MARKET OUTLOOK MOSCOW & SAINT PETERSBURG

Transcription

1 MARKET OUTLOOK MOSCOW & SAINT PETERSBURG Asset management department March 207

2 The results of Q 207 MARKET STATE : The key rate has decreased to 0% from 9,75% (from 27 march 207). For the period Jan-Feb 207 inflation continues to decelerate at 0.8% in Russia (against.6% in 206). In 207, the Ministry of Economic Development forecasts inflation at %. Ruble has strengthened, Dollar rate is 58,75 RUB/USD in Q 207 (63,RUB/USD in 4Q 206). MOSCOW MARKET STATE: OFFICE: reducing vacancy rates. In Q 207 there was an increase in rental rates in the high-end segment, for the first time since Q RETAIL: The vacancy fell for the first time since 4Q 204. For the shopping gallery there is an increase in the upper limit of the price range. SAINT PETERSBURG MARKET STATE : OFFICE: reducing vacancy rates in A and B classes. The vacancy level in the A class overcame the mark of 0% and amounted to 9.7% (level 3Q 203) RETAIL: reducing vacancy rates (from 2Q 206). The fluctuation of the average rental rate is within 0.5%. APARTMENTS: The share of the buy-to-let format has increased (from 26% to 42% of the total volume of units). 2

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4 INVESTMENT MOSCOW MARKET IN THE RUN-UP TO CLOSING OF MAJOR DEALS COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT: (commercial real estate and land plots) Q 207 г. 662 ml USD / ml RUB. (dynamics to 4Q 206 г.: -40% in USD, -44% in RUB). Q 207 INVESTMENT STRUCTURE: Commercial real estate 96%; Land plots 4%. RESULTS: Total investment in Q 207 in Moscow is below the level of quartery investments for 206. Office segment occupied about 87% of commercial real estate deals. The biggest deals in Q 207 are - purchase of space in the tower "Eurasia" (22.4 thousand square meters) - intercompany transaction "VTB 24", for 4.7 billion rubles. 53% of office space purchased by companies for their own use. The share of real estate in the structure of demand for commercial real estate is 2%. FORECAST: In 2Q 207, several large transactions in the office and warehouse segments are expected to close in the amount of about million USD (38-57 billion RUB). 4

5 OFFICE MOSCOW THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR SHOWED THE RESULTS OF DECELERATION OF NEW DELIVERIES LEASE RATE NEW DELIVERIES: Q 207 5,8 K sq.m. GLA (dynamics to 4Q 206: +6,4%). Business Centre «NEO GEO» (class В+). MARKET STATE: Rental rates for each class (dynamics to 4Q 206): «А» 980 RUB/sq.m a month ( +4,8%); «В+» 430 RUB/sq.m a month ( +7,5%); Vacancy for each class (dynamics 4Q 206): «А» 2,3% ( -6,0% or -,3 pp.); «В+» 4,3% ( -2,7% or -2,0 pp.); Major rental rates (over 3.0 K sq.m.): 0,3 K sq.m. Business Centre «Aurora» (tenant «Yandex»); «В» 9,2% ( -8,0% or -0,8 pp.); «С» 8,4% ( -8,6% or -0,8 pp.). 6,6 K sq.m. Business Centre «White Gardens» (tenant JSC «Servie»); 3,2 K sq.m. Business Centre «Silver City» (tenant «ERGO»). «В» 0 RUB/sq.m a month ( +4,7%); «С» 880 RUB/sq.m a month ( -3,3%). RESULTS : Deceleration in the pace of entering office space. Traditionally (start from 4Q205), was introduced the class B +. Reduction of vacant areas. All major transactions fall on high-class offices: Class A - 8% of the total leased space, class B + - 9%. Raising rental rates in the high-end segment, for the first time since the end of 203, in some sites, growth has reached 20%. VACANCY FORECAST : By the end of 207, it is planned to commission about 430 K sq.m (GLA) of office space. Of this volume, more than 60% will occur on 3Q 207. In 2Q 207 is expected to enter object class A area of K sq.m(gla). In 2Q 207, the trend towards an increase in the occupancy of business centers will continue. 5

