OFFICE MARKET REVIEW

Transcription

1 This review is prepared by the experts of ASTERA, an alliance member of BNP Paribas Real Estate / March 2012 OFFICE MARKET REVIEW Q1 2012

2 2 / COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE / OFFICE / Q ALEXEI RYABICHEV Head of Office Real Estate Department at ASTERA, an alliance member of BNP Paribas Real Estate SUPPLY DEMAND VACANCY RENTAL RATES CAPITALIZATION RATE TRENDS In late 2011 the office market was slack, which can be attributed to the political and economical uncertainty in the country. The office market demonstrates a relative balance between demand and supply. Prices and rent remain stable. There was a slight increase of rental rates, by 5-7%, but only for the most liquid premises in the Central administrative district. It was conditioned by the increased demand for quality, highly equipped offices in prime locations. By the end of Q only three new office properties appeared on the market with an area twice less than that of the ones commissioned in Q If this tendency continues, will face the risk of quality office space deficit in in a 2-3 years perspective. At the end of Q office space take-up amounted to sq.m, which is lower than in Q The highest demand was observed in the central, western and south-western districts of the capital. For example, due to the increased demand for quality office space in the Central administrative district, office premises of sq.m are now in deficit. Only 20-30% of tenant requests lead to actual deals. Most of the requests are of a marketing nature and are aimed at improving the conditions of the current lease agreements. As a rule, the search results in an extension of the current agreements. Key indicators of the office market development (class A and B), Q Office real estate indicators Class A Class B Total volume of office space to the end of the 12,642,468 period, sq.m Total area of commissioned office stock, sq.m 118,582 Vacancy rate level, % 12,0 8,5 Rental rate*, USD/sq.m/p.a. without VAT and 600 1, operational expenses Total area of quality office space and new construction in Q Source: ASTERA, an alliance member of BNP Paribas Real Estate FORECAST FOR 2012 NEW STOCK VOLUME* Class A Class B 5, VACANT AREA 7, , Total stock, 000 sq.m 10,520 New construction, 000 sq.m 11,741 12,524 12, ,037 sq.m 416,825 sq.m Class A 9% Class B 6% Source: ASTERA, an alliance member of BNP Paribas Real Estate * This indicator was calculated based on commission plans for 2012 officially announced by developers. However, due to a possible shift of commission terms for some properties, it is unlikely, that the volume of the new supply will exceed those of 2011.

3 3 / COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE / OFFICE / Q SUPPLY sq.m of quality office space were commissioned in Q1 2012, which is almost two times lower than in Q New business centres commissioned in Q Name Class Address GBA, sq.m Zolotoe Kolco B+ 5 Yuzhnoportovaya st. 46,000 Light House А 28 Valovaya st. 47,113 Ochakovo (industrial building reconstruction) B+ 28 Ochakovskoe av. 25,469 TOTAL 118,582 Zolotoe Kolco business centre The majority of projects expected for commission by the end of 2012 were first announced for 2011, and then postponed. Among them are SKY House, Aquamarine III, Marina Roscha, EKO, Socol bridge II, Atmosfera, Trefoil Plaza, etc. As a result, by the end of office properties with a total area of sq.m are announced for commission. However, considering the macroeconomic instability, shifting of commission terms may continue. New office projects expected to be commissioned in 2012 Light House business centre Name Class Address GBA, sq.m Sky Light А 39 Leningradsky pr. 110,000 Alkon А 72 Leningradsky pr. 102,200 9 akrov А 9 Nahuchny lane 90,738 Aquamarine III А Ozerkovskaya Naberezhnaya 78,500 Park Pobedy, hotel&business 54,900*/ А 1 Vasilisy Kozhinoy st. centre 136,500 Solutions, 2-3 phases B 23А Kirovogradskaya st. 43,780 Riga Land, 2-3 phases B+ Novorizhskoe av., 9 km 36,200 Gasoil City А Crossroad of Nametkina st. and Hersonskaya st. 31,000*/ 207,000 Kantry Park III А 19 Panfilova st. 27,800 Dom na Mosfilmovskoy B+ 2 Pireva st. 24,295 Nahimovsky А 58 Nahimovsky pr. 22,930 Trefoil Plaza B+ 6 Leninsky pr. 20,160 EKO B+ 27 Mironovskaya st. 18,500 Sky House А Mitnaya st. 17,500 Marina Roscha B+ 4 17th Proezd Maryinoy Roshchi 17,500 Leninsky 119 А 119 Leninsky pr. 16,200 Atmosfera, 2-3 phases B+ 27 Suschevskaya st. 16,000 Socol bridge II B+ 21А Kuusinena st. 14,000 City Point А Moskva City 10,000*/ 75,000 TOTAL 752,203 * For the following mixed-use complexes their office parts are considered: Park Popedy 54,900 sq.m, City Point 10,000 sq.m, Gasoil City 31,000 sq.m. Ochakovo business centre offices by class, Q % 21% 30% Class A Class B Class C Source: ASTERA, an alliance member of BNP Paribas Real Estate

