Market Analysis for Retail Real Estate

Transcription

1 Market Analysis for Retail Real Estate Gary M. Ralston, CCIM, SIOR, CPM, CRE, CLS, CDP, CRX, FRICS Coldwell Banker Commercial Saunders Ralston Dantzler Realty Lakeland, FL

2 Gary Ralston Gary M. Ralston, CCIM, SIOR, SRS, CPM, CRE, CLS, CDP, CRX, FRICS is a managing partner of Coldwell Banker Commercial Saunders Ralston Dantzler Realty, LLC the premier commercial services provider in Central Florida (Polk County). He is a recognized subject matter expert on retail and commercial properties. His experience includes the complete spectrum of commercial real estate services. In addition, he is a successful real estate developer, investor and group investment sponsor. From the early 1990s through 2004 Gary was the president and a member of the board of directors of Commercial Net Lease Realty, Inc. (NYSE:NNN) the industry leader in single-tenant corporate net-leased real estate. During that time he guided the company's growth from less than $15 million in real estate assets to over $1.5 billion. Gary holds the Certified Commercial Investment Member (CCIM), Society of Industrial and Office Realtors (SIOR), Specialist in Real Estate Securities (SRS), Certified Property Manager (CPM), Counselor of Real Estate (CRE), Certified Leasing Specialist (CLS), Certified Development, Design and Construction Professional (CDP), Certified Retail Property Executive (CRX) and Fellow of the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (FRICS) professional designations. He is also a Florida licensed real estate broker and certified building contractor. Gary is a senior instructor for the CCIM Institute and a member of the board of directors of the CCIM Institute and CCIM Technologies, Inc. He is a Past President of the Florida CCIM Chapter. Gary is a full member of the Urban Land Institute (ULI) and a former Vice Chairman of the Small Scale Development Council. He is a member of the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and an instructor for the ICSC University of Shopping Centers at Wharton, the ICSC Executive Learning series and RECon Academy. Gary holds a Masters in Real Estate and Construction Management from the Franklin L. Burns School of Real Estate and Construction Management at the University of Denver. In 2007 he was named an adjunct faculty member at the University of Denver, in 2011 he was named an adjunct faculty member at Florida Southern College and in 2013 Gary was named an adjunct faculty member at the University of Florida. He is the co-chair of the Florida Southern College real estate conference. Gary was inducted as a Hoyt Fellow ( in He is a member of the Regional Economic Information Network of the Jacksonville Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Gary is recognized as the second most accredited commercial real estate professional in the Nation. SAUNDERS RALSTON DANTZLER

3 CCIM Real Estate Feasibility Model Market (Demand/Supply) Analysis Financial Analysis Site in search of User User in search of Site Goals and Objectives Alternatives/Decision Criteria Go/No Go Decision Points Location, Site & Building Analysis Political & Legal Analysis

4 Real estate is space for people. Space for people to: live in work in shop in, and store things in.

5 The 15 Fastest Growing States Geographic Area Population Estimate (as of July 1) % United States 309,346, ,718, ,102, ,427, ,907, ,418,820 2,511, % 1.Texas 25,244,363 25,654,464 26,089,741 26,500,674 26,979,078 27,469, , % 2.Florida 18,849,890 19,105,533 19,352,021 19,594,467 19,905,569 20,271, , % 3.California 37,334,079 37,700,034 38,056,055 38,414,128 38,792,291 39,144, , % 4.Georgia 9,713,454 9,812,280 9,917,639 9,991,562 10,097,132 10,214, , % 5.Washington 6,743,060 6,823,229 6,897,292 6,973,281 7,063,166 7,170, , % 6.North Carolina 9,558,979 9,651,025 9,747,021 9,845,432 9,940,387 10,042, , % 7.Colorado 5,048,254 5,119,480 5,191,731 5,271,132 5,355,588 5,456, , % 8.Arizona 6,408,208 6,468,732 6,553,262 6,630,799 6,728,783 6,828,065 99, % 9.South Carolina 4,635,894 4,672,733 4,721,341 4,768,498 4,829,160 4,896,146 66, % 10.Oregon 3,837,972 3,868,509 3,899,444 3,928,030 3,971,202 4,028,977 57, % 11.Virginia 8,025,787 8,110,783 8,193,374 8,267,875 8,328,098 8,382,993 54, % 12.Nevada 2,703,440 2,718,819 2,754,874 2,790,366 2,838,281 2,890,845 52, % 13.Tennessee 6,356,585 6,398,408 6,455,469 6,496,130 6,547,779 6,600,299 52, % 14.Utah 2,775,426 2,816,440 2,856,343 2,903,685 2,944,498 2,995,919 51, % 15.New York 19,402,920 19,523,202 19,606,981 19,691,032 19,748,858 19,795,791 46, % CA, TX & FL are 27.0% of US population but accounted for 48.1% of growth FL is 6.3% of US population and accounted for 14.6% of growth FL is growing 2.3 times the rate of the US 1,002 people per day I 4 corridor (Orlando, Tampa & Lakeland MSAs) was over 35% of Florida s growth More people means more demand for real estate Gary Ralston, CCIM, SIOR, CPM, CRE, CLS, CDP, CRX, FRICS Gary@SRDcommercial.com

