REAL ESTATE MARKET OF TASHKENT CITY: JANUARY, 2012 RESULTS

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1 Analytical Center «Avesta Research» 36, Navoi Street, Tashkent, Uzbekistan Tel./Fax: Internet: INDUSTRY REVIEW REAL ESTATE February 5, 2012 REAL ESTATE MARKET OF TASHKENT CITY: JANUARY, 2012 RESULTS Residential real estate price index AVEX-Res, a proxy of actual selling price, decreased by 2.6% down to 454 in January; average offered price (AOP) was equal to 547 The most increase in AOP of apartments was observed in apartments located up to 5-10 km away from the center of the city. At the same time, the increase in AOP of apartments was observed in panel houses, while by number of rooms in double-room and 3-room apartments. In January, average rental rate of apartment throughout the city has decreased by 12.1% and made up 5.0 per month. AOP of trade premises increased by 4.9 %. AOP of office premises on sale was equal to 801 Average offer rental rate of office premises throughout the city in January decreased by 0.1% down to 8.3 In January, average price of a private houses in Tashkent city was equal to USD per private house. 1

2 NEWS ON REAL ESTATE MARKET According to the Program for individual housing construction on typical projects in rural areas, about 8510 houses will be built this year, the growth of which made 15% compared to The President of Uzbekistan, in concordance with his resolution from January, 14 th, approved the parameters of the Program for individual housing construction on typical projects in rural areas in 2012 (the document is available on Lex.uz) rural houses to be built in 2012 According to the document, the construction of 8510 houses on a "turnkey" basis is expected this year. The project will be implemented in 276 residential areas with a total area of 1371 hectares. As the President said in his speech at the Government session on January 19 th, the residential area of rural houses, planned for construction, will make up over 1,2 mln square meters. The most of houses will be built in Tashkent region (23 residential communities). It is planned to build 900 houses in Samarkand region (19), Kashkadarya region (22), Andijon region (27), Ferghana region (28), Surkhandarya region- 680 (21), Khorezm region (20), Bukhara region (36), Namangan region- 560 (20), Navoi region (20), in Karakalpakstan (22), Jizzakh region (14) and Syrdarya region (4). About 26 rural medical posts, 10 comprehensive schools, 80 guzars, 109 shopping centers, 42 market places, 90 bakeries, 47 public service facilities and 33 mini-banks will be functioned at the field of complex development. The residential communities will be supplied with 425,46 km of water networks, 259,85 km of electric lines, 374,73 km of gas networks and 306,13 km of auto roads. As the President noted, it is planned to allocate about 810 bln. UZS of investments for these purposes during the year. In general, it is planned to direct the funds in the volume of about 2,2 bln. USD for the implementation of the Program for housing construction development in rural areas for the period up to The Asian Development Bank has participated in the program, which intends to invest 500 mln USD in the construction of rural housing in Uzbekistan, including 160 mln USD in In 2011, about 7400 individual residential houses were constructed according to typical projects in Uzbekistan, with residential area of 1,1 mln square meters. Over 576 bln. UZS of investments were directed for these purposes. Since the beginning of implementation of the Program for individual housing construction in rural areas, i.e. over the past two years, over 15 thousand of rural families received superior 1 houses

3 Summary of AVEX residential real estate indices Name of the index AVEX - Res AVEX - ResRent AVEX - Office AVEX - OfficeRent AVEX residential real estate indices in January, Type Unit of measurement Price index of residential real estate Rental price index of residential real estate Price index of office premises Rental price index of office premises Value of the index, December 2011 Value of the index, January 2012 Change, (%) ,6 per month 5,7 5,0-12, ,9 per month 8,3 8,3-0,1 SECONDARY RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE Analysts of AC «Avesta Research» reviewed 3442 secondary residential real estate in January. According to the analysis of experts, AVEX-Res index, a proxy of average offered price adjusted for the average discount, was equal to 454 USD in January, about 2,6% less than in the previous month. price, $/sq.m AVEX-Res index dynamics Diagram number of

4 The leader by the number of traditionally was Mirzo-Ulugbek district - 26,5% of the total number of. As for the allocation of in other districts, the most of them was the share of Sergeli (14,7%) and Chilanzar districts (11,4%). 30,0% 25,0% Distribution of reviewed by district 26,5% Diagram 2 20,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% 2,6% 0,0% 9,2% 14,7% 5,3% 10,6% 11,4% 4,0% 10,8% 5,0% The average offer price (AOP) of residential real estate in January decreased by 14 USD compared to the previous month, and made up 547 The most number of reviewed in January were in the price range of This price range plays a dominant role both in the average offer price and AVEX-Res index of Tashkent. Price distribution of in the secondary market of Tashkent city 2000 Diagram <200 >200<400 >400<600 >500<800 >800<1000 >1000 Residential real estate with AOP higher than was mainly observed in Mirzo-Ulugbek, Mirabad, Yakkasaray and Yunusabad districts. 4