4 4 / COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE / OFFICE / Q DEMAND In Q the demand for office space was to a large extent formed by potential tenants who monitored the market. As a result, in spite of an increase in the quantity of requests for rental space, only 20-30% of them led to actual deals. Given that, in Q take-up volume on the office market (90,000 sq.m) was twice lower than the same indicator for Q Demand structure Premises under 500 sq.m remain most popular among office segment tenants. Demand for offices of sq.m is especially high. In Q the highest demand for office space was demonstrated by service and financial companies. Just as in 2011, the demand by IT and industrial companies was stable. In the coming two years one can expect an increasingly active presence of state oil and gas companies on the office market. Geographical distribution of demand District CAO 57% West 20% North 9% City 7% South 5% East 2% Share of demand Source: ASTERA, an alliance member of BNP Paribas Real Estate Considering the historically established business and transport infrastructure of the city, s central and western districts remain the most attractive for office space tenants. Key leasing deals In Q one of largest deals in the office market was concluded by «Rostelecom». The company leased sq.m in the Telecom City business centre on Kievskoe highway. Examples of key leasing deals in business centers in Q Brand GLA, sq.m Business area Address GK Espro Evolution Tower 6,000 Moskva City Tele2 Rossiya Olympia Park 4, Leningradskoe av. Panasonic Shabolovka 31 3, Shabolovka st. Jones Lang LaSalle Vivaldi Plaza 8/4 3,000 Kozhevnicheskaya st. Colliers International Botanichesky 1,500 5 Botanichesky lane GK Novaem Class А+ business centre, Gagarinsky per., 25 1, Gagarinsky lane Vacancy rate Due to the decrease of activity and quantity of office lease and sales transactions, the office market vacancy rate has increased, reaching 13.5% for class A offices and 9% for class B offices. Average level of vacancy in office centers (%), Q Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Class A Class B Source: ASTERA, an alliance member of BNP Paribas Real Estate

5 5 / COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE / OFFICE / Q ABOUT ASTERA ALEXEI FILIMONOV Managing director a.filimonov@asteragroup.ru ASTERA an alliance member of BNP Paribas Real Estate, an international consulting company, provides professional services in commercial and élite residential real estate. The company has been operating on the Russian market since ASTERA has offices in, Saint- Petersburg and Kiev. ALEXANDR SHELUKHIN Investment director a.shelukhin@asteragroup.ru BNP Paribas Real Estate is a leading international real estate company. BNP Paribas Real Estate is among the top European consulting companies by turnover. ALEXEI RYABICHEV Head of Office Real Estate Department a.ryabichev@asteragroup.ru The alliance with BNP Paribas Real Estate gives ASTERA an opportunity to represent its clients abroad and bring foreign investments to Russian development projects. ASTERA LEADERSHIP BASED ON QUALITY AND PROFESSIONALISM OLGA ZBRUEVA Head of Retail Department Tenants Division o.zbrueva@asteragroup.ru Over 500 implemented projects of strategic and investment consultancy In-house exclusive data base comprising 30,000 projects of retail, office, warehouse and elite residential real estate Over 6,000,000 sq.m of commercial real estate space have been realized by ASTERA consultants since 1992 Over 8,500 transactions concluded on the commercial real estate market of Russia and Ukraine Over 4,000 companies, including the major international and Russian financial, investment, retail and industrial corporations and chains are now clients of ASTERA Office in Office in St.Petersburg Office in Kiev Tel.: +7(495) Tel.: +7(812) Tel.: +380(444) Fax: +7(495) Fax : +7(812) Fax: +380(444) office@asteragroup.ru