6 Census Quick Facts

7 Polk Cities Benchmark Demographics Lake Alfred Fort Meade Auburndale Lake Wales Bartow Haines City Winter Haven Lakeland Polk County Florida USA Population Population estimates, July 1, ,271, ,418,820 Population estimates, July 1, ,253 5,869 14,518 15,140 18,420 22,072 36, , ,638 19,893, ,857,056 Population, Census, April 1, ,015 5,626 13,507 14,225 17,298 20,535 33,874 97, ,095 18,801, ,745,538 AVG Annual % Change, 2010 to % 0.89% 1.76% 1.55% 1.53% 1.72% 1.74% 1.18% 1.27% 1.36% 0.78% Age and Sex Persons under 5 years % 7.30% 7.40% 6.60% 7.00% 7.60% 8.80% 6.50% 6.20% 5.90% 5.50% 6.20% Persons under 18 years % 25.20% 25.60% 25.50% 23.80% 25.80% 28.00% 22.30% 21.00% 22.80% 20.40% 23.10% Persons 65 years + over % 16.10% 19.00% 13.90% 23.00% 14.80% 15.00% 22.30% 20.70% 19.50% 19.10% 14.50% Female persons % 51.10% 50.70% 51.70% 52.60% 53.00% 50.60% 53.70% 53.10% 51.00% 51.10% 50.80% Race and Hispanic Origin White alone % 71.30% 68.30% 80.00% 65.00% 67.60% 53.40% 64.70% 70.80% 79.70% 77.80% 77.40% Black or African American % 17.50% 18.20% 12.80% 27.50% 23.70% 27.50% 27.70% 20.90% 15.70% 16.80% 13.20% American Indian and Alaska Native % 0.40% 0.50% 0.40% 0.50% 0.30% 0.50% 0.30% 0.30% 0.60% 0.50% 1.20% Asian % 1.70% 0.30% 1.20% 0.80% 1.10% 1.40% 2.00% 1.80% 1.90% 2.80% 5.40% Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander % 0.00% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.20% Two or More Races % 2.20% 1.90% 2.20% 2.20% 2.50% 2.70% 2.30% 2.70% 2.00% 2.00% 2.50% Hispanic or Latino % 16.00% 26.10% 13.10% 15.60% 14.70% 38.90% 11.00% 12.60% 19.60% 24.10% 17.40% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino % 63.10% 54.20% 71.70% 55.00% 59.10% 31.80% 58.10% 63.10% 62.10% 55.80% 62.10% Population Characteristics and Housing Veterans, ,208 1,250 1,059 2,945 8,746 50,885 1,538,636 20,700,711 Foreign born persons, % % 10.00% 11.00% 8.90% 4.90% 22.10% 10.80% 8.70% 10.10% 19.60% 13.10% Housing Housing units, ,169 2,453 5,670 6,900 7,130 9,076 17,037 48, ,730 9,144, ,957,180 Owner occupied housing unit rate, % 69.00% 65.80% 57.60% 63.70% 60.10% 58.50% 55.30% 69.60% 66.10% 64.40% Median value of owner occupied housing units, $101,200 $71,100 $115,900 $108,300 $95,200 $98,700 $100,300 $109,700 $107,100 $156,200 $175,700 Median selected monthly owner costs w/mortgage, $1,189 $1,104 $1,313 $1,145 $1,226 $1,172 $1,194 $1,222 $1,217 $1,480 $1,522 Median selected monthly owner costs w/o mortgage, $493 $359 $374 $454 $426 $422 $422 $440 $397 $469 $457 Median gross rent, $868 $867 $855 $735 $777 $809 $811 $868 $870 $998 $920 Building permits, ,559 84,075 1,046,363 Families and Living Arrangements Households, ,671 1,840 4,633 5,497 5,847 6,769 13,907 39, ,556 7,217, ,211,092 Persons per household, Living in same house 1 year ago % 0.77% 90.40% 84.00% 74.80% 81.70% 87.70% 81.60% 79.30% 83.70% 83.70% 85.00% Language other than English spoken at home % 14.60% 26.00% 18.50% 19.70% 11.40% 45.60% 18.50% 14.30% 19.30% 27.80% 20.90% Education High school graduate or higher, % age 25 Yrs+, % 78.10% 81.00% 78.90% 82.70% 71.90% 83.30% 87.60% 83.10% 86.50% 86.30% Bachelor's degree or higher, % age 25 Yrs+, % 12.00% 14.50% 19.20% 17.00% 14.30% 16.90% 24.70% 18.60% 26.80% 29.30% Health With a disability, under age 65 Yrs, %, % 8.10% 11.70% 9.60% 11.60% 7.70% 9.80% 10.50% 10.50% 8.50% 8.50% Persons without health insurance < age 65 Yrs % 26.50% 22.60% 23.10% 19.70% 17.20% 35.10% 24.40% 18.50% 23.80% 20.10% 12.00% Economy In civilian labor force, total, % age 16 years+, % 58.80% 60.90% 53.30% 56.30% 56.80% 53.40% 54.60% 55.90% 59.20% 63.50% In civilian labor force, female, % age 16 years+, % 50.00% 52.40% 50.00% 52.50% 50.90% 49.00% 49.80% 51.60% 55.00% 58.70% Total accommodation and food services sales, 2007 ($1,000) $19,905 $32,893 $33,555 $23,129 $69,952 $261,091 $699,617 $41,922,059 $613,795,732 Total health care & social assistance, 2007 ($1,000) $3,857 $31,922 $113,898 $177,006 $29,635 $613,452 $1,330,581 $2,613,713 $102,029,316 $1,668,276,808 Total manufacturers shipments, 2007 ($1,000) $568,210 $1,145,684 $279,238 $1,001,515 $7,178,034 $104,832,907 $5,319,456,312 Total merchant wholesaler sales, 2007 ($1,000) $37,040 $502,694 $165,398 $66,840 $57,863 $205,695 $10,346,834 $13,241,719 $221,641,518 $4,174,286,516 Total retail sales, 2007 ($1,000) $59,682 $264,123 $514,993 $430,408 $252,503 $667,524 $2,250,085 $6,420,144 $262,341,127 $3,917,663,456 Total retail sales per capita, 2007 $10,410 $19,302 $36,418 $25,572 $13,574 $20,600 $24,334 $11,195 $14,353 $12,990 Transportation Mean travel time to work (minutes), Income and Poverty Median household income (in 2014 $), $34,015 $42,377 $40,851 $35,785 $42,551 $33,305 $36,602 $39,238 $43,063 $47,212 $53,482 Per capita income in past 12 months (in 2014 $), $15,652 $17,805 $18,801 $17,651 $19,285 $14,839 $21,448 $22,449 $21,157 $26,499 $28,555 Persons in poverty % 31.90% 21.20% 18.90% 28.90% 22.10% 27.30% 20.90% 19.30% 18.10% 16.50% 14.80%

