Real gross domestic product California vs. United States

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1 Real gross domestic product California vs. United States Percent change, year ago 6 4 U.S. California Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

2 Unemployment rate California vs. United States Percent 14 California U.S Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight.

3 Employment growth Non-farm employment, California vs. United States Percent change, year ago 4 California U.S Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight.

4 Percent gains in non-farm jobs Major metros vs. California and United States, 09/ /2012 Percent change, year ago San Francisco 2.9 San Jose 2.5 San Diego 2.1 California 1.9 Los Angeles 1.8 U.S Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's Analytics, Milken Institute.

5 Fed s accommodating policy Fed funds rate vs. 10-year bond yield Percent year T-note yield Federal funds rate Sources: Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Department of the Treasury, Moody's Analytics.

6 First-time buyer housing affordability index California Index Sources: California Association of Realtors, National Association of Realtors, Moody's Analytics.

7 Months supply of homes California vs. United States Months California U.S Sources: California Association of Realtors, National Association of Realtors, Moody's Analytics.

8 Existing single-family home sales California vs. United States Percent change, year ago 120 California U.S Sources: National Association of Realtors, Moody's Analytics.

9 Housing starts and residential permits issued California, based on 3-month moving average data Percent change, year ago Permits Housing starts Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Moody's Analytics Estimated, Milken Institute.

10 California metros with highest percent gains in prices Ranked by latest one-year change in median sales price of existing SF home Sources: National Association of Realtors, Moody's Analytics. 2012Q2 (US$, ths.) 1-year percent change 5-year percent change Santa Barbara San Jose Salinas Redding San Francisco Fresno Stockton Riverside Visalia Bakersfield

11 Foreclosure rates Loans in foreclosure at end of quarter, California vs. United States Percent California U.S Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Moody's Analytics.

12 Industrial availability rates 2012 Q3, selected California markets Percent 18 U.S. availability rate: 13.3% Central Valley Sacramento San Diego Inland Empire Silicon Valley San Francisco Peninsula Orange County Greater Los Angeles Source: CB Richard Ellis.

13 Office vacancy rates 2012 Q3, selected California markets Percent U.S. vacancy rate: 15.5% Sacramento Inland Empire Greater Los Angeles Orange County Silicon Valley San Francisco Peninsula Source: CB Richard Ellis.

14 Office space developer sentiment index for 2015 <50 marker tightening, >50 market weakening Index Silicon Valley San Francisco San Diego Orange County East Bay Los Angeles Source: Allen Matkins / UCLA Anderson Forecast.

15 Retail vacancy rates 2012 Q3, selected California metros Percent Sacramento San Bernardino /Riverside San Diego Oakland -East Bay Los Angeles San Jose Orange County San Francisco Source: ReisReport.

16 Apartment vacancy rates 2012 Q3, selected California metros Percent U.S. vacancy rate: 4.6% San Sacramento Bernardino /Riverside Los Angeles Orange County Oakland -East Bay San Francisco San Diego San Jose Sources: ReisReport, CB Richard Ellis.

17 California negative - equity mortgages Percent Negative equity share in CA Near negative equity share in CA Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: CoreLogic.

18 California borrowers: 29% underwater Percent 8 7 U.S. California % to 104% 105% to 109% 110% to 114% 115% to 119% 120% to 124% Loan-to-value 125% to 149% 150% to 224% 225%+ Source: CoreLogic.

19 California housing affordability at record highs but still trails U.S. Share of households that can buy Percent U.S California Source: California Association of Realtors.

20 US-CA prices over-shot trend line snapping back slowly US$, thousands California California price trend 100 U.S Source: California Association of Realtors.

21 Mortgage rates at 50 year lows, but credit is tight: Defensive Lending Percent FRM ARM Federal funds Source: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation.

22 Fannie & Freddie are the market Origination by product Source: LPS CoreLogic.

23 Sales of existing detached homes Seasonally adjusted and annualized, California Thousands units Source: California Association of Realtors.

24 Share of distressed sales to total sales Sep REOs 12% Short Sales 24% Equity Sales 63% Other Distressed Sales (Not Specified) 1% Source: California Association of Realtors.

25 Share of equity sales has been trending upward since early 2012 Percent Equity sales REO Short sales Source: California Association of Realtors.

26 Sales dropped in lower price segments Sales, California Percent change, year ago $0 - $200k $200 - $300k $300 - $400k $400 - $500k $500k+ Source: California Association of Realtors.

27 REO and short sales Southern California, share of total sales, Sep Percent REO sales Short sales Los Angeles Orange Riverside San Bernardino San Diego Source: California Association of Realtors.

28 Median price of existing detached homes California, Sep. 2012: $345,000, up 19.5% from year ago US$, thousands 700 P: May-07 $594, T: Feb-09 $245,230-59% from peak Source: California Association of Realtors.

29 Unsold inventory: nearing record lows California, Sep. 2012: 3.7 months Months Source: California Association of Realtors.

30 Unsold inventory index Months of supply Price range (Thousand) Sep-11 Aug-12 Sep-12 $1,000K $ K $ K $ K $0-300K Source: California Association of Realtors.

31 Tight supply of inventory, especially for REO sales Unsold inventory index, Sep Months Equity sales REO sales Short sales Source: California Association of Realtors.

32 Extremely low levels of active listings at the state level Unsold inventory index, active listing only, Sep Months Equity sales REO sales Short sales Source: California Association of Realtors.

33 Inventory remained in short supply Unsold inventory index Months Short sales 4 3 Equity sales 2 1 REO sales 0 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Source: California Association of Realtors.

34 Low inventory pushing prices upward in REOs & equity sales Percent Equity sales REO Short sales -20 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Source: California Association of Realtors.

