Historic Vacancy Low Realized!

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1 Oahu Hawaii Research & Forecast Report INDUSTRIAL MARKET REPORT Year-End 2015 Historic Vacancy Low Realized! Mike Hamasu Director of Research Hawaii The Oahu industrial market posted a new historic low vacancy rate of a miniscule 1.65% at year-end The previous low of 1.71% was reported at year-end 2004 when Hawaii was in the midst of a global construction and real estate financial boom. The 197,854 square feet of fourth quarter occupancy growth resulted in a year-end 2015 net absorption of 173,186 square feet. Industrial Net Absorption vs. Vacancy Rate Record low vacancy rates force tenants to take strategic action early to find new locations. Alika Cosner (S), Senior Associate 6.00% 400, , , % 4.00% 2.00% Market Indicators Relative to prior quarter VACANCY Year End % NET ABSORPTION (200,000) -2.00% CONSTRUCTION RENTAL RATE (400,000) -4.00% (600,000) Net Absorption (SF) Vacancy Rate 2015 Colliers International Research and Consulting. All rights reserved % Being in the tightest industrial market in the nation creates an extremely challenging situation for Oahu s industrial tenants. With healthy economic conditions, industrial businesses (i.e. wholesale distributors, construction firms, suppliers, etc.) are thriving, but are severely hampered by the lack of available properties for expansion to meet company growth. The last time there was any significant speculative warehouse development, the market was flooded with industrial condominiums for sale and lease at the start of the Great Recession (2008). Summary Statistics 4Q 2015 Industrial Market 4Q2015 Net Absorption 197,854 SF YTD Net Absorption 173,186 SF Vacancy Rate 1.65% Direct Weighted Average Asking Rent $1.13 PSF/Mo. Average Operating Expense $0.35 PSF/Mo.

2 Kapolei Trade Center This lack of new supply has made it necessary for tenants to start their search early. As an example, a Colliers client was in need of 30,000 square feet near the Honolulu International Airport. Not surprisingly, Colliers professionals quickly discovered that there were very few options in the area for a requirement of this size. After months of scouring the market, a 30,000 square foot location was finally secured, but with a delayed occupancy date in This severe shortage situation is visually represented on the Available Listings by Size Categories chart to the right. At year-end 2015, industrial space listings fell to its lowest level in nine years, registering 163 versus 199 from a year ago. The majority of these listings are concentrated in the 4,000 square feet and under category. As the bread and butter category for many industrial landlords, the limited number of listings in this size range is significant when viewed against 2010 levels. There was a whopping 64.5% decline in this category over the past five years. Just as with a child s Christmas wish list, warehouse tenants also have a long laundry list of building space requirements. The intense competition for decent warehouse properties has resulted in tenants having to face a market reality check. Brokers have had to manage overly optimistic tenant expectations. Tenant wish lists must be severely reduced in order to find an appropriate space. Anecdotally, functionally obsolete vacant warehouse properties that may suffer from significant deferred maintenance are beginning to reappear as options in space searches. It appears that the proverbial bottom of the barrel is all that is left for prospective tenants to consider. Number of Available Listings by Size Categories <4,000 sf 4,000-7,500 sf 7,501-20,000 sf 20,001-40,000 sf >40,000 sf 2015 Colliers International. Research & Consulting. All rights reserved. Private Building Permits (October YTD) $Billions $2.500 $2.000 $1.500 $1.000 $0.500 $1.053 $1.476 $1.792 $2.099 $0.000 Source: DBEDT 2 Oahu Research & Forecast Industrial Report Year-End 2015 Oahu, Hawaii Colliers International

