MANHATTAN OFFICE 2017

Transcription

1 Research Report MANHATTAN OFFICE 2017 Accelerating success. % $ ± Market Indicators Full Year 2016 Full Year 2017 Y-O-Y Change AVAILABILITY RATE 10.3% 10.0% -0.3pp AVERAGE ASKING RENT ($/SF/YR) $73.24 $ % LEASING ACTIVITY 33,403,588 37,046, % ABSORPTION (3,792,054) 1,258,108 5,050,162 Manhattan s leasing volume in 2017 was the second highest since 2003, slightly behind Historically low unemployment and strong job creation contributed to tenant demand. At 4.0%, New York City s unemployment rate (as of November 2017) was down 0.7pp (percentage points), year-over-year. This is the second-lowest monthly unemployment rate in New York City on record. 1 From November 2016 to November 2017, New York City added 68,100 new private sector jobs, a 1.8% yearly increase. New York City bettered annual employment growth nationally (at 1.7%) and for New York State (at 1.4%). 2 Catching FIRE At MSF, leasing activity in Manhattan was 10.9% higher, year-over-year. Deals by FIRE (financial services, insurance and real estate) tenants led leasing activity in 2017 with a 34% industry share; TAMI (technology, advertising, media and information services) companies trailed the FIRE sector considerably at 23%. Demand for new construction (post-2010) was strong in 2017 in all three markets, but especially so in Hudson Yards/ Manhattan West which accounted for nearly two-thirds of such leasing last year. In total for 2017, there was 3.68 MSF of leasing activity (greater than 15,000 SF) in post-2010 buildings, up significantly from 2.86 MSF in 2016 and 1.77 MSF in Leasing for Manhattan s priciest buildings also was higher last year. Deals with starting rents of $100.00/ SF or more were up 9.6% from 2016 to 1.63 MSF, more than any year aside from 2014 since the Great Recession. Nearly 50% of these leases (5,000+ SF) were in Midtown South, up from 22.7% in Flatlining Manhattan asking rents were down slightly as against 2016, the first yearly decrease since At an average of $72.74/ SF, asking rents dropped 0.7%. Yet, pricing was higher in ten of Manhattan s 18 submarkets, including all five Downtown submarkets. Asking rents in Class A buildings were down by 0.1% for the year to an average $78.13/ SF. The Class B average decreased by 1.0% to $61.99/ SF. Class C rents dropped as well, by 2.0% to $56.21/ SF. Sublet asking rents decreased by 1.4% annually to an average of $56.84/ SF. The sublet pricing average is 17.7% under the record-high $69.04/ SF from 3Q Pricing for Manhattan s six contiguous blocks of space larger than 250,000 SF was lower by 2.4% to $85.60/ SF in 2017, a 17.7%premiumtomarketaveragecomparedto19.7%oneyear ago. While Supplies Last Note: pp (percentage points) Manhattan s availability rate for the year was down by a marginal 0.3pp to 10.0%. Sublet availability was also stable at 1.8%. Net absorption was positive 1.26 MSF. Annual absorption has been positive in Manhattan each year since 2010, except for The number of available large blocks in Manhattan over 250,000 SF was cut by half during the year to a total of six. This decrease was the result of mega-deals at 180 Maiden Lane, 4 World Trade Center, 390 Madison Avenue and 5 Manhattan West. Additionally, smaller leases took place during the year to break up the contiguous 250,000+ SF blocks at 601 West 26th Street, 390 Madison Avenue, 4 Times Square, 575 Fifth Avenue and 75 Rockefeller Plaza. 1 Source: New York State Department of Labor. Unemployment data is not seasonally adjusted and no monthly employment data is available pre Source: New York State Department of Labor. Note: The availability rate is based on actively marketed space scheduled for tenant build-out within 12 months

