Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review and Forecast

Transcription

1 Old Dominion University Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review and Forecast 2011 Presented by: E.V. Williams Center for Real Estate and Economic Development Welcome! John R. Lombard, Ph.D. Director E.V. Williams Center for Real Estate and Economic Development Department Chair Department of Urban Studies and Public Administration College of Business and Public Administration Old Dominion University Thank you to the Sponsors of the 2011 Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review and Forecast Bank of America Merrill Lynch Cavalier Land, Inc. Hampton Roads Chapter of the Appraisal Institute Real Estate Information Network, Inc. CB Richard Ellis/Hampton Roads Rose & Womble Realty Harvey Lindsay Commercial Real Company, LLC City of Portsmouth Economic Estate Development S.L. Nusbaum Realty Co. Hourigan Construction City of Virginia Beach Economic Development Inlet Technology Sam Segar & Associates, Inc. Commercial Realtors Colonial Webb Contractors Cushman & Wakefield/THALHIMER Dominion Realty Advisors, Inc. ECS Mid-Atlantic, LLC First Potomac Realty Trust Grandbridge Real Estate Capital Hackworth Reprographics, Inc. Inside Business Jones Lang LaSalle Kaufman & Canoles, P.C. Liberty Property Trust MEB General Contractors Monarch Bank Commercial Real Estate Finance Old Dominion University Real Estate Foundation Turner Construction Company Turning Technologies Virginia Housing Development Authority W. M. Jordan Company Wells Fargo Wheeler Interests Williams Mullen John R. Broderick, President Gilbert R. Yochum, Ph.D., Interim Dean College of Business & Public Administration, Old Dominion University 1