3 Oahu Industrial Jobs (October) 78,000 76,000 74,000 72,000 70,000 68,000 66,000 64,000 62,000 60,000 58,000 Source: DBEDT Honolulu Cost Index 70,500 75, % 4.00% 3.50% 3.81% 3.00% 3.04% 3.02% 3.03% 2.50% 2.81% 2.76% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% 1Q2014 2Q2014 3Q2014 4Q2014 1Q2015 2Q2015 State economic forecasts project that healthy job growth, increased tourism arrival counts and construction activity will continue into In this environment, it appears that warehouse demand will continue to remain overheated. Construction permit volume has surged to a new high of $2.1 billion for the first ten months of the year and has doubled from the level of activity reported in October year-to-date construction sales rose by a healthy 14% over last year s levels, further supporting the belief that the construction sector will continue to be a primary economic engine for Hawaii. Construction cranes dot urban Honolulu s horizon and serve as proof of the current boom in development activity. The industrial job sectors (natural resources, construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade and transportation, warehouse and utilities) added 5,200 positions over the past year. The majority of this growth is attributed to the construction sector which added 4,700 jobs during this time period. Apprenticeship programs are in full recruiting mode as the construction trades attempt to replenish their depleted labor benches. Source: Rider Levett Bucknall 4Q2015 Finished Lots Industrial Estimated Land Values Mililani Campbell/Kapolei/Kenai $20 $28 $25 $35 Waipahu/Milltown Kaneohe/Kapaa Quarry $50 $47.50 $60 $57.50 Gentry Pearl City/Pearl City Industrial/Aiea Bougainville/Halawa $55 $65 $65 $65 $70 $70 Iwilei Airport/Mapunapuna Kalihi/Sand Island $100 $100 $100 $140 $140 $140 $0.00 $50.00 $ $ Colliers International Consulting and Research. All rights reserved. 3 Oahu Research & Forecast Industrial Report Year-End 2015 Oahu, Hawaii Colliers International

4 Construction and Land Prices Inhibit Warehouse Construction The lack of available skilled tradesmen places upward pressure on labor costs and construction project pricing. In the second quarter of 2015, Rider Levett Bucknall Quarterly Construction Cost Report, Honolulu s Cost Index increased an average of 2.91% per quarter over the past four quarters, for an annual jump in costs of 11.62%. Many believe construction costs will rise at an even faster pace once many of the permitted projects get under way. Industrial land values throughout Oahu have risen over the past few years. Urban industrial zoned (I-2) land is valued above $100 per square foot. Many industrial parks in Leeward Oahu are priced in excess of $50 per square foot. Only Mililani and West Oahu industrial parks provide developers with land under $35 per square foot. The combination of expensive urban industrial land prices and rapidly rising construction costs makes it virtually impossible for a warehouse developer to pencil a speculative warehouse rental project in urban Honolulu at today s rental rates. For a rental project to be financially viable, the developer would have to charge rent that was more than double the current island-wide average asking rates. Even at sub-$40 per square foot land prices in West Oahu, a developer would need to secure rents 15% to 20% higher than current rents to make a decent return for its efforts. Average Asking Rental Rates Fall The island-wide direct weighted average asking rent, which had risen to a high of $1.17 psf/mo at the end of the second quarter 2015, fell to $1.13 psf/mo six months later. While this appears to be counterintuitive, the lack of leasable inventory is creating an interesting paradigm. The remaining warehouse properties are believed to be of lower quality and are in such poor condition that landlords are actually charging lower rents. Contracting Sales (October YTD) $Billions $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 Source: Department of Taxation Oahu Industrial Direct Wtd. Avg. Asking NNN Rents psf/mo $1.40 $1.30 $1.20 $1.10 $1.00 $0.90 $ Colliers International Research and Consulting. All rights reserved. An example of this phenomenon is a 17,000 square foot Waipahu warehouse listing, which has been on the market for years and is listed at $0.50 psf/mo. This property is the lowest priced warehouse on the entire island and is the primary reason that the Waipahu direct weighted average asking base rent is lower than any other submarket. Similarly, several of the larger available warehouse listings are priced below $1.00 psf/mo, which