8 BLS Economy at a Glance

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10 Retail Interesting Facts WMT is almost 10% of US non-automotive retail sales (44, 45, less 4411) Top 100 retailers 266,580 stores Less than 15% of total number of stores Almost 50% of total US non-automotive retail sales

11 2014 Top 100 US Retailers

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15 Retail Business Life Cycle DECLINE MATURITY EXPANSION INNOVATION SALES IN $ OR VOLUME TIME

16 US Retail Sales Year Total 2006 $3,397,735,000, $3,531,986,000, $3,601,565,000, $3,394,672,000, $3,542,177,000, $3,783,417,000, $3,934,396,000, $4,042,085,000, $4,187,265,000, $4,239,368,000,000 Retail Trade & Food Services, less Auto

17 NAICS Kind of Business 2014 Retail and food services sales, total 5,271,913 Retail sales and food services excl motor vehicle and parts 4,214,375 Retail sales, total 4,700,701 Retail sales, total (excl. motor vehicle and parts dealers) 3,643,163 GAFO(1) 1,250, Motor vehicle and parts dealers 1,057, Furniture and home furnishings stores 101, Electronics and appliance stores 107, Building mat. and garden equip. and supplies dealers 328, Food and beverage stores 668, Health and personal care stores 298, Gasoline stations 533, Clothing and clothing access. stores 253, Sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores 87, General merchandise stores 663, Miscellaneous store retailers 120, Nonstore retailers 480, Food services and drinking places 571, Full service restaurants 245, Limited service eating places 256, Drinking places 22,042

18 Retail Business Trends Consumer is trading down / recession retail Wal-Mart Dollar stores Warehouse clubs

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20 Retail Business Trends Consumer is trading down / recession retail Wal-Mart Dollar stores Warehouse clubs Convenience & Value Efficiency Who took Circuit City s business? The internet??

