FOURTH QUARTER 2016 WASHINGTON, DC METRO RETAIL OUTLOOK

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1 FOURTH QUARTER 2016 WASHINGTON, DC METRO RETAIL OUTLOOK sponsored by Center for Real Estate Entrepreneurship 1

2 WASHINGTON AREA ECONOMY SNAPSHOT JOB GROWTH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE new jobs during 12 months at November 2016, down 65,500 November % from 4.1% at November 2015 INSIDE THIS ISSUE Economy & Outlook...3 Retail Market Conditions...5 AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD INCOME $121,439 in 2016, 57.7% higher than the US average PROJECTED JOB GROWTH AN AVERAGE OF 43,600 per year in New Development...7 Investment Sales...8 The Bottom Line...9 About Delta Associates...10 WASHINGTON AREA RETAIL MARKET SNAPSHOT About George Mason University CREE ,900 retail jobs were added during the 12 months ending November 2016 on a net basis. Neighborhood and community shopping center effective rents rose 1.4% in Northern Virginia since 4th quarter 2015, to $26.10/SF. In Suburban Maryland, effective rents in the same types of centers fell by 0.3%, to $23.29/SF. Vacancy rates for neighborhood and community shopping centers in Northern Virginia and Suburban Maryland are 5.2% and 8.0%, respectively, up 10 basis points since 4th quarter 2015 in Northern Virginia and down 20 basis points in Suburban Maryland. 2

3 ECONOMY & OUTLOOK The Washington area economy maintained its positive momentum in the 4th quarter of During the 12 months ending November 2016, the region added 65,500 new jobs. The rate of job growth in the metro area finally surpassed that of the entire nation this year, after trailing for years. The Professional/Business Services sector remained the largest source of new jobs in the Washington metro area in the 4th quarter, followed by the Government, Education and Health Services, Leisure/Hospitality, and Retail Trade sectors. Only Information and Financial Activities had net job losses over the 12-month period. The unemployment rate in the Washington metro area stood at 3.7% as of November 2016, constituting a moderate increase off its low of 3.5% as of May Still, this is a 40 basis point decline from the metro area s unemployment rate at November The region s unemployment rate is the now fourth lowest among its peer metropolitan areas, trailing only Denver, Boston, and San Francisco, and is well below the national average of 4.6%. The Washington metro area remains well-positioned for economic growth in the period ahead. This growth will continue to be driven by the private sector, as Federal employment and procurement have both been stagnant over the past several years. By 2020, we expect that the Federal government s contribution to Washington s Gross Regional Product will decrease to approximately 27%, down from the current level of 37%. Retail sector employment growth in the Washington metro area was strong during the 12 months ending November 2016, with a net gain of 6,900 jobs during the period. This was a 2.4% increase since November 2015, while retail employment grew 1.5% nationally over the same period. PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Selected Large Metro Areas 12 Months Ending November 2016 THOUSANDS OF NEW PAYROLL JOBS Thousands Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; January LA Basin NY DFW SF Bay Atl Was South FL Phx Denver Bos Chi RETAIL PAYROLL JOBS WASHINGTON METRO AREA YEAR RETAIL EMPLOYMENT CHANGE , ,800-11, ,200-7, ,100 5, ,800 4, ,400 2, ,800 3, ,800 4, ,100 3, ,000 6,900 *Employment total at November of each year; change reflects the 12 month period ending each November. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; January