5 Above city average prices were observed in Mirabad (671), Yakkasaray (672) and Yunusabad (601) districts. The lowest real estate prices were registered in Bektemir (360) district. Table 1 Offer price of residential real estate by district () Average price, Min. price, USD Max. price, USD per per Almazar Bektemir Mirabad Mirzo-Ulugbek Sergeli Uchtepa Khamza Chilanzar Shaykhontakhur Yunus-abad Yakkasaray Tashkent AOP decreased in most of the districts, except for Almazar (earlier Sabir Rakhimov) and Bektemir districts, where AOP increased insignificantly. AOP did not change in Sergeli and Shaykhontakhur districts. The most significant AOP increase in January was observed in Bektemir (13%) district. Below is the dynamics of average offer prices by districts of Tashkent for a year AOP dynamics in Bektemir, Almazar, Sergeli, Uchtepa, Khamza and Shaykhontakhur districts Bektemir Almazar Sergeli Uchtepa Khamza Shaykhontahur Tashkent Diagram 4 June'1 December'1 5

6 AOP dynamics in Mirzo-Ulugbek, Chilanzar, Mirbad, Yunus-Abad and Yakkasaray districts Diagram Mirzo-Ulugbek Chilanzar Mirabad Yunus-Abad Yakkasaray June'1 December'1 Tashkent Average area of an apartment offered for sale 68 The minimal area of apartment on sale 12 was observed in Mirzo-Ulugbek district. The most average area per district was observed in Mirabad and Khamza districts, being the leaders in this indicator. These figures reflect construction design in these districts and remain unchanged from month to month. Table 2 Area of apartments offered for sale in January, 2011 () Average area, sq. Min. area, Max. area, m. Almazar Bektemir Mirabad Mirzo-Ulugbek Sergeli Uchtepa Khamza Chilanzar Shaykhontakhur Yunus-abad Yakkasaray Tashkent An insignificant decrease of AOP was observed in all the Categories, regardless of the distance from the center. 6

7 AOP of residential real estate by territorial category of Tashkent city AOP in AOP in November, Category December, USD Change, % per А ,5% В ,9% С ,6% Table 3 The most price increase was observed in Category B of Almazar district (+11,5%). The most price increase was observed in Category A of Khamza district 15.9%. The most expensive apartments were registered in Category A (up to 5 km away from the center of Tashkent city) of Mirzo-Ulugbek, Yakkasaray and Mirabad districts. Changes in AOP of residential real estate by category and districts () Category November December Change, % Almazar В ,5% Almazar С ,5% Bektemir С ,9% Mirabad А ,4% Mirabad В ,1% Mirabad С ,7% Mirzo-Ulugbek А ,6% Mirzo-Ulugbek В ,1% Mirzo-Ulugbek С ,3% Sergeli С ,4% Uchtepa С ,2% Khamza А ,3% Khamza В ,2% Khamza С ,1% Chilanzar В ,3% Chilanzar С ,7% Shaykhontakhur В ,6% Shaykhontakhur С ,5% Shaykhontakhur А ,7% Yunus-Abad В ,8% Yunus-Abad С ,1% Yunus-Abad А ,0% Yakkasaray В ,6% Yakkasaray С ,2% Table 4 7

8 Diagram June'1 Dynamics of AOP of residential real estate from January, 2011 to January, 2012 December'1 7,0% 4,0% 1,0% -2,0% -5,0% 2,1% 1,3% 2,1% 1,7% 4,0% 4,3% 6,6% 2,5% 2,9% 1,9% June'1 0,1% 1,4% 2,6% December'1 AOP in January, 2011 is 4,1% higher than its level observed in January, The lowest price over the past 12 months was recorded in May 478 The highest price over the past 12 months was recorded in October, Residential real estate by construction material In January, AOP of apartments in panel houses was equal to 492 and in brick houses 642 Table 5 Apartment prices by construction material () Material Average price, Min. price, USD per Max. price, USD per Brick Panel AOP of apartments in brick and panel houses decreased by 2,1% and 1,4%, respectively. Table 6 Changes in AOP of apartments by construction material () Материал December January Change Brick ,1% Panel ,4% The below table depicts prices of apartments by construction material and location category. 8

