bay Area stregtheed withi the last year to $9. billio as of the first quarter of 18 the largest amout i seve quarters ad a icrease of $2.7 billio sice oe year prior. I additio to sigificat VC ivestmet, hirig is robust amogst tech-related compaies. verall employmet growth i the Bay Area cotiued to outpace the atio durig the past 24 moths, fueled largely by the stregth of the tech seor ad its ifluece o supportig ad traditioal idustries. A total of approximately 77, jobs were created withi the last 12 moths, with early 4% cocetrated i tech employmet. May people are attraed to the Bay Area despite a high cost of livig ad decliig housig affordability, because the area cotais a large iovatio epiceter with may high-wage jobs. I fa, the total Bay Area populatio rose by almost 6, people betwee 16 ad 17. Lookig ahead, the superior startup eviromet ad access to VC fudig should cotiue to attra highlyeducated talet, ad subsequetly foster tech-related expasio. I additio, deregulatio ad the Tax Cuts ad Jobs A (TCJA) should further support growth ad hirig i the tech-related idustries. Each office is idepedetly owed ad operated.

3 18 MARKET REPRT Q2 MEDIAN SALES PRICE GRWTH (YEAR-VER-YEAR) Sata Clara 18.7% Bay Area 15.9% Alameda Sa Mateo Sa Fracisco Sooma Solao 1.6% 12.6% 12.5% 1.9% 9.5% Mari Cotra Costa Sata Cruz Uited States Napa % 7.4% 6.5% 6.5% 5.2% 4.% 5% 1% 15% % Robust local ecoomic growth, low mortgage rates ad limited ivetory cotributed to risig home prices i recet years, with media home prices reachig record highs i may areas. The Bay Area media sigle family sales price icreased by $14, withi the last year to $1,, as of the secod quarter 18. Media home price growth i Sata Clara Couty outpaced both the Bay Area ad the atio withi the last year, with home price appreciatio i Alameda, Sa Mateo ad Sa Fracisco Couties closely behid. Movig forward, cotiued demographic ad employmet growth should fuel household formatio. As a result, buyer demad ad sales aivity should remai elevated i comig years. Specifically, the large umber of highicome households i the Bay Area should sustai demad for sigle family housig eve as home prices cotiue to rise. While home price appreciatio may slow from the strog pace of recet years, limited ivetory of homes for sale ad elevated housig demad should support strog sigle family housig market coditios ad cotiued home price appreciatio. Each office is idepedetly owed ad operated.

4 18 MARKET REPRT Q2 SALES BY CUNTY SINGLE FAMILY HMES Media Price Price per Sq. Foot Couty 17 Q2 18 Q2 % Chage 17 Q2 18 Q2 % Chage Alameda $89, $1,, 14% $547 $617 1% Cotra Costa $65, $69, 6% $92 $419 7% Mari $1,15, $1,412,5 7% $7 $752 % Napa $675,66 $75, 4% $447 $5 12% Sa Fracisco $1,44, $1,6, 1% $919 $1, 11% Sa Mateo $1,455, $1,65, 1% $92 $1,28 14% Sata Clara $1,175, $1,4, 19% $751 $94 % Sata Cruz $85,5 $92,5 6% $576 $65 5% Solao $41, $449, 1% $247 $276 12% Sooma $624,546 $69, 11% $422 $476 1% The ew tax law that wet ito effe is cocerig for some, as may thik that the December 17 chages to the mortgage iterest deduio (MID) ad the state ad local tax (SALT) deduios may impa households by elimiatig some deduios ad limitig the ability to itemize deduios. May households may ot be drastically impaed, because the chages to the MID ad SALT deduios are largely offset by substatial beefits of lower effeive tax rates ad limitatios o the alterative miimum tax (AMT) that previously impaed may Bay Area residets. Upper icome households are more likely to be impaed by these chages. However, these chages should cause a expeed miimal impa o icomes overall, ad are ulikely to drastically ifluece housig decisios ad demad amogst higher-icome households. As a result, these chages should ot substatially affe the Bay Area housig market. Aother et positive of the ew tax laws are the decrease i corporate icome tax rates, exemptio of % of pass-through etities icome from taxatio ad a reduio i the tax rate for madatory repatriatio of profits eared abroad. The et effe should result i a rise i capital, thereby boostig cosumer cofidece ad stregtheig housig demad. Additioally, because may high earer households are small busiess owers or receive a large share of icome through pass-through etities, these households i particular will beefit from these chages, givig way to stroger housig demad ad boostig the local housig market. Each office is idepedetly owed ad operated.

