Economic Trends in California Real Estate:

Transcription

1 CITE THIS READING MATERIAL AS: Realty Publications, Inc. Economic Trends in California Real Estate: Realty Almanac

2 Table of Contents i For weekly, monthly or quarterly updates of all charts and data sets contained in this book, visit Smartphone users may also scan the QR-code accompanying each chart for immediate updates. Table of Contents Table of market charts...vii California s Economic Recovery Timeline...xii Chapter 1.1 Chapter 1.2 Employment: a prerequisite to renting or owning Income for the necessities of life... 1 Jobs move real estate Jobs impact on real estate...5 Factor 1 Jobs Chapter 2.1 Chapter 2.2 Chapter 2.3 Chapter 2.4 Chapter 2.5 Chapter 2.6 Chapter 2.7 Long- and short-term rates Financing for ownership of real estate goes long years of summer followed by 30 years of winter Bond market cycles...13 The yield spread foretells recessions and recoveries To know how your market will evolve How to time the market To buy or sell in 2020? Buyer purchasing power determines home prices The driving force of real estate pricing...33 The influence of Federal Reserve policies The discount rate at work...41 Assorted market rates 91-day Treasury Bill Average Auction Rate Factor 2 Interest rates Chapter 3.1 Chapter 3.2 Chapter 3.3 A speculator by any other name The speculator: not just any investor Agreements for the flip of a property When you need to flip, do it right The great gamble: real estate speculators decoded Why the spectacle? Factor 3 Real estate speculation

3 ii Realty Almanac Factor 4 Home equity Chapter 4.1 Chapter 4.2 Chapter 4.3 Chapter 4.4 Homeownership as a savings plan Implicit rental income offsets owner s risk of loss Home sales volume and price peaks Looking into the future Negative equity and foreclosure A crisis squandered by an inactive government A balance sheet reality check Underwater property: the family s black-hole asset Factor 5 Renting: the alternative to homeownership Chapter 5.1 Chapter 5.2 Chapter 5.3 Rent: the requisite to property value Rent determines a property s fair market value Renting and owning across counties Are rentals the future of California real estate? Renting versus buying: the GRM as a measure A comparison of expenditures to rent or own an SFR Factor 6 Mortgages Chapter 6.1 Chapter 6.2 Chapter 6.3 The ARM vs. the FRM The real estate mortgage The danger of an ARM build-up Upward adjustment surprise! A lesson from the housing bubble Securitization and subprime lending Factor 7 Inflation & CPI Chapter 7.1 Back to basics: inflation 101 Fluctuation in the price level of goods and services Chapter 7.2 Beyond the basics: asset price inflation in the real estate market Asset inflation: where does real estate fit in? Factor 8 Consumer confidence Chapter 8.1 Chapter 8.2 Homebuyers feel ready and willing Inform them they are able to buy On the highway to a real estate recovery Auto sales predict home sales...147

4 Table of Contents iii Chapter 9.1 Chapter 9.2 The 20% solution: personal savings and homeownership Mortgages: QRM versus QM Income inequality harms California s housing market California s household demographics Factor 9 Savings Chapter 10.1 Chapter 10.2 Single family residential (SFR) and multi-family construction A gradual, steady, rising trend Blueprints for future construction The need for government action Factor 10 Construction Chapter 11.1 California s vacant residential properties More housing than people, but diminishing Factor 11 Inventory Chapter 12.1 Chapter 12.2 Chapter 12.3 Chapter 12.4 Chapter 12.5 California tiered home pricing Price tier fluctuations A realty black hole Belief in ever-rising prices brings implosion Appraisals solely to qualify property as security Justifying the buyer s price is another matter The mean price trendline: the home price anchor The intersection of price illusion and reality Home price bumps congressionally fed A distorted demand with each new subsidy Factor 12 Pricing Chapter 13.1 Chapter 13.2 Chapter 13.3 Chapter 13.4 S&P 500 as a complement to real estate As a percent of earnings REIT investments as stocks Playing the real estate game from the sidelines Investing: stocks or real estate? Stocks: the more volatile choice Oil s influence on mortgage rates The effect of cheap oil Factor 13 Stock market

