Value of Building Work Put in Place: December 2011 quarter

Transcription

1 Value of Building Work Put in Place: December 2011 quarter Embargoed until 10:45am 05 March 2012 Key facts In the December 2011 quarter, after price and seasonal factors were removed: All building activity increased 2.9 percent, following more than a year of decreases. Residential building activity increased 4.4 percent, following a small increase in the previous quarter. Non-residential building activity increased 1.4 percent, following three quarters of decreases. In Canterbury, there appeared to be a greater increase in building activity than in the rest of New Zealand, following the 2010 and 2011 earthquakes. In the December 2011 quarter, after price factors were removed, the trend movements were: All building activity showed a small rise, up from the previous quarter's 10-year low. Residential building activity showed a rise, up from the previous quarter's 18-year low. Non-residential building activity fell to the lowest level in nearly eight years, but the rate of decline appears to be easing. Geoff Bascand 5 March 2012 Government Statistician ISSN

2 Commentary Overall building activity increases following historic low Residential building activity increases from lowest level in 18 years Decrease in non-residential building activity shows signs of easing Greater increase in Canterbury's building activity than rest of New Zealand, following earthquakes Related movements Overall building activity increases following historic low Volume The seasonally adjusted volume of all building activity increased 2.9 percent in the December 2011 quarter. This was up from the lowest level since the March 2001 quarter, following over a year of decreases. Residential building activity increased 4.4 percent, following a small increase in the previous quarter. The trend also showed a rise in the latest quarter, up from the previous quarter's 18-year low. In Canterbury, there appeared to be a greater increase in building activity than in the rest of the country in the December 2011 quarter. The Canterbury movements described are only an indication of the effect of the earthquakes in 2010 and 2011, as the survey is designed for accuracy at the national level, not regionally. Seasonally adjusted non-residential building activity increased 1.4 percent, following decreases in the three previous quarters. The increase did not change the direction of the trend, which fell to its lowest level in nearly eight years, but it appeared to slow the rate of decline. The trend for the volume of all building activity rose in the latest quarter, following a fall of 15 percent over the previous four quarters. 2

3 As shown in the graph above, residential building work normally contributes more than nonresidential to the overall volume of building work. However, it contributed 50 percent, on average, in Value In current prices, the seasonally adjusted value of all building work increased 3.6 percent in the December 2011 quarter. This followed more than a year of decreases. In 2011 compared with 2010, the unadjusted value of all building work fell 10 percent, to $9,934 million. This was the first time in eight calendar years that the value dropped below $10 billion. The contribution from residential building was less in 2011 than in

4 Residential building activity increases from lowest level in 18 years Volume In the December 2011 quarter, the seasonally adjusted volume of residential building work increased 4.4 percent, following a smaller increase in the previous quarter. The trend also showed a rise, up from the previous quarter's 18-year low. This rise follows a fall of 21 percent over the previous five quarters. 4

5 Value The seasonally adjusted value of residential building work, in current prices, increased 5.1 percent in the December 2011 quarter, following a small increase in the previous quarter. The trend for the value of residential building work showed the same pattern as the volume trend they both rose in the latest quarter, following five quarters of falls. In 2011, the unadjusted value of residential building work was $5,393 million, down $865 million (14 percent) from Of this annual total, building work on: new dwellings fell $749 million (15 percent) alterations, additions, and out-buildings fell $117 million (8.2 percent). Decrease in non-residential building activity shows signs of easing Volume The seasonally adjusted volume of non-residential building activity increased 1.4 percent in the December 2011 quarter, following a 15 percent decrease over the three previous quarters. This increase has not changed the direction of the trend, which fell throughout It is now at its lowest level since the March 2004 quarter, but the rate of decline appears to be easing. 5

6 Value The seasonally adjusted value of non-residential building work, in current prices, has the same pattern as for the volume. The value increased 1.8 percent in the December 2011 quarter, following three consecutive quarterly decreases. The non-residential building trend, in current prices, fell throughout 2011, but the rate of decline appears to be easing. In 2011, the unadjusted value of non-residential building work was $4,541 million, down $276 million (5.7 percent) from The value of building activity fell for three building types over the year. These were: miscellaneous buildings, down $293 million (19 percent) accommodation buildings, down $74 million (22 percent) hospitals and nursing homes, down $70 million (14 percent). 6