2 Industry Professional Advisors to the Center (IPAC) Honorary Member Robert M. Stanton, CSM and CPM Stanton Partners, Inc. Jeff Ainslie Ainslie Group G. Robert Aston, Jr. TowneBank Ramon W. Breeden, Jr. The Breeden Company Sanford (Sandy) M. Cohen Divaris Real Estate, Inc. Craig Cope Liberty Property Trust Cecil V. Cutchins Olympia Development Corporation Robert L. Dewey Willcox & Savage, PC Thomas M. Dillon Fulton Bank N. Joseph Dreps BB&T Pamela J. Faber LeClair Ryan Joel T. Flax, CPA Goodman and Company David M. Gianascoli Gee s Group Real Estate Development John L. Gibson, III Ellis-Gibson Development Group Warren Harris City of Virginia Beach Economic Development Aubrey L. Layne, Jr. Great Atlantic Management, LLC Miles B. Leon S. L. Nusbaum Realty Company Michael W. McCabe Harvey Lindsay Commercial Real Estate Michael Newsome Tony Smith Clark Whitehill Enterprises, Inc. Robinson Development Group Harrison J. Perrine Deborah K. Stearns, Perrine Investments CPM, SIOR Harvey Lindsay Commercial Real Don Perry Estate Continental Development Richard Thurmond Victor L. Pickett William E. Wood & Associates Grandbridge Real Estate Capital, LLC Jon S. Wheeler Wheeler Interests Thomas E. Robinson Robinson Development Group Robert T. Williams Tri City Developers, LLC Jim V. Rose Rose & Womble Realty Co., LLC Rod Woolard City of Norfolk Economic Bradley R. Sanford, MAI Development Dominion Realty Advisors Steven Wright Burrell F. Saunders, AIA, IIDA, City of Chesapeake Economic NCARB Development H&A Architects & Engineers Reese Smith, Sr. Reese Smith & Associates J. Scott Adams, CCIM CB Richard Ellis Tom Atherton MEB General Contrators Stewart Buckle, II The Morgan Real Estate Group M. Albert Carmichael Harvey Lindsay Commercial Real Estate W. Page Cockrell Hurt & Proffitt David Collier First Atlantic Restoration Lawrence J. Colorito, Jr., MAI Axial Advisory Group, LLC Hahns L. Copeland DARVA Group LLC Ann K. Crenshaw Kaufman & Canoles, P.C. Jon R. Crunkleton, Ph.D. Old Dominion University Kim Curtis Tidewater Home Funding William G. Darden Hearndon Construction Co. CREED Council Laura B. de Graaf Bank of America Merrill Lynch Michael Divaris Divaris Real Estate, Inc. Helen Dragas The Dragas Companies Brian J. Dundon Dundon & Associates Sandra Ferebee GSH Residential Sales Bart Frye, Jr. Frye Properties, Inc. Brian E. Gordineer, A.A.S City of Hampton, Office of the Assessor Howard E. Gordon Williams Mullen Dennis W. Gruelle Appraisal Consultation Group Jonathan S. Guion, SIOR Jonathan Commercial Properties Russell G. Hanson, Jr. Hanson Capital, LLC Carl Hardee Lawson Realty Corporation John C. Harry John C. Harry, Inc. Dorcas T. Helfant-Browning DTH Properties, LLC Virginia P. Henderson, MAI Commercial First Appraisers, LLC Charles Hutchison Vanasse Hangen Brustlin, Inc. Michael A. Inman Inman & Strickler, P.L.C. Cherie James Cherie James, CPA Terry Johnson Abbitt Realty Mallory Kahler City of Portsmouth Economic Development E. Andrew Keeney Kaufman & Canoles, P.C. R. I. King, II Cushman & Wakefield/THALHIMER William E. King, SIOR Harvey Lindsay Commercial Real Estate April Koleszar Koleszar Properties, Inc. Barry M. Kornblau Summit Realty Group, Inc. Tyler Leinbach Trafalgar Realty, LLC John R. (Jack) Lewis, II ECS Mid-Atlantic, LLC Harvey Lindsay, Jr. Harvey Lindsay Commercial Real Estate Jeffrey R. Mack The CIM Group Mike Mausteller Harvey Lindsay Commercial Real Estate G. Cliff Moore VIRTEXCO Corporation Michael Nice George Nice and Sons, Inc. Thomas O Grady Clancy & Theys Construction James N. Owens, CCIM Harvey Lindsay Commercial Real Estate Robert L. Philips, Jr. Cushman & Wakefield/THALHIMER Hampton CREED Roads Council Office Market Executive Committee Sandra Prestridge City of Norfolk Economic Development Chris Read CB Richard Ellis/Hampton Roads F. Craig Read Read Commercial Properties John C. Richards, Jr. CB Richard Ellis/Melody & Co. Rennie Richardson Richardson Real Estate Corporation Maureen G. Rooks Jones Lang LaSalle J. Randy Royal Kimley-Horn and Associates Robert J. Ruhl City of Virginia Beach Economic Development Stephanie Sanker, SIOR, CCIM S.L. Nusbaum Realty Co. Robert M. Sherman III, CPM Harrison & Lear, Inc. Kenneth Sisk, P.E. Bowman Consulting Group Anthony W. Smith Robinson Development Group Robert M. Stanton Stanton Partners, Inc. Jeremy R. Starkey Monarch Bank Commercial Real Estate Finance/Monarch Capital, LLC Daniel R. Stegall Daniel Richard Stegall, A Professional Law Corporation Terrie L. Suit The Office of Commonwealth Preparedness Leo Sutton Historic Ventures, LLC Michael Sykes Bank of Hampton Roads Robert M. Thornton, CRE, CCIM, SIOR Cushman & Wakefield/THALHIMER William C. Throne, SIOR, CCIM, ALC Cushman & Wakefield/THALHIMER Jamie Tollenaere S.B. Ballard Construction Company Stewart Tyler, ASA Right of Way Acquisitions & Appraisals George D. Vick, III Harvey Lindsay Commercial Real Estate Edward W. Ware Norfolk Redevelopment and Housing H. Mac Weaver, II Wells Fargo Real Estate Group Edward M. Williams William E. Wood & Associates F. Blair Wimbush Norfolk Southern Corporation Peter E. Winters, Jr. Bank of Hampton Roads Chris Wood JD & W John P. Wright Waverton Associates Chair Director Program Chair Publications Chair Membership Chair Curriculum Co Chairs By Laws Chair Past Chair At Large Brad Sanford John Lombard Stephanie Sanker Brian Dundon Craig Cope Jon Crunkleton, Brad Sanford Andrew Keeney Tom Dillon Jonathan Guion Billy King Aubrey Layne Market Review Committee Editorial Committee Industrial Bill Throne and Stephanie Sanker Office Maureen Rooks Retail DavidMachupa Machupa, Kyllie Brinkley, and David Chapman Multi family Charles Dalton/Real Data Residential Blair Hardesty, Ron Wildermuth, and Van Rose Investment Scott Adams Kyllie Brinkley David Chapman Albert Duncan Brian Dundon Nancy Gossett Elizabeth Hancock Janice Hurley Joy Learn John Lombard Sandi Prestridge Maureen Rooks Brad Sanford Lane Shea Kristi Sutphin 2

