Signs of Recovery Ahead

Transcription

1 Research & Forecast Report Northern Virginia Office Market Fourth Quarter 2015 Signs of Recovery Ahead Audrey Hinkle Research Analyst Northern Virginia In recent years, fiscal uncertainty has created softness in the Northern Virginia market. Since the implementation of the Sequestor, government contractors have reduced the amount of space they leased impacting the entire market. However, with the government loosening the cap on federal spending activity, the Northern Virginia office market saw significant demand growth for the first year since During the fourth quarter, 60 leases were signed over 10,000 square feet, 25 percent more than were signed in the third quarter. With strengthening demand for space during the fourth quarter of 2015, absorption totaled 877,930 square feet. Such strong absorption in the fourth quarter was preliminary indicator of the Northern Virginia Market s improvement. Government contractors lead the region in largest leases signed, accounting for six of the ten largest. Three of these constituted new or additional space. These leases will generate almost a quarter of a million square feet of net absorption over the next two years. In addition, government agencies and contractors that were once consolidating the Department of Defense and Booz Allen Hamilton to name two renewed two of their leases in the fourth quarter with no contraction. The other large contractor leases executed were of the same size as opposed to contraction, which have plagued the market in 2014 and early Though, Arlington, specifically the Rosslyn-Ballston (R-B) Corridor, may not be signing deals with the government, the numerous attempts to attract start-up and tech companies to the area are starting to pay off. In fact, the R-B Corridor saw positive demand for the quarter with 77,601 square feet of space absorbed. In contrast, 179,702 square feet was returned during the third quarter. A large portion of leases signed in the R-B Corridor were executed by technology sector companies. These, however, were all less than 50,000 square feet in size. Market Indicators Relative to prior period VACANCY NET ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION RENTAL RATE Note: Construction is the change in under development. *Projected 2015 Q4 2016* Summary Statistics 2015 Q4 Regional Office Market All Classes Class A Class B & C Vacancy Rate 17.6% 17.9% 17.3% Change from 2015 Q3 (Basis Points) Absorption (Square Feet) New Construction (Square Feet) Under Construction (Million Square Feet) Asking Rates Per Square Foot/Year , , , ,664 95,000 20, Direct Asking Rate $31.42 $34.67 $28.51 Change from 2015 Q3 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%

2 Recently, tech start-ups have leased collaborative space, as well as introduced workplace initiatives offering the option for employees to work remotely. Therefore, their need for large blocks of contiguous space is less than that of government contractors which require secured space and additional workrooms. Therefore, although the amount of business in the technology sector is growing in the market, it will have less of an impact on the leasing market than the recovering government contracting industry. Economics The office-using economy demonstrated growth during the fourth quarter of The seasonal adjusted office-using growth rate grew 0.72 percent since last quarter, generating over 11,000 jobs in Northern Virginia. Since the fourth quarter of 2014, seasonally adjusted job growth has occurred in the financial activities, professional and business services, and government sectors. Source: Colliers International, CoStar Group Northern Virginia s office using economy has created 17,000 new jobs during 2015, which shows significant improvement from 2014 numbers when only 8,200 jobs were created for the year. The overall growth in jobs this year points towards a market recovery as all the jobs lost under Sequestration have been recovered. Absorption Not just government contractor demand in Northern Virginia increased in the fourth quarter. A number of private sector companies and smaller technology companies increased their demand for office space. These smaller move-ins accounted for the majority of this quarters 877,000 square feet of net absorption. Smaller tenants of note that moved into new space included Stanley Martin, Blue Canopy and Pulte. The largest move-ins this quarter included SRA International which occupied 150,000 square feet at Conference Center Drive, and Capital One, which moved into 135,000 square feet at 1750 Tysons Boulevard. Source: Colliers International, CoStar Group As noted, the R-B Corridor has continued to struggle even before the contraction in government spending and relocation of contractors to areas with cheaper space. During 2015, the area continued to see demand contract, but at a slower pace than in recent history. During 2015, 84,000 square feet of space was returned to the R-B Corridor. This compares to almost 700,000 square feet returned in Crystal City had the greatest demand for the year with net absorption totaling 545,000 square feet. With the lower cost of space, and its proximity to both the District and the Pentagon, the area became a popular destination for government agencies and contractors throughout the year. Areas outside the beltway with lower priced space remained competitive in the market. Route 28 Corridor South had almost a half million square feet absorbed for the year. Source: Colliers International, CoStar Group 2 Northern Virginia Office Market Research & Forecast Report Fourth Quarter 2015 Colliers International