5 iv Realty Almanac Factor 14 Retirees Chapter 14.1 Chapter 14.2 Chapter 14.3 Boomers retire and California trembles Retirees will move real estate, lots of it Downsizing and relocating: the traditional retiree pastime Where will retiring Boomers go? Boomers bust open doors to the real estate investment era Risk-averse retirees change the investment playing field Factor 15 First-time homebuyers Chapter 15.1 Chapter 15.2 Chapter 15.3 Chapter 15.4 Household formations and trends in sales volume California new housing and population aged The nomadic generation forges California s real estate market Trends with opportunities for everyone Homeownership declines among the young Restless, relocating with job opportunities Generation Y incomes and the implications for home prices Lower incomes for Gen Y Factor 16 Fiscal spending Chapter 16.1 The U.S. Treasury, the Federal Reserve and owners When the financial levies broke Factor 17 Monetary policy Chapter 17.1 The lender of last resort The policies and functions of the Federal Reserve Factor 18 Politics Factor 19 Wealth from other nations Chapter 18.1 Chapter 18.2 Chapter 19.1 Rentiers and debtors: why can t they get along? The world of passive entitlement Wall Street steps into the mortgage market America s common enemy The global economy s effect on local real estate Global forces make themselves at home...311

6 Table of Contents v Chapter 20.1 Chapter 20.2 A nation s housing policy as tax loopholes Tax credit subsidies in action The home mortgage tax deduction: pros and cons Housing subsidies encourage indebtedness and turnover, not homeownership Factor 20 Taxation Chapter 21.1 Chapter 21.2 Chapter 21.3 Chapter 21.4 Golden State population trends Population change: the last thirty years Migration and California s housing market Bye-bye, California. Hello, Texas! Immigration s impact on the housing market The old role of immigrants in the new real estate paradigm Population growth exceeds new housing; rents rapidly rise More households than housing Factor 21 Population growth Chapter 22.1 Chapter 22.2 The distribution of California s human resources Your gain from local demographic information Age and education in the Golden State Age and propensity to own Factor 22 Demographic change Chapter 23.1 Chapter 24.1 Chapter 24.2 Preventing the next real estate bubble Harness market momentum excitement Energy efficiency 101: for California real estate agents Energy efficiency: what s the big deal? A property s energy demands: an evolving factor in marketing The greener future is at hand Factor 23 Regulation Factor 24 Energy consumption

7 vi Realty Almanac Factor 25 Regional housing indicators Chapter 25.1 Chapter 25.2 Chapter 25.3 Chapter 25.4 Chapter 25.5 Chapter 25.6 Chapter 25.7 Los Angeles County housing indicators Home sales volume remains low Orange County housing indicators Home sales volume low and rising Riverside County housing indicators Home sales volume remains down Sacramento County housing indicators Has homeownership reached its bottom? San Diego County housing indicators Homes sales volume still low San Francisco County housing indicators Home sales volume slips Santa Clara County housing indicators Homes sales volume slows Glossary Defines key terms and supplies page references for further study Updates & benefits Future updates and recent developments are available online for further research at realtypublications.com/charts. For a full-size, fillable copy of any form cited in this book, plus our entire library of 400+ free legal forms, go to realtypublications.com/forms.

8 Table of Contents vii Chart Title Page 3-month Treasury bill rate month Treasury bill rate year Treasury note rate: avg. market yield year Treasury note rate month Treasury average and 15-year fixed FRM rates vs. 10-year Treasury note average day Treasury bill rate Annual personal savings nationwide (1959-present) Applicable federal rates ARMs as a percentage of all CA home loans vs. 30-year FRM rate Average 15-year FRM rate for the western region Average 30-year FRM rate for the western region Average 30-year FRM rate and mortgage funds available Auto sales and home sales in California, annual CA dwellings by owners vs. tenants: 2006, 2015, CA monthly auto sales and home sales volume: 1-year moving average CA payroll employment by county California buyer purchasing power index and home prices California gross domestic product (GDP) and per capita income California household size and characteristics California mean price trendline California median income by household type California migration and immigration: domestic and international California monthly home sales volume California new housing and population aged California payroll employment California population aged and California population and growth rate California tri-city average tiered property price index: 1989-present California tri-city average tiered property price index: 2006-present California yearly home sales volume Consumer sentiment in California Cost of funds index (COFI) Discount rate Table of market charts