6 RETAIL MOSCOW THE FIRST THAW IN THE MARKET NEW DELIVERIES: Q 207 г.,3 K sq.m. GLA (dynamics to 4Q 206: -9%). The TC "BabyStore" was introduced, it is positioned as "the first specialized shopping center for goods and services for children and their parents" (in the CAO). MARKET CONDITIONS: Rental rates (dynamics to 4Q 206): For the shopping gallery 37,3 RUB/sq.m a month ( -4,%); For anchor tenants 2,9 RUB/sq.m a month (0%). Vacancy rates (dynamics to 4Q 206): 2,0% ( -4% or -0,5 pp.) Major rental rates (over 3.0 K sq.m): In the existing shopping centers: 6 K sq.m. In the shopping center "June" (tenant "Hoff"), 3,9K sq.m. In the shopping center "Fifth Avenue" (tenant "Ginza Project"), 3,0 K sq.m. In the shopping center "Mosaic" (tenant "Sportmaster"). In the under construction shopping centers: 26.7 K sq.m. In the shopping center "Salaris" (tenant "Globus"), 3.K sq.m. In the shopping center "Fili Grad" (tenant "Fitness One Art"). RESULTS : Decrease in the vacancy rate in Q 207 for the first time since 4Q 204. For the shopping gallery there is an increase in the upper limit of the price range. ПРОГНОЗ: In 2Q.207, the volume of input of commercial real estate can reach about 50 K sq. m GLA (it is planned to open 6 shopping centers). Entering the shopping center will affect the vacancy, it is expected that the vacancy level will increase within 0.5- pp. Essential correction of rental rates is not expected. 6

7 WAREHOUSE Москва IN THE SEGMENT, AGAIN FREEZING NEW DELIVERIES: Q 207 г. 9 K sq.m. GLA ( +0,2% to 4Q 206). Introduced: Class A+ / A: TSC "Klin" (56K sq.m.), "Technopark" (8.7 K sq.m), ORC "Radullya" ( point 3 K sq.m) PSK Nikolsky "(8 K sq.m). Class B: "Nikolo-Khovansky" (4.3 K sq.m), "Nord-Ost" (8.9 K sq.m due to expansion). MARKET CONDITIONS: Rental rates (dynamics to 4Q 206): Class A RUB / sq.m / year( -4%); Class В RUB / sq.m / year( -0%). Vacancy rates (dynamics to 4Q 206): Class A 6,0% ( +,8% or +,7 b.p.); Class В 5,0% ( +32,7% or +3,7 b.p.). RESULTS : For Q of 207, 6 major transactions on leasing of more than 45 K sq.m were made. Class A accounts for about 90% of the total number of transactions. The share of large-scale transactions under the built-to-suit scheme is 60% of the total volume of the leased space. FORECAST: By the end of 207 is expected to enter about K sq.m. (GBA) of warehouse real estate. In 2Q 207 can enter K sq.m. of warehouses. In 2Q 207, the vacancy rate is expected to decrease by -.5 percentage points. And a slight increase in rental rates. 7

8 APARTMENT MOSCOW IN THE SEGMENT STAY PERFECTLY STILL OFFER: The volume of supply Q ap. In complexes, including: Apartment buy-to-live ap. in 97 complexes (90%); Apartment buy-to-let ap. in 4 complexes (0%). The volume of the new offer is 649 ap. ( % to 4Q 206), incl. New projects: 303 ap. 5 projects are all in the buy-to-live format (Sky Skolkovo, Vivaldi, Composers' Residence, Loftec, Sofia). New buildings in the projects under construction: 346 ap. In 3 projects buy-to-live (Savelovsky City, Klein House, Only) MARKET CONDITIONS: Sales prices: Comfort class K RUB / sq.m ( + 3.2% to Q4 206); Business class K RUB / sq.m ( + 0,3% to the 4Q 206); Elite class K RUB / sq.m ( + 2,7% to the 4Q 206). Demand: In the Q 207, there were sold,640 units or 546 units per month. Excluding batch sales ( - % to 4Q 206). RESULTS : The share of comfort class in the total supply volume is 20%, business class a is 65%, elite class is 5%. (In 4Q 206, comfort - 3%, business - 70%, elites - 7%) Average sales rates in apartment complexes: comfort and business class 6-8 ap./project/month, in the elite class 2-4 ap./project/month. The pace of sales at the level of 4Q 206. FORECAST: In the 2Q 207 a slight increase in prices is expected due to the increased availability of projects. Demand can show an increase of 3-5%. 8