3 Moderator 2011 Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review and Forecast Michael J. Seiler, Ph.D. Professor and Robert M. Stanton Chair of Real Estate and Economic Development has worked diligently and passionately on behalf of his students, the University, and the real estate community to help us be the best we can be. His commitment to his students has been his most consuming passion. Deborah K. Stearns, CPM, SIOR Senior Vice President Harvey Lindsay Commercial Real Estate Presentation To Dr. Jon Crunkleton Robert M. Stanton, CSM, CPM Stanton Partners, Inc. a brilliant, down to earth, honest, caring man and one of the best professors at Old Dominion University. Ashley Juliano, a former student there was no other mentor in my academic career that ever did more for me than Dr. Crunkleton. L. Joy Learn, Fulton Bank a former student Investment Market Review Investment Market Review Presented By: J. Scott Adams, CCIM President, Mid-South Region March 2, 2011 TOPICS TO COVER Positive Signs in the Economy and Property Markets Trends in Property Sales (UP!) Trends in Distressed Assets (STABLILIZED!) The Lending Market Today (IMPROVED!) Summary Observations Part of the CB Richard Ellis affiliate network CB Richard Ellis Page 16 Positive Signs - Economy and Property Markets SIGNS ARE POSITIVE IN THE NATIONAL ECONOMY Recession over and protracted expansion phase begun Painful reductions in employment begun to turn around Corporate America more profitable and productive, so the capacity to hire is increasingly evident Positive Signs - Economy and Property Markets SIGNS ARE POSITIVE FOR EACH OF THE MAJOR PROPERTY TYPES Especially positive for Office and Multi-Family Vacancy factors well below previous cyclical peaks Buoyed by job growth expectations and housing market Return of bank credit for small businesses where the majority of jobs are created CB Richard Ellis Page 17 CB Richard Ellis Page 18 3

4 Positive Signs - Economy and Property Markets Trends in Property Sales Nationally SIGNS ARE POSITIVE FOR EACH OF THE MAJOR PROPERTY TYPES Sales Transactions of $5 Million or greater BILLIONS Clear signs of stabilization for Retail and Industrial $140 $120 $121.4 Vacancy factors remain above previous cyclical peaks Buoyed by increased consumer spending and rising trade volumes $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $55.6 $ Real Capital Analytics CB Richard Ellis Page 19 CB Richard Ellis Page 20 Trends in Property Sales Hampton Roads Sales Transactions of $5 Million or greater 2010 Top Local Sales Transactions: Multi-Family Alta Great Bridge MILLIONS $160 $140 $139.5 $151.4 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $ CB Richard Ellis Market Research CB Richard Ellis Page 21 CB Richard Ellis Page Top Local Sales Transactions: Multi-Family Battlefield Woods Apartments 2010 Top Local Sales Transactions: Retail Prime Outlets Williamsburg CB Richard Ellis Page 23 CB Richard Ellis Page 24 4