21 Retail Trade Sales Total and E Commerce 2015 Total E commerce 1 Q 1,153,584,000 80,451,000 2 Q 1,171,458,000 84,019,000 3 Q 1,184,473,000 87,225,000 4 Q 1,184,753,000 89,078,000 Total 4,694,268, ,773, % E commerce % Not adjusted for food (NAICS 722) and auto

22 Summary Demographics 2015 Population 318,536, Households 120,746, Median Disposable Income $43, Per Capita Income $28,597 NAICS Demand Supply Retail Gap Leakage/Surplus Number of Industry Summary (Retail Potential) (Retail Sales) Factor Businesses Total Retail Trade and Food & Drink 44-45,722 $4,855,692,880,416 $4,855,692,879,787 $ ,654,834 Total Retail Trade $4,390,213,371,559 $4,390,213,371,306 $ ,880,800 Total Food & Drink 722 $465,479,508,857 $465,479,508,481 $ ,034 NAICS Demand Supply Retail Gap Leakage/Surplus Number of Industry Group (Retail Potential) (Retail Sales) Factor Businesses Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers 441 $1,001,048,457,576 $1,001,048,457,744 -$ ,402 Automobile Dealers 4411 $818,410,890,094 $818,410,890,253 -$ ,377 Other Motor Vehicle Dealers 4412 $117,770,290,369 $117,770,290,272 $ ,154 Auto Parts, Accessories & Tire Stores 4413 $64,867,277,113 $64,867,277,219 -$ ,871 Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores 442 $131,378,635,268 $131,378,634,826 $ ,048 Furniture Stores 4421 $79,889,287,978 $79,889,287,840 $ ,690 Home Furnishings Stores 4422 $51,489,347,290 $51,489,346,986 $ ,358 Electronics & Appliance Stores 443 $228,115,430,846 $228,115,430,942 -$ ,177 Bldg Materials, Garden Equip. & Supply Stores 444 $209,040,507,938 $209,040,508,826 -$ ,238 Bldg Material & Supplies Dealers 4441 $183,449,404,596 $183,449,405,259 -$ ,193 Lawn & Garden Equip & Supply Stores 4442 $25,591,103,342 $25,591,103,567 -$ ,045 Food & Beverage Stores 445 $821,154,899,957 $821,154,900,198 -$ ,930 Grocery Stores 4451 $716,061,966,803 $716,061,966,883 -$ ,152 Specialty Food Stores 4452 $58,840,409,512 $58,840,409,554 -$ ,634 Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores 4453 $46,252,523,642 $46,252,523,761 -$ ,144 Health & Personal Care Stores 446,4461 $271,681,597,230 $271,681,596,997 $ ,953 Gasoline Stations 447,4471 $295,982,777,737 $295,982,777,882 -$ ,934 Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores 448 $232,253,989,800 $232,253,989,566 $ ,061 Clothing Stores 4481 $161,025,683,336 $161,025,683,132 $ ,461 Shoe Stores 4482 $28,814,811,881 $28,814,812,259 -$ ,043 Jewelry, Luggage & Leather Goods Stores 4483 $42,413,494,583 $42,413,494,175 $ ,557 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores 451 $125,129,724,556 $125,129,724,372 $ ,401 Sporting Goods/Hobby/Musical Instr Stores 4511 $102,408,809,840 $102,408,809,749 $ ,319 Book, Periodical & Music Stores 4512 $22,720,914,716 $22,720,914,623 $ ,082 General Merchandise Stores 452 $777,975,428,782 $777,975,428,404 $ ,877 Department Stores Excluding Leased Depts $580,012,433,980 $580,012,433,787 $ ,016 Other General Merchandise Stores 4529 $197,962,994,802 $197,962,994,617 $ ,861 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 453 $197,152,569,242 $197,152,568,914 $ ,053 Florists 4531 $8,910,583,776 $8,910,583,951 -$ ,160 Office Supplies, Stationery & Gift Stores 4532 $39,338,506,534 $39,338,506,587 -$ ,048 Used Merchandise Stores 4533 $19,756,413,599 $19,756,413,151 $ ,280 Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers 4539 $129,147,065,333 $129,147,065,225 $ ,565 Nonstore Retailers 454 $99,299,352,627 $99,299,352,635 -$ ,726 Electronic Shopping & Mail-Order Houses 4541 $71,009,144,976 $71,009,145,242 -$ ,877 Vending Machine Operators 4542 $4,990,710,762 $4,990,710,635 $ ,794 Direct Selling Establishments 4543 $23,299,496,889 $23,299,496,758 $ ,055 Food Services & Drinking Places 722 $465,479,508,857 $465,479,508,481 $ ,034 Full-Service Restaurants 7221 $255,015,776,155 $255,015,775,700 $ ,063 Limited-Service Eating Places 7222 $184,599,469,755 $184,599,469,678 $ ,836 Special Food Services 7223 $9,259,595,714 $9,259,595,689 $ ,710 Drinking Places - Alcoholic Beverages 7224 $16,604,667,233 $16,604,667,414 -$ ,425

