Residential. Acknowledgements. Author Data Analysis/ Layout. Financial Support. Disclosure. Blair Hardesty Director Residential DataBank

Transcription

1 Residential Acknowledgements Author Data Analysis/ Layout Financial Support Disclosure Blair Hardesty Director Residential DataBank The E. V. Williams Center for Real Estate and Economic Development (CREED) functions and reports are funded by donations from individuals, organizations and the CREED Advisory Board. The data used for this report is deemed reliable; however, neither Old Dominion University, the E. V. Williams Center for Real Estate and Economic Development, nor sponsoring companies and/or individuals makes any representation or warranty as to its accuracy. 57

2 2009 RESIDENTIAL General Overview The Hampton Roads Residential Market statistics covered in this report analyze the new home building industry and the existing home sales activity for the year Included are the cities of Chesapeake, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, Poquoson, Portsmouth, Suffolk, Virginia Beach, and Williamsburg, and the counties of Gloucester, Isle of Wight, James City, Southampton, and York. The new construction data contained in this report was gathered from the actual deeds recorded and from the building permits issued by each city or county. The sales data and existing home closings data was gathered from the Real Estate Information Network. THE YEAR IN REVIEW 2008 was a year of challenges for the Hampton Roads real estate market. The average closing prices for new and existing homes experienced a decline in 2008, correcting the unsustainable run-up in prices that occurred in 2004 and The market continues its period of readjustment. The number of new, residential building permits issued in 2008 decreased 32.8% to 3,380 permits as the focus of builders turned to selling current inventory instead of to-be-built homes. This is the fewest amount of new residential permits issued in one year since Residential DataBank began tracking data in There were 496 permits issued in the fourth quarter, a decrease of 42% from the fourth quarter of The number of new, residential building permits issued in 2008 decreased 32.8% to 3,380 permits as the focus of builders turned to selling current inventory instead of to-be-built homes. New construction closings were the fewest number recorded since There were 3,311 total closings for new homes in Hampton Roads, a decline of 19.9% from The largest downturn occurred in the fourth quarter, with closings down 29.3% year over the previous year s final quarter. By the end of 2008, the existing home market ended with a 24.9% reduction in closings as compared to A total of 13,957 existing homes closed in 2008, which was 4,631 less than There were 2,676 existing home closings reported during the fourth quarter, a decline of 24.5% year over year Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review 58

3 NEW CONSTRUCTION For 2008, the average price of a new construction, single-family, detached home in Hampton Roads was $400,494, down 7.1% from Williamsburg had the highest average closing price, but as this number is calculated on only six closings it may not be a true indicator of average price. Virginia Beach had the largest number of closings with an average price of $492,281. All mu- Table I New Construction Permit and Closing Activity (2007 VERSUS 2008) ALL PRODUCT TYPES / / / - AREA PERMITS PERMITS % DIFF. SALES SALES % DIFF. CLOSINGS CLOSINGS % DIFF. Chesapeake % % % Franklin/Southampton % % % Gloucester % % % Hampton % % % Isle of Wight % % % James City County % % % Newport News % % % Norfolk % % % Portsmouth % % % Suffolk % % % Virginia Beach % % 1, % Williamsburg % % % York County % % % TOTALS 5,033 3, % 3,395 2, % 4,136 3, % * Sales information provided by the the Real Estate Information Network. A sale is a ratified contract which may or may not result in a closing. 59