4 AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD INCOME Washington Metro Area $80,600 U.S. $56,600 Washington Metro Area $121,439 U.S. $77, (Actual) 2016 (Actual) Average household income in the Washington metro area grew by 51% from 2000 to 2016, compared to just 36% nationally, and it currently exceeds the national average by 58%. By 2021, the Washington metro area s average household income is projected to rise another 8%, compared to an increase of 9% nationally. The elevated household income in the Washington area yields greater discretionary spending and supports demand for retail goods and space. The Washington metro economy continues to signal positive growth in the period ahead. For years, the region s economic recovery was held back by sequestration, shutdowns, and other harmful effects of Federal budget instability. During this period, the region lost significant ground to its peer metro areas. Now that the Federal government has put budget-related turbulence to rest at least for the time being economic growth in the region has gained real traction. Job growth in particular has been strong, especially in high-paying sectors. We predict that 59,800 new jobs will be created in the region by the end of 2016, with the pace of annual job growth slowly declining in subsequent years. Overall, we expect annual job growth in the metro area to average 43,600 over the next five years. PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Washington Metro Area THOUSANDS OF NEW PAYROLL JOBS (ANNUAL AVERAGE) '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16* *12 months ending in November Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; January CONSUMER SENTIMENT United States - Quarterly INDEX Year Annual Average = 43,400/Year 20-Year Average = 87.1 Washington Metro Area $131,168 U.S. $84, (Projected) The Bloomberg/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment in the U.S. registered at 98.2 in December This reading is up from 92.6 in December 2015 and is not only above the long-term average, but it is in fact at its highest level since January 2004, when it was Source: University of Michigan, Delta Associates; January Source: ESRI, Delta Associates; January,

5 RETAIL MARKET CONDITIONS WASHINGTON, DC METRO RETAIL OUTLOOK Q The inventory of existing neighborhood and community shopping centers totals 73.9 million SF in the Washington metro area s suburbs as of 4th quarter Northern Virginia has 40.3 million SF of space in these centers, and Suburban Maryland has 33.6 million SF. Northern Virginia leads the way at 13.9 SF per capita in its neighborhood and community centers, while Suburban Maryland has 13.6 SF per capita. For the Washington metro area as a whole, the average is 13.8 SF per capita of neighborhood/community shopping center space. There is more than 849,000 SF of shopping center space under construction across all shopping center types in Northern Virginia and more than 261,000 SF under construction in Suburban Maryland. Northern Virginia also has 3.2 million SF of planned shopping center space defined as space in centers where plans are drafted, permits and financing have been applied for, and ground breaking is all that remains to take place. This surpasses Suburban Maryland, which has just over 2.9 million SF of planned space. Suburban Maryland and Northern Virginia have 6.4 and 4.5 million SF, respectively, of proposed space for which no permits or financing have been applied. NEIGHBORHOOD/COMMUNITY CENTER SPACE PER CAPITA Washington Metro Area Suburbs 4 th Quarter 2016 NEIGHBORHOOD/COMMUNITY CENTER SF/CAPITA Northern Virginia Metro Average: Suburban Maryland RETAIL PIPELINE Washington Metro Area Suburbs All Shopping Center Types 4 th Quarter 2016 MILLIONS OF SQUARE FEET Northern Virginia Suburban Maryland Under Construction Planned Proposed Vacancy rates for Northern Virginia and Suburban Maryland at 4th quarter 2016 are 5.2% and 8.0%, respectively, up 10 basis points in Northern Virginia and down 20 basis points in Suburban Maryland since the 4th quarter of While vacancy rates in neighborhood and community centers remain elevated relative to their pre-recession averages across the metro area, they have been declining slowly since Despite the slow pace of vacancy improvement, the Washington metro area is one of the strongest performers nationally, as both Northern Virginia and Suburban Maryland are well below the national average of 10.0% vacancy, with Northern Virginia, in particular, rating behind only San Francisco as one of the strongest retail markets among its peers. Neighborhood/ community center vacancy rates were 34% higher in Suburban Maryland than in Northern Virginia at their respective cyclical lows in 2007, and the difference between the two substate areas has become more pronounced as Northern Virginia continues to recover more quickly. As of 4th quarter 2016, vacancy rates are 53% higher in Suburban Maryland than those in Northern Virginia. VACANCY RATES Washington Metro Area Suburbs Neighborhood/Community Centers SHOPPING CENTER VACANCY RATE 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Northern Virginia Suburban Maryland NEIGHBORHOOD/COMMUNITY CENTER VACANCY Select Metro Areas 4 th Quarter 2016 OVERALL VACANCY RATE 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 3.3% 5.2% National Rate = 10.0% 6.4% 6.4% 8.0% 10.1% 10.3% 10.8% 11.5% 11.5% SF N. VA LA Bos Sub MD Phx Den Hou Dal Atl Chi 12.4% 5

