The Link Between Middle-Income Housing Affordability and Affordable Housing

Transcription

1 REBIC 2017 FORUM UNCC Downtown Charlotte Campus Wendell Cox 1 February 2017 The Link Between Middle-Income Housing Affordability and Affordable Housing

2 The Link Between Middle-Income Housing Affordability and Affordable Housing World Class Charlotte Low Income Housing Middle-Income Housing Affordability Charlotte Middle-Income Affordability Policy Directions

3 Los Angeles

4 Higher Standard of Living & Less Poverty CONCERN: THREAT TO MIDDLE-CLASS BRISBANE G20 COMMUNIQUE: 2014 Brisbane

5 World Class Charlotte

6 Charlotte Calgary

7 3,000,000 2,500,000 Population: CHARLOTTE, DENVER & PORTLAND Portland Denver Charlotte Median Multiple 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , Derived from Census Bureau.

8 Major MSA s Domestic Migration : TOP 10 Raleigh, NC Austin, TX Las Vegas, NV Charlotte, NC-SC Phoenix, AZ Orlando, FL San Antonio, TX Riverside-San Bernardino, CA Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL Nashville, TN Derived from Census Bureau. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% % of 2000 Population

9 World Class Charlotte: Housing Affordability 2015: MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE/MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME Charlotte Calgary Perth Adelaide Toronto Melbourne Auckland Helsinki Zurich Vancouver Sydney Vienna Economist Top 10 Charlotte Price-to-Income Ratio Figure 9

10 World Class Charlotte: Traffic Congestion EXCESS TIME IN TRAFFIC: 2015 Charlotte Helsinki Calgary Perth Adelaide Melbourne Vienna Zurich Toronto Auckland Sydney Vancouver From Tom Tom Job creation, economic growth greater with faster access Economist Top 10 Carolinas US has shortest work trip travel times 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Excess Time in Traffic Figure 10

11 Low Income Housing

12 THE LONG HISTORY OF PUBLIC HOUSING PROGRAMS Important needs Never completely met objectives Early FHA Poster A myriad of obstacles

13 Millions of Households Housing Cost Burdened Households TOTAL: UNITED STATES Moderately Burdened (30%-50%) Severely Burdened (50%+) 17.6 Total 29.6% Total 39.7% Derived from Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies

14 20% Housing Cost Burdened Households PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL: UNITED STATES 18% 16% 16.5% 17.4% 16.5% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Total 29.6% 13.1% Moderately Burdened (30%-50%) Severely Burdened (50%+) Total 33.9% 0% Derived from Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies

15 Increase in Cost Burdened Households UNITED STATES: Overall : 8.2 Million Households Equal to Florida or New York Adjusted for Population Change: 5.0 Million Households Equal to Pennsylvania Derived from Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies

16 Housing Cost Burdened Households BEST & WORST: MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS: 2015 #53 Los Angeles, CA #52 Miami, FL #51 New York, NY-NJ-PA #50 San Diego, CA #49 Riverside-San Bernardino, CA #48 Sacramento, CA #47 San Francisco-Oakland, CA #46 Orlando, FL #45 Virginia Beach-Norfolk, VA-NC #44 Las Vegas, NV #17 Charlotte, NC-SC #10 Indianapolis. IN #9 Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN #8 St. Louis,, MO-IL #7 Raleigh, NC #6 Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI #5 Salt Lake City, UT #4 Louisville, KY-IN #3 Kansas City, MO-KS #2 Pittsburgh, PA #1 Grand Rapids, MI Best 10 Worst 10 Charlotte 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% % of Households Source: American Community Survey Figure 16

17 $1,000,000 Median Price & 80% AMI Price SELECTED MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS: 2015 $900,000 $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 Median House Price 80% AMI 267,000 households spending more than 30% of income on housing in Charlotte MSA $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 United States Atlanta Charlotte Denver Portland San Jose Derived from building-cost.net & RS Means Figure 17

18 Middle-Income Housing Affordability

19 Suburbanization in the United States ADVANTAGE has advantages in productivity that help to explain why the core western European countries never caught up to the U.S. productivity level and have been falling behind since Dr Robert J. Gordon Northwestern University

20 Broad-Based Home Ownership THE AMERICAN DREAM ( INTERNATIONAL DREAM ) Foundation of the middle-class Housing: largest expenditure item More to spend on other goods & services Neighborhood stability

21 Link between Market & Affordable Housing 80% OF MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE

22 Middle-Income Housing Affordability VALUATION REQUIREMENTS HOUSING MARKETS (Metropolitan Areas) (1) Comparison to Incomes (2) Comparison to history (3) Comparison to other areas

23 Measuring Housing Affordability THE DEMOGRAPHIA SURVEY MEDIAN MULTIPLE Median house price divided by Median household income Table 1 Housing Affordability Rating Categories Rating Median Multiple Severely Unaffordable 5.1 & Over Seriously Unaffordable 4.1 to 5.0 Moderately Unaffordable 3.1 to 4.0 Affordable 3.0 & Under 9 Nations 92 Major Markets 406 Total Markets

24 $14,000 Entry Level Housing Affordability: 1960 LEVITTOWN $12,000 $11,990 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $5,620 $4,000 $2,000 $0 Median Family Income Levittown House Derived from Census Bureau, Levittown ad

25 House Price to Income Ratios FROM 1987 Adapted from Reserve Bank of Australia, Courtesy Frontier Centre for Public Policy