7 The largest annual increase was for commercial buildings, up $59 million (4.6 percent). Greater increase in Canterbury's building activity than in rest of New Zealand, following earthquakes In Canterbury, there appeared to be a greater increase in building activity than in the rest of the country in the December 2011 quarter. This is only an indication of the effect of the earthquakes in 2010 and 2011, as the survey is designed for accuracy at the national level, not regionally. Building consents are often used as an early indicator of building activity, but there are signs that the relationship between consents and activity is changing. In the December 2011 quarter, building consents identified as being earthquake-related in Canterbury totalled $96 million. This comprised $77 million for non-residential building consents, and $18 million for residential building consents. The residential consents included 30 new dwellings. The Building Consents Issued information release for February 2011 will be published on 30 March Related movements For the December 2011 quarter compared with the September 2011 quarter: Construction prices for residential buildings, as published in Capital Goods Price Index: December 2011 quarter, rose 0.4 percent. Construction prices for non-residential buildings, as published in Capital Goods Price Index: December 2011 quarter, rose 0.1 percent. The number of FTEs (full-time equivalents) in the construction industry, as published in Quarterly Employment Survey: December 2011 quarter, rose 1.8 percent. 7

8 The seasonally adjusted number of new dwellings authorised, including apartments, as published in Building Consents Issued: December 2011, fell 0.9 percent. (Consent figures measure the intention to build.) 8

9 Definitions About the value of building work put in place These quarterly releases provide estimates of the value and volume of work put in place on construction jobs in New Zealand. The value of building work includes residential building work and non-residential building work, which are summed to give all building work. The value of building work put in place measures activity in the construction sector, and complements building consents issued information (which represents the intention to build). More definitions Accommodation buildings: includes hostels, boarding houses, prisons, workers quarters, hotels, motels, and motor camp buildings. Alterations, additions, and outbuildings: includes alterations and additions to dwellings and outbuildings, and new outbuildings. Building consents issued statistics: include the number, value, and floor area of residential dwellings, and the value and floor area of non-residential buildings, by region and building type. Values include GST and are not inflation-adjusted. Buildings are classified according to their main intended function or functions. Subsequent changes in function will only be recorded in the statistics if new consents are issued. Commercial buildings: includes shops, restaurants, taverns, offices, and administration buildings. Miscellaneous buildings: includes social, cultural, religious, recreational, storage, and farm buildings. New dwellings: includes houses, flats, and apartments. Non-residential buildings: includes the following categories: accommodation buildings hospitals and nursing homes factories and industrial buildings commercial buildings education buildings miscellaneous buildings. Outbuildings: includes garages, glasshouses, and sheds on residential sections. Residential buildings: includes both new dwellings, and 'alterations, additions, and outbuildings'. 9

10 Related links Upcoming releases Value of Building Work Put in Place: March 2012 will be released on 6 June The Release calendar lists all our upcoming information releases by date of release. Past releases See the Value of Building Work Put in Place information releases for links to past releases. Related information Building consents issued information releases contain statistics on the number, value, and floor areas of residential dwellings and the value of non-residential buildings by building type. Earthquake-related building consents in Canterbury comprise the number of new dwellings (including relocatable units), and the value of consents for new/alterations/additions to: residential buildings; non-residential buildings; all buildings; and non-building construction (eg swimming pools, bridges). Capital goods price index (CGPI) information releases provide information on changes in the general price level of fixed capital assets. Statistics for the value of building work put in place use two CGPI sub-indexes, residential and non-residential buildings. These are used to deflate (ie remove the effects of price changes from) building activity values, giving the volume of building activity (also known as a constant price series). 10

11 Data quality Period-specific information This section contains information about data that has changed since the previous release. Sample errors for the December 2011 quarter Non-response imputation for the December 2011 quarter Low-value consents General information This section contains information about data that does not change between releases. Data source Quarterly Building Activity Survey design Excluded consents Measurement errors Non-sample errors Effect of the Canterbury earthquakes More information Period-specific information Sample errors for the December 2011 quarter Estimates for the value of building work put in place are derived mainly from a sample survey and are therefore subject to sample errors. Sample errors for the December 2011 quarter Percentage of total value of work put in place Residential buildings 4.0 Non-residential buildings 4.3 All buildings 3.0 The sample is designed to produce statistics at the 95 percent confidence interval limit. This means that for all buildings, for example, there is a 95 percent probability that the true value of work put in place this quarter is within plus or minus 3.0 percent of the published estimate. Non-response imputation for the December 2011 quarter For building projects where no survey response is received, Statistics NZ imputes values for work put in place, based on responses for comparable projects. Non-response values imputed for the December 2011 quarter Imputed values Percentage of category Percentage of all buildings $(million) value value Residential buildings $ Non-residential buildings $ All buildings $

