With last month's gain, sales are now up 4.5% from May 2015 and are at their highest annual pace since February 2007.

Transcription

1 JULY 2016

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3 With last month's gain, sales are now up 4.5% from May 2015 and are at their highest annual pace since February Lawrence Yun NAR s Chief Economist

4 Now in its seventh year, the US economic recovery shows signs of slowing in the face of a strong dollar, a weakening global economy, and low energy prices. But as household growth continues to gain momentum, the housing sector should be an engine of growth. - Joint Center For Housing Studies of Harvard University

5 Demand for homes has been especially strong as more Americans find work, wages edge higher and mortgage rates remain historically low. We still have some ground to make up but housing remains a bright spot in the economy. - Freddie Mac

6 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages from Freddie Mac Freddie Mac 7/2016

7 Mortgage Rate Projections Quarter Fannie Mae Freddie Mac MBA NAR Average of All Four Q Q Q Q N/A /2016

8 Homeownership is an achievement to be proud of a dream come true Ipsos

9 Buying a home is an excellent long-term investment because it is likely to increase in value over time and it is one of the best ways for people to build wealth and assets: MacArthur Foundation

10 The bigger question is whether the housing crash diminished the general appeal of homeownership. The available evidence suggests that it has not. - Joint Center For Housing Studies of Harvard University

11 % of Renters Who Prefer to Own Increasing Federal Reserve Bank of New York

12 % of Renters Who Plan to Buy Increasing Federal Reserve Bank of New York

13 The more sustainable housing markets should allow for positive feedback loops in local economies, with strengthening job and income gains for residential real estate agents, mortgage bankers and home improvement workers. - David Berson, Nationwide's SVP & Chief Economist

14 2016 Pending Home Sales over the last 18 months

15 Buyer Traffic By State NAR

16 Seller Traffic By State NAR

17 0.4% June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May -1.1% -1.7% -1.9% -1.5% -2.2% -3.1% -3.8% -3.6% -4.7% -4.5% HOUSING SUPPLY Year-Over-Year Last 12 Months -9.6% NAR 7/2016

18 The stock of existing homes for sale declined 1.9 percent last year, to 2.1 million units. Supply stood at 4.8 months, making 2015 the fourth consecutive year that inventories held below the 6.0-month level, the conventional measure of a balanced market. - Joint Center For Housing Studies of Harvard University

19 Many owners aren t moving on from their current homes, which is holding back available inventory for both first time and move up buyers. With values on the rise, this could prove to be an ideal time to sell especially in the hot markets where owners could get more than they expected. - Bob Walters Quicken Loans Chief Economist

20 The primary driver in the increase in sales is more homeowners realizing the equity they've accumulated in recent years and finally deciding to trade-up or downsize. - Lawrence Yun Chief Economist NAR

21 Significant Equity By State CoreLogic

22 Positive Equity Share By State CoreLogic

23 The CoreLogic Home Price Index was up 5.5% year over year through the first quarter. If home values rise another 5% uniformly across the U.S., the number of underwater borrowers will fall by another one million during the next year. - Anand Nallathambi President and CEO of CoreLogic

24 Buyers looking for the most expensive homes will find slashed prices, more options and less competition. It's a much different story for entry-level buyers, who will be up against rising prices, low inventory and tough competition, with homes selling over asking price in many of the nation's hottest housing markets. - Zillow

25 Number of Homes for Sale 2016 versus 2012 by category Trulia

26 Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES by category Zillow

27 Thinking about the housing crisis that started in 2008, when many people and families defaulted on their mortgages and lost their homes, I think the housing crisis is pretty much over MacArthur Foundation

28 How Many Americans Don t Know? 54% 59% 40%???????????? Fannie Mae

29 Percentage who believe a 20% down payment is required to purchase a home Ipsos

30 The high median credit scores are due to many millennials believing they won t qualify with the score they have - and are waiting to apply for a mortgage until they have the score they think they need. - Jonas Moe Ellie Mae Senior VP

