Regional Housing Foreclosure Summit Foreclosures in the Washington Metropolitan Region

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2 Regional Housing Foreclosure Summit Foreclosures in the Washington Metropolitan Region John C. McClain, AICP Senior Fellow and Deputy Director Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy, George Mason University June 19, 2008

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11 Metro Washington Foreclosure Rate

12 Foreclosures: Mar 07 Feb 08

13 The Economic Backdrop The Housing Market Foreclosures The Outlook

14 The Washington Area Economic Backdrop

15 000s Annual Job Change Washington Metro Annual Change Annual Month-over-the-Year Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

16 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change Apr 07 Apr 08 Thousands Washington + 28,400 Ranked by Total Jobs

17 % 15 Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate April U.S. 4.8% Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Data not seasonally adjusted

18 April 2007 April 2008 Job Change By Sector MSA (Ranked by Size of Sector) (000s) Total = 28,400 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

19 The Washington Area Housing Market

20 Median Home Sales Price Washington Metro Area, $ 2007 Source: NAR, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

21 $ $ Median Sales Price, Existing Homes, All Housing Types, COG Region % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

22 Total Sales, Existing Homes COG Region Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

23 Sales and Total Active Listings Washington MSA, May Each Year Total Listings Sales Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

24 Total Active Listings per Sale May Each Year PG LDN PW MONT FX DC ARL Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

25 Source: Hanley Wood, GMU Center for Regional Analysis New Housing Unit Sales Washington Metro Area 1 st Quarter Each Year

26 % New Housing Contract Kick-Out Rate Washington MSA All Housing Types Annual Average Source: Hanley-Wood, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

27 % Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

28 % Average Sales Price Percent Change Northern Virginia All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

29 % Average Sales Price Percent Change Suburban Maryland All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

30 % Average Sales Price Percent Change District of Columbia All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

31 Existing Homes Average Sales Prices May 2007 May 2008 $ -0.2% -5.6% -25.9% Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

32 Existing Homes Sales May 2007 May % -14.0% % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

33 Foreclosures

34 Wide-reaching Impacts of the Foreclosure Situation Families and Households National and Local Economies Budgets of Local Jurisdictions Well-being of Neighborhoods Homeowners Potential Homebuyers

35 Residential Real Estate Tax = %, DC-MD-VA, of Total Tax Revenue Assuming House Price Change of May 07 May 08 = Change in Assessed Value Assuming All Else Constant Projected % Change in Residential RE Tax Revenues,

36 Metro Comparisons Mortgage Foreclosure Rates Q and Q Foreclosures /10,000 Owner Occupied Units Washington U.S. 2007: : 87 Source: RealtyTrac, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

37 Foreclosures by Month March 2007 February 2008 Washington Metropolitan Area Source: RealtyTrac, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 12 Month Total = 15,613

38 Mortgage Foreclosure Rates by County April 30, 2008 Foreclosures /10,000 units Source: RealtyTrac, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

39 Foreclosure Situations - Historical Divorce Lost Job Economic Downturn Major Unexpected Expenses (e.g., medical) And foreclosure rates were very small

40 Foreclosure Situations - Current Greater proportions of sub-prime loans Greater new home building activity Purchase by speculators Purchase by first-time/other home buyers using subprime mortgages and over-reached. Refinancing also a phenomenon in which owners refinanced with a sub-prime mortgage, taking money out for other expenditures, and then prices dropped. Nationally this is estimated to be more than ½ of all foreclosures.

41 Foreclosure Activity by Jurisdiction Level of Foreclosures Concentrated or Dispersed Hot spots Impending Hot Spots Potential Hot Spots

42 THE OUTLOOK Housing Market Continuing to Adjust Sub-Prime Mortgages Resets Ending Next Several Months ARMS Will Continue Longer Underlying Economic Fundamentals are Good Federal Policy Progress? Local Government and Non-Profit Assistance Programs Needed (1-2 yrs)

43 Foreclosures: Mar 07 Feb 08

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