4 2009 RESIDENTIAL Table II Hampton Roads New Construction Average Prices SINGLE FAMILY TOWNHOME/ ALL PRODUCT DETACHED MULTI STORY MULTI PLEX DUPLEX TYPES 1st QTR 2007 $443,710 $345,570 $236,641 $290,726 $380,012 2nd QTR 2007 $428,376 $421,909 $250,834 $329,390 $384,148 3rd QTR 2007 $437,216 $440,076 $242,439 $294,506 $383,806 4th QTR 2007 $414,798 $633,077 $253,820 $305,192 $403,442 1st QTR 2008 $405,174 $427,285 $229,975 $293,199 $368,586 2nd QTR 2008 $408,052 $396,867 $256,438 $289,969 $368,055 3rd QTR 2008 $412,122 $413,083 $228,618 $296,820 $367,013 4th QTR 2008 $371,725 $419,064 $241,279 $290,148 $339,725 nicipalities had declines in average closing value, except for James City County, York County and Williamsburg with increases of 1.1%, 7.5% and 52.5%, respectively. Each of these areas has several high end, custom home communities; just one or two high end closings are capable of elevating the average closing price. The largest percent decline in average price was in Gloucester County where the average price for a new, single-family, detached home dropped 16.2% to $269,941. This drop in average price can be attributed to Centex Homes significantly lowering prices in both Courthouse Square and Courthouse Spring, where the average price of 87 closings was $251,425. The average closing price for a multi-story condominium unit during 2008 was $411,907, down 16.9% from Multi-story buildings are defined as flat over flat buildings with 3 or more stories and, with the exception of Southmoor at Ridgely Manor, are elevator served. Currently, only a few cities/counties in Hampton Roads have new construction, multi-story buildings: Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Newport News and James City County. All experienced increases in average closing price, except for Virginia Beach where the average price dropped 42.8% from 2007 to $445,813. Southmoor Village at Ridgely Manor, the #1 new construction community in Hampton Roads for 2008, based on permits and closings. Built by Dragas Homes. The decline in Virginia Beach s average closing price is due to the introduction of Southmoor at Ridgely Manor in Virginia Beach by Dragas Homes. Southmoor was the #1 new construction community in Hampton Roads for Closings began in March and, through December, there were 86 closings recorded. These 2 bedroom, 2 bath, 1,340 square foot units had an average closing price of $183,845. This number of closings was substantial enough to offset numerous $1 million+ closings in several multi-story buildings in Virginia Beach Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review 60

5 The average closing price of a multiplex condominium unit was $238,550, down 3.2% from Representative examples of multiplex condominium units are the classic Dragas fourplex product and the Franciscus ten-plex product. Chesapeake experienced the largest drop in average closing price, down 16.1% to $251,412. Again, the drop in average closing price can be attributed to the introduction of a new, less expensive community and not necessarily a decline in average value. Brighton Park at Greenbrier is one of the latest multiplex communities in Hampton Roads. When complete the Dragas community will have 240 multiplex units in two different, fourplex product lines. In 2008, Brighton Park accounted for more than half of all multiplex closings in Chesapeake and the average closing price was $200,434. Table III Hampton Roads Existing Home Average Prices ALL PRODUCT DETACHED ATTACHED TYPES 1st QTR 2007 $271,755 $197,586 $252,009 2nd QTR 2007 $291,214 $204,157 $269,177 3rd QTR 2007 $292,936 $198,222 $267,902 4th QTR 2007 $272,177 $195,443 $251,913 1st QTR 2008 $260,685 $192,773 $243,326 2nd QTR 2008 $278,771 $203,084 $260,962 3rd QTR 2008 $266,396 $204,591 $252,406 4th QTR 2008 $255,468 $193,212 $241,309 Graph I 2008 Single Family Detached Average Closing Values New Construction Versus Existing $700,000 $600,000 New Construction Existing Homes Variance $658,971 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 Chesapeake Gloucester Hampton Isle of Wight James City County $395,686 Newport News $289,887 $105,799 Norfolk $269,941 $231,407 Portsmouth $38,534 Southampton County $319,448 Suffolk $195,119 $124,329 Virginia Beach $403,722 $ Williamsburg $289,475 York County $114,247 $458,942 $377,392 $81,550 $257,726 $211,010 $46,716 $343,371 $213,163 $130,208 $249,085 $174,252 $74,833 $252,858 $177,770 $75,088 $409,645 $258,427 $151,218 $492,281 $336,320 $155,961 $371,694 $287,277 $484,734 $359,203 $125,531 61