12 Low-value consents Low-value consents are residential building consents valued from $5,000 up to $45,000, and non-residential building consents valued from $5,000 up to $80,000. For these consents, it is assumed that: the consent value represents the value of work put in place consented work will be done during the month following issuing of the consent. Low-value jobs are therefore valued directly from consents (after a one-month lag), rather than by postal survey. The following table shows the values included for the December 2011 quarter. Low-value consents included for the December 2011 quarter Low-value consents Percentage of $(million) category value Residential buildings Non-residential buildings Percentage of all buildings value All buildings General information Data source Data on the value of building work put in place is obtained each quarter primarily by a postal survey of builders, owners, and other applicants. This survey, the Quarterly Building Activity Survey (QBAS), is based on building consent data. Quarterly Building Activity Survey design Building consents issued by councils are grouped each month into four value ranges for residential buildings, and four value ranges for non-residential buildings. The value ranges are as follows. Highest-value range for all consents, builders or consent applicants are surveyed to obtain values for building work put in place during the quarter. Second- and third-value ranges a sample of builders or consent applicants is surveyed and the quarterly values collected are rated up, to represent both surveyed and nonsurveyed building work. Lowest value range the consent values are used to represent the quarterly value of building work put in place. Surveyed building jobs that are not completed at the end of the quarter are surveyed again in following quarters until the work is finished. The rating up of sampled values and calculation of sampling error are complex and depend on factors that differ for each value range and month of selection. For more detailed information on the survey methodology, contact us at info@stats.govt.nz or the Statistical Methods Section, Statistics New Zealand, Private Bag 4741, Christchurch. 12

13 Excluded consents Consents valued below $5,000 are excluded from statistics for the value of building work put in place. The value of excluded consents is estimated to be less than 1 percent of published values. Measurement errors All statistical estimates are subject to measurement errors, comprising both sample errors and non-sample errors. The value of building work put in place is also imputed for those surveyed respondents that didn't respond. These measurement errors should be considered when analysing the results from the survey. Non-sample errors These errors can occur when there is incomplete or incorrect information on survey or building consent forms, or when information is incorrectly delivered, interpreted, or classified. While much effort is made to minimise these errors, they will still occur, and it is not possible to quantify their effect. Effect of the Canterbury earthquakes Building consents are often used as an early indicator of building activity, however there are signs that the relationship between consents and activity is changing. It is difficult to quantify the impact of this changing relationship on the national value of building work put in place in a given quarter. More information More Information about the Building Work Put in Place is available on our website. Liability While all care and diligence has been used in processing, analysing, and extracting data and information in this publication, Statistics NZ gives no warranty it is error-free and will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by the use directly, or indirectly, of the information in this publication. Timing Timed statistical releases are delivered using postal and electronic services provided by third parties. Delivery of these releases may be delayed by circumstances outside the control of Statistics NZ. Statistics NZ accepts no responsibility for any such delays. Crown copyright This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 New Zealand licence. You are free to copy, distribute, and adapt the work, as long as you attribute the work to Statistics NZ and 13

14 abide by the other licence terms. Please note you may not use any departmental or governmental emblem, logo, or coat of arms in any way that infringes any provision of the Flags, Emblems, and Names Protection Act Use the wording 'Statistics New Zealand' in your attribution, not the Statistics NZ logo. 14

15 Contacts For media enquiries contact: Blair Cardno Christchurch For technical information contact: Tina Waterhouse or Clara Eatherley Christchurch For general enquiries contact our Information Centre: Phone: (toll-free in New Zealand) (outside New Zealand) info@stats.govt.nz 15

16 Tables The following tables are included with this release. They are available in Excel format from the 'Downloads' box of Value of Building Work Put in Place: December 2011 quarter on the Statistics NZ website. If you do not have access to Excel, you may use the Excel file viewer to view, print, and export the contents of the file. 1. Value of building work put in place December quarter 2. Value of building work put in place, seasonally adjusted and trend values 3. Value of building work put in place, constant price values at September 1999 quarter prices 4. Related series Access more data on Infoshare Use Infoshare, a free, online database to access time-series data specific to your needs. Select the following categories from the homepage: Subject category: Industry Sectors Group: Building Activity Survey - BAS 16