9 Diagram 8 Prices based on category of apartments and construction material () Panel Brick С В А AOP of apartments in brick houses increased under all the Categories. The most increase in AOP of apartments was observed in apartments in brick houses located up to 5-10 km away from the center of Tashkent city. Changes in AOP of apartments in BRICK houses based on category () Category December 2011 January 2012 Change А ,8% В ,6% С ,5% Table 7 AOP of apartments in panel houses increased under all the Categories, except for Category B. The most increase was observed in case of apartments located up to 5 km away from the center of the city. Changes in AOP of apartments in PANEL houses based on category () Category December 2011 January 2012 Change А ,1% В ,5% С ,2% Table 8 As depicted in the below diagram and table, the most expensive in January were observed for apartments in brick houses located in Mirabad, Yakkasaray and Yunusabad districts. 9

10 AOP based on construction material and district () Diagram Brick Panel Almazar Bektemir Mirabad Mirzo Ulugbek Sergeli Uchtepa Khamza Chilanzar Shaykhontahur Yunus Abad Yakkasaray Tashkent The below table displays prices by district based on construction material. AOP based on construction material and district () Brick Panel Almazar Bektemir Mirabad Mirzo-Ulugbek Sergeli Uchtepa Khamza Chilanzar Shaykhontakhur Yunus-abad Yakkasaray Tashkent Table 9 The current AOP of apartments in brick houses is 6.5% above the level observed in January, 2010, and in panel houses 6.0% higher the prices compared to October, The lowest AOP in brick houses was observed in May, 2011 (555 ) and in panel houses also in May, 2011 (428 ). The highest AOP in panel houses was observed in October, 2011 (516 ) and in brick houses in December, 2011 (656 ). 10

11 Dynamics of AOP of apartments in brick and panel houses from January, 2011 to January, 2012 Brick Panel June'11 December'1 10,0% 8,0% 6,0% 4,0% 2,0% 0,0% -2,0% -4,0% -6,0% -8,0% -10,0% June'11 Diagram December'1 Residential real estate by number of rooms The bulk of analyzed in January, as in the previous months, were represented by doubleroom and 3-room apartment, representing the major portion of the apartments of Tashkent city. AOP of double-room apartments decreased by 1.6%, and of 3-room - by 2.4%. In January, the average AOP of double-room apartment was equal to 524 and 3-room apartment rooms Table 10 AOP of apartments in Tashkent city by number of rooms () Average price, Min. price, Max. price, USD per The next table shows prices by category based on the distance from the center of the city and number of rooms. As it can be seen from the table, the most expensive apartments are those with 3- and 5-rooms, located within 5 km from the center of the city. The number of with 6- rooms is traditionally low, resulting in unreliable AOP comparison for such apartments. 11

12 AOP of apartments by category and number of rooms () rooms A B C Table 11 AOP of apartments by number of rooms decreased under all the Categories, regardless of the number of rooms. Changes in AOP of apartments by the number of rooms () rooms November December Change, % ,7% ,6% ,4% ,1% ,9% ,7% Table 12 APARTMENT RENTALS In January, Yakkasaray (5.7 per month) and Yunus-abad (5.6 USD) districts were the most expensive ones to rent an apartment. Average rental rate throughout the city has decreased by 12.1% and made up 5.0 per month in January. Table 13 Main indicators of rental rates of apartments by district ( per month) Average rental rate, USD per sq. m. per month Min. rental rate, per month Max. rental rate, per month Almazar 4 3,0 2 4 Mirabad 48 5, Mirzo-Ulugbek 73 5, Sergeli 18 2,4 1 5 Uchtepa 24 3,8 2 5 Khamza 26 4, Chilanzar 41 4,3 2 9 Shaykhontakhur 21 4,8 3 8 Yunus-abad 50 5, Yakkasaray 39 5, Tashkent 344 5, Average size of apartments offered for rent was 69 12

