National Housing Trends

Transcription

1 National Housing Trends

2 34% America s Choice of Best Long Term Investment 26% 17% 15% 6% Real Estate Stocks / Mutual Funds Gold Savings Accounts / CDs Bonds Gallup 2018

3 Housing Affordability 197 Index 1990 to Today Years when distressed properties dominated the market National Association of Realtors

4 1,400 1,200 1, Overbuilt during Housing Boom Residential New Construction The market needs more new homes! Underbuilt Housing need since the Bust Census Bureau

5 U.S. Northeast Midwest South West -6.8% -8.7% -10.3% -10.5% EXISTING Home Sales -15.0% Y-O-Y by region NAR 1/2019

6 Appraiser Home Value Opinions Compared to Homeowner Estimates Last 12 Months Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan % Quicken Loans

7 Increase in Home Values nar.realtor

8 Projected Home Price % Appreciation Going Forward Source Home Price Expectation Survey Zelman & Associates Mortgage Bankers Association Freddie Mac National Association of Realtors Fannie Mae

9 Forecasted Year-Over-Year % Change in Price CoreLogic

10 Average Days on the Market NAR

11 Seller Traffic NAR

12 Buyer Traffic NAR

13 Foot Traffic indicator of future sales January February March April May June July August September October November December NAR 1/2019

14 Historic Mortgage Rates by Decade Decade Average Rate 1970s 8.86% 1980s 12.7% 1990s 8.12% 2000s 6.29% Freddie Mac

15 Mortgage Rate Projections Quarter Freddie Mac Fannie Mae MBA NAR Average of All Four Q Q Q Q /2019

16 Mortgage Rates Freddie Mac 30-Year Fixed Rate Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q2 - Actual - Projected Rate Q Q Q Q Q Q4 Freddie Mac

17 Increasing Mortgage Rates Make A Significant Difference In Home Affordability Amount Of Mortgage 3.5% Mortgage 30-Year Cost 5% Mortgage 30-Year Cost 8% Mortgage 30-Year Cost $200,000 $898 $323,280 $1,073 $386,280 $1,467 $528,120 $300,000 $1,347 $484,920 $1,610 $579,600 $2,201 $792,360 $400,000 $1,796 $646,560 $2,147 $772,920 $2,935 $1,056,600 $500,000 $2,245 $808,200 $2,684 $966,240 $3,668 $1,320,480 $1 million $4,490 $1,616,400 $5,368 $1,932,480 $7,337 $2,641,320

18 Greater Metro Atlanta Market February 2019 Report With Results Through January 2019

19 Metro Atlanta Closings 9000 Prior Year Current Month January Closings Down 21.6% Compared To December Closings January 2019 Closings Down 2.1% Compared To January 2018

20 Metro Atlanta Closings January 2019 (Number Of Transactions By Price) % Of Transactions In $100K-$500K Price Range < $100K $100K-$200K $200K-$500K $500K-$1 mil $1 mil - $2 Mil $2 Mil +

21 Metro Atlanta Closed Units By Price Point January 2019 Compared To January < $100K $100K-$200K $200K-$500K $500K-$1 mil $1 mil - $2 Mil $2 Mil +

22 Listed Inventory January 2012 January 2019 Residential Detached, Metro Atlanta Inventory Down 3.2% From Last Month, Up 15.7% Compared To Last Year

23 7270 Metro Atlanta New Listings New Listings Up 13.2% Compared to Last Year. Up 65.2% From Last Month.

24 Months of Inventory Change The Market Strategy LESS THAN 6 MONTHS BETWEEN 6-7 MONTHS GREATER THAN 7 MONTHS SELLERS MARKET Home prices will appreciate NEUTRAL MARKET Home prices will only appreciate with inflation BUYERS MARKET Home prices will depreciate

25 Metro Atlanta Months of Inventory (January 2019, Based On Closed Sales) 6 Months Supply Is Considered Normal Market < $100K $100K-$200K $200K-$500K $500K-1 Mil $1 Mil - $2 Mil $2 Mil + Total Metro Atlanta Months Of Inventory Is 4.6 Months

26 Metro Atlanta Monthly Average Sale Prices $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 ASP $298,000 In January. ASP $305,000 Last Month. Up 5.6% From Last January.