pulled the direct weighted average asking rent downward for fourth quarter While the average base rent is not truly representative of what a decent warehouse would lease for, it does indicate that abnormal market conditions do exist. The Oahu Industrial Lease Comparables Regression Analysis Chart provides a clearer picture of where industrial rents are heading. Colliers plots negotiated base rents for warehouse lease transactions and extrapolated a best fitted line for the median base rent. Based on this chart, rents are rapidly rising and have exceeded $1.25 psf/mo. $0.92 $0.96 $4.09 $0.99 $3.71 $1.10 $4.23 $ Oahu Research & Forecast Industrial Report Year-End 2015 Oahu, Hawaii Colliers International

5 No Pressure Valve for 2016 Where a pressure valve is usually activated to alleviate pent up heat or energy, Oahu s industrial market has already overheated and a red light is flashing. Rental rates are expected to continue to rise at a rapid pace until new supply is provided. With limited land available for warehouse development in urban Honolulu and no speculative developments over the near-term horizon, it appears that tenants will continue to be faced with difficult market conditions. Brokers will be left having to scrape the bottom of the pot to find any warehouse space to lease. The remaining leftovers will be challenging properties with deferred maintenance issues. Depending on how desperate a tenant is, the tenant may be responsible to fix or upgrade the property in order to occupy the space. Oahu Industrial Lease Comparables Regression Chart psf/mo $2.50 $2.00 Industrial Net Absorption vs. Vacancy Rate Forcast FORECAST 600, % 400, % $ , % $ % $0.50 (200,000) -2.00% $0.00 Apr-01 Jan-04 Oct-06 Jul-09 Apr-12 Dec-14 Sep-17 (400,000) (600,000) -4.00% -6.00% 2015 Colliers International Research and Consulting. All rights reserved. Net Absorption (SF) Vacancy 2015 Colliers International Research and Consulting. All rights reserved. 5 Oahu Research & Forecast Industrial Report Year-End 2015 Oahu, Hawaii Colliers International

6 Evolution of Kapolei Business Park 2004 to 2016 In 2004, only 9 buildings existed in Kapolei Business Park Guy Kidder (B) CCIM, SIOR Senior Vice President Industrial Services Division From 2004 through 2008, nearly 175 acres of vacant fee simple industrial zoned land was absorbed on the Island of Oahu. The individual industrial lots were primarily located in the following industrial parks: Mill Town Center, Waipio Gentry Industrial, Kenai Industrial Park, Campbell Industrial Park and Kapolei Business Park. Most of the lots sold were located in existing industrial parks with the exceptions of Mill Town Center and Kapolei Business Park, which were developed in the 1990s, and then sold in bulk to investors in 1998 and 2004, respectively. Mill Town Center sold almost all of their lots to end users by Kapolei Business Park started selling their lots in the last half of 2004 and was sold out by the end of The photo above is a picture of Kapolei Business Park in Over the next half-a-dozen years, we saw buildings pop-up all over the 175 acres. Companies who saw seemingly vacant lots in the middle of the real estate cycle did not realize that many of those lots were already spoken for, as design and construction of new industrial buildings take time. Those who did not act early in the cycle soon realized that all available inventory was gone and they were left to compete for higher priced property re-sales. Both CVS/Longs Drug and AirGas Hawaii purchased third generation lots in Kapolei Business Park for market high prices of over $40 per square foot in 2007/2008. Except for the occasional resale of an existing lot, there were almost no new industrial lots created in the years following the financial crisis. Any buyer who needed land or buildings for their business had to buy and repurpose an existing property. Over the years, many older properties in town have been converted from residential/office/ commercial use to distribution warehouses to help fill the gap in our industrial marketplace. This practice makes a lot of sense to users if they can buy a property below replacement cost. But as industrial zoned land va lues shot well past the $100 per square foot price barrier, industrial users are being priced out of the market and have headed west looking at comparative bargains, functionality and parking. 6 Oahu Research & Forecast Industrial Report Year-End 2015 Oahu, Hawaii Colliers International