17 Value of Building Work Put in Place: December 2011 quarter Table 1 Value of Building Work Put in Place December Quarter (1) Residential buildings Non-residential buildings (2)(3) New Alterations, Total Accomm- Hospitals, Factories Commercial Education Misc- Total Total dwellings additions residential odation nursing and buildings (5) buildings ellaneous non- all and out- buildings buildings (4) homes industrial buildings (6) residential buildings buildings buildings buildings Series ref: BAS S2C S2D S2E S2F S2G S2H S2I S2J S2K S2L S2M $(million) Year ended December ,307 1,332 7, , ,358 5,096 12, ,150 1,383 8, , ,431 5,032 13, ,946 1,377 7, , ,613 5,220 12, ,570 1,305 5, , ,555 4,896 10, ,832 1,426 6, , ,578 4,817 11, ,083 1,309 5, , ,285 4,541 9,934 Quarter 2008 Dec 1, , ,377 2, Mar 1, , ,237 2,671 Jun 1, , ,283 2,716 Sep 1, , ,247 2,696 Dec 1, , ,129 2, Mar 1, , ,051 2,453 Jun 1, , ,191 2,885 Sep 1, , ,234 2,888 Dec 1, , ,341 2, Mar 1, , ,068 2,400 Jun , ,155 2,451 Sep 1, , ,144 2,499 Dec 1, , ,174 2,584 Percentage change from same period of previous year Year ended December Quarter 2008 Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Values exclude GST. Consents below $5,000 are excluded. 2. Includes alterations and additions. 3. Consent values for multi-purpose buildings are coded to one or more of the most appropriate building types. 4. Accommodation buildings include hostels, boarding houses, prisons, workers' quarters, hotels, motels, and motor camp buildings. 5. Commercial buildings include shops, restaurants, taverns, offices, and administration buildings. 6. Miscellaneous buildings include social, cultural, religious, recreational, storage, and farm buildings.

18 Value of Building Work Put in Place: December 2011 quarter Table 2 Value of Building Work Put in Place (1) Seasonally adjusted and trend values (2) Residential buildings Non-residential buildings All buildings Unadjusted Seasonally Trend (4) Unadjusted Seasonally Trend (4) Unadjusted Seasonally Trend (4) adjusted (3) adjusted (3) adjusted (3) Series ref: BAS S2E SS2P ST2P S2L SS2Q ST2Q S2M SS2S ST2S $(million) Quarter 2006 Dec 2,048 1,975 1,964 1,238 1,205 1,232 3,287 3,181 3, Mar 1,824 1,986 2,006 1,177 1,292 1,253 3,001 3,278 3,259 Jun 2,102 2,104 2,102 1,214 1,210 1,225 3,316 3,314 3,326 Sep 2,312 2,211 2,211 1,274 1,207 1,232 3,587 3,418 3,443 Dec 2,294 2,220 2,198 1,367 1,329 1,294 3,661 3,550 3, Mar 1,912 2,048 2,063 1,169 1,282 1,286 3,082 3,330 3,349 Jun 1,906 1,908 1,921 1,256 1,247 1,275 3,162 3,154 3,196 Sep 1,884 1,805 1,768 1,417 1,352 1,322 3,302 3,157 3,090 Dec 1,621 1,571 1,620 1,377 1,337 1,356 2,998 2,909 2, Mar 1,435 1,551 1,514 1,237 1,349 1,334 2,671 2,900 2,849 Jun 1,433 1,430 1,437 1,283 1,273 1,282 2,716 2,703 2,719 Sep 1,449 1,390 1,417 1,247 1,198 1,182 2,696 2,588 2,601 Dec 1,558 1,518 1,478 1,129 1,092 1,117 2,687 2,609 2, Mar 1,402 1,509 1,578 1,051 1,142 1,132 2,453 2,650 2,698 Jun 1,693 1,685 1,640 1,191 1,185 1,173 2,885 2,870 2,807 Sep 1,654 1,593 1,601 1,234 1,191 1,224 2,888 2,784 2,826 Dec 1,509 1,472 1,493 1,341 1,290 1,241 2,850 2,762 2, Mar 1,332 1,429 1,397 1,068 1,162 1,198 2,400 2,591 2,595 Jun 1,296 1,288 1,315 1,155 1,150 1,132 2,451 2,438 2,448 Sep 1,355 1,308 1,312 1,144 1,106 1,121 2,499 2,414 2,434 Dec 1,410 1,375 1,366 1,174 1,125 1,113 2,584 2,500 2,480 Percentage change from previous quarter Quarter 2006 Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Includes alterations and additions. Excludes GST and consents below $5, Seasonally adjusted and trend values, particularly for the latest quarters, are subject to revision each quarter. 3. Seasonally adjusted values exclude estimated seasonal fluctuations. 4. Trend values exclude estimated seasonal fluctuations and short-term irregular movements. Symbol:... not applicable. (Because of seasonality it can be misleading to compare unadjusted values for adjacent quarters.)

