California Housing Market Update. Monthly Sales and Price Statistics November 2018

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1 California Housing Market Update Monthly Sales and Price Statistics November 2018

2 Home Sales: Largest Decline Since 2014 California, November 2018 Sales: 381,400 Units, -4.6% YTD, -13.4% YTY 700, , , , , , ,000 - Nov-17: 440,340 Nov-18: 381,400 SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized

3 CA Home Sales: Declining Trend 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg) -25% Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized

4 YoY % chg. Bay Area Sales: Double-Digit Decline 30% Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area) 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -11.5% -30% SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized

5 So CA Home Sales Off Double-Digits YoY % chg. 40% So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA) 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -10.3% -30% SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized

6 Central Valley Sales: Declining Trend YoY % chg. 30% Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley) 20% 10% 0% -2.7% -10% -20% -30% SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized

7 November 2018 (Year-to-Year) 0% Sales Declined in All Price Segments -5% -10% -15% -13.1% -6.5% -9.1% -6.4% -10.5% -8.0% -11.7% -20% -25% -21.9% SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes

8 YTY Home Price Gains Moderating California, November 2018: $554,760, -3.0% MTM, +1.5% YTY $700,000 $600,000 P:May-07 $594,530 Nov-17: $546,820 Nov-18: $554,760 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 T: Feb-09 $245,230-59% from peak $200,000 $100,000 $- SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

9 YTY% Chg. in Price Prices Growth Slowing 50% 40% 30% Condo Single-Family Homes 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes

10 Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 Oct-18 Median Price Condo/Townhome Median Price Leveling Off $600,000 Condo $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 Nov-17: $451,250 Nov-18: $465,770 $200,000 $100,000 $0 SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes

11 CA Median Price Monthly Change 15% Month-to-Month % Chg 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

12 Evidence of Softening Prices at Upper End 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 2.2% California Year-Over-Year Price Growth by Quintile (November 2018) 1.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% -0.5% -0.5% -0.7% -2.5% -2.3% Quintile SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

13 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 YTY% Chg. in Price 60% List Price Suggests a Bounce Back in Sales Price Growth in the Near Term California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth Sales Price Growth Lags List Price Growth by 4-6 months 40% 20% 4.7% 0% -20% 0.2% -40% -60% Listing Price Sales Price SERIES: Sales Price Growth and List Price Growth of Existing Single Family Homes

14 1/1/2010 4/1/2010 7/1/ /1/2010 1/1/2011 4/1/2011 7/1/ /1/2011 1/1/2012 4/1/2012 7/1/ /1/2012 1/1/2013 4/1/2013 7/1/ /1/2013 1/1/2014 4/1/2014 7/1/ /1/2014 1/1/2015 4/1/2015 7/1/ /1/2015 1/1/2016 4/1/2016 7/1/ /1/2016 1/1/2017 4/1/2017 7/1/ /1/2017 1/1/2018 4/1/2018 7/1/ /1/ % Listings Have Price Reductions Share of Listings with Price Reduction: 42.5%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.4% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% California Reduced-Price Listings 42.5% 4.4% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Share Reduced Median Reduction SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes

15 PRICE PER SQ. FT. Price Per Square Flat MTM November 2018: $282, Down 0.0% MTM, Up 1.8% YTY $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 Nov-17: $277 Nov-18: $282 SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes

16 Sales-to-List Price Ratio Sales-to-List Price Ratio Dropping November 2018: 97.9%, -0.2% MTM, -1.0% YTY 100% Nov-17: 98.9% Nov-18: 97.9% 98% 96% 94% 92% 90% SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes

17 Biggest Drop at High End 100.5% California Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Quintile 100.0% 99.8% 99.9% 99.5% 99.0% 99.4% 99.2% 99.0% 99.0% 99.1% 99.3% 98.5% 98.0% 97.9% 97.5% 97.0% 96.5% Nov-17 Nov-18 SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes

18 DAYS ON MARKET Time on Market Up as the Market Slows November 2018: 28.0 Days SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes

19 Median Time on Market by Percentile California Median Time on Market by Quintile Nov-17 Nov-18 SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes

20 Inventory Index on the Rise November 2017: 2.9 Months; November 2018: 3.7 Months Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

21 Active Listings Up 8 th Consecutive Month Year-over-Year % Chg 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% 31.0% SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes

22 Listings Up Across the Board, Except Under $200K Nov 2018 Active Listings 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 18.8% 36.3% 52.6% 40.4% 29.1% 9.7% 31.0% 0% -10% -4.7% SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

23 Inventory Growing as Sales Fall 9.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

24 Active Listings Active Listings Increased in All Regions 35,000 30,000 Nov-17 33,033 Nov-18 25,000 22,489 20,000 15,000 10,000 6,288 9,063 11,119 5,000 3,702 2,207 2,542 0 San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley Central Coast SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

25 Year-to-Year % Chg Active Listings Increased in All Regions Nov % 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 70% -12% -10% San Francisco Bay Area Sales 47% Active Listings 23% -3% -3% 15% Southern California Central Valley Central Coast SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

26 Inventory Index Highest at Upper End 12 California Unsold Inventory Index by Segment Nov-17 Nov-18 SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

27 56,126 Listings in Nov vs. 42,841 Last Year 70,000 California Active Listings by Month 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,