27 Metro Atlanta Annual Average Sale Prices $261 $268 $209 $229 $250 $266 $276 $289 $307 $298 $189 $190 $176 $ Annual ASP Up 69% From Bottom Of 2011

28 Case-Shiller Index For Metro Atlanta Jan 2010 Through Nov 2018 (Reported January 29, 2018) Home Values Up 80% From Bottom Of March 2012.

29 Case-Shiller Gain/ Loss For Metro Atlanta Comparisons Based On The Latest Case Shiller Index Compared To The Average Index For The Year Property Was Purchased. Year Property Bought Gain/ Loss Year Property Bought Gain/ Loss % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 2018 YTD 2.41% Case Shiller Index For Metro Atlanta - November 2018 As Reported January 29, Micro Local Markets And Price Points May Have Significantly Different Outcomes.

30 Case-Shiller Home Values For Metro Atlanta Recent Bottom Was March Metro Average Home Values Back To Normal Trend Line.

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32 Metro Atlanta Brokerage Rankings

33 BHHS KW-AP ATL Comm MB HNR CB AFH Annual Closed Units January 2019 FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent Information Provided By Trendgraphix and BHHS GP Internal Reports.

34 BHHS KW-AP HNR ATL Comm AFH CB MB Annual Closed Volume January 2019 FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent ($ Volume in Thousands) $205,477 $140,062 $100,226 $92,657 $89,242 $63,841 $60,734 Information Provided By Trendgraphix and BHHS GP Internal Reports.

35 Georgia Economic & Housing Trends

36 Top State For Business Site Selection Magazine 6 Years in a Row!

37 Buyers Moving To Atlanta! Here is the Top 10 List including previous rank: 1. Atlanta (1) 2. Phoenix (4) 3. Tampa/Sarasota (2) 4. Dallas/Fort Worth (3) 5. Orlando (5) 6. Denver (7) 7. Houston (8) 8. Seattle (6) 9. Las Vegas (10) 10.Chicago (9) Penske Truck Rental published their latest moving destination list and Atlanta was ranked #1 for the 6 th year in a row. The trend of moving to the sunbelt has returned. Desirable attributes that help Metro Atlanta include a business friendly environment, low cost of living for a metro area, airport, moderate weather with 4 seasons and a high quality of life.

38 Baby Boomers Are Coming To Be Close To Their Children & Grandchildren. Rank of Share Total Population Under Dallas 6,144, Atlanta 5,271, Phoenix 4,179, Denver 2,466, Riverside 4,081, Houston 5,629, Portland 2,174, Seattle 3,309, Sacramento 2,091, Washington 5,306,125 Metro 14 Atlanta 3 Has 23 The: Los Angeles 12,875, San Diego 2,974,859 #2 Population 8 14 Age San Francisco 4,203, Orlando 2,032, Minneapolis #5 Population Under 20 3,208, Chicago 9,522, New York 18,815, Boston 4,482, Cincinnati 2,134, Baltimore 2,668, Detroit 4,467, Philadelphia 5,827, St. Louis 2,802, Miami 5,413, Tampa 2,723, Cleveland 2,096, Source :Census Bureau Pittsburgh 2,355,

39 Rustbelt To Sunbelt

40 Population & Employment Growth Trends

41 Population By County Atlanta Regional Commission

42 Population & Employment Growth Trends U.S. Conference of Mayors Report predicts that Metro Atlanta will be the 6 th largest city in the nation by Metro Atlanta will grow from 5.8 million residents to 8.6 million residents. That means 2.8 million people will move to our area! This is great news for our long-term real estate values!