5 2010 Top Local SalesTransactions: Retail Cape Henry Plaza 2010 Top Local Sales Transactions: Office Harbour View Medical Arts Building CB Richard Ellis Page 25 CB Richard Ellis Page Top Local Sales Transactions: Office Southport Centre 2010 Top Local Sales Transactions: Office Battlefield Corporate Center CB Richard Ellis Page 27 CB Richard Ellis Page 28 Trends in Distressed Assets Trends in Distressed Assets WHAT IS A DISTRESSED ASSET? VOLUME OF DISTRESSED ASSETS HAS STABLIZED $250 A loan default has occurred or is imminent $200 and/or $150 $100 The owner/sponsor of the asset is bankrupt or faces financial trouble $50 $0 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 Outstanding Worked Out CB Richard Ellis Page 29 CB Richard Ellis Page 30 5

6 The Lending Market Today GREAT SIGNS IN THE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE LENDING MARKET Lending volume in 4Q 2010 was the highest quarterly increase since mid-2007 Overall lending volume in 2010 was 36% increase over 2009 All types of lending sources show positive signs Banks Insurance Companies Conduit Lenders Summary Observations Industry has evolved from the phrase Survival of the Fittest to Most Success for the Fittest Property Types Physical Assets Markets Locations Real Estate Companies Service Providers CB Richard Ellis Page 31 CB Richard Ellis Page 32 Summary Observations While much of the first phase of investment volume recovery has been in the major markets, Hampton Roads will increasingly participate More space absorption More rental rate growth Higher investment sales volume Presented by: William C. Throne, CCIM, SIOR, ALC CB Richard Ellis Page 33 BOUNCING ON THE BOTTOM Vacancy incrementally better, but barely % % Rental rates starting to hold BOUNCING ON THE BOTTOM Industrial vacancies higher than national average CoStar 10.2% Cushman & Wakefield 10.8% Slow sales volume is good news 6

7 THE RISE OF THE BOTTOM FEEDER Distressed Properties are Selling Older, functionally challenged Larger floor plates Significant deferred maintenance THE RISE OF THE BOTTOM FEEDER 201 West Dexter Street, Chesapeake 457,501 square feet $6,000, $13.11 per square foot A RECEDING TIDE High cube distribution still suffering A RECEDING TIDE Other sectors experiencing shortages: City % of vacancy 5,000 to 15,000 square feet Suffolk 88% Cavalier 80% Isle of Wight 87% Norfolk Industrial Park 48% Copeland Lower Peninsula 64% Yard space requirements Specialty groups: crane and rail A RECEDING TIDE Rents declining in all sectors Anxious landlords Aggressive tenants Focused on national and regional statistics vs. knowledge of surrounding submarket MAJOR TRANSACTIONS We had a few Kinder Morgan purchased 41 acres 3900 Shannon Street, Chesapeake Terminaling operation on 41 acres Pier, crane, equipment $8.12 million 7

8 MAJOR TRANSACTIONS We had a few Kerma Medical purchased 102,000 square feet Pharmaceutical manufacturing plant Local relocation from Portsmouth $4.15 million MAJOR TRANSACTIONS We missed a few Becton Dickenson 600,000 1,000,000 square feet Proposed assembly and distribution building Selected North Carolina MAJOR TRANSACTIONS 2011 starting off right Nash Finch 601,000 square feet Wholesale food distribution facility $27.5 million MAJOR TRANSACTIONS 2011 starting off right Giant Cement 750 terminal pier 200 car rail served offload facility $11.6 million MAJOR TRANSACTIONS 2011 starting off right Virginia Renaissance/Jacoby Development 662,450 square feet of industrial space 101 acres Scheduled close in March 2011 LOOKING FORWARD The Fastenal Company is a supplier of fastener and industrial supplies to industry. With 2,300 stores around the world, and 15 locations in the Hampton Roads MSA, sales volume in 2010 exceeded 2009 by 10% locally. According to Tom Lankford, Regional Manager for the Fastenal Company: I have seen a modest up-tick in sales volumes across the board at my stores in Hampton Roads. We are nowhere near peak levels, but the trend line is certainly pointed in the right direction. 8