9 viii Realty Almanac Chart Title Page Federal funds rate versus 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) rate Home sales volume and pricing in California Homeowner vacancy rate and SFR construction starts in California Homeownership rate by age: western region Homeownership rate by California county: 2-year moving average Income inequality in California London Inter-Bank Offered Rate (LIBOR) Los Angeles County monthly construction starts Los Angeles County employment: construction and real estate Los Angeles County homeownership rate Los Angeles County monthly home sales volume Los Angeles County per capita income Los Angeles County payroll employment Los Angeles tiered property pricing: 1989-present , 394 Los Angeles tiered property pricing: 2006-present Los Angeles County turnover rate owners and renters Mortgage funds available to an average income household Northern California median age Northern California percent of population with a BA/BS Degree Northern California percent of population with a high school diploma Orange County monthly construction starts Orange County employment: construction and real estate Orange County monthly home sales volume Orange County homeownership rate Orange County per capita income Orange County payroll employment Orange County turnover rate: owners and renters Per capita income in Northern California Per capita income in Southern California Personal savings nationwide by quarter (2005-present) Population of Northern California s five largest counties Population of Southern California s five largest counties Prime rate Quarterly percent earnings and pricing: S&P Quarterly price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio: S&P

10 Table of Contents ix Chart Title Page Quarterly home price index vs. stock price index Rate of population growth in the U.S. and California REIT indexed values and returns Rental/homeowner vacancies, notices of default (NODs) in California Rental housing wage vs. minimum and average hourly wages Rental vacancy rate and multi-family construction starts in California Rental vacancy rate by county: 2-month moving average Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario metro area construction starts Riverside County employment: construction and real estate Riverside County monthly home sales volume Riverside County per capita income Riverside County homeownership rate Riverside County payroll employment Riverside County turnover rate: owners and renters Sacramento County monthly construction starts Sacramento County employment: construction and real estate Sacramento County homeownership rate Sacramento County per capita income Sacramento County payroll employment Sacramento County turnover rate: owners and renters San Diego County monthly construction starts San Diego County employment: construction and real estate San Diego County home sales volume San Diego County homeownership rate San Diego County per capita income San Diego County payroll employment San Diego tiered property pricing: 1989-present , 423 San Diego tiered property pricing: 2006-present San Diego County turnover rate: owners and renters San Francisco County monthly construction starts San Francisco County employment: construction and real estate San Francisco County home sales volume San Francisco County homeownership rate San Francisco County per capita income San Francisco County payroll employment

11 x Realty Almanac Chart Title Page San Francisco tiered property pricing: 1989-present , 432 San Francisco tiered property pricing: 2006-present San Francisco County turnover rate: owners and renters Santa Clara County monthly construction starts Santa Clara County employment: construction and real estate Santa Clara County home sales volume Santa Clara County homeownership rate Santa Clara County per capita income Santa Clara County payroll employment Santa Clara County turnover rate: owners and renters SFR and multi-family housing starts Southern California median age Southern California percent of population with a BA/BS Degree Southern California percent of population with a high school diploma Treasury securities average yield Yield spread Yield spread and home sales volume Future updates and recent developments are available online for further research at realtypublications.com/charts.

12 CITE THIS READING MATERIAL AS: Realty Publications, Inc. Office Management and Supervision First Edition

13 Table of Contents i Related Forms...ii Glossary Table of Contents Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Chapter 5 Chapter 6 Brokerage activities: agent of the agent Introduction to agency... 1 Creation of office policies, rules and systems for review Setting standards for recruiting agents Review of agent activities, records, funds and reports Tracking transactions handled by a broker s agents...31 Federal and state prohibited discriminatory practices Property rights cannot be based on status...49 Marketing and advertising Choose your brand For FREE, customizable marketing materials, go to realtypublications.com/farm Appointment and supervision of an office manager The supervisory role of an office manager Office Management and Supervision For a full-size, fillable copy of this or any other form in this book that may be legally used in your professional practice, go to realtypublications.com/forms. Table of Forms No. Form Name Page 115 Finder s Fee Agreement Agent Income Data Sheet Assistant Employment Agreement Office Manager Employment Agreement Listing Information Report Full Forms 505 Broker-Agent Employee Agreement Independent Contractor Employment Agreement File Activity Sheet Transaction Coordination Sheet (Seller s Agent) Partial Forms