31 Consumers are cautious more than they have been in the past and thus the self-sidelining of cautious/discouraged consumers makes it appear as if credit is tightening. More consumer education such as counseling and financial literacy programs could be as or more successful in raising origination levels than introducing new lending products with lower credit standards. CoreLogic MarketPulse Report

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33 The average LTV ratio for those applying for a mortgage loan in the last three months by generation CoreLogic

34 Percentage of loan applications in previous 90-day cycle that have closed Ellie Mae

35 Have the market information in visual form and at your fingertips

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38 Average Days on the Market By State NAR

39 5,600,000 5,500,000 EXISTING 5,400,000 5,300,000 Home Sales 5,200,000 5,100,000 5,000,000 4,900,000 4,800,000 4,700,000 4,600,000 4,500,000 4,400,000 Since January ,300,000 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 NAR 7/2016

40 EXISTING Home Sales Since January Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 NAR 7/2016

41 EXISTING Home Sales Y-O-Y by region 11.6% 4.5% 3.2% 6.5% U.S. Midwest West South Northeast -1.7% NAR 7/2016

42 Total Home Sales in thousands January February March April May Freddie Mac

43 Existing Home Sales in thousands January February March April May June July August September October November December Freddie Mac

44 New Home Sales in thousands January February March April May June July August September October November December Freddie Mac

45 New Home Sales Annualized in thousands Jun-14 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-15 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-16 Feb Mar Apr May Census

46 New Home 33% Sales % of sales by price range 24% 14% 4% 9% 10% 6% Under $150K $150-$199K $200-$299K $300-$399K $400-$499K $500-$749K Over $750K Census

47 New Homes Selling Fast (median months from completion to sold) Dec Jan-15 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-16 Feb Mar Apr May Census

48 110 PENDING Home Sales since = Historically Healthy Level January 2012 January 2013 January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 NAR 7/2016

49 PENDING Home Sales since = Historically Healthy Level January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 NAR 7/2016

50 PENDING Home Sales 0.6% U.S. 0.0% West Midwest -0.2% Northeast South -0.1% -1.8% Year-Over-Year By Region NAR 7/2016

51 35% Percentage of Distressed Property Sales 10% 7% January Today Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 NAR 7/2016

52 Home Prices

53 EXISTING Home Prices Y-O-Y by region 7.7% 4.7% 5.9% 4.8% -0.1% U.S. Northeast West South Midwest NAR 7/2016

54 % Change in Sales from last year 17.1% 16.5% 15.0% by Price Range 12.0% 8.2% -1.6% $0-100K $ K $ K $ K $750K-1M $1M+ % -1.6% 8.2% 17.1% 16.5% 15.0% 12.0% NAR 7/2016

55 Case Shiller Year-Over-Year PRICE 0.1 CHANGES June 2012 January 2013 January 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 S&P Case Shiller 7/2016

56 13.2% 12.9% 12.4% 10.8% 9.3% Case Shiller Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES 20 City Composite 8.1% 6.7% 5.6% 5.7% 5.7% 5.4% 5.5% 5.0% 5.0% 4.8% 4.9% 4.9% 5.0% 5.0% 4.5% 4.3% 4.5% 4.6% 4.7% 5.7% 5.4% 5.5% 5.4% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr S&P Case Shiller 7/2016

57 Forecasted Year-Over-Year % Change in Price by State CoreLogic

58 Appraiser Home Value Opinions Compared to Homeowner Estimates Last 12 Months Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-16 Feb Mar April May Jun % Quicken Loans

59 HOUSING INVENTORY

60 Seller Traffic By State NAR

61 Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE Today January 2011 January 2012 January 2013 January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 NAR 7/2016

62 Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE Last 12 Months Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May NAR 7/2016

63 6 Months Inventory of 5.5 HOMES FOR SALE last 2 years Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-15 Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-16 Feb Mar Apr May NAR 7/2016

64 0.4% June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May -1.1% -1.7% -1.9% -1.5% -2.2% -3.1% -3.8% -3.6% -4.7% -4.5% HOUSING SUPPLY Year-Over-Year Last 12 Months -9.6% NAR 7/2016