9 Hampton Roads Real Estate Office Market Review and Forecast LOOKING FORWARD Allied Concrete Products, located in Chesapeake, imports Witelite Pumice for distribution into the market, processes a raw material used in the production of insulation, as well as manufacture block for residential and commercial construction. Kirk Edens, President of Allied Concrete Products offers to following comments: Provided normal market influences, our volumes are up, marginally, year over year, and I expect 2011 to continue that trend. That being said, the instability of fuel prices and the increased input costs, will force an increase in market prices for all construction products; then we will see how real the recovery is. Keep in mind that during the last few years our numbers were at levels we have not experienced since the 1950 s demanding drastic changes in the structure of our business. Clearly we have a long way to go, but a slight improvement will make a huge difference. Deborah K. Stearns, CPM, SIOR Harvey Lindsay Commercial Real Estate IT S ABOUT JOBS ODU 2011 ECONOMIC FORECAST 2010 WAS A YEAR OF RECOVERY 37,100 CIVILIAN JOBS LOST IN RECESSION EMPLOYMENT TO INCREASE BY 9,600 JOBS IN EMPLOYMENT WILL APPROACH 2004 LEVELS 3.1% INCREASE IN GRP IN 2011 HAMPTON ROADS OFFICE MARKET Supply HAMPTON ROADS KEY MARKET INDICATORS Supply 28 M sf Total vacancy rate 14.6% Demand Pricing YTD net absorption Class A overall asking rent Class B overall asking rent 281,916 sf $21.37 psf $16.09 psf 9

10 LEASE TRANSACTIONS Tenant Address Submarket SF TPMG Discovery Park Dr Williamsburg 40,000 CONSTRUCTION DELIVERIES 2010 Building Developer sf Wells Fargo Center SL Nusbaum 299,887 ISHPI 6900 Harbour View Blvd Suffolk 31,500 Fort Norfolk Plaza Lauth Property Group 196,000 Strayer University 676 Independence Pkwy Chesapeake 25,622 Virginia Natural Gas Bldg Armada/Hoffler 32,000 Amerigroup 4433 Corporation Ln Virginia Beach 23, Production Rd Four C s, LLC 30,000 Towne Insurance 301 Bendix Rd Virginia Beach 19, Holland Rd T3 Holland Property LLC 27,844 OFFICE SALES 2010 Address Buyer sf $ psf 2600 Washington Ave 535 Independence Pkwy Sage Realty Partners First Potomac Realty 134,172 96, Crossways Blvd Monarch Bank 50, Harbour View Blvd HC REIT 49, Robin Hood Rd Robin Hood Road LLC 42, Fishing Point Dr Fishing Pt LLC 32,174 $15 $90 $88 $255 $41 $93 REGIONAL MARKET COMPARISON Hampton Roads Richmond Washington Inventory 45.5 M 58.7 M M Vacancy 12.7% 11.4% 12.9% Average Rate $17.84 $16.60 $33.72 Absorption 281, ,400 5,408,300 Deliveries 663, ,500 4,371,000 U/C 95, ,000 3,409, Employment (14.6%) (11.5%) (9.1%) TRENDS/OPPORTUNITIES EDUCATION PORT HEALTH CARE SHIPBUILDING GOVERNMENT AFRICOM It s About Jobs SUMMARY Hampton Roads Ahead of National Averages Lease Activity Is Strong Sale Transactions Are Few Construction Starts are Nominal 2011 = Year of Stabilization 10