6 After climbing slowly since 2010, effective rents in neighborhood and community shopping centers have been stable over the past year, with effective rents rising 0.2% in Northern Virginia and falling 0.1% in Suburban Maryland during the 12 months ending December Average effective rents at 4th quarter 2016 are highest in Northern Virginia, at $26.10 per SF. In Suburban Maryland, average effective rents are $23.29 per SF. VACANCY RATES & ASKING RENTS NEIGHBORHOOD/COMMUNITY SHOPPING CENTERS WASHINGTON METRO AREA VACANCY RATES WASHINGTON METRO TOTAL 6.4% VACANCY RATE 12.5% 7.6% 6.8% 6.7% 6.3% 5.9% South Prince George s County Frederick County Gaithersburg/Rockville/Germantown North Prince William County North Prince George s County Loudoun County EFFECTIVE RENTS Washington Metro Area Suburbs Neighborhood/Community Centers 5.6% 4.4% Arlington/Alexandria Suburban Fairfax County $30 Northern Virginia Suburban Maryland 4.2% Bethesda/Silver Spring EFFECTIVE RENT PER SF $28 $26 $24 $22 $20 $18 $ ASKING RENTS WASHINGTON METRO TOTAL $22.38 ASKING RENT 3.8% $30.95 $26.91 $26.74 $25.74 Southeast Fairfax County Arlington/Alexandria Bethesda/Silver Spring Gaithersburg/Rockville/Germantown Suburban Fairfax County $25.07 $21.94 $17.45 $16.81 $16.54 $15.79 Southeast Fairfax County Loudoun County North Prince George s County South Prince George s County North Prince William County Frederick County 6

7 RETAIL TENANT COMINGS AND GOINGS Trader Joe s announced plans for a 15,000 square foot store in The Edison, a mixed-use building in the Union Market district. Expected to open in the second half of 2017, the store will be Trader Joe s third location in the District, as well as the first major grocery tenant in the fast-growing Union Market district. NEW DEVELOPMENT There are three notable grocery-anchored shopping centers, totaling 408,000 SF, under construction in the metro area at December 2016, and many more are in the planning stages. On October 6, Bowie Marketplace held a grand opening ceremony. Developed by Berman Enterprises, the Harris Teeter-anchored shopping center features a Chipotle Mexican Grill, Petco, and Chick-fil-A among its tenants. This is Harris Teeter s second location in Prince George s County. MOM s Organic Market revealed plans to expand their store at Hollywood Shopping Center in College Park. They will be expanding into space recently vacated by REI. Amazon s first brick-andmortar location in the region will be coming to College Park this spring. While this campus location will only serve as a pickup location for Amazon orders, the retailer has hired KLNB to help it search for Amazon bookstore locations in the region. Whole Foods announced that it has signed a lease to bring a 365 by Whole Foods to Fairfax, VA. This will be the first location in the D.C. region for the smaller-format, more affordable concept. There are additional grocery-anchored shopping centers in the planning stages that are not included in the adjacent table, some of which may deliver by However, given the long-term demand for retail goods in the Washington metro area, projects will deliver before and after that window. NOTABLE GROCERY-ANCHORED SHOPPING CENTERS UNDER CONSTRUCTION WASHINGTON METRO AREA JANUARY 2017 SHOPPING CENTER JURISDICTION RBA (SF) ANCHOR Commonwealth Centre Fairfax 173,000 Wegmans Aquia Town Center Stafford 160,000 Harris Teeter Apollo H Street District 75,000 Whole Foods Total: 408,000 Source: WBJ, Washington Post, Delta Associates; January