23 NAICS Kind of business 2014 Retail gross margin as a percentage of sales, total 27.7% Total (excl. motor vehicle and parts dealers) 30.4% GAFO¹ 33.9% 441 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 18.3% 4411 Automobile dealers 15.0% 4413 Automotive parts, access., and tire stores 44.4% 442 Furniture and home furnishings stores 46.7% 443 Electronics and appliance stores 30.7% 444 Building mat. and garden equip. and supplies dealers 34.5% 4441 Building mat. and supplies dealers 35.2% 445 Food and beverage stores 27.6% 4451 Grocery stores 26.9% 4453 Beer, wine, and liquor stores 28.8% 446 Health and personal care stores 29.8% 4461 Health and personal care stores 29.8% Pharmacies and drug stores 24.7% 447 Gasoline stations 12.5% 448 Clothing and clothing access. stores 45.0% 4481 Clothing stores 44.5% Men's clothing stores 51.6% Women's clothing stores 49.3% Family clothing stores 38.1% 4482 Shoe stores 46.9% 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores 42.1% 4511 Sporting goods, hobby, and musical instrument stores 42.1% 452 General merchandise stores 26.9% 4521 Department stores 33.3% Department stores 33.3% Department stores (except discount dept. stores) 37.2% Discount dept. stores 31.1% 4529 Other general merchandise stores 24.7% Warehouse clubs and supercenters 22.9% All other gen. merchandise stores 36.3% 453 Miscellaneous store retailers 47.8% 454 Nonstore retailers 39.5% 4541 Electronic shopping and mail order houses 39.0%

24 Shopping Center Characteristics

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28 2015 ICSC Research Retail SF Calculations 7,551,571,244 SF Shopping Centers 43.2% Shopping Center % 17,470,557,061 Total Retail SF 318,536,439 US population SF/person shopping centers SF/person total retail

29 CCIM Real Estate Feasibility Model Market (Demand/Supply) Analysis Financial Analysis Site in search of User User in search of Site Goals and Objectives Alternatives/Decision Criteria Go/No Go Decision Points Location, Site & Building Analysis Political & Legal Analysis

30 11,100 SF Tuffy Auto Service Center High Profile LEGOLAND Corridor Retail 6930 Cypress Gardens Boulevard, Winter Haven, FL ,000 SF local space Community Southern Bank (shadow anchor) Key intersection CVS McDonalds 7 Eleven Almost 40,000 people within 10 minutes For Lease For Lease on the way to LEOGLAND Florida David Goffe DGoffe@SRDcommercial.com Gary Ralston, CCIM

31 Market Analysis - Location Market (Demand/Supply) Analysis Financial Analysis Site in search of User User in search of Site Goals and Objectives Alternatives/Decision Criteria Go/No Go Decision Points Location, Site & Building Analysis Political & Legal Analysis

32 Regional Location Map Orlando Tampa

33 Location Map Lakeland Winter Haven

34 Hierarchy of Roads Interstate Highways limited access, parkways, tolls roads, etc. US Highways State Roads County Roads Streets

35 Location Map Lakeland Winter Haven US 17 US 27

36 10,200 cars/day Market Area/Linkages & Traffic Counts 16,100 cars/day cars/day 26,500 cars/day 19,400 11,000 cars/day 38,000 cars/day 35,000 cars/day 29,500 cars/day 11,500 cars/day 29,000 cars/day 20,500 cars/day 33,500 cars/day 6 miles 4,500 cars/day