65 Year-over-Year Inventory Levels Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJuneJuly Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May % -24% %-13% % %0.9%5.0%1.6%7.3%5.3%3.2%6.5% 6% 5.5%5.8%4.5% 6% 5.2% 5% % NAR 7/2016

66 New Home Inventory months supply Jan Feb Mar Apr May Census

67 New Home Inventory months supply Last 12 Months Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-16 Feb Mar Apr May Census

68 BUYER DEMAND

69 Buyer Traffic By State NAR

70 Foot Traffic indicator of future sales Last 12 Months June July August September October November December January 2016 February March April May NAR 7/2016

71 Foot Traffic indicator of future sales January 2015 February March April May June July August September October November December NAR 7/2016

72 Foot Traffic indicator of future sales Jul 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 NAR 7/2016

73 INTEREST RATES

74 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages from Freddie Mac Freddie Mac 7/2016

75 Mortgage Rate Projections Quarter Fannie Mae Freddie Mac MBA NAR Average of All Four Q Q Q Q N/A /2016

76 Mortgage Rates 2017 Freddie Mac 30 Year Fixed Rate Actual - Projected 2015 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 Rate Freddie Mac

77 Mortgage Credit Availability YES NO MAYBE

78 Mortgage Credit Availability Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association MBA

79 Historic Data for the MORTGAGE CREDIT AVAILABILITY INDEX (a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association) MBA

80 Average Days To Close A Loan Last 12 Months Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae

81 FICO Score Requirements Last 12 months Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-16 Feb March April May All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae

82 FICO Score 31.9% Distribution 22.1% 24.0% 8.8% 12.8% 0.02% 0.5% % All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae

83 Average FICO Score for Closed Purchase Loans by Loan Type All Loans Conventional FHA VA All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae

84 Average Back End DTI for Closed Purchase Loans by Loan Type All Loans Conventional FHA VA All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae

85 Resources Slide Slide Title Link 4 Lawrence Yun Quote /2016/06/existing- home-sal es-grow-18-percent-in-may-highest-pace-in-over-nine-years 5,11,19 JCHS Harvard Quote 6 Freddie Mac Quote 7, Year Fixed Rate 8, 76 Mortgage Rate Projections ng_forecast_ pdf esearch/mtg%20fin%20forecast% 20Jun% pdf eports/2016/em bargoes/forecast us- economic-outl ook pdf 9, 30 Ipsos Survey ess/2016/homeownershipsurvey pdf 10,28 Buying A Home is Good Investment, Is Crisis Over? ousing_m atters_national _Full_Report.pdf 12, 13 New York Fed Survey 14 David Berson Quote 15 Pending Home Sales , 39, 61,70 Buyer & Seller Traffic, Avg Days on the Market 18 Housing Inventory 20 Bob Walter Quote, Appraisal Gap n-cities-underestimate-value-appraisers-homes/ 21 Lawrence Yun Quote /2016/06/existing- home-sal es-grow-18-percent-in-may-highest-pace-in-over-nine-years 22-23, 24 CoreLogic Equity Report 25,27 Zillow Quote 24-Entry-Lev el-prices-continue-to-soar-while-top- of-the-market-stabilizes KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

86 Resources Slide Slide Title Link 26 Number of Homes For Sale 31 Jonas Moe Quote NAREE 50 th Annual Real Estate Journalism Conference 32 CoreLogic MarketPulse 34 CoreLogic LTV by Generation -age.aspx 40-42,52, Existing Home Sales Report Freddie Mac Home Sales ,67-68 New Home Sales, Inventory on/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf Pending Home Sales Report Case Shiller Price Index 58 Forecasted Price Changes -insights.aspx# Housing Inventory Foot Traffic 77 Freddie Mac Projections Mortgage Credit Availability 35, Ellie Mae Report ght-reports/ellie_mae_oir _MAY2016.pdf Ipsos Study Graphics ess/2016/homeownershipsurvey pdf 93 NAHB Graphic KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM