Nashville the #5 Market to Watch in 2019

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1 Research & Forecast Report NASHVILLE INDUSTRIAL 4 th Quarter Nashville the #5 Market to Watch in 2019 Industrial Market The industrial real estate sector is currently undergoing one of the greatest expansionary periods in the nation s history. Record development, all-time high occupancy and rental rates, and strong leasing activity have been a boon to the U.S. industrial market in the last two years. SUMMARY STATISTICS 4Q Nashville Industrial Market Small Flex Bulk Vacancy Rate 1.7% 5.0% 4.4% These trends are interwoven into Nashville s industrial sector, as Nashville industrial remained under 4% since while simultaneously, rents continued to escalate in all property classes. Over 1.15 million square feet in leasing, combined with over 4 million square feet of deliveries strongest year in the past 10 years, second to resulted in a solid in Middle Tennessee. In addition to these fundamental elements that make up a strong sector, there has been a demand driver that has transformed the industrial market more now than ever: e-commerce. Amazon is now the largest industrial occupier postrecession, which is forcing retailers and wholesalers to modernize their supply chain to keep up. This includes leasing industrial space within closer proximity to consumers, or working with third-party logistics companies (3PLs) to deliver products the last leg or last mile to its final destination. E-commerce is not a new phenomenon, but it is becoming increasingly competitive, and is expected to grow another 55% in the next four years according to Colliers International research. The last mile challenge is also making waves in Nashville. Third-party logistics companies are pouring into Middle Tennessee, and some companies are locating closer to the urban core. Amazon was one of the high-profile companies that signed a lease and moved in into 124,000 square feet at Panattoni s Skyline Distribution Center close to downtown Nashville. 3PLs are also taking over large blocks of existing industrial warehouse space within close proximity of highways that connect to major interstates. Superior Third Party Logistics, which transports Dollar Tree products, signed at 245 Couchville Pike and will occupy 237,275 square feet in January in the high-demand Southeast submarket. Absorption (SF) 75, , ,518 Absorption 177, , M New Supply (SF) M Under Construction 6.7M 4.2M 4.3M ASKING RENTS Per Square Foot Per Year NNN Overall Asking Rate $4.97 Flex $12.30 Bulk $5.03 Small/Mid-Range $8.01 Unemployment Rates Nov-17 Nov-18 Nashville 2.6% 2.9% Tennessee 3.3% 3.6% U.S. 4.1% 3.7% NEW SUPPLY 8,000,000 Published in the fourth quarter, Urban Land Institute s Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2019 ranked Nashville the #5 Market to Watch in This is Nashville s fourth consecutive year in the top ten. The report credits Nashville s strong population growth, cost of living, and favorable economic and demographic shifts as contributors to its real estate investment attractiveness. The metro also earned high marks in national surveys of economic strength throughout the year, including #1 City Creating the Most High-Wage Jobs by Forbes; the #4 Strongest Economy in America by POLICOM; and #1 Fastest-Growing Large Metro of by Headlight Data. Square Feet 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 8 MILLION SF PLANNED 1,000, Deliveries 10-Year Average Deliveries

