MARKET OUTLOOK FOR SAN MATEO

Transcription

1 MARKET OUTLOOK FOR SAN MATEO Jonathan Smoke Chief Economist August 2, 2016

2 NATIONAL TRENDS 2

3 JOB CREATION REBOUNDED IN JUNE 229,000 jobs created by month in 2015; 172,000 average this year Employment and Unemployment Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate 150, , , , , , , Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Thousands

4 BEST SPRING IN A DECADE Sales continued to grow in June; up 3% year-over-year Existing Home Sales and Prices EHS SAAR Med Exist Home Price 8,000,000 $300,000 7,000,000 $250,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 $200,000 4,000,000 $150,000 3,000,000 $100,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 $50,000 0 $0 Source: National Association of REALTORS Existing Home Sales Report

5 INVENTORY HAS BEEN A CONSTRAINT 46 straight months of existing home supply below normal Months' Supply of Homes for Sale Existing New Source: National Association of REALTORS, Commerce Department

6 NEW CONSTRUCTION BUMPY Starts up 11% in 2015; down 2% in June over last year (SF +13%) Residential Construction Single-Family Starts Multi-Family Starts 2,500 2,000 Thousands 1,500 1, Source: Commerce Department 6

7 HOME PRICE RECOVERY VARIES Markets not recovered face the most existing inventory challenges Source: Realtor.com 7

8 SOLID JUNE FOR NEW CONTRACTS Seasonally adjusted pace of sales +1% y/y for pending, +25% new Home Sales (New Contracts) SAAR Pending Home Sales (Existing) New Home Sales ,600, ,400, ,200, ,000, , , , , Source: National Association of REALTORS, Commerce Department

9 TIGHT INVENTORY QUICKENS PACE Inventory grew 3% in June but median age remained flat Listings and Median Age of Inventory Listings Median Age of Inventory 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 - Source: Realtor.com

10 LISTING PRICES GREW 7% Y/Y IN JUNE Median list price increases are widespread June 2016 Source: Realtor.com 10

11 RENTS CONTINUE TO OUTPACE PRICES Asking rents up 9% y/y in June compared to list prices up 7% National Home Price and Rent Trends Median Existing List Price Median Asking Rent $2,000 $270,000 $1,900 $250,000 $1,800 $230,000 $1,700 $210,000 $1,600 $190,000 $1,500 $170,000 $1,400 $150,000 $1, Source: Realtor.com and Altos Research 11

12 RENTS RISING Y/Y IN 76% OF COUNTIES Rent increases adding to demand for buying 2016 Source: Realtor.com Analysis of HUD Median Market Rents 12

13 CHEAPER TO BUY IN 65% OF COUNTIES Simple monthly cost analysis favors buying 2016 Source: Realtor.com Analysis of HUD Median Rents, Nielsen Pop-Facts Demographics and Realtor.com Data 13

14 THE AFFORDABLE ERA ISN T OVER Low rates continue to enable incredible affordability Affordability and Mortgage Rates Housing Affordability Index Composite (Left Axis) Average 30-Year Conforming Rate (%, Right Axis) May Jun Jan-71 Feb-72 Mar-73 Apr-74 May-75 Jun-76 Jul-77 Aug-78 Sep-79 Oct-80 Nov-81 Dec-82 Jan-84 Feb-85 Mar-86 Apr-87 May-88 Jun-89 Jul-90 Aug-91 Sep-92 Oct-93 Nov-94 Dec-95 Jan-97 Feb-98 Mar-99 Apr-00 May-01 Jun-02 Jul-03 Aug-04 Sep-05 Oct-06 Nov-07 Dec-08 Jan-10 Feb-11 Mar-12 Apr-13 May-14 Jun-15 Source: Moody s Analytics, Freddie Mac, and National Association of REALTORS

15 CONFIDENCE IS STRONG Consumer confidence rebounded in June despite election concerns Consumer Confidence and Plans to Purchase a Home Consumer Confidence Index Plans to Purchase % % % 7.0% % % % % 2.0% % 0 0.0% Source: The Conference Board, Moody s Analytics 15

16 DEMAND DRIVERS 16

17 DEMOGRAPHICS SET THE TABLE When viewed by age, importance of Millennials becomes clearer 5,000 4,500 US Population by Age, End of million 84 million 61 million 79 million 36 million Z Millennial X Boomer 4,000 3,500 Thousands 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Source: Realtor.com Analysis of US Census Bureau Population Estimates (2015) 17

18 MILLENNIAL OWNERSHIP VARIES Strong correlation with affordable markets Source: Nielsen Demographics PopFacts 2016, Realtor.com Analysis 18

19 EMPLOYMENT BEGETS OPPORTUNITY 916,000 jobs created in last 12 months for year olds Year-Over-Year Gains in Civilian Employment 4.0% Civilian Employment Employment 3.0% 2.0% 30% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% 26% 13% 33% 25% 13% 32% -6.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Realtor.com Analysis 19

20 BOOMERS KEEP DISTURBING Boomer wave is causing a major population shift 400,000,000 Population by Age (US) Under ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 15% 26% Over the next 5 years: Population grows 4% 17% 13% 13% 65+ grows 18% grows 5% 25% 150,000, ,000,000 13% is flat grows 1% 13% 50,000,000 33% Under 25 grows 1% 32% Source: Nielsen Demographics Pop-Facts

21 WE COULD DO 21

22 CREDIT ACCESS REMAINS TIGHT Credit access down 2 % year-over-year in June; down 7% since Oct 1000 Mortgage Credit Availability Index Mar-2012= % % 25% % 13% % 32% Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Haver Analytics 22

