Analysis of Current and Forecasted Demand for Housing in North America

Transcription

1 Analysis of Current and Forecasted Demand for Housing in North America TIMBER MEASUREMENT SOCIETY Central Meeting April 9, 2015 Coeur d Alene, Idaho Delton Alderman Forest Products Marketing Unit Forest Products Laboratory - Madison, WI Northern Research Station - Princeton, WV United States Forest Service dalderman@fs.fed.us

2 Housing Overview Factors Influencing Housing Demand Housing Permits, Starts, and Completions Existing and New House Sales Construction Spending Residential Remodeling Economic Demographics Projections Threats Conclusions

3 Wood Products Consumption New Construction Wood Products Usage 18% Non-structural panels: housing Other 26% All Sawnwood: housing 82% 74% Other 36% Structural panels: housing 64% Other Source: Howard and McKeever USFS FPL

4 Wood Products Consumption Repair and Remodeling s Wood Products Usage 16% Non-structural panels: housing Other 25% 84% 75% All Sawnwood: housing Other 26% 74% Structural panels: housing Other Source: Howard and McKeever USFS FPL

5 Canada: Housing

6 Source: 4/2/15 Canadian Housing

7 Source: 4/2/15 Canadian Housing

8 Canadian Housing we continue to expect a moderation in the Canadian real estate market over 2015 and Source: 2/12/15

9 Canadian Housing Starts Range: 154, ,000 units in 2015; 148, ,000 units in , , Jan 15-Feb Single-Family Semi-Detached Row Multi-Family Total Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

10 Canadian Housing Canadian home sales and price trends are relatively stable, though tight supply and strong demand continue to fuel bigger price increases in a few high-priced markets. Low borrowing costs are maintaining affordability in the face of high home valuations. Source:

11 Canada: Housing Starts Source:

12 Canada: Housing Affordability Source:

13 Canada: Housing Starts Source: Emerging Trends in Real Estate ; Price Waterhouse Coopers and Urban Land Institute ; March 2015

14

15 North American Housing Projecting Housing Demand Housing units = Household formations plus housing units lost 2013: 425,000 household formations + 467,368 demolitions = 892,368 units Actual production: = 128,000 under build 2014: 684,750 household formations + 450,500 demolitions = 1,135,250 units Actual production: ,135 = 251,200 under build Source: US Census

16 Forecasts: 2015 (000s) Single-Family Starts Multi-Family Starts Total Starts APA - The Engineered Wood Association ,210 Core Logic ,124 Fannie Mae ,171 Forest Economic Advisors ,152 Goldman Sachs 1,166 Merrill Lynch 1,175 Metrostudy ,100 MBA ,108 NAHB ,162 NAR ,300 TD Economics 1,190 Wells Fargo ,160 Zillow 1,113

17 Source: 4/5/15

18 Source:

19 Permits Source:

20 Source:

21 Source:

22 Source: Starts

23 Source: Starts

24 Source:

25 SF starts: Six-month rolling average (unadjusted data) Jun 2012 Aug 2012 Oct 2012 Dec 2012 Feb 2013 Apr 2013 Jun 2013 Aug 2013 Oct 2013 Dec 2013 Feb 2014 Apr 2014 Jun 2014 Aug 2014 Oct 2014 Dec 2014 Feb 2015 Total 1 unit 2-4 units 5+ units Source: US Census - Construction

26 Housing Starts and Median Income Real Median Household Income SF Starts MF Starts Source: BLS

27 Housing Starts and Median Income Real Median Household Income SF Starts MF Starts Source:

28 2,000 SF starts: thousands 6-months forward LBR: $ nominal 500 1, , , , SF Starts CME LBR Futures Source: US Census & CME Group random length lumber futures

29 2,000 SF starts: thousands 3-months forward LBR: $ nominal 500 1, , , , SF Starts CME LBR Futures Source: US Census & CME Group random length lumber futures

30 Source:

31 Completions Source:

32 Source:

33 Source:

34 460, ,000 Construction Spending 650, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 60, ,000 10, ,000 Private Residental New Single-family New Multi-family Improvements Source: US Census - Construction