6 2009 RESIDENTIAL In contrast, James City County experienced a 26.9% increase in average closing price to $285,691. This is due to closings in the new, larger section of Braemar Creek by Franciscus Homes and the new Villa Development community, Villas at Five Forks. Graph II New Construction Closings Product Mix 2008 The average closing price for townhomes and duplexes in Hampton Roads dropped 4.1% from 2007 to $292,522. All areas experienced declines in average closing price, except for Virginia Beach and James City County with increases of 1.3% and 8.0% respectively. The largest decline was in Norfolk where the average price dropped 27.5% from 2007 to $326,910. A part of the decline in Norfolk is due to a fairly large price reduction on the townhomes in The Landings at Bolling Square by Collins Enterprises. Overall, the average price for a new construction home in Hampton Roads was $361,720 for 2008, down 6.7% from As seen in Table II, the overall average price continued to drop throughout the year and the fourth quarter average was down 15.8% from the previous fourth quarter. 56% Single Family Detached 22% Townhome/ Duplex 12% Multi-Story 10% Multi-Plex EXISTING HOMES The overall average closing price for an existing home during 2008 in Hampton Roads was $251,115, down 4% from James City County had the highest average closing price for an existing home with $356,761, on par with the average of Gloucester County had the highest decline in average price, down 11.7% to $230,442. On average, existing homes in Hampton Roads sold for 86.1% of the original listing price. The fourth quarter average for Hampton Roads was $241,309, down 4.2%, from the fourth quarter of Throughout most of 2008, the average closing price of existing homes continued to decline and, as the market continues to correct, the decline is likely to continue. For 2008, the average price for an existing detached home in Hampton Roads was $267,123, a decline of 5.8% from James City County had the highest average closing price reported during the year at $377,392, although this is a loss of 4% from The largest decline in average price was in Gloucester County with a decline of 12% down to $231,407. Existing detached homes in Hampton Roads on average sold for 84.6% of the original listing price. The average price for the fourth quarter was at $255,468, down 6.1% year over year. Existing attached homes in Hampton Roads had an average closing price of $199,335 during This is a decline of only $30 from Most areas had slight declines in average closing value. York County had the highest decline with a loss of 5.4% down to $205,113 for James City County had the only notable increase in average closing price with a 14.3% increase to $245,355. On average, attached homes sold for 94% of the original listing price. The average price during the fourth quarter was $193,212, down 1.1% from year ago numbers Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review 62

7 INDIVIDUAL MARKET SEGMENTS Single-Family Detached is still the dominant type of housing in Hampton Roads. For 2008, more than 67% of all new residential building permits issued in Hampton Roads were for detached housing. There were 2,280 permits issued, down 36.4% from Chesapeake had the largest number of permits issued, with 413 (18%) issued for the year. All municipalities experienced large declines in the number of permits issued, most notably Portsmouth, James City County and York County. Portsmouth had the largest percent decline in permits issued, with a 51.1% decline. This is due in large part to the slowed sales pace at New Port by Chesapeake Homes. In 2008, detached housing accounted for 56% of the new construction closing market. There were 1,832 new construction closings recorded in This is a decrease of 26.5% from the previous year. The largest percent decline occurred in York County, down 52.5% to 115 closings recorded for the year. In 2008, detached housing accounted for 56% of the new construction closing market. There were 1,832 new construction closings recorded in This is a decrease of 26.5% from the previous year. Portsmouth, Gloucester County, and Williamsburg each experienced increases in the number of closings with 59.3%, 24.2% and 50% increases respectively. The increase in Williamsburg is based on a small number of closings (6). The increase in Portsmouth is due to the success at Kings Gate Crossing, a Pace Construction community located off of Airline Boulevard which accounted for 39.5% of all detached closings in Portsmouth. Homes there range in size from 1,725 to 2,175 square feet and for 2008 had an average price of $253,595. Graph III 100% 75% 50% Market Share for Detached Homes Closings by Price Range $600,000+ $500K to $600K $400K to $500K $300K to $400K Fee-simple detached housing accounts for 92.8% of new, detached housing in Hampton Roads. Based on closings, the top new construction, fee-simple, detached community for 2008 was Woodbridge Point in Virginia Beach. There were 68 closings by 5 builders with an average closing price of $392,075. Summit Construction Corp recorded the largest number of closings with 27, yielding an average closing price of $411,033. The top single-family detached condominium community was Belmeade at Ridgely Manor by Dragas Homes in Virginia Beach. The community had 26 closings in 2008 with an average closing price of $378, % 0% Resale New Construction $200K to $300K <$200,000 There is currently standing inventory of 1,081 new construction, single-family detached homes. Based on the sales pace of 2008 this is a supply of 8 months. The Multi-Story Condominium market experienced both highs and lows during With 63