26 Housing Affordability SELECTED MAJOR MARKETS: 2016 Hong Kong Sydney Vancouver Auckland San Jose Melbourne Honolulu Los Angeles San Francisco Bournemouth & Dorset Charlotte Kansas City Indianapolis Grand Rapids Detroit Saint Louis Oklahoma City Pittsburgh Cleveland Cincinnati Buffalo Rochester Affordable Markets Severely Unaffordable Markets Moderately Unaffordable Markets Median Multiple: 2016: 3 rd Quarter Source: 13 th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey

27 Urban Containment Policy & Land Prices URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY (& RELATED STRATEGIES) 5 The killer app of urban planning Price of Land 3 1 City Center Distance from City Center Exurbs Adapted from Lincoln Institute of Land Use Policy Figure 27

28 Impact of Urban Growth Boundary DESTROYS COMPETITIVE MARKET FOR LAND United Kingdom differences up to 400 times Portland 2010

29 Illustration: OPEC Restrictions on Supply EMBARGO & IRAN SUPPLY LIMITATIONS

30 Land Rationing is the Issue DESTROYS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY... the affordability of housing is overwhelmingly a function of just one thing, the extent to which governments place artificial restrictions on the supply of residential land. Donald Brash, Governor, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Introduction to 4 th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey

31 Severely Unaffordable Markets: 2016 ALL HAVE URBAN CONTAINMENT POLICY OR VARIATIONS Hong Kong Sydney, NSW Vancouver, BC Auckland San Jose, CA Melbourne, VIC Honolulu, HI Los Angeles, CA San Francisco, CA Bournemouth & Dorset San Diego, CA London (Greater London Toronto, ON Plymouth & Devon London Exurbs (E & SE Adelaide, SA Bristol-Bath Brisbane, QLD Perth, WA Miami, FL New York, NY-NJ-PA Riverside-San Bernardino, Seattle, WA Portland, OR-WA Denver, CO Boston, MA-NH Warrington & Cheshire Sacramento, CA Liverpool & Merseyside Extreme Large Lot Zoning Urban Containment Policy Median Multiple 13 th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey

32 Median Multiple Middle-Income Housing Affordability CALIFORNIA & THE UNITED STATES: Less Restrictive Markets More Restrictive Markets: Outside California California (All More Restricted Markets) Derived from Census Bureau, Harvard University and Demographia.

33 Highest Housing Adjusted Poverty Rates STATES: 2015 UNITED STATES California Florida New York Louisiana Arizona New Mexico Nevada Mississippi Hawaii Georgia 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Housing Cost Adjusted Poverty Rate Census Bureau data Figure 33

34 Net Domestic Migration by Affordability US MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS: ,000,000 3,172,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 Population Change 1,000, ,000,000-2,000,000-3,000,000-4,000,000-5,000,000-6,000,000 Median Multiple 3.5 or Less Median Multiple > 3.5 Harvard study: Affordability driving migration -4,781,000 Derived from Census Bureau data & City Sector Model 2015 Revision

35 CALIFORNIA: NEED TO LIBERALIZE REGULATIONS Far from helping, they are making it particularly difficult for Latino and African American households to own a home

36

37 Charlotte Middle-Income Affordability

38 6 5 Middle-Income Housing Affordability CHARLOTTE, DENVER & PORTLAND: Portland Denver Charlotte Median Multiple Charlotte Median Multiple: 3.9 Moderately Unaffordable Derived from Census Bureau, Harvard University and Demographia. Figure 38

39 Median Multiple: Charlotte v San Jose Charlotte San Jose Derived from 2015 ACS, 1950 Census & 1970 Census Figure 39

40 Construction Cost & Median House Price BASIC 2,000 SQUARE FOOT HOUSE: 2015 $1,000,000 $965,000 $900,000 $800,000 Construction Cost Median House Price $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $161,500 $203,100 $353,000 $188,500 $193,700 $319,300 $235,200 $100,000 $0 Charlotte Denver Portland San Jose Derived from building-cost.net & RS Means Figure 40

41 Policy Directions

42 Each $1,000 House Price Increase REDUCTION IN QUALIFIED HOUSEHOLDS CHARLOTTE MSA 1,200 ADDS TO LOW-INCOME HOUSING NEED

43 Housing Cost Burdened Households POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVEMENT CHARLOTTE MSA 2015 Actual At Median Multiple=3.0 Burdened 30.5% Burdened 23.7% Not Burdened 69.5% Not Burdened 76.3% 60,000 fewer households #Owned only# Estimated from 2015 ACS & NAHB Priced Out

44 Virtually Prohibited in Many Places CALIFORNIA, AUSTRALIA, NZ, VANCOUVER Often the intent of urban planning policy

45 ALL CITIES SPRAWL At varying densities Politics and topography can limit Not in New York, SF

46 "Suburbs rarely cease growing of their own accord. The only reliable way to stop them is to stop them forcefully. But the consequences of doing that are severe."

47 THE FUTURE OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING OPPORTUNITY TO IMPROVE Monitor Market Examine Regulations Economic Impact Analysis THREAT OF WORSENING Example of Canada Most Affluent Middle-Class Prices 3x incomes since 2000 Had been same Urban containment policy

48 Cheshire, Nathan & Overman URBAN ECONOMICS AND URBAN POLICY the ultimate objective of urban policy is to improve outcomes for people rather than places

49 Higher Standard of Living & Less Poverty CONCERN: THREAT TO MIDDLE-CLASS BRISBANE G20 COMMUNIQUE: 2014 Brisbane