Report the warehouse market in Q1 2018
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- Frederick Morris
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1 Report the warehouse market in Q1 218 A record amount of warehouse space is under construction in Poland. Gross demand 1.16 mln The Polish warehouse market remains in very good shape. The demand side saw a record-breaking start of the year for the third time in a row. From January to the end of March 218, 1.16 million of modern warehouse space was leased, 2% more than in Q Developers completed 314,, but almost 2 million are under construction. Developers unwillingness to build speculative investments resulted in a low vacancy rate, which at the end of March this year was 4.2%. Net demand 812, Under construction 1.98 mln New supply 314, Vacancy* 4.2% Rents Compared to the Q1 217 *Compared to the Q4 217 Axi Immo Group Sp. z o.o. 18 Twarda St. -15 Warsaw oice@axiimmo.com
2 Demand Y et another irst-quarter record was broken this year with 1.16 million of modern warehouse Worth noting is the further development of new warehouse locations in and Western space being leased, of which new lease agreements and expansions accounted for more than 7%. This result is 2% higher compared to the same period last year. In just 3 years, demand in the irst quarter has grown by 86%. Poland. Improved infrastructure, in particular the completion of sections of the S8 and S7 expressways, combined with a relatively greater availability of staf has created higher interest among investors in new locations in the Warmia-Masuria and Podlasie provinces. The best From January to the end of March this year most new lease agreements were signed in, where 236, were leased, of which new lease agreements examples are Zalando s 13, investment being built near Olsztynek in Warmia-Masuria and Panattoni park in Białystok. accounted for nearly 94%. Warsaw came second with over 2,, followed by Wrocław with 172,. In, Leroy Merlin s transaction for 124, sq m was the main reason for the high result. Wrocław and Poznań had the largest share of lease extensions. Demand is dominated by logistics companies (32%), followed by retail chains (21%) and e-commerce (19%). These are the three main drivers of demand, the increase in which is directly related to high levels of consumption in Poland and Europe as well as changes in sales models and new supply chain organisation. Demand in regions in Q Warsaw Suburbs Warsaw Inner City Torun/Bydgoszcz Others New agreements Renewals 2
3 The biggest lease transactions in Q1 218 Tenant Property Region Type of contract Leased space () Leroy Merlin BTS Panattoni New deal 124, Zalando BTS Hillwood New deal 121, Arvato Panattoni Park Stryków III New deal 43, Supply T he total supply of modern warehouse space at the end of the irst quarter 218 was nearly 13.9 million ), followed by the Warsaw area (4, ) and, and (32, ; by the end of 218 it will exceed 15 million. each). From January to the end of March this year, only 314, sqm were completed, 34% fewer than in the same period last year, which was mainly due to breaks in construction because of low winter temperatures. The largest amount of space was completed in (over 15, However, an impressive 1.98 million sqm are under construction. This is the efect of high demand from the last two quarters, including the signing of contracts for over 1, of BTS investments for the e-commerce Space under construction at the end of Q Projects under construction percentage share in the regions by the end of Q Warsaw 3 2 6% 2% 1%1% 3% 5% 23% 1 6% 9% 1% 19% Warsaw Kielce Opole Kielce Opole 13% 3
4 and retail sectors. Currently, is the largest construction site in the country, where 462, are being built. This is followed by (386, ) and Warsaw (258, ). With nearly 2 million, speculative space makes up 25%. In most cases, though, investments that were already 3-4% leased before construction have space not secured by rental agreements. However, their willingness to take risk with an entirely speculative projects (1%) is limited on both main markets and new locations. Stock and vacanacy rate at the end of Q % 3 6% 2 4% 1 2% % Warsaw Inner City Warsaw Suburbs Torun/Bydgoszcz Existing space () Vacancy rates (%) Vacancy rates Rents T he average vacancy rate at the end of March this year dropped to 4.2%; however, in some large D ue to higher investment costs, rental rates are maintaining their upward trend in most locations. markets it increased. There is low availability or a lack of ready space in new locations and young markets, where there is no speculative development and the number of new investments is limited. The highest vacancy rates are in the Poznań region (7.5%) and Kraków (7.3%). A slight increase can be observed in existing facilities from which tenants have relocated to newly built warehouses. Despite the increase in headline rents, developers are still ofering the lowest efective rates in the Warsaw area starts from EUR 1.9/. An upward trend is clearly visible in Wrocław and, while rents are stable in. Despite the increase in rental rates in the warehouse sector in Poland, compared to Germany and other western Europe markets, they remain competitive. 4
5 Efective rents in regions (EUR//month) in Q Warsaw Inner City Warszawa Suburbs Bydgoszcz and Torun Efective rents (EUR/) Forecasts T he market is in peak condition and excellent economic indicators mean that the forecasts for The low availability of staf in the main logistics hubs means that large e-commerce and production investments the warehouse market for the remainder of the year are optimistic. If demand indicators and the pace of new investment remain at similar levels, we can expect last year s record of 3 million leased over 12 months to be broken. will go to the eastern part of the country, where staf availability is higher, and infrastructure is getting better. Large markets will continue to develop due to their scale and the number of businesses already present in those regions. This year will also see greater activity among developers in the Small Business Unit warehouse segment. This comes as a response to demand from tenants who are increasing eiciency and shortening to a minimum delivery times to Warehouse products are very popular with investment funds, which is further strengthening developers appetite for starting new investments. The highest returns on investment can be achieved on warehouse real estate. the end customer. 5
6 Contact Anna Głowacz Head of Industrial - Leasing Agency anna.glowacz@axiimmo.com Monika Rykowska PR & Marketing Director monika.rykowska@axiimmo.com Barbara Szymańska-Wieczorek Industrial & Research Coordinator b.szymanska-wieczorek@axiimmo.com Copyright 218 AXI IMMO. All rights reserved. The information contained in this document is proprietary to AXI IMMO and shall be used solely for the purposes of evaluating this proposal. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of AXI IMMO. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy thereof. We would like to be told of any errors in order to correct them. Axi Immo Group Sp. z o.o. 18 Twarda St. -15 Warsaw oice@axiimmo.com
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