13 Table 14 Size of apartments offered for rent based on district () Average size, sq. Min. size, Max. size, m. Almazar Mirabad Mirzo-Ulugbek Sergeli Uchtepa Khamza Chilanzar Shaykhontakhur Yunus-abad Yakkasaray Tashkent The most change in average rental prices was observed in Sergeli district (-51%). Average rental rates of apartments decreased in all the districts of the city, except Uchtepa, Shaykhontakhur, Yunus-abad and Yakkasaray districts. Changes in average rental rates of apartments by district ( per month) Table 15 December,2011 January,2012 Change Almazar 3,8 3,0-20% Mirabad 6,9 5,9-16% Mirzo-Ulugbek 6,2 5,6-10% Sergeli 5,0 2,4-51% Uchtepa 3,3 3,8 14% Khamza 4,7 4,5-5% Chilanzar 4,8 4,3-11% Shaykhontakhur 4,5 4,8 5% Yunus-abad 5,1 5,6 11% Yakkasaray 5,7 5,7 1% Tashkent 5,7 5,0-12% Apartment rental rates have decreased under all the Categories by distance from the center of the city Changes in average rental rates of apartments by category of location ( per month) Category December,2011 January,2012 Change Table 16 А 7,1 6,2-12,0% В 5,5 5,2-5,6% С 3,9 3,7-3,6% 4- and 5-room apartments were the most expensive ones to rent. The majority of to rent apartments involved double -room apartments. 13

14 Table 17 Apartment rental rates by number of rooms ( per month) rooms Average rental rate, USD per sq. m. per month Min. rental rate, per month Max. rental rate, per month , , , , , ,0 7 9 Apartment rental by construction material AOP rental rates of apartments in brick houses were equal to 5.6, and in panel houses 4.5 Average offer rental rates based on construction materials () Table 18 rooms Brick Panel 1 5,0 4,6 2 5,6 4,3 3 5,8 4,6 4 5,3 5,1 5 7,2 2,6 6 8,0 - Ташкент 5,6 4,5 In January, average rental rate in brick houses decreased by 11% compared to the previous month, in panel houses 12%. Dynamics of average rental rate of apartments in Tashkent city over the last 12 month are presented in the below diagram. Diagram Changes in rental prices of apartments in Tashkent city 6,5 6,0 5,5 5,0 4,5 4,0 June'11 Septemer'11 December'11 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 7,1% 6,6% 9,9% 9,4% 3,1% 10,0% 6,7% 15,2% 30,5% 16,3% 6,0% 12,1% 17,7% June'11 Septemer'11 December'11 14

15 MARKET OF LAND LOTS The average price per 100 of land without any construction or with houses in poor state was equal to USD per 100 sq. m, down by 8.5%. Table 19 Key indicators of land lot prices by district (USD per 100 ) Average price per 100 of land, USD Min. price per 100 of land, USD Max. price per 100 of land, USD Almazar Bektemir Mirabad Mirzo-Ulugbek Sergeli Uchtepa Khamza Chilanzar Shaykhontakhur Yunus-abad Yakkasaray Tashkent Average size of land lots offered for sale throughout Tashkent city was 1 100, the smallest one 150, and the largest one The bulk of the were registered in Mirzo-Ulugbek and Yunus-abad district. Table 20 Size of land lots by district (in 100 ) Average size, Min. size, Max. size, Almazar Bektemir Mirabad Mirzo-Ulugbek ,6 Sergeli Uchtepa 2 5 4,6 6 Khamza 7 4 1,5 7,2 Chilanzar Shaykhontakhur ,5 25 Yunus-abad ,5 80 Yakkasaray Tashkent ,5 200 Prices highly vary from land lot to another, and one of the most affecting factors is the purpose of use. As the number of lots on sale is limited, average price can change significantly from month to month. AOP of land lots in January, 2012 is 43,5% more than in January,

16 Diagram Offer prices of land lots from October, 2011 till January, 2012 (USD per 100 ) 120,0% 90,0% 102,0% June'11 December'11 60,0% 30,0% 0,0% 30,0% 60,0% 37,0% 54,3% 13,9% 17,6% 0,4% 11,9% 11,1% 4,1% 18,8% 11,5% 8,5% 8,2% June'11 December'11 16

17 COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET Average offer prices of commercial real estate increased under all the Categories. AOP of production premises and storage increased by 14.6% up to 704 AOP of offices and trade premises increased by 4.9 % and 23.4%, respectively. AOP of trade premises was equal to 1026 AOP of office premises was equal to 801 Offer prices of commercial real estate in Tashkent city in January, 2012 () Type of commercial real estate Average price, Min. price, USD per Max. price, USD per Storage and production premises Office premises Trade premises Table 21 Changes in average prices of commercial real estate in December January, 2012 () Type of commercial real estate December January 2012 Storage and production premises Office premises Trade premises Change, % 14,6% 4,9% 23,4% Table 22 Average, minimum and maximum area indicators of commercial real estate are presented in the following table. Table 23 Size indicators of commercial real estate in Tashkent city () Type of commercial real estate Average size, Min. size, Max. size, Storage and production premises Office premises Trade premises Average price dynamics of commercial real estate is provided in the below diagram. 17