2 Sweeter Every Year Concession packages rent abatements and tenant work allowances have been on the rise since In the last five years alone, the weighted rent abatement has nearly doubled from 5.7 months to 10.2 months while the weighted tenant improvement allowance also nearly doubled from $36.40/ SF to $72.75/ SF. During this same period the average asking rent only increased by 29.6%. In 2017, the weighted rent abatement period increased by 13.3% for the year to 10.2 months. The weighted work allowance was up 18.2% to $72.75/ SF. Large new leases with above-average concession packages, including BlackRock s lease at 50 Hudson Yards (847,000 SF), E&Y s deal at 1 Manhattan West (604,000 SF) and NY- Presbyterian s lease at 237 Park Avenue (471,000 SF), all contributed to the increase in concession values last year. Stay Tuned In the year ahead, landlords ability to compete with ever more generous lease concessions may well be limited. Forecasted increases in interest rates could constrain the flow of cheap money to finance tenant work allowances. At this point, the average free rent period is 10.2 months for an average deal term of 10.4 years. 3 At the same time, MSF of future available blocks greater than 100,000 SF will be added to the availability rate over the next several years due to committed tenant relocations. Moreover, an additional MSF of office construction/major building renovations is underway or planned. This increased supply, coupled with the already dramatic increases to concession values since 2008, may combine to exert downward pressure on asking rents. 3 Average term for concessions based on direct deals > 5,000 SF, with a lease term of at least 5 years. Manhattan Overall Average Asking Rent and Overall Availability Rate Direct Availability Rate Sublease Availability Rate Overall Average Asking Rent Availability Rate (%) 14% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% $75 $70 $65 $60 $55 $50 $45 Average Asking Rent ($/SF) 0% $40 Manhattan Overall Leasing Activity *Excludes deals under 5,000 SF Manhattan Leasing Activity 10 Year Rolling Average Square Feet (in Millions) Manhattan Market Report 2017 New York City / Office Colliers International

3 Manhattan Concessions *Direct deals, term > 5 years Manhattan Free Rent Manhattan TI Allowance 12 $80 Free Rent (Months) $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $72.75 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 TI Allowance $0. Note: Concessions are based on full-year averages. Manhattan Leasing Activity by Industry (2017) *Excludes deals under 5,000 SF 5% 5% 13% 6% 28% 10% 13% By Number of Tenants 11% 13% 20% 15% 13% 13% 15% 1% 3%2% 9% By Square Footage 23% 34% FIRE Professional Services Health Services Entertainment/Recreation TAMI Consumer Goods/Retail Public Sector Other Manhattan Leasing Activity by Size (2017) *Excludes deals under 5,000 SF 5% 4% 11% 15% 11% By Number of Deals 65% 14% 14% By Share of Activity 40% 21% 5,000-14,999 SF 15,000-24,999 SF 25,000-49,999 SF 50,000-99,999 SF 100,000 SF+ 3 Manhattan Market Report 2017 New York City / Office Colliers International

4 Manhattan Available Blocks of Space < 25, # of Blocks 3,567 Block Size Range (SF) 25,000-50,000 50, , , , > 250, Total Availability (MSF) Top 2017 Leases Market Address SF Leased Tenant Submarket Lease Type 1211 Avenue of the Americas 767,885 21st Century Fox Times Square Renewal/Expansion 452 Fifth Avenue 548,170 HSBC Times Square Renewal 237 Park Avenue 471,016 New York-Presbyterian Grand Central New 50 Hudson Yards 846,990 BlackRock 1 Manhattan West 604,168 Ernst & Young (E&Y) Hudson Yards/ Manhattan West Hudson Yards/ Manhattan West New New 498 Seventh Avenue 577, SEIU Penn Plaza/Garment New 200 Vesey Street 402,807 Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) World Trade Center Renewal 4 World Trade Center 378,243 Spotify World Trade Center New 28 Liberty Street 342,484 NY State Attorney General s Office Financial District New ECONOMIC INDICATORS GDP Gross Domestic Product CCI Consumer Confidence Index NYC Unemployment Rate $19,501 (3Q 2017) [in billions] Increase from 2Q (Dec 2017) Decrease from Nov % (Nov 2017) Decrease from Oct 2017 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, The Conference Board, New York State Department of Labor 4 Manhattan Market Report 2017 New York City / Office Colliers International