2 Nashville s economy drives a dynamic industrial market, led by the highdemand Southeast submarket and strong peripheral submarkets. The 4 million square feet of deliveries was met with 3,518,282 positive square feet of absorption, marking another strong year for the industrial market. Nashville s industrial market remains one of the strongest in the Southeast, with over 8 million square feet of development at the planned/proposed stage. Vacancy & Availability > > A slight uptick in vacancy of 10 basis points was met with increased availability of new supply hitting the market during the fourth quarter. > > The Southeast submarket experienced the greatest increase in bulk product vacancy from the third quarter, 150 basis points to 5.1% due to 1.5M square feet added to the inventory in the fourth quarter. > > The overall vacancy rate for flex space remains under 5% for the tenth consecutive quarter. Dropping by 3.2% since 3Q, the vacancy rate for flex product was the largest drop in vacancy by property type. VACANCY SNAPSHOT RENTAL RATES SNAPSHOT EAST $5.93 $4.85 $5.79 SOUTH $4.97 DIST/WAREHOUSE $5.54 MANUFACTURING $5.05 FLEX RENTAL RATES BY TYPE $15 $12 $8.03 $12.52 $8.54 $ % 5% 1.7% 4.4% 2.4% Rental Rate $9 4% Vacancy Rate $6 Small/ Mid-Range Bulk Flex $3 3% Rental Rates > > Average rental rates for each property type increased for the third consecutive quarter, with an overall average rental rate of $4.95 per square foot. > > Rates for small/mid-range product increased by 2.0% to $7.90 at the close of the third quarter, up from $7.74 per square foot in the second quarter and $7.17 in. > > Following a record year of deliveries in, and the outpacing of supply to absorption at the close of, rental rate growth for industrial product will likely begin to slow yet remain elevated in Middle Tennessee over the next few quarters. Absorption & Leasing Activity > > Industrial absorption in the Nashville market was positive for the eighteenth consecutive quarter, closing out 4Q at 377,684 square feet. At the close of, the market absorbed 3,518,282 square feet. This is the fourth consecutive year that Nashville s annual absorption exceeded 3 million square feet. > > Leasing activity remained solid during the fourth quarter with over 1.15M square feet in deals executed. Notable new leases signed this quarter included Cardinal Health (322,920 SF) at Park 24; Superior Third Party Logistics (237,275 SF) at 245 Couchville Pike; SR Smith (166,500 SF) at 5557 Highway 31 in Portland: and Goggin Warehousing (113,291 SF) at 3308 Briley Park Road. ABSORPTION, NEW SUPPLY & VACANCY RATES Square Feet $ Small/Mid-Range Bulk Flex Market Vacancy 10-year avg. absorption New Supply Net Absorption Vacancy 2% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% Vacancy Rate 2 : Nashville Research & Forecast Report 4Q Industrial Colliers International

3 NASHVILLE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT PROPERTY *Bold text indicates a Colliers transaction. SIZE SF NOTABLE LEASING ACTIVITY EST. COMPLETION SUB Cedar Farms 902,385 1Q 2019 East Nashville Speedway 621,000 1Q 2019 East Beckwith 8 458,136 1Q 2019 East Prologis CentrePointe 5 387,000 1Q 2019 Southeast 115 Logistics Drive - Building B 324,000 1Q 2019 Southeast Mason Road Park 24 - Building ,000 1Q 2019 Southeast Mason Road Park 24 - Building ,000 1Q 2019 Southeast Industrial Development Activity > > Nashville delivered 3.6 million square feet in, with 70% added to the inventory in the fourth quarter. The majority of the new construction delivered in the Southeast submarket in 4Q, totaling 2,015,404 square feet. > > Notable 4Q deliveries included Interchange Distribution Center (1,000,000 SF), Park 840 (558,600 SF), Airport Business Park Building III (564,404 SF), and Dorman Distribution Center (815,670 SF). > > Nashville currently has 3,185,521 square feet of bulk product under construction, the heaviest concentration located in the Southeast submarket. The largest projects in the market are Al Neyer s 908,385 SF building at Cedar Farms, and 621,000 SF at Nashville Speedway. PROPERTY TENANT LEASE TYPE SIZE SF SUB Park 24 - Building IV Cardinal Health New 322,920 Southeast 245 Couchville Pike Superior 3rd Party Logistics New 237,275 East Ind Space Park South Cam International Renewal 212,000 Southeast 5557 Hwy 31 West SR Smith New 166,500 North 3308 Briley Park Blvd Goggin Warehousing New 113,291 North 11 Fant Industrial Drive Nashville Wraps Ren 100,218 North NOTABLE INVESTMENT ACTIVITY PROPERTY BUYER TOTAL SF SALE PRICE PRICE/SF SUB Interchange Distribution Center Blackstone 522,483 $29,535, Southeast Park 840 Building 200 O'Reilly Auto Parts 408,240 $25,537, East 1015 Herman St Phillip Morris USA 157,962 $21,260, Heil Quaker Boulevard Blackstone 238,900 $13,504, Southeast 1000 Herman St Phillip Morris USA 85,380 $9,029, DEFINITIONS Colliers Inventory All industrial and flex properties of more than 10,000 SF including owner-occupied. Research subject to revisions due to discrepancies in past reporting. 155 Flex A type of building designed to be versatile, which may be used in combination with office R&D, quasi-retail sales, and industrial warehouse and distribution uses. 70 Leasing Activity The square footage that is committed to and signed for under a lease obligation in each quarter, including direct leases, subleases, renewals of existing leases, and preleasing activity for buildings under construction or planned. EAST Absorption (Net) The net change in occupied space between the current quarter and the previous quarter, calculated by summing all the positive changes and subtracting all the negative changes. 41 Vacancy Rate Percentage rate of the total amount of vacant space divided by the total amount of existing inventory. 100 SOUTH Build-To-Suit Property that can be leased or owned by a tenant that was developed specifically for them. Triple Net Rent (NNN) Includes rent payable to the landlord and does not include additional expenses such as taxes, insurance, maintenance, janitorial and utilities. All industrial and high-tech/r&d rents in this report are quoted on an annual, triple net per square foot basis in U.S. dollars. New Construction Includes completed speculative and buildto-suit construction. New construction quoted on a net basis after any demolitions or conversions. 3 : Nashville Research & Forecast Report 4Q Industrial Colliers International

