2018 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & REAL ESTATE FORECAST KEY POINTS LACEY MERRICK CONWAY, CCIM

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1 218 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & REAL ESTATE FORECAST Presented by: LACEY MERRICK CONWAY, CCIM President/Principal Broker, Latter & Blum, Inc. KEY POINTS WHAT S DRIVING THE MARKET? REAL ESTATE TRENDLINE CURRENT MARKET PHASE MULTI-PARISH BREAKDOWN & KEY SUBMARKETS FORECAST

2 What factors are driving the market? Market in Transition Interest Rates Affordability Low Market Inventory Prices Still Increasing Demand for Labor Demand for Labor LEGACY INDUSTRIES: Oil & Gas Tourism Port

3 Demand for Labor DEVELOPING INDUSTRIES: Digital DXC, imerit Medical BioScience/BioMedical District Airport Online 219 Former Avondale Shipyards Michoud/Orion Formosa Housing Nationally

4 Greater New Orleans (GNO) Parishes Jefferson Orleans Plaquemines St. Bernard St. Charles St. James St. John the Baptist St. Tammany Tangipahoa Washington How much real estate was sold in GNO in 217? 15,74 Number of Sales $3,673,77 Volume of Sales Average Days on Market 14, numbers $3,498,51

5 Greater New Orleans Area Active Listings vs. Listings Jan Dec. 217 (Single Family) Converging Active 217 Greater New Orleans Area For Sale Pending Source: LATTER & BLUM Research Division This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by New Orleans Metropolitan Association of Realtors, St. Tammany Association of Realtors, Tangipahoa Board of Realtors, Baton Rouge Board of Realtors or their Multiple Listing Services. Neither the Boards, Associations, nor their MLS guarantees or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Boards, Associations or their MLS may not reflect all real estate activity for all years.

6 CURRENT MARKET PHASE: Are we in correction or in transition? NEW ORLEANS REAL ESTATE MARKET 216 (2 Years Ago) Phase I - PEAK Unit Sales Increasing Prices Increasing Inventory Decreasing Phase II CORRECTION Unit Sales Decreasing Prices Increasing Inventory Increasing Phase III TROUGH Unit Sales Decreasing Prices Decreasing Inventory Increasing Phase IV RECOVERY Unit Sales Increasing Prices Decreasing Inventory Decreasing

7 NEW ORLEANS REAL ESTATE MARKET 217 IN TRANSITION Phase I - PEAK Unit Sales Increasing Prices Increasing Inventory Decreasing Phase II CORRECTION Unit Sales Decreasing Prices Increasing Inventory Increasing Phase III TROUGH Unit Sales Decreasing Prices Decreasing Inventory Increasing Phase IV RECOVERY Unit Sales Increasing Prices Decreasing Inventory Decreasing

8 Buyers Market or Sellers Market? DEFINITION: Sellers Under 3 Months Inventory Buyers Over 6 Months Inventory Neutral In transition (3 to 6 Months Inventory) GNO Parish Marketplace Jefferson Orleans Plaquemines St. Bernard St. Charles St. James St. John the Baptist St. Tammany Tangipahoa Washington

9 Parish Breakdown (217) (216) Jefferson Orleans Plaquemines St. Bernard St. Charles St. James St. John the Baptist St. Tammany Tangipahoa Washington # OF SOLD LISTINGS 4,23 3, ,151 1, ,3222 3, ,944 1, (-2.8 %) (2.4 %) (9.9 %) (8.8 %) (-.2 %) (38.7 %) ( %) (1.4 %) (7.2 %) (9.4 %) VOLUME TOTAL $914,263 $1,162,991 $32,565 $63,676 $14,869 $5,615 $61,122 $1,37,959 $236,423 $26,512 $865,7366 $1,145,129 $27,635 $53,138 $99,161 $5,32 $55,697 $986,62 $215,664 $2,951 (5.6 %) (1.6 %) (17.8 %) (19.8 %) (5.8 %) (11.6 %) (9.7 %) (5.3 %) (9.6 %) (26.5 %) Key SubMarkets MARKETS IN TRANSITION: Garden/Uptown Lakefront/Gentilly Warehouse/Downtown Historic (Bywater, Marigny, New Marigny, Holy Cross)

10 Garden/Uptown Area 1,4 MARKETS IN TRANSITION Lakefront/Gentilly 1 9 1,2 8 1, Historic Active Single Family- Active Listings vs. Listings Active Source: LATTER & BLUM Research Division. This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by New Orleans Metropolitan Association of Realtors, St. Tammany Association of Realtors, Tangipahoa Board of Realtors, Baton Rouge Board of Realtors or their Multiple Listing Services. Neither the Boards, Associations, nor their MLS guarantees or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Boards, Associations or their MLS may not reflect all real estate activity for all years. Key SubMarkets NEUTRAL TO CONVERGENCE: Metairie Kenner Ormond Luling LaPlace New Orleans East West St. Tammany East St. Tammany

11 18 Metairie NEUTRAL TO CONVERGENCE MARKETS Kenner 4 Active Ormond Luling Active Single Family- Active Listings vs. Listings Active 35 LaPlace NEUTRAL TO CONVERGENCE MARKETS New Orleans East 7 Active West St. Tammany East St. Tammany / Single Family- Active Listings vs. Listings

12 FORECAST o o o o o Continued Healthy Market Average GNO sales price is increasing Steady demand, low inventory market Affordability is still a factor Many new projects, cause for excitement

13 Source: LATTER & BLUM Research Division. This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by New Orleans Metropolitan Association of Realtors, St. Tammany Association of Realtors, Tangipahoa Board of Realtors, Baton Rouge Board of Realtors or their Multiple Listing Services. Neither the Boards, Associations, nor their MLS guarantees or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Boards, Associations or their MLS may not reflect all real estate activity for all years.