8 2009 RESIDENTIAL the abundance of inventory in the market, permits were down 16.9% from 2007 with only 111 issued. Closings were up 38.9% to 411 closings records, due in large part to Southmoor at Ridgely Manor. Norfolk experienced a 35.2% loss during 2008, with 94 closings for the year. With regard to elevator served buildings, the top multi-story condominium for 2008 was the Westin Residences at Town Center. There were 61 closings, with an average price of $739,622. Based on the sales pace of 2008, Hampton Roads has a current supply of more than 5 years of multi-story inventory. Multi-Plex condominium permits accounted for 22.9% of all new, attached housing permits issued in Hampton Roads during There were 252 permits issued, a decline of 29% from The largest decline occurred in Isle of Wight County, down 81.5% to 10 permits for the year. Graph IV 100% Market Share for Attached Homes Closings by Price Range There were 329 multi-plex condominium closings recorded in This is a decline of 31.9% from All areas suffered declines except for Chesapeake and Suffolk where the introduction of affordable product lines helped to inflate the number of closings. 75% 50% $500+ $400K to $500K $300K to $400K The top multi-plex community for 2008 was Remington Park in Suffolk by Chesapeake Homes. The community is made up of 184 three-story back to back units ranging in size from 1,600 to 1,750 square feet. During 2008 there were 67 closings recorded with an average price of $199, % 0% Resale New Construction $200K to $300K <$200,000 Townhome and Duplex permits experienced the smallest decline of all the product types during 2008 with a loss of 17.9%. More than half of the municipalities experienced a decline in permits with Isle of Wight County having the highest percentage loss. Closings were off 14.5% from last year, with 739 closings recorded. The largest loss occurred on the Southside, where closings dropped 16.4%. The Peninsula dropped 10.8% to 265 closings recorded. Townhomes and duplexes closings were the most prominent form of new, attached housing with a 50% market share. The top townhome community in Hampton Roads for 2008 was Liberty Crossing in James City County by Ryan Homes. The community features 2 and 3 story fee simple townhomes with 1 car garages. In 2008, there were 69 closings recorded with an average price of $267, Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review 64

9 AGE RESTRICTED COMMUNITIES There are currently 15 new construction, active adult, age restricted communities in Hampton Roads. During 2008, these communities yielded 181 closings, a market share of 5.5% of all new construction closings. This was a decline of 29.6% from a year ago. There were 168 permits issued, a decline of 34.6% from The top new construction, age restricted community for 2008 was Colonial Heritage in James City County by Lennar Corporation. There were 58 closings recorded with an average closing price of $381,139. The age restricted market continues to be challenging in Hampton Roads. The most successful communities are designed with the traditional active adult model in mind and, as a result, have had better sales results. The builders of two communities propose to have the age restricted proffer removed on their sites so as to appeal to a larger market. Based on the closing pace of 2008 it will take over 13 years to absorb the 3,300+ homes/lots in the currently active communities. In addition, more than 1,000 additional homes have been approved throughout Hampton Roads. EXISTING HOME MARKET Existing home closings for 2008 were down 24.9% from 2007 with 13,957 closings reported for the year. The 2008 average closing price for an existing home in Hampton Roads was $251,098, a decline of 4% or $10,408 from Overall, the average size of these homes was 1,775 square feet with an average price per square foot of $141. The average market time to sell an existing home was 84 days, the largest number of days since 1994 when market time tracking began. Graph V Average Market Time Existing Home Closings Days On Market