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10 INVESTMENT SAINT PETERSBURG A HOT TIME IN THE MARKET INVESTMENT: Q million USD / million RUB (dynamics to 4Q 206: - 36% in USD, - 40% in RUB). Q 207 INVESTMENT STRUCTURE : Commercial real estate - 73%; Land plots - 27%. RESULTS : The largest transaction for the purchase of land in Q the purchase of 3.6 hectares for 4 billion rubles by the company "LSR, on the Petrovsky Island for housing construction. The share of retail real estate in the structure of demand for commercial real estate is 66%. The largest transaction: the sale of "Hals-Development" shopping center LETO" (6 K sq.m.) for 0 billion rubles. (Buyer "MALLTECH", earlier - "RosEuroDevelopment"). The share of office real estate in the structure of demand for commercial real estate is 32%. The largest transaction: the sale of BC "Sistema" (80 K sq.m.) for 545 million rubles. (Buyer of OJSC "DIETA-8"). The Finnish company Sponda leaves the market, selling a Class A logistics complex on the Koltushsky highway (8 K sq. m.) for 258 million rubles. (Buyer of TD "Intertorg"). FORECAST : In the 2Q 207 the volume of investments of St. Petersburg can reach million USD (5-20 billion RUB.). At the signing stage, there is a large deal for the sale of the Horigo logistics complex, Kellermann business center, Premium business center (total area of 20,000 sq. m.) for 4.9 billion rubles by the Northern Horizon Capital Scandinavian fund. (Potential buyer - investment fund "Raven Russia"). 0

11 OFFICE SAINT PETERSBURG THE BRIGHT SIGNS OF RECOVERY NEW DELIVERIES: Q K sq.m GLA (dynamics to 4Q %, dynamics to Q %). Introduced: BC Polis, class B + in the Frunzensky district. MARKET CONDITIONS: Rental rates by class (dynamics to 4Q 206): "A" rubles per sq. m./ month. (0%); B 990 RUB./sq m/month. (0%); "C" 850 RUB./sq m/month. ( +3,7%) "В +" -,30 rubles / sq. m. / month. ( + %); Level of vacancy by grade (dynamics to Q 206): "A" - 9.7% ( -6% or -0.6 p.p.); "B +" -.6% ( + 3% or +0.3 p.p.). The largest lease transactions (over 2 K sq.m.): In the operating business center: 9,3 K sq.m in BC "Smolensky" (tenant "Peter-Service"), 2,5 K sq.m. in BC "Marx" (tenant of the structure of Rosneft), 2.3 K sq.m. in the BC "Passage" (lessee "BIOCAD"). In the under construction BC: 26,2 K sq.m In the BC "Renaissance Business Park" (tenant Gazprom) RESULTS : B 8,4% ( -4,5% or -0,4 p.p); "C" 8,6% ( -9,5% or -0.9 p.p.). Stabilization of the average rental rate at the end of 206. The vacancy rates in Classes A and B continues to decrease. The vacancy rate in Class A - 9.7% - for the first time overcame the mark of 0% from 3Q 203. FORECAST : In 2Q 207, the volume of input can be 9 K sq.m (GLA). Until the end of 207, about 95 K sq.m(gla) can be introduced, about 63% will be allocated to class A. Significant changes in the vacancy rate to current values in 2Q 207 are not expected. By the end of 207, rental rates are expected to increase within 5-0%.