5 18 MARKET REPRT Q2 YEAR-VER-YEAR PRICE CHANGES Some of the largest Bay Area home price icreases were i the higher-priced couties of Sata Clara (19%), Sa Mateo (1%) ad Sa Fracisco (1%). However, the secod-highest home price icrease was i Alameda Couty at 14%. Couties with the smallest gais were Napa (4%), Sata Cruz (6%), Cotra Costa (7%) ad Mari (7%). I additio, home price gais cotiued at a strog pace betwee 1% ad 11% i Solao ad Sooma Couties. Media Sales Price: 17 Q2 vs. 18 Q2 Price per Square Foot: 17 Q2 vs. 18 Q2 $1.8m $1.5m Sa Mateo Sa Fracisco Mari Sata Clara $1,1 $825 Sa Mateo Sa Fracisco Sata Clara Mari $9k Alameda Sata Cruz Napa Cotra Costa Sooma $55 Alameda Sata Cruz Napa Sooma Cotra Costa $45k Solao $275 Solao $ 17 Q2 18 Q2 $ 17 Q2 18 Q2 About Rose Cosultig Group Rose Cosultig Group was fouded i 199 by Dr. Keeth T. Rose. Today, Rose ad Arthur Margo are the parters ad aive maagers of the firm cosistig of 18 research professioals. Educatioal backgrouds iclude PhDs, MBAs, ad graduate ad udergraduate degrees i real estate, plaig, fiace, public policy, ad ecoomics. I additio to servig as Chairma of RCG, Dr. Rose is Chairma of the Fisher Ceter for Real Estate ad Urba Ecoomics ad Professor Emeritus at the Haas School of Busiess at the Uiversity of Califoria, Berkeley. Dr. Rose has authored over 1 articles ad four books o real estate ad real estate fiace. Each office is idepedetly owed ad operated.

6 18 MARKET REPRT MARIN CUNTY Y E A R- V E R-Y E A R C M PA R I S N Media Price Price/SF # of Sales DM Q2 17 $1,15, $ Q2 18 $1,412,5 $ % Chage 7.4% 2.6% -.4% -7.1% Mari 5 Y E A R T R E N D : M E DI A N S A L E PR IC E 4 quarter rollig average 1 $1,5K $1,412,5 $1,125K $75K $75K Ap 15 Ju Ap 16 Ju Ap 17 Ju Ap Ju 14 Ap 1 Ju Ap $K 5 Y E A R T R E N D : # F HM E S S L D 4 quarter rollig average Ju Ap 1 Ap 14 Ju Ap 15 Ju Ap 16 Ju Ap 17 Ju Ap 18 8 Each office is idepedetly owed ad operated. Q2

7 MARIN CUNTY SALES 18 MARKET REPRT Q2 SALES BY CITY SINGLE FAMILY HMES Q2 18 City Average Media High Sale Price/SF # of Sales DM Belvedere $4,92,647 $,, $1,, $1, Bolias $1,118,5 $1,16, $1,77, $ Corte Madera $1,66,76 $1,47,5 $2,625, $ Dillo Beach $841,4 $9, $1,5, $ Fairfax $1,7,729 $945,5 $2,525, $62 22 Forest Kolls $85, $85, $85, $ Greebrae $1,75,898 $1,66, $2,85, $ Iveress $1,8,8 $1,65, $1,8, $81 5 Ketfield $2,999,164 $2,492,5 $6,795, $ Laguitas $976,5 $976,5 $1,17, $ Larkspur $1,99,27 $1,9, $,8, $1, Mill Valley $1,995,26 $1,722,5 $6,, $ Muir Beach $1,657,5 $1,657,5 $1,7, $ Nicasio $2,7,5 $2,7,5 $2,285, $ Novato $1,148,218 $1,1, $2,8, $ Pt. Reyes Statio $1,6, $1,6, $1,6, $ Ross $4,2,2 $2,6, $1,125, $1, Sa Aselmo $1,576,57 $1,75, $,, $ Sa Geroimo $1,722,5 $1,722,5 $2,, $ Sa Rafael $1,424,277 $1,245, $5,55, $ Sausalito $2,5, $1,9, $5,85, $1, Stiso Beach $2,4,429 $2,1, $,695, $1, Tiburo $,45,68 $2,977,5 $7,4, $ Tomales $65, $65, $65, $ Woodacre $1,98,688 $1,124,5 $1,45, $ Mari Couty $1,788,64 $1,412,5 $1,125, $ Each office is idepedetly owed ad operated.