Key Market Indicators

Transcription

1 Key Market Indicators Q3 Q3 Q Total stock, million sq m Class A Class B Completions, thousand sq m Net absorption, thousand sq m Vacancy rate, % Class А Class В Weighted average rental rate, Class A RUB/sq m/month 1,300 1,390 1,600 Weighted average rental rate, Class B RUB/sq m/month ,040 asking rental rate per month, including OPEX, excluding VAT In Q3 2018, the total volume in the office real estate market has increased by 24,500 sq m of quality class A and B space, more than 20% of which was in speculative projects. The office real estate market increased by two new projects from well-known developers in the residential market. These are the Riverside business center at 3 Ushakovskaya Emb, which will be used for Setl City s own needs; and two office buildings within MFC Grani at 24B Zelenina St, which the developer is offering mostly for sale. In the first nine months of this year, only 33,800 sq m of space entered the high-quality office market, which is 60% less than the volume of new construction in the same period last year. More than 70% of the new space is represented by offices built for a company s own needs. Business Centre District / Address Class Function GLA, sq m Evrika Moskovskiy / 9 Koli Tomchaka St, Bldg Y B For own needs 7,000 BC on the embankment of the Smolenka River Vasileostrovskiy / 25 Smolenka River Emb, Bldg A B For own needs 2,250 Riverside (in RC Riverside) Primorskiy / 3 Ushakovskaya Emb A For own needs 16,300 New construction in the office real estate market from the beginning of GRANI (in MFC GRANI) Petrogradskiy / 24 B. Zelenina St, Bldg А B For sale / Lease 8,200 Office Market. St. Petersburg. Q Results 1

2 Net absorption in Q reached the highest rate in the last year and amounted 34,800 sq m, while over the nine month period the rate amounted 78,200 sq m, with 70% of absorbed space being in Class A business centers. It is also worth noting that a significant part of the volume for this year is made up of projects that entered the market already occupied, in particular projects for own needs. In anticipation of the commissioning of the Lakhta Center, the largest and most expensive project for own needs in the entire history of the office real estate market, Gazprom Group once again took a leading position in the volume of Q deals, returning to the top three in the first nine months. Deal structure in the office real estate market in Q Gazprom subdivision IT products & services Professional services Construction/Development Retail (inc. Wholesalers) Manufacturing Banking, insurance and investment Life Sciences Deal structure in the office real estate market over the nine month period IT products & services Professional services Gazprom subdivision Construction/Development Manufacturing Public Sector Banking, insurance and investment Retail (inc. Wholesalers) Energy/Industrial Life Sciences Business Centre, Address District Class Area leased «Kollegiya», 74 Moyki River Emb Admiralteyskiy A 4,900 «Kollegiya», 74 Moyki River Emb Admiralteyskiy A 4,500 Alia Tempora, 3 Mayakovskogo St Centralny B 770 «Nevskaya Ratusha», 11 Degtyarny Ln Centralny A 1,000* Deals involving PJSC Gazprom, which returned the company to the top three by demand over the nine-month period «Nevskaya Ratusha», 11 Degtyarny Ln Centralny А 2,900 AURA, 85 Lahtinskiy Ave Primorskiy A 3,200 *Expert opinion Office Market. St.Petersburg. Q Results 2

3 It should be mentioned that for the last five years, four segments have invariably lead in the structure of deals in the office real estate market. With a different share of leased space from year to year, Gazprom Group, IT companies and development and professional services companies have been occupying the first four places in the volume of demand. The results of the first nine months of this year have strengthened this trend. The total volume of deals for the three quarters was 95,200 sq m, which is similar to the same figure for last year The volume of deals of the segments forming the top four in the office real estate market for the fifth year in a row 0 Gazprom subdivision IT products & services Construction/Development Professional services This year, demand was formed as by small office blocks ( sq m) rented mainly by companies providing professional services in consulting and communications in new class B business, and by large areas (2,000 5,000 sq m) in reconstructed Class A business centres, which are traditionally occupied by the segment leaders Gazprom, IT and development companies. Office blocks that formed demand in 2018 (by quantity in descending order in the total volume of deals) ,000-5, ,000 1,000-2, <100 >5,000 The Petrogradskiy district ranks first in the volume of demand for the second quarter in a row and ranked among the top three most popular areas of the current year. According to the results of the first three quarters, the historical centre of St. Petersburg forms 65% of the total volume of rent deals. Demand structure for the first nine months by districts share in sq m Petrogradskiy Centralny Admiralteiskiy Primorskiy Frunzenskiy Moskovskiy Nevskiy Vasileostrovskiy Krasnogvardeiskiy Vyborgskiy Kirovskiy Office Market. St.Petersburg. Q Results 3

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5 rub/sq m/month At the end of Q3 2018, the vacancy rate in both classes remained at the same level as at the end of the first half-year, despite the fact that in several areas with a fairly high volume of quality office space (more than 250,000 sq m) the rate showed multidirectional movement. Thus, the minimal rate in Class B in the Moskovskiy district increased by 2 p.p., and increase of 4%, while in Andmiralteyskiy it increased by 3 p.p. up 8%. In both cases, the change was due to large tenants changing their presence. Meanwhile in the Centralny district the vacancy in class А decreased by 2 p.p. or 10% for the same reasons. 25% 20% 15% 10% 9,0% Vacancy rate range in quality business centers by class 5% 0% 6,0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 IV Q1 Q2 Q Class A Class B In the first nine months, rates for vacant space in high-quality Class A business centres increased by 13%, while in class B the increase in the vacancies for the year was 6%. This rate growth occurred mainly due to increased rates in business centres in the historic city centre: Admiralteyskiy, Petrogradskiy and Centralny districts Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q Rates in high-quality business centers, Classes A and B Class A Class B Up to the end of this year, we expect the absence of speculative input and a decrease in vacancies in both classes of not less than 1.5%. The growth in rental rates will continue the upward trend, while central areas will set higher rate growth due to the reduced quality supply and the shortage of large blocks. Commissioning of the tallest building in Europe in Q will increase the existing net absorption two and a half fold, and will make Gazprom s share in the annual rate the highest in the last ten years. The emerging trend this year, amid the growth of projects for own needs, is the purchase of offices by end users. Not only the decline in speculative development, but also the presence of interesting projects for sale by owners, particularly in the historic part of the city, is increasing the interest of companies in similar deals in the office market. Office Market. St.Petersburg. Q Results 5

6 FOR MORE INFORMATION CORPORATE SOLUTIONS & OFFICE AGENCY DEPARTMENTS Vera Zimenkova Regional Director CORPORATE SOLUTIONS & OFFICE AGENCY DEPARTMENTS Igor Temnyshev Director ANALYTICAL DEPARTMENT Veronika Lezhneva Director Ludmila Zaichenko Associate Director MARKETING & PR DEPARTMENT Anna Sabinina Director St. Petersburg 3 Volynsky Lane BC Senator Copyright 2018 Colliers International This information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.