14 ii Office Management and Supervision, First Edition Related Office Management Forms No. Form Name 119 Compensation Disclosure In A Real Estate Transaction Disclosure Of Mortgage Loan Broker Fees 121 Release And Cancellation Of Employment Agreement 201 Stack Sheet Loan Origination and Transmittal 205 Affiliated Business Arrangement Disclosure Statement 233 Loan Transmittal Summary Preliminary Submission to Lender 500 Agent Interview Sheet 501 Agent Identification And Contact Information 502 Agent Itinerary And Schedule 508 Office Agents Licensing Record 511 Designated Officer Employment Agreement 519 Affiliated Business Arrangement Disclosure Statement Transaction Coordination Sheet (Buyer s Agent) Prospective Purchase Through COE Transmittal And Request Memo Transaction Coordination Expired Listing Report Or by Cancellation 523 Property Sold Report Administrative and Fee Information Transmittal And Stack Sheet On Sale For Administrative File Review 524 Disbursement Of Brokerage Fees Broker Instructions to Escrow 525 Confirmation Memorandum 526 Settlement Agreement With Release and Waiver 527 Conflict Of Interest Kinship, Position or Undue Influence 535 Interest-Bearing Trust Account Agreement

15 CITE THIS READING MATERIAL AS: first tuesday Agency, Fair Housing, Trust Funds, Ethics and Risk Management Sixth Edition

16 Table of Contents i Table of Forms...iv Introduction... v Glossary Table of Contents Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Chapter 5 Chapter 6 Agency: authority to represent others Introduction to agency... 1 The agency law disclosure Legislated order...5 Agency confirmation provision Mandated for purchase agreements...15 Dual agency and subagency Agency and fee sharing concepts...21 A broker s use of supervisors Delegated supervision, not agency...27 Opinions with erroneous conclusions When an opinion becomes a guarantee Agency Chapter 1 The Federal Fair Housing Act Introduction to fair housing...47 Fair Housing Chapter 2 The Civil Rights Acts of 1866 and 1870 Property rights cannot be based on race Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Chapter 5 Chapter 6 Chapter 7 Chapter 8 Americans with Disabilities Act Providing access to nonresidential real estate California s protected civil rights The Unruh Civil Rights Act...65 Fair housing for disabled persons California-style access for disabled tenants...71 California Fair Employment and Housing Act Discriminatory practices, exemptions and remedies CalBRE regulation of discrimination Guidelines for broker conduct...79 Equal Credit Opportunity Act Federal fair lending rules...83 Chapter 9 The Housing Financial Discrimination Act of 1977 California s fair lending laws... 89

17 ii Agency, Fair Housing, Trust Funds, Ethics and Risk Management, Sixth Edition Chapter 10 Chapter 11 Chapter 12 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act Lenders release home loan data...95 HUD advertising guidelines for sales and rentals Avoiding discrimination in advertising...99 Prior occupant s use, affliction and death When and when not to disclose Trust Funds Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Chapter 5 Chapter 6 Trust funds overview Introduction to trust funds Advance fees are trust funds Deposits retain trust status until disbursed as instructed. 115 Advance costs are trust funds Funds handed to the broker for marketing costs Trust account management The withdrawl of trust funds Trust fund accounting Trust account bookkeeping Penalties for misuse of trust funds Commingling, conversion and restitution Ethics Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Chapter 5 Conflict of interest Professional relationships compromised Counteroffers to promote clarity Defacing a previously signed document Property related disclosures Sold as-is is a prohibited disclaimer property is sold as disclosed The borrower and loan broker relationship The accurate representation of mortgage terms Kickbacks, price fixing and MLS access Duplicate charges for services...179

18 Table of Contents iii Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Chapter 5 Chapter 6 Management of exposure to liability The reduction of uncertainties for harm An agent s impact on their broker The agent of the agent Due diligence obligations of the seller s and buyer s broker Due diligence by the seller s agent Disclosure of known or suspected adverse facts Selecting and hiring a home inspector A seller s residence in foreclosure The equity purchase investor scheme Cancellation, release and waiver Known and unknown claims Risk Management Defines key terms and supplies page references for further study Glossary Future errata, supplemental material, updates and recent developments specific to Agency, Fair Housing, Trust Funds, Ethics and Risk Management are available online for further research within the Online Reading section of your Student Homepage at Updates

19 iv Agency, Fair Housing, Trust Funds, Ethics and Risk Management, Sixth Edition Table of Forms Full-size, fillable copies of all 350+ first tuesday forms can be found in the Forms-on-CD accompanying this course. Full Forms No. Form Name Page 104 Loan Broker Listing Agreement Listing Package Cost Sheet Equity Purchase Agreement Counteroffer Cancellation of Agreement Agency Law Disclosure Office Manager Employment Agreement Interest-Bearing Trust Account Agreement Record of All Trust Funds Received