10 2009 RESIDENTIAL Detached, existing homes accounted for 76.3% of all existing home closings during 2008, with 10,643 closings reported. Closings were down 22.4% for the entire year, with the fourth quarter experiencing the largest loss with a 33.1% decline year over year. All municipalities except Williamsburg experienced losses, with Gloucester County experiencing the largest percentage decline (32.1%) from Virginia Beach closed 2,740 during 2008, a decline of 20.5% from year ago numbers. The average home size of the closings reported during the year was 1,893 square feet, with an average price per square foot of $140. Homes in the $200,000 to $300,000 price range experienced the largest number of closings with 39.5% of the detached resale market and experienced the shortest marketing time with 77 days. The majority of inventory homes in Hampton Roads are existing, single-family detached homes, with 66% of the total market availability. There are currently 7,841 existing, detached homes on the market in Hampton Roads. Based on the sales pace of 2008, this is a supply of 8.3 months. Of these, the price range with the largest amount of inventory is the $200,000 to $300,00 price range with 2,439 active listings, representing 31% of existing single-family detached homes. This is a supply of approximately 6.8 months. There are currently 812 high end homes actively listed for more than $600,000; at the sales pace of 2008, this represents a supply of more than 2 years. Attached, existing home closings were down 32% from 2007 with 3,314 reported. The fourth quarter experienced the largest loss with only 539 closings reported; a decline of 42.2%, year over year. All municipalities experienced a decline in the number of closings reported; Hampton and Portsmouth experienced the highest percentage declines with 43.6% and 51.5% respectively. The average home size of the closings reported was 1,393 square feet, with an average price per square foot of $143. Attached homes in the $100,000 to $200,00 price range commanded the largest percentage of the market with 63%. Surprisingly, homes in the $600,000 had the lowest market time, with an average of 59 days to sell a home. Attached, existing homes account for 20.3% of all Hampton Roads housing inventory with 2,431 homes on the market. Based on the sales pace of 2008, this is a supply of 8.5 months. The majority of these homes (50.3%) are in the $100,000 to $200,000 price range. Foreclosed home closings increased significantly during There were 888 existing home foreclosure closings, an increase of 262% from This represents a 6.4% share of the existing home market during 2008, up significantly from the 1.3%, market share in There are currently 570 foreclosed homes listed in REIN, which is 7.3% of all existing homes currently listed. Additionally, there are currently 476 short sale listings on the market. The majority (61.2%) of foreclosed/short sale active listings are less than $200,000. TOTAL MARKET NUMBERS The combined number of new construction and resale closings for 2008 total 17,268, down 24% from The Southside areas closed 12,364 homes, off 24.1%, while the Peninsula areas closed 4,904 homes off 23.9% from The combined average price for homes in Hampton Roads, both new construction and resale was $272,323 down 4.3% from last year Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review 66

11 Graph VI Hampton Roads Short Sale/Foreclosure Market Share (July 2007 to December 2008) % 120 Total Short Sale/ Foreclosure Closings Total Closings % Number of Closings % 8% 6% 4% % Total Closings % 0 JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 0% Graph VII 15 Year Closing New Construction & Resale History 25,000 20,000 Resale New Construction Number of Closings 15,000 10,000 5,

12 2009 RESIDENTIAL Table IV Southside Top 10 Subdivisions Ranked by Permits No. of Permits # Community Builder Issued 1. Ridgely Manor, V Dragas Associates Brighton Park, C Dragas Associates Woodbridge Pointe, V Various Builders Cornerstone, V Chesapeake Homes Sajo Farms, V Napolitano Ent. & 49 Terry Peterson Residential 6. Summer Park, C Various Builders East Beach, R Various Builders Broad Creek, R Various Builders Towne Park, C Hearndon Construction Hampton Roads Crossing, S Terry Peterson Residential 30 Peninsula Top 10 Subdivisions Ranked by Permits No. of Permits # Community Builder Issued 1. Liberty Crossing, J Ryan Homes Riverwalk Townes, Y Ryan Homes Colonial Heritage, J Lennar Corp Stoneshouse, J Various Builders Fords Colony, J Various Builders H2O, H Chesapeake Homes Courthouse Square, G Centex Homes Villas at Five Forks, J Villa Development Michelle Point, J Health E Community Whitehall, J HHHunt Homes & 24 Ryan Homes Table V Southside Top 10 Subdivisions Ranked by Closings No. Average # Community Builder Closed Price 1. Ridgely Manor, V Dragas Associates 199 $244, Woodbridge Pointe, V Various Builders 68 $392, Remington Park, S Chesapeake Homes 67 $199, The Westin Residences, V Armada Hoffler 61 $739, Villas at Bellamy, V Dragas Associates 55 $206, New Port, V Chesapeake Homes 47 $239, Eagle Harbor, I Various Builders 44 $336, Eagle Lake, C Centex Homes 44 $361, Harbor Heights, R Robinson Development Group 41 $550, Heritage Park, V Various Builders 35 $660,989 Peninsula Top 10 Subdivisions Ranked by Closings No. Average # Community Builder Closed Price 1. Liberty Crossing, J Ryan Homes 69 $267, Courthouse Square, G Centex Homes 63 $236, Colonial Heritage, J Lennar Corp 58 $381, New Town Various Builders 57 $315, Patrick Henry Place Centex Homes 56 $214, Stonehouse, J Various Builders 53 $532, Riverwalk Townes, Y Ryan Homes 42 $259, Braemar Creek, J Franciscus Homes 28 $265, Courthouse Spring, G Centex Homes 24 $291, Hampshire Glen Various Builders 22 $379, Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review 68