4 4Q SUB COMPARISON BUILDINGS TOTAL INVENTORY (SF) DIRECT VACANT (SF) SUBLEASE VACANT (SF) TOTAL VACANCY RATE 4Q NET ABSORPTION YTD NET ABSORPTION AVERAGE ASKING RENTAL RATE (PSF) EAST Small/Mid-Range 223 5,187,655 60, % -13,481 12,547 $6.61 Bulk ,901,004 2,005, % 76,566 1,246,918 $5.47 Flex 54 1,760, % 7,687 65,730 $10.66 East Total ,849,216 2,092, % 70,772 1,325,195 $5.93 Small/Mid-Range 312 6,510, , % ,306 $10.67 Bulk 74 9,039, , % -48,504-46,252 $5.68 Flex 44 1,770,214 74, % -4,072-36,093 $13.78 Total ,320, , % -52,214-42,039 $8.03 Small/Mid-Range 362 7,971, , % 30,795 94,759 $5.95 Bulk ,997,832 1,347, % -91, ,799 $3.84 Flex 76 3,346, ,185 18, % 109, ,600 $11.83 North Total ,315,485 1,600,683 18, % 48, ,158 $4.85 Small/Mid-Range 218 4,898, , % ,946 $6.81 Bulk ,818,436 2,311, , % 182,609 1,302,451 $4.97 Flex 92 3,993,906 89,757 2, % -1, ,661 $9.75 Southeast Total ,710,423 2,528, , % 180,511 1,555,058 $5.79 SOUTH Small/Mid-Range 141 3,106,735 45, % 58,091 23,129 $9.25 Bulk 77 8,073, ,087 15, % 49,657-13,492 $9.16 Flex 56 3,274,628 24, % 12,092 66,317 $18.31 Southwest Total ,454, ,891 15, % 119,840 75,954 $12.52 Small/Mid-Range 103 2,225, % $7.33 Bulk 39 7,735, , % 0-8,394 $9.33 Flex , % 10,350 27,750 $4.03 West Total ,304, , % 10,350 19,956 $8.54 Small/Mid-Range 1,359 29,899, , % 75, ,287 $8.01 Bulk ,565,814 6,514, , % 168,518 2,836,030 $5.03 Flex ,488, ,040 20, % 133, ,965 $12.30 TOTAL 2, ,954,385 7,354, , % 377,684 3,518,282 $ : Nashville Research & Forecast Report 4Q Industrial Colliers International

5 554 offices in 66 countries on 6 continents United States: 153 Canada: 34 Latin America: 24 Asia Pacific: 231 EMEA: 112 CONTACT: Janet Miller CEDC FM CEO & Market Leader janet.miller@colliers.com REGIONAL AUTHOR: Katie Lester CPRC Director of Research katie.barton@colliers.com Colliers International Nashville 615 3rd Avenue South, Suite 500 Nashville, TN $2.5 billion in annual revenue 2 billion square feet under management 16,000 professionals and staff About Colliers International Colliers International is a global leader in commercial real estate services, with more than 16,300 professionals operating out of 554 offices in 66 countries. Colliers International delivers a full range of services to real estate occupiers, owners and investors worldwide, including global corporate solutions, brokerage, property and asset management, hotel investment sales and consulting, valuation, consulting and appraisal services, mortgage banking and insightful research. Colliers International has been recognized and ranked by the International Association of Outsourcing Professionals Global Outsourcing 100 for 10 consecutive years, more than any other real estate services firm. colliers.com Copyright Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.