23 CREDIT METRICS MOVED UP In June the average FICO score on a closed mortgage was 726 Average FICO Scores US and By Mortgage Type FICO Population Distribution (Apr 2015) US All Closed Loan Conv Purch FHA Purch VA Purch % 13% 33% % Source: Ellie Mae and Fair Isaac Corporation 23

24 IMPEDIMENTS TO PURCHASE Biggest issues for buyers are supply- and time-related What's Getting in the Way of Making a Home Purchase? Serious First-Time All Buyers Having difficulty qualifying for a mortgage Currently on a lease Can't sell current home 30% I owe more on my current home than it is worth Lack enough funds for down payment 26% Need to improve credit score Haven't decided on a specific neighborhood/town 13% Just starting to explore Always overbid by other buyers 33% Cannot find a good house in my budget range 25% 13% 32% Have not yet found a house that meets my needs 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% 50.00% Source: Realtor.com Survey of Buyer Traffic, June

25 2016 CURRENT FORECAST Key economic and housing metrics from NAR and realtor.com National Association of REALTORS Macro Forecast: GDP grows 1.6% Nonfarm payroll employment grows 1.6% Unemployment declines to 4.8% realtor.com housing forecast: Existing home prices appreciate 6% Existing home sales grow 3% to 5.43 million New home sales grow 13% to 567,000 Housing starts increase 6% to 1.17 million 30-year fixed conforming rate ends 2016 at 3.9% 25

26 LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION 26

27 JOBS AT RECORD HIGHS Unemployment rate down substantially near record lows Employment and Unemployment Rate in San Francisco MSA Total Nonfarm Employment (SA) Unemployment Rate (% SA) 2,500, ,000, ,500, ,000, , Jan-90 Sep-90 May-91 Jan-92 Sep-92 May-93 Jan-94 Sep-94 May-95 Jan-96 Sep-96 May-97 Jan-98 Sep-98 May-99 Jan-00 Sep-00 May-01 Jan-02 Sep-02 May-03 Jan-04 Sep-04 May-05 Jan-06 Sep-06 May-07 Jan-08 Sep-08 May-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 May-13 Jan-14 Sep-14 May-15 Jan-16 Source: BLS, Moody s Analytics 27

28 NEW CONSTRUCTION MIXED Starts up 12% compared to last year in May, but SF -24% New Construction Starts in San Francisco MSA Single-family (SA) Multi-family (SA) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Jan-90 Aug-90 Mar-91 Oct-91 May-92 Dec-92 Jul-93 Feb-94 Sep-94 Apr-95 Nov-95 Jun-96 Jan-97 Aug-97 Mar-98 Oct-98 May-99 Dec-99 Jul-00 Feb-01 Sep-01 Apr-02 Nov-02 Jun-03 Jan-04 Aug-04 Mar-05 Oct-05 May-06 Dec-06 Jul-07 Feb-08 Sep-08 Apr-09 Nov-09 Jun-10 Jan-11 Aug-11 Mar-12 Oct-12 May-13 Dec-13 Jul-14 Feb-15 Sep-15 Apr-16 Source: Commerce Department, Moody s Analytics 28

29 MEDIAN SALES PRICE $1.1 million, up 4% year-over-year in San Mateo (May 2016) Source: Realtor.com 29

30 LIST PRICES KEEP MOMENTUM List prices still up 5% year-over-year in San Mateo (June 2016) Source: Realtor.com 30

31 FOCUS ON SAN MATEO COUNTY 1/4 of zips seeing 20%+ price growth Y/Y (June 2016) Source: Realtor.com 31

32 AGE OF INVENTORY Inventory moving 15% slower Y/Y in San Mateo (June 2016) Source: Realtor.com 32

33 HOTTEST MARKETS Q San Mateo ranked #46 out of 1000 largest counties in US Source: Realtor.com Q Market Hotness Report. 33

34 FOCUS ON SAN MATEO COUNTY 10 zips in county ranked in the top 10% nationally (Q2 2016) Source: Realtor.com Q Market Hotness Report. 34

35 FOCUS ON SAN MATEO COUNTY Dominant age group by zip code (Spring 2016) Source: Realtor.com Generational Propensity Report Spring

36 FOCUS ON SAN MATEO COUNTY Interest by age group (Spring 2016) Source: Realtor.com Generational Propensity Report Spring

37 BOOMERS AND KIDS! Key millennial home buying age in decline 7,000,000 Population by Age (San Mateo) Under ,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 15% 29% 13% Over the next 5 years: 17% 13% Population grows 6% 14% 65+ grows 21% grows 9% grows 2% declines 8% 28% 11% 1,000,000 29% Under 25 grows 6% 29% Source: Nielsen Demographics Pop-Facts

38 HOTTEST HOMES LAST 60 DAYS Hottest homes get 3-6 times more views than metro average 38

39 RENT VS BUY Relative to income, 2X cheaper to rent in San Mateo Source: Realtor.com Analysis of Nielsen Pop-Facts Demographics, HUD Median Rents and Realtor.com Data 39

40 RENTS RISING Rents up 9% year-over-year in San Mateo Source: Realtor.com Analysis of HUD Median Rents 40

41 HOME OWNERSHIP VARIES GREATLY Overall home ownership rate in county is 60% Source: Nielsen Demographics Pop-Facts

42 MILLENNIAL OWNERSHIP home ownership rate in county is 27% Source: Nielsen Demographics Pop-Facts

43 HOUSEHOLD GROWTH /3 of zips expected to see 5%+ growth in the next five years Source: Nielsen Demographics Pop-Facts

44 Jonathan Smoke Chief Economist Access market data, research, and presentations at research.realtor.com 44