13 2008 Top 25 Hampton Roads Builders Permits BY PERMITS ISSUED, CLOSINGS RECORDED & TOTAL REVENUE PERMITS ISSUED CLOSINGS # OF CLOSINGS TOTAL REVENUE BUILDER PERMITS ISSUED BUILDER PERMITS ISSUED BUILDER PERMITS ISSUED 1 Dragas Associates Dragas Associates Dragas Associates 74,786, Ryan Homes Chesapeake Homes Chesapeake Homes 72,655, Chesapeake Homes Centex Homes Centex Homes 59,883,888 4 Centex Homes 93 4 Ryan Homes Armada Hoffler 55,030,502 5 Hearndon Constr Corp 73 5 Armada Hoffler 94 5 Ryan Homes 53,279,442 6 Terry/Peterson Res 70 6 Franciscus Co Inc 87 6 Hearndon Constr Corp 26,192,763 7 Franciscus Co Inc 51 7 Hearndon Constr Corp 75 7 Franciscus Co Inc 23,270,070 8 McQ Bldrs & Dev Inc 50 8 Terry/Peterson Res 71 8 Robinson Dev Group 22,586,184 9 Lennar Corp 48 9 Lennar Corp 58 9 Terry/Peterson Res 22,579,504 9 Villa Development 48 9 McQ Bldrs & Dev Inc Lennar Corp 22,106, HHHunt Homes Atlantic Homes Corp The Futura Group 19,260, Napolitano Ent Inc L L Bldg Corp McQ Bldrs & Dev Inc 18,889, Pace Constr & Dev Corp Pace Constr & Dev Corp The Ainslie Group 18,030, Bishard Dev Corp Robinson Dev Group Solid Concepts Inc 16,105, Tivest Dev The Ainslie Group Lifestyle Homes LLC 15,677, Associated Contr Svc Inc The Futura Group Stephen Alexander Homes 15,622, Ashdon Bldrs Inc Lifestyle Homes LLC L L Bldg Corp 13,084, Powell Dev Inc Stephen Alexander Homes Wermers Dev Corp 12,764, Stephen Alexander Homes Wermers Dev Corp Wayne Harbin Bldr Inc 12,337, L L Bldg Corp HHHunt Homes HHHunt Homes 12,195, The Ainslie Group Beacon Bldg Group Atlantic Homes Corp 12,070, Summit Constr Corp Solid Concepts Inc Napolitano Ent Inc 11,877, Solid Concepts Inc Summit Constr Corp Beacon Bldg Group 11,775, Eagle Constr Virginia Ent Inc Summit Constr Corp 11,683, Health E Community Ent Inc Napolitano Ent Inc Virginia Ent Inc 11,317, Habitat for Humanity 27 69

14

15 Residential Submarkets Southside Chesapeake. Franklin/So. Hampton Isle of Wight Co Norfolk Portsmouth Suffolk Virginia Beach Peninsula Hampton James City County Newport News York County 71

16