11 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Regional Studies Institute, Old Dominion University Maureen Rooks/Nicolas Politis, Jones Lang LaSalle Real time Data Collection & Review Featuring Turning Technologies CoStar Group Becky Vega, Harvey Lindsay Commercial Real Estate Michael J. Seiler, Ph.D. WEATHERING THE STORM Presented by: David Machupa OVERVIEW COMING TO MARKET Southside Peninsula Total NUMBER OF PROPERTIES GLA IN SF 34,019,555 18,548,407 52,567,962 VACANT SF 2,523,754 2,175,793 4,699,547 % VACANT 7.4% 11.73% 8.94% AVERAGE RENTAL RATE $16.16 PSF $15.65 PSF $16.00 PSF OCCUPIED IN SF 31,495,801 16,372,614 47,868,415 ABSORPTION IN SF 675, ,361 1,279,396 11

12 NEW DEVELOPMENT REDEVELOPMENT NEW USE WATCH LIST CHESAPEAKE SQUARE SHOPS INVESTMENT SALE 12

13 THE CALM AFTER THE STORM Multi-Family Michael Newsome Partner Clark Whitehill Enterprises, Inc. Multi-Family Submarkets Southside Chesapeake Norfolk Portsmouth Suffolk Virginia Beach Peninsula Hampton Newport News Williamsburg York County 13

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15 Influential Market Forces and Trends Moderate job growth of 1.3% Unemployment rate reduction from 7.4% to 7% Taxable sales increase of 2.5% General cargo tonnage increase of 3.2% National Trends Lending environment Department of Defense spending/distribution SF Home foreclosures Auto/Home furnishings sales trends Pent-up demand Household debt down to 12% of DI Savings rate up at 5% of DI Strict mortgage standards and elevated DP Challenges Over The Horizon Future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Mortgage Interest Deduction Aging rental unit stock Others 15

16 RESIDENTIAL MARKET UPDATE 2011 Van Rose, MIRM President, Rose and Womble New Homes 15 Year Closing New Construction & Resale History Hampton Roads Average Closing Price Hampton Roads Average Price per Square Foot New Construction Product Mix 2010 Closings 16

17 Average Market Time Existing Home Hampton Roads Residential Inventory 2007 to 2011 Analysis by: Existing Home Inventory Single Family Detached: 8,635 units 10.4 month supply Single Family Attached: 2,317 units 11.9 month supply New Construction Inventory Single Family Detached: 688 units 5.8 month supply Single Family Attached: 261 units 4.6 month supply Multi-Story Condominium: 425 units 21.3 month supply Analysis by: Multi-Story Condominium: 420 units 36 month supply Analysis by: Southside Detached Inventory Peninsula Detached Inventory Analysis by: Analysis by: 17

18 The Year of the FORECLOSURE Hampton Roads Short Sale/Foreclosure Market Share Analysis by: Foreclosure Inventory by City/County Analysis by: The YearS of RECOVERY.. Existing Home Average Closing Price Versus Standard Appreciation Analysis by: 18

19 Interest Rates will Rise Freddie Mac From the IMF: Assessing Risks to Global Financial Stability Closings as % of Total Households Hampton Roads Employment to Permit Ratio Hampton Roads Net Migration Newport News Hampton Norfolk Isle of Wight Chesapeake Suffolk Data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau (Permits) #'s are preliminary Internal Revenue Service Analysis by: 19

20 2005: 309 builders Hampton Roads Top 5 Builders 2010: 187 builders 39% *Builders with more than 1 closing # 5 # # 3 #

21 # 1 Closing Bradley R. Sanford, MAI Chair, Executive Committee E. V. Williams Center for Real Estate and Economic Development 165 Interested??? CREED Membership Please send a note of interest to the Membership Chair, Craig Cope (ccope@libertyproperty.com) Thank you for attending! Please Join Us for the Reception Old Dominion University Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review and Forecast Presented by: E.V. Williams Center for Real Estate and Economic Development 21