19 Value of Building Work Put in Place: December 2011 quarter Table 3 Value of Building Work Put in Place (1) Constant price values at September 1999 quarter prices (2) Residential buildings (3) Non-residential buildings (4) All buildings (5) Unadjusted (6) Seasonally Trend (8) Unadjusted (6) Seasonally Trend (8) Unadjusted (6) Seasonally Trend (8) adjusted (7) adjusted (7) adjusted (7) Series ref: BAS S2EAK S2ESK S2ETK S2LAK S2LSK S2LTK S2MAK S2MSK S2MTK $(million) Quarter 2006 Dec 1,421 1,372 1, ,352 2,277 2, Mar 1,254 1,363 1, ,137 2,331 2,316 Jun 1,425 1,425 1, ,335 2,335 2,343 Sep 1,546 1,480 1, ,497 2,381 2,399 Dec 1,515 1,467 1,453 1, ,528 2,451 2, Mar 1,252 1,338 1, ,109 2,276 2,293 Jun 1,238 1,238 1, ,154 2,149 2,172 Sep 1,206 1,158 1,137 1, ,224 2,129 2,089 Dec 1,040 1,009 1, ,031 1,970 2, Mar ,815 1,967 1,935 Jun ,860 1,852 1,863 Sep ,861 1,789 1,793 Dec 1, ,850 1,796 1, Mar , ,690 1,825 1,855 Jun 1,088 1,083 1, ,980 1,970 1,928 Sep 1,059 1,022 1, ,982 1,914 1,946 Dec , ,974 1,911 1, Mar ,654 1,785 1,790 Jun ,685 1,676 1,681 Sep ,705 1,649 1,663 Dec ,756 1,698 1,684 Percentage change from previous quarter Quarter 2006 Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Includes alterations and additions. Excludes GST and consents below $5, Constant price (deflated) values have the effect of price change removed to give a better measure of changes in building activity. 3. Deflated using the capital goods price index series for residential construction. 4. Deflated using the capital goods price index series for non-residential construction. 5. Values are calculated as the sum of residential and non-residential building values. 6. Deflated to remove price movements, but not adjusted for seasonal or irregular changes. 7. Excludes price movements and regular seasonal fluctuations. Subject to revision each quarter. 8. Excludes price movements, regular seasonal fluctuations, and irregular short-term changes. Subject to revision each quarter. Symbol:... not applicable. (Because of seasonality it can be misleading to compare unadjusted values for adjacent quarters.)

20 Value of Building Work Put in Place: December 2011 quarter Table 4 Related Series Series reference: Building consents Capital goods International National Production (1) Quarterly Residential issued (1)(2) price index (1) migration (1) population (1)(3) employment mortgage Residential Non- Residential Non- Net Estimated Ready- survey (1) yield (4) buildings residential buildings residential permanent resident mixed Construction Registered buildings buildings and population concrete industry, banks long-term paid hours BLDQ. BLDQ. CEPQ. CEPQ. ITMQ. DPEQ. SEPQ. QEXQ. BASQ. S9D2S S9F2S S2GA S2GB SPZNA SDAC SAFRZ SIAE SIR $(million) Index number Number No. (million) m 3 (000) 000 hrs/week Percent Quarter 2007 Dec 1,831 1, , , Mar 1,792 1, , , Jun 1,697 1, , , Sep 1,477 1, , , Dec 1,294 1, , , Mar 1,159 1, , , Jun 1,168 1, , , Sep 1, , , Dec 1,466 1, , , Mar 1, , , Jun 1, , , Sep 1, , , Dec 1, , , Mar 1, , Jun 1, , , Sep 1, , , Dec 1, P 655 3, Percentage change from same quarter of previous year Quarter 2007 Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec P Statistics New Zealand's information releases. 2. Building consents issued figures are seasonally adjusted. 3. National population estimates are at end of period. 4. Residential mortgage yields are quarterly averages of month-end weighted average yields, and include fixed and floating interest rates. For commercial loans, indicator rates, such as the 90-day bank bill yield, are available at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand website. Symbols: P provisional... not applicable