7 Reading the tea leaves, local developer Avalon Development witnessed the disappearing inventory and partnered in mid2013 to acquire and develop 177 acres of industrial zoned land in Kapolei. Avalon just finished the Kapolei Business Park Phase 2a infrastructure (first of four phases) consisting of 17 lots/33.5 acres in October The sale of the 17 lots is happening at a pace reminiscent of the period, and Phase 2a is expected to be sold out by the end of first quarter All the larger lots in Phase 2A are already under contract. Half of these sales are to mainland companies expanding their existing operations in Hawaii. A Japanese based company, Ito En, is expanding their current footprint and may be planning a new 100,000 plus square foot manufacturing and distribution facility on its 5 acres of land in Kapolei. So far, local users are dominating the under 3 acre land market and several of them have been acquiring their lot utilizing HEDCO/SBA loans. Avalon Development has been walking buyers through the government guaranteed lending process and assisting buyers in the design and construction of their future facility Kapolei Business Park Phase 2A and Phase 2B Marketing for the next phase of Kapolei Business Park (Phase 2B) consisting of 7 lots comprised of 14.9 acres will being in January 2016 with an expected delivery in August Even with limited new inventory entering the market in 2016, rising construction costs, continued gentrification of industrial zoned land in Kakaako and Kalihi, government takings in the greater airport/harbor area, and land being up-zoned and absorbed by the rail project are all supply reducing factors expected to contribute to increased demand for new industrial land. I wrote in July 2014, I expect lease rents and land values in greater Kapolei to rise by 30 to 50% by the end of We are not there yet, but I still anticipate pressures pushing prices higher. Limited availability of land and virtually no buildings of any size - where else can prices go? One of the things that can help offset higher facility costs are functionally efficient buildings. The majority of our distribution warehouse inventory are older metal buildings with limited parking and no loading docks. We believe that Hawaii may be ripe for functional very high-cube (37 to 45 feet clear height) distribution facilities that may cost more per square foot to build, but less per cubic foot to operate. We expect to see a handful of these buildings on Oahu in the next few years. Kalaeloa Boulevard To City of Kapolei & H-1 Freeway RA IL Lot acs. NIU PIA WEST HARDWARE EAGLE LEASING PARTNERS COMPANY STORES Opule Street Lot acs. U u Place WATCH Lot acs. PRIME EQUITIES TOWER PENTECOST HEALTH NEX GENERA t re e t RTIES CARDINAL L a u ia FORT STREET uw La Lot acs. Lot Lot acs. 58 Lot 23 Lot acs acs acs. Lot 4 59 il iw acs. ili Lot 5 Lot 18 St 60 Lot 16 re acs acs. et acs. 70 Lot acs. Lot 17 Lot acs acs. Lot acs. Lot acs. 64 Lot acs. 65 Lot acs. 66 HSS - K2 LAND LONGS DRUG PENTECOST LLM PALAMA EAGLE HOLDINGS LEASING GROUP BUILDERS BKS PARTNERSHIP DESALINATION FIRE PLANT STATION CARPENTERS DESALINATION PLANT EXPANSION AGSALUD CONSTRUCTION KAPOLEI TRADE CENTER Munu Stree t CARRIER JOH BR NSON OT HE RS OPERATING ENGINEERS ALII GLASS SERVCO PACIFIC FOPCO KAPOLEI 67 L au wi l iwi l i S t re e t Lot acs. AIRGAS Lot acs. O p a k a p a k a S t re e t Future Komohana Street Lot acs. Lot acs. L au KAI B&G w il iw il INVESTMENTS is tre La uw ili w ili St re et CHURCH OF LATTER DAY SAINTS CARPENTERS et GOODWILL HENKELS Kapolei Business Park Phase 1 & MCCOY KAPOLEI SPECTRUM BUSINESS PARK Kapolei Business Park Phase 2A Kapolei Business Park Phase 2B 7 Oahu Research & Forecast Industrial Report Year-End 2015 Oahu, Hawaii Colliers International KS AC TR AD RO FUTURE TRUCK WEIGH STATION Lot acs.