12 RETAIL SAINT PETERSBURG STABILIZATION BEGINS IN SEGMENT NEW DELIVERIES: Q K sq.m. GLA (dynamics to 4Q 206: -59%) The object of the DIY format ("K-Rauta" in Vyborgsky district) has been introduced. MARKET CONDITIONS: Rental rates (dynamics to 4Q 206): For the shopping gallery K RUB / sq. m/ year ( + 0.5%); For anchor tenants K RUB / sq. m/ month. ( -0.3%). Vacancy level (dynamics to 4Q 206): 6.6% ( -6.5% or -.3 pp) The largest lease transactions (over,5 K sq.m.): 3,4 K sq.m in the shopping center "Continent on Strikes" (tenant "Razgon"). 4,0 K sq.m. in the shopping center "Peterland" (tenants "Gloria Jeans", "Tesla").,5 K sq.m in the shopping center "Passage" (tenant "Rive Gauche"). RESULTS : Continuation of the vacancy level reduction (starting from 2Q 206), the rate of decline is high. The average declared rental rates remain at the level of the end of 206. The fluctuation of the average rental rate is within 0.5%. In Q 207, there were active entertainment operators, children's and teenage clothing stores. FORECAST : Until the end of 207, the introduction of quality shopping centers is not planned. The average level of rental rates will increase by 5-7% during the year 2

13 WAREHOUSE SAINT PETERSBURG NEW DELIVERIES: ON THE MARKET TIGHT FROZEN Q K sq.m. GLA ( -60% to 4Q 206). The warehouse of equipment was introduced in the territory of the sea transshipment complex "Bronka" (class A). MARKET CONDITIONS: Rental rates (dynamics to 4Q 206): Class A rub / sq.m / year ( -,2%); Class B - 3,600 rub / sq.m / year ( -,5%); Vacancy level (dynamics to 4Q 206): Class A - 5.7% ( + 8.2% or +.2 pp); Class B - 4.0% ( - 8.5% or -.3 pp). RESULTS: The increase in the vacancy in Class A and the decrease in Class B (starting from 3Q 206) continue. The volume of large transactions is about 8 K sq.m., all transactions are made in class A. FORECAST : In 2Q 207, it is planned to commission about 50 K sq.m, speculative warehouses will account for more than 80%. In 2Q 207, a slight drop in rental rates is possible (within.5%) and an increase in the vacancy rate (within -.5 pp). 3

14 APARTMENT SAINT PETERSBURG ACTIVE MARKET GROWTH OFFER: The volume of offer Q ap. In 3 complex, including: Apartment buy-to-live ap. In 2 complexes (58% of the total volume); Apartment buy-to-let ap. In 0 complexes (42% of the total volume). The volume of the new offer on offer is 564 ap. In 3 complexes ("GRANI", "2nd Murinsky", "Promenade Apart") ( -37% to 4Q 206). The structure of the proposal for positioning - comfort-class - 43%, business class - 47%, elite class - 0% (in 4Q 206, comfort - 49%, business - 37%, elites - 4%). The structure of the offer on characteristics - economy - 42%, comfort class - 5%, business class - 4%, elite class - 2% (in 4Q 206, economy - 43%, comfort - 2%, business - 34% Elites - 2%) MARKET CONDITIONS: Sales prices: Comfort class K sq.m ( + % to 4Q 206); Business class K RUB sq.m ( + 0,3% to 4Q 206); Elite class K sq.m ( -2% to 4Q 206). Demand: In 4Q 207, 320 units or 07 units / months were sold. (Excluding package sales) ( + 60% to 4Q 206). RESULTS : The share of apartments in the buy-to-let format increased by 6 pp. In Q 207, a record quarterly demand was recorded, a record of 4Q 206 was broken. FORECAST : In 2Q 207, 2-3 complexes for 350 to 450 apartments are projected to enter the market. It is forecasted that the volumes of demand will continue to grow and prices will grow within 2-3%. 4

15 Should you have any questions, please contact: Olga Sharygina Director Marketing and consulting department Saint Petersburg About us: NAI Becar is the Russian representative of NAI Global, one of the world's largest commercial real estate firms with front offices in Moscow and St. Petersburg. NAI Becar has a 20 years-history of success on the Russian real estate market. Among our Clients there are the largest Russian and foreign companies and government agencies. NAI Becar is a member of all major professional communities in Russia and abroad. Irina Reut Director Consulting department Saint Petersburg i.reut@naibecar.com Our services: Property management Facility management Investment Infrastructure objects Contact details: Saint Petersburg BC Becar 6 B. Sampsonievsky pr, 94044, Tel.: 007 (82) Foreign investment Consulting Market research Valuation Moscow 9 B. Kislovsky per.,25009 Tel.: 007 (495) Project management Brokerage Sales Promotion