Office real estate market in Moscow

Transcription

1 Office real estate market in Moscow 3 Q 2013 Prepared by GVA Sawyer

2 Office real estate market Macroeconomics January August Russian GDP reached 1,5%. On the basis of the outcome of this year the GDP increase of the country could reach 2,4%. In %. According to the Ministry of Economic Development s forecast Moscow GRP in 2013 will amount to billion rub. The rate of the GRP growth will develop dynamically and will amount to 1,5% in 2013, 2,3% in 2014 and will reach 3,0% in It is reported that on the period of there will be no substantial changes in the structure of the value added. Average per capita of the financial income amounted to rub. In August GRP per capita , thou. rub. The level of the unemployment in Moscow continue to fall. Annual average of employees in economic sphere in Moscow, 2012 Main indicators of the market New requirements for office buildings. In the 2 nd Q of 2013 Moscow Research Forum reconsidered some requirements for office buildings. According to new classification of MRF on the basis of the outcome of 3 rd Q of 2013 as A-class considered 2,6 m. sq. m. of office premises. The amount of business centers B-class is being specified. According to the 3 rd Q of 2013 outcome the total volume of the high-quality office real estate offer amounts to 13,2 m. sq. m., that forms 1,04 sq. m. per person. Rental rates is still stable. Vacancy rate in A class increased to 14%. Main indicators of the Moscow office real estate market, 3 rd Q. of 2013 Main indicators A class B+ class B- class The volume of quality office premises in 3 rd Q. of 2013, thou. sq. m. The office market 20,3% 89,7% structure, 3 rd Q. of Commissioned in 3 rd 125,8 193,2 Q. of 2013, thou. sq. m. Vacant Rate, 3 rd Q. of % 13,5% Declared rental rates 1 $ for sq. m. per year CBD* Other districts Declared sale prices, $ for sq. m. (VAT not included) CBD Other districts Operational expenses, $ for sq. m. per year * CBD - Central Business District Prepared by GVA Sawyer

3 Supply Since the beginning of the year 646 thou. sq. m. of office premises were commissioned, 265 thou. (40%) of which in 3 rd Q. of More than 220 thou. sq. m. Announced to be commissioned for 4 th Q of According to our forecast total volume of the new offer will amount to 750 thou. sq. m. in 2013 and will exceed last year s index. The quality supply volume, A class, В+/В-, thou. sq. m. Source: GVA Sawyer According to the 3 rd Q of 2013, vacancy rate in A class amounts to 14% and 13,5% in В+/В- 1 class. Vacancy rate, Source: GVA Sawyer New projects of office real estate in Moscow, st Q of 2014 Building Name Office area, sq. m. Commissioned / status Commissioned in 1-3Q of 2013 BC White Gardens Q2013 BC "Navigator" Q2013 BC "Newton Plaza" Q2013 BC "Lotte Plaza 2" Q2013 "Shukhova Plaza" Q2013 (reconstruction) BC Quadrum Q2013 BC Wall Street Q2013 BC Nizhegorodsky 1 st Q2013 stage (reconstruction) Golden Gate Q2013 Icube Q2013 BC StreamLine Q2013 BC Usupov Dvor Q2013 (reconstruction) Park Tower Q2013 Rosso Riva Q2013 "Mercury City" Q2013 "Devyat akrov", 2 nd line Q2013 "Riga Land", 2 nd stage Q2013 (Block А) "Country Park 3" Q2013 BC "Leninskoy, 119" Q2013 BC "Maryina Rosha" Q2013 "Vishneviy Sad" Q2013 «Domino» Q2013 Announced to be commissioned in 4 th Q of З ComCity «Bashnya Evraziya» BC part of Community Q2013 Centre Park Pobedy BC Aerodrom Q2013 BC Bolshevik, 1 st line IFC Orbita, 2 nd line Q Premium: West Q BC Neo Geo Q2013 BC «Chameleon» Q2013 «Melnikov House» Q2013 Smart Park Q2013 BC «Nagornoe» Q2013 Bankside Q2013 (reconstruction) "RochDel centre" Q Extracts form 60% from all Moscow BC Prepared by GVA Sawyer

4 The major part of the new offer is still being commissioned in CAD -39%. The distribution of the commissioned offer in 1 st 3 rd Q of 2013 During current 3Q2013 more than 50% of office areas were commissioned, 14% of which are located outside Moscow ring road. The distribution of the commissioned offer in 1 st 3 rd Q of 2013 The increase of the developer activity on the market began last year and continues. The commission of the high-quality office areas during the first 3 Q of the 2013 prevailed more than 2 times the corresponding index of the last year (646 thou. sq.m. comparing with 281 thou. sq. m. in 1 st -3 rd Q of 2012). It is planned to commission in the nearest 3-4 years more than 3 millions sq. m. of the office premises. The major part of the future offer is located in CAD 35% of the ones that are planned to be commissioned. Now in CAD are being commissioned about 40%. In WAD and SWAD, historically popular districts, for office construction will be commissioned 18% and 13% correspondingly. 11% - in New Moscow. This is ComCity (former «Telecom-city»), Business-park К2 and businesspark «Dudkino» and others. The distribution planned for commission of the offer in the nearest 3-4 years, by districts Mercury City (MIBC "Moscow City") Demand The volume of the transactions during 1 st -3 rd Q. of 2013 amounted to 1 million sq. m. The main particular qualities of the demand include: The decrease in the amount of large purchases (area more than sq. m.) The average area under the tenants request is about 500 sq. m. The prevalence in the total volume of the B class bargains (more than 75%). Prepared by GVA Sawyer

5 Among large purchases of the 3 rd Q of 2013 we d like to mention purchase of the BC ICube ("Nakhimovsky, 58") by O1 Properties. Some large BC lease transactions (over sq. m.), announced during 1 st -3 rd Q. of BC Icube (Nakhimovsky) Tenant Lease area, sq. m. Object "Gazprom" BC "Varshavka Sky" Publicis Groupe BC "Bolshevik" "Tinkoff, Kreditnie BC MirLand Sistemy" "Stroytransgaz" BC SkyLight Zurich RUBIN Building INLINE Technologies BC SkyLight CJSC Rusatom Overseas BC «Serebryaniy Gorod» Russian Post Office Nagatino I-Land Kimbely Clark BC "Lotte" Fresenius Medical Care BC Wall Street Renault Black&White RailTransHolding Nagatino I-Land (Newton) KIA Motors RUS BC Lighthouse Rental rates Average rental rates are still stable. Maximum rates on Prime of office areas A class amount to $ $1 300/sq. m. per year (VAT and operational expenses are not included). Rental rates of office areas В+ class - $ , В- class $ The growths of the rental rates is expected in the range of 5%. Average weighted rental rates, not including operational expenses and VAT, $/sq. m. Per year Source: GVA Sawyer Prepared by GVA Sawyer

6 Аналитический документ по исследованию рынка недвижимости 2012 GVA Worldwide Contacts Australia Austria China Cyprus Denmark Estonia Finland Germany Great Britain Greece Hong Kong (PRC) Hungary Ireland Italy Lithuania Netherlands New Zealand Poland Russia Sweden Switzerland Head office (Moscow) Bernikovskaya Embankment House , Russia, Moscow Nikoloyamskaya St., 13, str.17 Тel: +7 (495) Fax: +7 (495) Office in St. Petersburg BC Mir, Efimova St., 4a, office St. Petersburg, Russia Тel: +7 (812) Office in Krasnoyarsk Office in Krasnodar Подготовлено GVA Sawyer