35 The California foreclosure funnel 8.6 Million Homes 6.8 Million Mortgages 2.07 Million Underwater Source: California Association of Realtors.

36 684,000/18,000 = 38 months of Inventory 434,000 Delinquent 180,000 in Foreclosure 70,000 Bank Owned 18,000 Distressed Sales Source: California Association of Realtors.

37 California foreclosure inventories Sep Thousands units Preforeclosure Scheduled for Sale Bank Owned month average: 60 Preforeclosure: 91, Schedule for sale: 85, Bank owned: 68,690 0 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Source: ForeclosureRadar.com.

38 2012 Annual Housing Market Survey

39 Equity sales vs. REO vs. Short sales 2012 Equity Sales REO Sales Short Sales Share of total sales 64.7% 12.3% 21.7% Median home price $448,000 $185,000 $235,000 Square footage 1,750 1,500 1,600 Price / SF $243 $116 $154 Sales-to-list price ratio 97.3% 100.0% 99.9% % of sales with multiple offers 50.9% 70.8% 66.1% Avg. number of offers % of all cash sales % 26.7% Days on MLS Days in Escrow Source: California Association of Realtors.

40 Equity sales 2011 vs Share of total sales 64.7% 58.7% Median home price $448,000 $431,000 Square footage 1,750 1,783 Price / SF $243 $250 Sales-to-list price ratio 97.3% 95.9% % of sales with multiple offers 50.9% 35.2% Avg. number of offers % of all cash sales 27.3% 25.5% Days on MLS Days in Escrow Source: California Association of Realtors.

41 REO sales 2011 vs Share of total sales 12.3% 19.7% Median home price $185,000 $240,000 Square footage 1,500 1,500 Price / SF $116 $112 Sales-to-list price ratio 100.0% 98.0% % of sales with multiple offers 70.8% 58.3% Avg. number of offers % of all cash sales 43.1% 34.0% Days on MLS Days in Escrow Source: California Association of Realtors.

42 Short sales 2011 vs Share of total sales 21.7% 20.2% Median home price $235,000 $287,000 Square footage 1,600 1,600 Price / SF $154 $175 Sales-to-list price ratio 99.9% 95.9% % of sales with multiple offers 66.1% 57.5% Avg. number of offers % of all cash sales 26.7% 23.3% Days on MLS Days in Escrow Source: California Association of Realtors.

43 Demand for investment & second/ vacation homes dips slightly, but remains strong Percent Investment/Rental property Vacation/Second home % Source: California Association of Realtors. 16%

44 For those who purchased an investment property Investment to Flip Rental Property Source: California Association of Realtors.

45 Pent-up housing demand is looming Source: California Association of Realtors.

46 Housing permits improving slowly 2012(p): 52,000 units, Up 10.4% from 2011 Thousands units Household Growth: 220, ,000/yr Multi-Family Single Family P Source: Construction Industry Research Board.

47 Recovery will continue in 2013, with both sales and the median price up 700 Sales of existing detached homes (Thousands units) 600 Median price (US$, thousands) f Source: Construction Industry Research Board $335 $ f

48 Baldwin Hills Crenshaw Plaza Viktoria Apartments in Seattle North Bethesda Market

49 Shortage of workers pushes up labor costs California Thousands Average hourly earnings (R) Employees (L) US$ Source: BLS.

50 Snapshot of the fiscal cliff Change in budget deficit under current law, between fiscal year 2012 & 2013 Source: U.S. Congressional Budget Office. Revenues $billion % of GDP End of Bush tax cuts& AMT indexing End of payroll tax cut Other expiring tax cuts Start of Affordable Care Act taxes Subtotal Spending Automatic discretionary spending cuts End of emergency unemp. benefits Cut to physicians Medicare payments Subtotal Other changes in revenues and spending Total Effects of automatic stabilizers Total change

51 Fiscal cliff tax increases United States, in US$ billions Higher taxes on income below $250,000, higher estate taxes, alternative minimum tax. $279 Higher taxes on income above $250,000. $52 Expiration of Social Security tax cut. $115 Expiration of temporary tax breaks for businesses and individuals. $110 Expiration of extended unemployment benefits. $30 Defense spending cuts. $32 Across-the-board cuts to education, health, law enforcement, other programs. $53 Total $671 Sources: CBO, Tax Policy Center

52 High-income households receive sizable tax cuts from extension of "middle-income" tax cuts Average federal tax cut by adjusted gross income, 2013 Income (US$, thousands) < ,000 >1,000 $121 $756 $1,289 $1,573 $1,713 $2,198 $3,658 $5,442 $6,447 $10,504 $12,112-2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 Source: Tax Policy Center.

53 California will likely be hit hardest by fiscal cliff s cuts California will shed nearly a quarter of a million jobs (135,000 from defense cuts alone), lose over $11 billion dollars in income and see its Gross State Product drop by $22.6 billion. Source: Huffington Post cited from The Economic Impact of the Budget Control Act of 2011 on DOD &non-dod Agencies, Stephen S. Fuller (University Professor and Director of Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University; July 17, 2012)..

54 Proposition 30 s impact on personal income tax rates Married filers Prop 30 Income bracket Before After $96,058-$500, % 9.3% $501,000-$600, % 10.3% $601,000-$1,000, % 11.3% > $1,000, % 13.3% Sources: Tax Foundation, California Department of Finance.

55 California benefits most from mortgage interest deduction California ranked highest in average deduction among deducting returns, $18,876, and also highest among all returns, $5,520. But had a lower percentage of tax returns claiming the deduction. About three in ten deducted mortgage interest (19th highest nationwide). Source: Tax Foundation.