8 INVESTMENT SALES There were two notable investment sales of groceryanchored shopping centers during the 4th quarter of In November, MTH Management Corporation purchased the Aldi-anchored Stafford North Plaza in Stafford for $17.3 million ($214/SF) from NSP Limited Partnership. In December, Giant-anchored Cabin John Mall & Shopping Center in Potomac, MD was purchased by EDENS from Carl M. Freeman Associates for $165.0 million ($778/SF). Several other full and partial interests in grocery-anchored shopping centers were sold as parts of larger portfolio transactions during the 4th quarter. The dollar volume of investment sales of groceryanchored shopping centers through the 4th quarter of 2016 totaled $856.8 million ($355/SF), the highest total in the history of our data. All signs point to retail centers continuing to be a favored investment. While investor returns (income and appreciation) on retail properties fell in 2016, the Washington metro area is in line with the nationwide average. In addition, retail properties had the highest investment returns of any property type in the Washington metro area over the past year. These strong returns are reinforced by the results of our 21st annual year-end Market Maker Survey. Groceryanchored shopping centers were ranked as the third most desirable property type (trailing Class A Industrial/ Distribution space and Class B Suburban Garden apartments) with an investment worthiness index score of 6.8. Average cap rates for grocery-anchored shopping centers continued to trend downward, reaching a record low of 5.58% this year according to the survey. GROCERY-ANCHORED SHOPPING CENTER INVESTMENT SALES Washington Metro Area Suburbs SALES IN MILLIONS $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Northern Virginia Suburban Maryland Total: $401 M $429 M $85 M $79 M $178 M $454 M $476 M $644 M $323 M $710 M $856M Note: Excludes properties under contract. Source: Real Capital Analytics, graphic by Delta Associates; January TOTAL RETAIL INVESTOR RETURN Washington Metro vs. U.S TOTAL RETURN (INCOME + APPRECIATION) Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Source: NCREIF, Delta Associates, January * U.S. Washington Metro TOTAL INVESTOR RETURN, SELECTED PROPERTY TYPES Washington Metro vs. U.S TOTAL RETURN (INCOME + APPRECIATION) 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Apartment Industrial Office Retail WASHINGTON, DC METRO RETAIL OUTLOOK Q % U.S. Source: NCREIF, Delta Associates, January Washington Metro 8

9 THE BOTTOM LINE The Washington metro area has added more than 50,000 jobs on a year-over-year basis for 20 consecutive months and more than 60,000 jobs for the last 14 months. Unemployment remains low for a major metropolitan area and 90 basis points below the national rate of 4.6% as of November Additionally, the Washington metro area has been steadily adding a healthy number of jobs in the Professional/Business Services sector, where wages tend to be highest, a trend that is likely to increase demand for retail goods. 7,700 retail jobs were created on a net basis during the 12 months ending in November, and retail employment is projected to continue to grow in the region. We expect job growth in the metro area to remain steady in the range of 30,000 to 60,000 jobs per year for the period. The regional economy is performing better at the moment than it has since 2008, and the retail real estate market in the Washington metro area is showing consistent, if modest, improvement. Among neighborhood/community shopping centers, vacancy rates and rents have been stable over the past year. Tenants seeking space are interested in newer, Class A space, and the rise of the District as a destination for living, working, and shopping represents a unique opportunity for retailers in the region. We predict that the trend toward mixed-use projects in core submarkets with a more urban feel will continue for the foreseeable future, although recent plans for new centers and renovations of old ones in the outer suburbs indicate that developers expect lifestyle centers with a sense of place to thrive throughout the region. Prior to 2015, the Washington metro area s economy had yet to experience the sustained surge of above-average job growth that typically follows a recession. Now, entering 2016, the region has clearly turned a corner and is in midst of a solid expansion. Washington s private sector is strong and accounts for a growing share of the economy, making the region less vulnerable to future federal spending cuts. Retail real estate in the region avoided disaster during the recession and lackluster recovery, which is remarkable considering the dual pressures of slow job growth and booming online merchandising. Now that the demand side of the retail sales equation has improved, we expect improvements in retail real estate to continue apace. Although the economic outlook for the region remains positive, there is still some uncertainty related to the nation s political future and its potential impact on the role and the size of the federal government. Still, any major changes in the government would take time to plan and implement, so the status quo is likely to persist at least through During this period, the private sector will continue to show its strength, and the public sector will at least maintain its position. Therefore, overall economic growth in the Washington area over the next two years is expected to be robust. The Washington metro area has a wealth of assets a highly skilled workforce, access to international markets, high quality education, and vast cultural resources that will continue to give it a competitive advantage over other large metro areas in the long run. 9