8 YEAR-END 2015 Oahu Industrial Market Statistics INDUSTRIAL MARKET - BY SUBMARKET AREA NO. OF BUILDINGS BUILDING AREA (SF) TENURE* AVAILABLE SPACE (SF) 4Q 2015 NET ABSORPTION (SF) YTD NET ABSORPTION (SF) VACANCY RATE DIRECT WTD. AVG. ASKING RENT (NNN) (PSF/MO)** AVG. NET OP. EXP. (PSF/MO) HONOLULU Iwilei 97 2,355,935 Fee Simple 55,800 1,725 (10,656) 2.37% $1.08 $0.37 Kalihi 695 9,358,530 Fee Simple 185,411 49,328 (49,029) 1.98% $1.19 $0.33 Sand Island ,353 Leasehold 9,943 (1,773) (3,943) 1.76% $0.87 $0.30 Mapunapuna 105 4,193,541 Leasehold 42,924 27,201 (8,990) 1.02% $1.05 $0.35 Airport 127 4,662,873 Fee Simple 34,827 44,012 16, % $1.35 $0.63 Total Honolulu 1,096 21,135, , ,493 (55,735) 1.56% $1.16 $0.37 CENTRAL OAHU Bougainville ,460 Leasehold 0 0 6, % $1.25 $0.38 Halawa 84 2,594,562 Leasehold 38,680 21,849 70, % $1.15 $0.33 Pearl City/Aiea 32 1,660,582 Fee Simple 28,000 (5,375) 19, % $1.53 $0.47 Pearl City Industrial Park*** ,292 Fee Simple 14,413 (8,833) 23, % $1.18 $0.28 Gentry Business Park 66 1,778,759 Fee Simple 24,768 4,800 35, % $1.26 $0.44 Milltown ,280 Fee Simple 10,900 1,983 (7,012) 2.52% $1.30 $0.37 Waipahu 128 2,716,063 Fee Simple 53,640 50,160 47, % $0.64 $0.21 Total Central Oahu ,750, ,401 64, , % $0.98 $0.31 WEST OAHU Campbell Industrial Park 121 4,960,296 Fee Simple 26,583 11,616 30, % $1.00 $0.23 Kapolei Business Park 51 1,432,383 Fee Simple 100,548 9,903 2, % $1.30 $0.33 Malakole Industrial Park 3 197,000 Fee Simple % $1.00 $0.23 Kenai Industrial Park 12 90,680 Fee Simple % $1.00 $0.23 Kalaeloa Industrial 5 47,137 Fee Simple 0 0 4, % $0.00 $0.12 Total Kapolei 192 6,727, ,131 21,519 36, % $1.24 $0.31 WINDWARD OAHU Kapaa Industrial **** ,704 Fee Simple 13,129 (8,854) 7, % $1.95 $0.31 Kaneohe ,851 Fee Simple 17, (13,246) 2.91% $0.68 $0.60 Total Windward 100 1,154,555 30,680 (8,742) (5,275) 2.66% $1.22 $0.47 OAHU TOTALS ,768, , , , % $1.13 $0.35 *Leasehold tenure associated with industrial parks with 75% or more of land under ground lease. ** Weighted average rents are calculated on I-1 and I-2 zoned properties. IMX zoned properties, which can be used for this submarket retail have been excluded from this rent calculation. *** Only gross rents are quoted for this market. Colliers estimated the base rents and operating expense components. **** Only gross rents are quoted Colliers International Research & Consulting. All rights reserved. TERMS AND DEFINITIONS > INVENTORY - Industrial buildings greater than 2,500 square feet located on the island of Oahu, inclusive of owner user, and single tenant buildings. > TOTAL SQUARE FEET - All rentable industrial space exclusive of common areas, yard space and fire escapes. > VACANT SPACE - Industrial space that is not occupied by a tenant. This includes sublease space that is unoccupied. > VACANCY RATE - The ratio of vacant industrial space divided by the total industrial inventory square footage. > NET ABSORPTION - The net change in occupied space over a period of time. Year-to-date net absorption is the difference in occupied space between the end of the previous year and the current quarter. > DIRECT WEIGHTED AVERAGE ASKING RENT (NNN) - The ratio of aggregate landlord asking rents divided by the total available space within a specific geography. > AVERAGE OPERATING NET EXPENSE - The average rate of tenant expenses such as building utilities, management fees, building maintenance, real property taxes and insurance within a specific geography. > NNN RENTS - Rents exclusive of building operating expenses. EXECUTIVE MANAGEMENT Sarah Lee Morihara (S) President/Managing Director sarah.morihara@colliers.com Andrew D. Friedlander (B) SIOR Principal Broker andrew.friedlander@colliers.com CONSULTING & RESEARCH Mike Y. Hamasu Director of Consulting & Research mike.hamasu@colliers.com Nanette Vinton (S) Research Consultant / Project Manager nanette.vinton@colliers.com INDUSTRIAL SERVICES Scott L. Mitchell (B) SIOR Executive Vice President scott.mitchell@colliers.com Guy V. Kidder (B) CCIM SIOR Senior Vice President guy.kidder@colliers.com William Bill Froelich (B) JD CCIM SIOR Senior Vice President william.froelich@colliers.com Ronald C. Ward (S) Vice President ronald.ward@colliers.com Alika Cosner (S) Senior Associate alika.cosner@colliers.com Kaione Crabb (S) Associate kaione.crabb@colliers.com Copyright 2015 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. 8 North American Research & Forecast Report Q Office Market Outlook Colliers International Colliers International Hawaii 220 S. King Street, Suite 1800 Honolulu, Hawaii colliers.com/hawaii