3 Move-ins in Route 28 Corridor South have been closely tied with National Intelligence and has largely been driven by defense contractors throughout the year. However, private sector tenants have been active in the market too. Overall in 2015, net absorption totaled 941,716 square feet of absorption, the most since Last year, 609,000 square feet of space was given back to the market. Vacancy With demand for office space strong during the year and lower levels of new supply, the overall vacancy rate decreased 40 basis points since the start of the year. At 17.6 percent, the vacancy rate in Northern Virginia still remained higher than previous years, and was the second highest recorded at yearend in past eleven years. With a moderate amount of speculative development currently under construction, demand for space must remain high in order for vacancy to continue decreasing over the next few quarters. were build-to-suits. While some developers may not risk constructing speculatively, those that have are developing in close proximity to Metro and well established amenities. This quarter, three developments commenced. The largest was Reston Station, a 375,000-square-foot speculative office building located adjacent to the Reston-Wiehle Metro station. Comstock, the developer, plans to move their headquarters to this building upon completion. No other leases have been signed. In 2015, nine buildings delivered. Of the 755,000 square feet constructed, 39.5 percent was leased upon delivery. Vacancy decreased in all but one county in Northern Virginia during the quarter. In Loudoun County, the vacancy rate rose from 15.9 percent to 16.4 percent. This rise in vacancy was due in part to the delivery of 95,000 square feet of medical office space at Gum Springs Road, which was completely vacant upon delivery. Development Even with the decreased demand for office space in recent years, development activity remained strong during Developers broke ground on six projects during the year for a total of about one million square feet of office space. However in past years, developers were more likely to build on speculative basis. In contrast, the majority of developments that started in 2015 Source: Colliers International, CoStar Group 3 Northern Virginia Office Market Research & Forecast Report Fourth Quarter 2015 Colliers International

4 Market Statistics Northern Virginia Office Market All Classes 2015 Q4 MARKET ALEXANDRIA CITY EXISTING INVENTORY NEW SUPPLY ) 2015 NEW SUPPLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION ABSORPTION 2015 ABSORP- TION OVERALL VACANCY RATE DIRECT ASKING RENTAL RATE Eisenhower Ave Corridor 5,225, ,000-2,764-24, % $39.76 I-395 Corridor* 9,125, , , % $30.23 Old Town 8,971, ,876-10, % $33.21 Alexandria City Total 18,540, ,000 19,967-90, % $33.51 Arlington County/Falls Church City Crystal City/Pentagon City 13,455, , , % $38.06 Falls Church** 2,279, ,509 51, % $22.49 Rosslyn/Ballston Corridor 24,088, , ,548 77,601-91, % $41.24 Arlington County/Falls Church Total Fairfax County/Fairfax City 40,019, , , , , % $39.44 Annandale 1,871, ,581-71, % $25.04 Fairfax/Oakton 13,424,127 20,664 20,664-21, , % $24.47 Herndon 12,144, ,237-57, % $27.70 McLean 1,558, , % $32.09 Merrifield 9,845,682-27, , , % $31.25 Reston 18,926, ,413 56, , % $27.67 Route 28 Corridor South 14,146, , , , , % $25.47 Springfield 6,972, , , % $30.39 Tysons Corner 28,460, ,787, , , % $31.38 Vienna 1,542, ,721 31, % $24.40 Fairfax Area Total 113,478,174 20, ,664 2,315, , , % $28.59 Loudoun County Leesburg/West Loudoun 2,140,339 95,000 95, ,773 8,047 35, % $24.54 Route 28 Corridor North 9,689, , ,000-39,476 46, % $23.70 Route 7 Corridor 4,710,682-68,375 15,000 29, , % $25.29 Loudoun County Total 16,540,128 95, , ,773-1, , % $24.00 Prince William County/Manassas City/Manassas Park Manassas 1,976, ,206 22, % $20.84 Route 29/I-66 Corridor 2,585, , , % $18.21 Woodbridge 2,523, ,232 33, % $23.44 Prince William Area Total 7,085, , , % $20.50 Northern Virginia Total 195,663, , ,837 4,169, , , % $31.42 * I-395 Corridor extends into Arlington County, Fairfax County and Alexandria City. Jurisdictional totals reflect the portion of I-395 Corridor they contain. ** The Falls Church submarkets includes all of Falls Church City and extends into Fairfax County. Jurisdictional totals reflect the portion of Falls Church they contain. 4 Northern Virginia Office Market Research & Forecast Report Fourth Quarter 2015 Colliers International