35 Construction Spending Imp: -31.9% since 1/ Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Private Residental New Single-family New Multi-family Improvements Source: US Census - Construction

36 50 40 Percentage change; year 2000 = baseline Jan-15 Feb Total Residential New single family New multi-family Improvements Source: US Census - Construction

37 6 Construction Spending: YOY percentage change Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb New Single-family New Multi-family Improvements Source: US Census - Construction

38 Source: 4/5/15

39 Source: US Census - Construction

40 SAAR 458 thou SAAR 539 thou Source: US Census - Construction

41 Source:

42 Source:

43 United States New House Sales Source:

44 Real Median Household Income New Sales Source: US Census Construction & BLS

45 $310,000 New SF Sales vs. Median Price 1,500 $260,000 1,300 $210,000 Bubble 1,100 $160, $110, $60, $10, New SF sold (SAAR) Median Price Source:

46 $360,000 $310,000 $260,000 New SF Sales vs. Mean Price Bubble 1,500 1,300 1,100 $210, $160,000 $110, $60, $10, New SF sold (SAAR) Average Price Source:

47 Source:

48 140 New SF sales (unadjusted): thousands 6-months forward LBR: $ nominal New SF sales CME LBR Futures Source: US Census & CME Group random length lumber futures

49 140 New SF sales (unadjusted): thousands 3-months forward LBR: $ nominal New SF sales CME LBR Futures Source: US Census & CME Group random length lumber futures

50 Source:

51 Source:

52 Source:

53 Real Median Household Income Existing Sales Price (mean) Source: US Census Construction & BLS

54 < $ % $ % $ % $ % % % > 750 % Source:

55 66% of all sales > $250, % of all sales < $250,000 < $ % $ % 10 $ % $ % $ % $ % > $750 % Source:

56 Source: and 4/2/15

57 4,940, vacation-home sales catapulted to an estimated 1.13 million last year, the highest amount since NAR began the survey in 2003 (22.8%). Increased 57.4% from Source: 4/1/15

58 Source: 3/31/15

59 Price appreciation outpaces wage growth in 76% of U.S. markets during housing recovery Source: 3/25/15

60 Household Formation & Renters Source: 3/28/15

61 Source:

62 Demographics Source: US Census

63 Housing Starts & Demographics Structural change in the housing market include: - a dramatic correction in median wealth of U.S. households as home values declined - declining home ownership rates. Source:

64 Source:

65 Source:

66 Potential Housing Threats Source: McKinsey & Company, McKinsey Global Institute, Debt and (not much) deleveraging; February 2015

67 Potential Housing Threats High debt levels, whether in the public or private sector, have historically placed a drag on growth and raised the risk of financial crises that spark deep economic recessions. Growth in global debt has shifted since 2007, with developing economies accounting for half of new debt. Source: McKinsey & Company, McKinsey Global Institute, Debt and (not much) deleveraging; February 2015

68 Potential Housing Threats three particular areas of potential concern in China: the concentration of debt in real estate, the rapid growth and complexity of shadow banking, and the off-balance sheet borrowing by local governments. Nearly half of China s debt is related to real estate. Source: McKinsey & Company, McKinsey Global Institute, Debt and (not much) deleveraging; February 2015

69 World Debt or Leverage Threats to Housing Nothing really has changed interest rates are lower; yet debt keeps increasing What s going to happen in China? Does the U.S. economy stall or decrease? Minimal increase in real medium income Increased closing costs due to new lending regulations What if there is no Eurozone recovery? Geopolitical events?

70 Conclusions Canada how will the commodity demand/price decline affect housing Most forecasts call for slightly decreasing starts through 2016 For the Canadian and U.S. housing markets to improve both economies need to advance in conjunction with increases in real median incomes United States higher priced houses appear to be the strongest sector multifamily housing as well The opportunity: houses in the $100 to $200 thousand price range The BIG question? Will the U.S. housing market continue to improve?

71 Questions? Thank you Delton Alderman Forest Products Marketing Unit Forest Products Laboratory - Madison, WI Northern Research Station - Princeton, WV USDA Forest Service dalderman@fs.fed.us