18 Diagram month dynamics of average prices of commercial real estate () June'11 December'11 Production premises Trade Premises Office premises OFFICE PREMISES Average offer price throughout Tashkent city was equal to 801 Most of the were registered in Mirabad district. The most expensive premises are offered in Yunus-abad district. Table 24 Offer prices of office premises () Average price, Min. price, USD per Max. price, USD per Mirabad Mirzo-Ulugbek Sergeli Khamza Chilanzar Shaykhontahur Yunus-Abad Yakkasaray Тashkent Average size of office premises offered for sale in the current month was 276 The smallest area was equal to 53, the largest

19 Table 25 Size indicators of office premises in January, 2012 () Average price, Min. price, USD Max. price, USD per per Mirabad Mirzo-Ulugbek Sergeli Khamza Chilanzar Shaykhontahur Yunus-Abad Yakkasaray Тashkent ,5 9,5 8,5 7,5 6,5 Diagram Monthly changes in average prices of office premises () 60% 50% 47% 40% 30% 16% 20% 11%5% 10% 3% 1% 10% 5% 4% 10% 0% 20% 15% 30% 25% 19% June'11 December'11 June'11 December'11 RENTAL OF OFFICE PREMISES Average offer rental rate of office premises throughout the city in January decreased by 0.1% down to 8.3 Table 26 Key price indicators of office premises rentals ( per month) Average rental rate, USD per sq. m. per month Max. rental rate, per month Min. rental rate, per month Mirabad 7 8,2 6,0 10,0 Mirzo-Ulugbek 5 7,2 5,0 10,7 Khamza 1 4,0 4,0 4,0 Chilanzar 3 6,0 5,6 6,7 Shaykhontahur 2 4,4 3,0 5,7 Yunus-Abad 11 8,2 4,6 12,5 Yakkasaray 5 13,2 10,0 16,7 Tashkent 34 8,3 3,0 16,7 Most of the office premises offered for rent were located in Mirabad and Yunus-abad districts. Average size of office premises offered for rent in January was equal to

20 Table 27 Key size indicators of office premises rentals () Average size, sq. m. Min. size, Max. size, Mirabad Mirzo-Ulugbek Khamza Chilanzar Shaykhontahur Yunus-Abad Yakkasaray Tashkent Below are price dynamics in the recent year. In January, 2012 average rental rate of office premises decreased by 2.9% compared to January, Diagram Monthly changes in average rental rates of office premises () 60% 50% 47% 40% 30% 16% 20% 11%5% 10% 3% 1% 10% 5% 4% 10% 0% 20% 15% 30% 25% 19% June'11 December'11 June'11 December'11 20

21 MARKET OF PRIVATE HOUSES In January, average price of a private house in Tashkent city was equal to USD, that actually without change in price compared to the previous month. The most expensive were registered in Mirzo-Ulugbek district. The bulk of were also registered in Mirzo-Ulugbek district. Table 28 Main price indicators of private houses by district (USD) Average price, Min. price, USD Max. price, USD per per Almazar Bektemir Mirabad Mirzo-Ulugbek Sergeli Uchtepa Khamza Chilanzar Shaykhontakhur Yunusabad Yakkasaray Tashkent The next table provides short descriptive data of private houses sold in Tashkent city by district. Description of private houses in Tashkent city by district Table 29 Average price, Average number of rooms Average size of a land lot, 100 Almazar Bektemir Mirabad Mirzo-Ulugbek Sergeli Uchtepa Khamza Chilanzar Shaykhontakhur Yunusabad Yakkasaray Tashkent

22 PRIVATE HOUSE RENTALS In January, average rental rate per private house in Tashkent city was equal to USD per month, practically unchanged compared to the previous month. The bulk of were registered in Mirzo-Ulugbek district. Table 30 General indicators of rental prices of private houses by district (USD per month) Average rental Min. rental rate, Max. rental rate, rate, USD per USD per month USD per month month Almazar Mirobad Mirzo-Ulugbek Khamza Yunus-Abad Yakkasaray Tashkent Average size of a private house offered for rent 500, on average they have 5 rooms. rooms and 100 in a private house, offered for rent Table 31 Average number of rooms Average size of the land lot Almazar Mirobad Mirzo-Ulugbek Khamza Yunus-Abad Yakkasaray Tashkent

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