5 Market Statistics Northern Virginia Office Market Class A 2015 Q4 MARKET ALEXANDRIA CITY EXISTING INVENTORY NEW SUPPLY ) 2015 NEW SUPPLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION ABSORPTION 2015 ABSORP- TION OVERALL VACANCY RATE DIRECT ASKING RENTAL RATE Eisenhower Ave Corridor 3,713, ,000 2,206-9, % $42.14 I-395 Corridor* 4,256, , , % $31.28 Old Town 3,515, ,280 32, % $36.36 Alexandria City Total 9,152, ,000 4,157-40, % $37.51 Arlington County/Falls Church City Crystal City/Pentagon City 6,166, , , % $40.92 Falls Church** 128, ,265 5, % $29.50 Rosslyn/Ballston Corridor 15,531, , ,548-10,827 57, % $43.30 Arlington County/Falls Church Total Fairfax County/Fairfax City 22,357, , ,548 24, , % $42.10 Annandale 200, ,862-14, % $31.50 Fairfax/Oakton 4,949, ,130 18, % $29.17 Herndon 7,940, ,361 82, % $30.23 McLean n/a n/a Merrifield 5,378, , , % $32.60 Reston 11,085, , ,427 18, % $30.95 Route 28 Corridor South 8,903, , , , , % $27.33 Springfield 2,435, , , % $39.34 Tysons Corner 13,726, ,787, , , % $37.19 Vienna 406, ,324 32, % n/a Fairfax Area Total 56,828, ,000 2,315, , , % $31.80 Loudoun County Leesburg/West Loudoun 746,018 95,000 95,000 95,000 6,766 25, % $25.64 Route 28 Corridor North 5,435, ,000-8,620 16, % $25.28 Route 7 Corridor 1,040, ,915 64, % $26.03 Loudoun County Total 7,222,533 95,000 95, ,000 26, , % $25.41 Prince William County/Manassas City/Manassas Park Manassas 163, ,556-10, % $25.95 Route 29/I-66 Corridor 603, ,948 14, % $26.60 Woodbridge 470, ,606-17, % $28.62 Prince William Area Total 1,237, ,110-13, % $27.23 Northern Virginia Total 96,797,071 95, ,331 4,011, ,337 1,023, % $34.67 * I-395 Corridor extends into Arlington County, Fairfax County and Alexandria City. Jurisdictional totals reflect the portion of I-395 Corridor they contain. ** The Falls Church submarkets includes all of Falls Church City and extends into Fairfax County. Jurisdictional totals reflect the portion of Falls Church they contain. 5 Northern Virginia Office Market Research & Forecast Report Fourth Quarter 2015 Colliers International

6 Market Statistics Northern Virginia Office Market Class B & C 2015 Q4 MARKET ALEXANDRIA CITY EXISTING INVENTORY NEW SUPPLY ) 2015 NEW SUPPLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION ABSORPTION 2015 ABSORP- TION OVERALL VACANCY RATE DIRECT ASKING RENTAL RATE Eisenhower Ave Corridor 1,511, ,970-15, % $24.88 I-395 Corridor* 4,868, ,297-39, % $29.25 Old Town 5,456, ,156-43, % $30.19 Alexandria City Total 9,388, ,810-50, % $28.61 Arlington County/Falls Church City Crystal City/Pentagon City 7,288, , , % $36.02 Falls Church** 2,151, ,244 46, % $22.41 Rosslyn/Ballston Corridor 8,557, , , % $38.57 Arlington County/Falls Church Total Fairfax County/Fairfax City 17,662, ,065 15, % $36.77 Annandale 1,671, ,719-56, % $23.10 Fairfax/Oakton 8,474,587 20,664 20,664-4, , % $23.50 Herndon 4,203, , , % $22.47 McLean 1,558, , % $32.09 Merrifield 4,467,313-27,000-20,698 19, % $27.45 Reston 7,841, , , % $25.24 Route 28 Corridor South 5,243, ,055 9, % $23.02 Springfield 4,537, ,866 78, % $22.87 Tysons Corner 14,733, , , % $29.03 Vienna 1,135, ,397-1, % $24.40 Fairfax Area Total 56,650,077 20,664 47, , , % $26.06 Loudoun County Leesburg/West Loudoun 1,394, ,773 1,281 9, % $24.14 Route 28 Corridor North 4,253, , ,856 30, % $19.87 Route 7 Corridor 3,669,945-68,375 15,000 2,054 56, % $23.22 Loudoun County Total 9,317, , ,773-27,521 96, % $21.09 Prince William County/Manassas City/Manassas Park Manassas 1,813, ,762 32, % $19.72 Route 29/I-66 Corridor 1,981, ,640 94, % $17.44 Woodbridge 2,053, ,626 50, % $21.98 Prince William Area Total 5,848, , , % $19.31 Northern Virginia Total 98,866,918 20, , , ,593-82, % $28.51 * I-395 Corridor extends into Arlington County, Fairfax County and Alexandria City. Jurisdictional totals reflect the portion of I-395 Corridor they contain. ** The Falls Church submarkets includes all of Falls Church City and extends into Fairfax County. Jurisdictional totals reflect the portion of Falls Church they contain. 6 Northern Virginia Office Market Research & Forecast Report Fourth Quarter 2015 Colliers International