10 ABOUT DELTA ASSOCIATES Delta Associates is a firm of experienced professionals serving the commercial real estate industry for over 35 years. The firm s main practice areas are: 1. Consulting, research, and advisory services for all property types throughout the United States (including market feasibility studies, highest and best use analysis, market entry strategies, asset performance enhancement studies, market due diligence, white papers on special topics, valuation analysis, and litigation support); and 2. Subscription publications for selected metro areas for the apartment, condominium, office, retail, and housing markets. For more information on Delta Associates, please visit DeltaAssociates.com. CONTACT US 1717 K Street, NW, Suite 1010 Washington, DC Info@DeltaAssociates.com Delta s Washington, DC Metro Retail Outlook team includes: David Parham, Editor and Senior Vice President Dylan Jones, Associate Dylan.Jones@DeltaAssociates.com Tarren McCray, Graphic Designer For information about Delta s consulting services, please contact David Weisel, CEO: David.Weisel@DeltaAssociates.com or For information about Delta s subscription publications, please contact Jennifer Glaser, Director of Operations: Jennifer.Glaser@DeltaAssociates.com or All rights reserved. You may neither copy nor disseminate this report. If quoted, proper attribution is required. Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau, Center for Real Estate and Urban Analysis at the George Washington University School of Business, Center for Regional Analysis, Delta Associates, ESRI, Real Capital Analytics, REIS, University of Michigan, Washington Business Journal, Washington Post, NCREIF. Although the information contained herein is based on sources which Delta Associates (DA) believes to be reliable, DA makes no representation or warranty that such information is accurate or complete. All prices, yields, analyses, computations, and opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Under no circumstances should any such information be considered representations or warranties of DA of any kind. Any such information may be based on assumptions which may or may not be accurate, and any such assumption may differ from actual results. This report should not be considered investment advice. 10

11 GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP The Center for Real Estate Entrepreneurship at George Mason University strives to advance real estate research and education in real estate development and finance. Working in partnership with leading real estate developers, professionals, and organizations in the Washington, D.C. area, the center develops relevant content for the business and academic communities. The center acts as a bridge between the Master of Science in Real Estate Development academic program and the real estate industry. It provides MS in Real Estate Development students with a forum for professional development and offers them unique opportunities to connect with the real estate development community. Center for Real Estate Entrepreneurship CONTACT US Locations Fairfax Arlington Herndon For more information about The Center for Real Estate Entrepreneurship please contact Eric Maribojoc, CREE Executive Director at rmariboj@gmu.edu. Or, visit us on the web at business.gmu.edu/realestate. The Center for Real Estate Entrepreneurship is within George Mason s School of Business. Ranked by U.S. News & World Report in the top 15 percent of all AACSB accredited business schools, the School of Business is one of only 10 percent of business schools worldwide that is accredited in both business and accounting by the Association to Advance Collegiate Schools of Business (AACSB) International. Main Campus School of Business 4400 University Drive, MS 1B1 Enterprise Hall Fairfax, VA