5 Manhattan Market Overview Submarket Inventory Overall Availability Rate Leasing Activity (Full Year) Net Absorption (Full Year) Overall Average Asking Rent Class A Average Asking Rent Class B Average Asking Rent Midtown 236,913, % 17,469, ,585 $80.86 $84.09 $59.59 Columbus Circle 32,676, % 2,451, ,553 $70.17 $75.81 $58.01 Grand Central 55,398, % 3,660,087 1,384,147 $72.11 $73.14 $61.04 Plaza District 86,104, % 4,703,373 (782,572) $93.11 $94.24 $60.75 Times Square 59,334, % 6,449, ,449 $76.46 $82.12 $60.18 U.N. Plaza 3,398, % 206,000 (367,992) $70.09 $ Midtown South 167,722, % 12,787, ,192 $66.86 $85.39 $64.80 Chelsea 40,647, % 2,468,367 (308,016) $68.43 $ $57.99 Gramercy Park 25,649, % 1,504,251 64,817 $73.08 $78.32 $73.20 Greenwich Village 5,805, % 183,417 (105,828) $83.99 $ $77.93 Hudson Square 13,009, % 1,121, ,007 $79.42 $81.30 $80.47 Hudson Yards/ Manhattan West 7,740, % 3,214, ,573 $94.38 $ $48.00 Murray Hill 13,808, % 477,337 7,319 $60.52 $63.56 $60.00 Penn Plaza/Garment 53,147, % 3,504,473 30,342 $55.69 $64.46 $56.95 Soho 7,914, % 313,532 (182,022) $85.37 $ $74.09 Downtown 105,690, % 6,788, ,331 $63.00 $64.42 $54.38 City Hall 7,684, % 398, ,644 $53.65 $52.82 $51.34 Financial District 42,090, % 3,369,909 4,218 $57.19 $58.07 $51.92 Insurance District 10,563, % 278,480 (652,298) $52.47 $54.74 $43.70 Tribeca 8,176, % 133,236 41,249 $ $68.02 World Trade Center 37,174, % 2,608, ,518 $69.61 $70.87 $49.58 Manhattan 510,326, % 37,046,063 1,258,108 $72.74 $78.13 $ Manhattan Market Report 2017 New York City / Office Colliers International

6 396 offices in 68 countries on 6 continents United States: 153 Canada: 29 Latin America: 24 Asia Pacific: 36 AZN: 42 EMEA: 111 CONTRIBUTORS: Craig Caggiano Executive Director Franklin Wallach Managing Director Chemerie Cheng Managing Director Brian English Senior Director Chen Zheng Director $2.6 billion in annual revenue 2.0 billion square feet under management 15,000 professionals and staff Colliers statistical sample set for Manhattan totals 510 MSF and includes all commercial office properties with at least 25,000 SF of office space, from 59 th Street to the Battery and river to river. Colliers availability rate includes only office space scheduled for tenant build out within 12 months. In tracking leasing activity, Colliers includes all lease types: renewals, expansions, relocations, and the occasional sale leaseback. About Colliers International Colliers International Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CIGI; TSX: CIGI) is an industry leading global real estate services company with 15,000 skilled professionals operating in 68 countries. With an enterprising culture and significant employee ownership, Colliers professionals provide a full range of services to real estate occupiers, owners and investors worldwide. Services include strategic advice and execution for property sales, leasing and finance; global corporate solutions; property, facility and project management; workplace solutions; appraisal, valuation and tax consulting; customized research; and thought leadership consulting. Colliers professionals think differently, share great ideas and offer thoughtful and innovative advice that helps clients accelerate their success. Colliers has been ranked among the top 100 global outsourcing firms by the International Association of Outsourcing Professionals for 12 consecutive years, more than any other real estate services firm. Colliers also has been ranked the top property manager in the world by Commercial Property Executive for two years in a row. For the latest news from Colliers International, visit Colliers.com or follow us on Twitter (@ColliersIntl) and LinkedIn. Copyright 2018 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.