7 Deliveries Northern Virginia Office Market 2015 Q4 PROJECT DEVELOPMENT TYPE SUBMARKET CLASS DELIVERY DATE Canfield Village 4290 Chain Bridge Road RENTAL BASE AREA % COMMITTED Speculative Condos Fairfax City B October , % Stone Spring Hospital Center Gum Spring Road Speculative Medical Condos Leesburg/West Loudoun A December , % Under Construction Northern Virginia Office Market 2015 Q4 PROJECT DEVELOPMENT TYPE SUBMARKET CLASS DELIVERY DATE COPT - Phase Stonecroft Boulevard RENTAL BASE AREA % COMMITTED Build-to-suit Route 28 Corridor South A January , % 1775 Tysons Boulevard Speculative Tysons Corner A January , % Glenn Drive Build-to suit Route 28 North August , % Mitre Coleshire Drive NSF Headquarters Eisenhower Avenue Marymount 1000 N Glebe Road Reston Station On Plaza 1900 Reston Metro Drive Central Place Tower/CEB Tower 1201 Wilson Boulevard Capital One Campus Building 3 Capital One Drive N Build-to-suit Tysons Corner A October , % Build-to-suit Eisenhower Avenue Corridor A January , % Build-to-suit Ballston A April , % Speculative Reston A June , % Pre-Committed Rosslyn A February , % Build-to-suit Tysons Corner A August , % Largest Leases Northern Virginia Office Market 2015 Q4 TENANT ADDRESS LEASE TYPE LEASED SAPCE Raytheon Company Pacific Boulevard Renewal 666,377 Department of Defense (DoD) 2521 S Clark Street Renewal 353,631 LMI 7940 Jones Branch Drive Sale/Leaseback 161,641 Capital One 7900 Westpark Drive New 136,000 Fairfax County Public Schools 8270 Willow Oaks Corporate Drive New 122,948 Booz Allen Hamilton, Inc. 575 Herndon Parkway Renewal 116,343 Carfax, Inc Trinity Center Parkway Renewal/Expansion 103,789 Amazon Web Services Worldgate Drive Expansion 83,000 AECOM 3101 Wilson Boulevard Expansion 69,411 Front Point 1595 Spring Hill Road Renewal 62,000 7 Northern Virginia Office Market Research & Forecast Report Fourth Quarter 2015 Colliers International

8 This was a significantly lower amount of supply than what delivered last year when 2,254,510 square feet delivered in Northern Virginia. Of the space delivered in 2014, 56.1 percent was leased at delivery. Rental Rates For the fourth quarter in a row, the direct average asking rental rate increased in Northern Virginia, which was driven by high confidence in Class A product. The average Class A asking rate was $34.67 per square foot for the quarter, up from $34.61 per square foot in the third quarter of For the quarter, the direct average rental rate across all classes was $34.42 per square foot, up from the previous quarter when it was $31.32 per square foot. Areas outside the beltway continued to have lower asking rental rates than those submarkets closer to DC. It is not surprising that the highest rates were seen in Arlington, which averaged $39.44 per square foot for the quarter. Although vacancy remains high in these areas, landlords continued to maintain higher asking rental rates. Tenants were able lease Class A or trophy space in submarkets a little farther from the District than those adjacent for lower rates. For example, Class A rental rates in Rosslyn were $39.70 per square foot for the quarter; in comparison, Tysons Corner s average rate was $31.38 per square foot. Outlook Though it may seem that there is only room for growth in the market, fiscal uncertainty will continue to negatively affect leasing in the Northern Virginia. Because Northern Virginia still relies highly on government contractors, if Congress acts imprudently, final budget decisions (or lack of) could once again negatively impact demand in the market. Landlords should be aware that until a budget is in place, contractors and government agencies may not be willing to pay premium rental rates or even to make long term commitments let alone take on additional space. As Northern Virginia is a popular tech hub for the east coast; smaller leases from non-government related tenants will continue through out the market and drive demand in the market. While, commencement of speculative development has slowed, there are still speculative projects set to deliver. If demand for high-end space near Metro stays strong, then speculative projects like 1775 Tysons Boulevard and Reston Station will remain successful. Landlords on average offered one month of rental abatement for every year within the lease to compete for tenants. Tenant improvement packages have ranged between $70 to $80 per square foot on a ten year lease. FOR MORE INFORMATION Robert Hartley Director of Research Greater Washington, DC robert.hartley@colliers.com CONTRIBUTORS Audrey Hinkle Research Analyst Northern Virginia Copyright 2016 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. Colliers International Greater Washington, DC 8045 Leesburg Pike Suite 401 Vienna, VA colliers.com/washingtondc