37 Market Area 6 miles

38 Market Area/Trade Area Two Walmarts and two grocery stores means there are two trade areas 6 miles

39 LEGOLAND/Cypress Gardens Blvd Trade Area 11,500 cars/day 11,500 cars/day 29,000 cars/day Regional HQ 3 miles

40 LEGOLAND Florida/Cypress Gardens Blvd Trade Area Location of subject property Regional HQ Available 3 miles

41 Market Analysis - Demand Market (Demand/Supply) Analysis Financial Analysis Site in search of User User in search of Site Goals and Objectives Alternatives/Decision Criteria Go/No Go Decision Points Location, Site & Building Analysis Political & Legal Analysis

42 1, 2, 3 mile radius 5 & 10 min drive time

43 1, 2, 3 mile radius 5 & 10 min drive time

44 Why 1, 2, 3 mile radius Benchmark Demographics we determined that the trade area was 3 miles so the radius from the site would be about 2 miles or so. Reviewing 1 and 3 mile radius provides additional context for analyst observations and would help understand immediate area surrounding subject (1 mile radius) and any changes in characteristics between 2 and 3 mile radius. Why 5 and 10 minute drive times. 10 minutes is the standard limit of retail trade areas for most retail lines of trade. Some such as home improvement, warehouse clubs, etc. are a large trade area. 5 mile radius or even more and 15 minute or so drive time. A comparison map showing 1, 2, 3 mile radius and 5 and 10 minute drive time helps analyst to zero in on best geography to use for analysis. Determination of a more precise trade area is conducted using a target user/specific retail line of trade. For example a determination of a trade area for a drug store would look at ½ the distance to the next competing point of supply to help define the trade area geography.

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47 Trade Area Displaced Sales 11,500 cars/day Additional Retail Demand LEGOLAND Florida 1,700 employees State Farm Regional HQ 2,000 employees Carlton Arms 1,000 apartments 11,500 cars/day 29,000 cars/day Regional HQ 3 miles

48 LEGOLAND Florida, the largest LEGOLAND Park in the world, is a 150 acre interactive theme park with more than 50 rides, shows and attractions, restaurants, shopping, a breathtaking botanical garden and the LEGOLAND Water Park all geared to families with children ages 2 to 12.

49 Estimated 2 million annual visitors. 152 room 4 story hotel opened May 2015

50 Site & Building Market (Demand/Supply) Analysis Financial Analysis Site in search of User User in search of Site Goals and Objectives Alternatives/Decision Criteria Go/No Go Decision Points Location, Site & Building Analysis Political & Legal Analysis

51 Neighborhood Aerial 29,000 cars/day

52 Site Characteristics Access Multiple points of access including signalized intersection

53 Site Plan

54 Site Plan Lake Ruby Shoppes: 67 parking spaces Bank: 41 parking spaces

55 Proposed Drive Thru

56 Building Details 30 FT x 50 FT bays are very flexible and offer excellent frontage exposure No building characteristics deficiency ,500 SF

57 Floor Plan

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60 Lake Ruby Shoppes Retail Space

61 Lake Ruby Shoppes Retail Space

62 Lake Ruby Shoppes Retail Space

63 Political & Legal Market (Demand/Supply) Analysis Financial Analysis Site in search of User User in search of Site Goals and Objectives Alternatives/Decision Criteria Go/No Go Decision Points Location, Site & Building Analysis Political & Legal Analysis

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65 Sec C 3 Highway commercial. (a) Future land use classification: Commercial Retail. (b) The C 3 highway business district is intended to apply to arterial streets and trafficways where business establishments primarily not of a neighborhood or community service type may properly be located to serve large sections of the City. Such businesses generally require considerable ground area, do not cater directly to pedestrians and need a conspicuous and accessible location convenient for motorists. (c) Additional development standards: (1) Development site shall be large enough to accommodate all required parking, stormwater management and other standards and facilities. (Ord. No. O 00 09, Art. 2 ( ), ; Ord. No. O 08 42, 5, ) 34AG

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67 Legal Restrictions Contained in Lease

68 Market Analysis - Supply Market (Demand/Supply) Analysis Analysis of the competing properties in the trade area Financial Analysis Site in search of User User in search of Site Goals and Objectives Alternatives/Decision Criteria Go/No Go Decision Points Location, Site & Building Analysis Political & Legal Analysis

69 Tuffy Locations in Polk County Strategic location between other Tuffy stores in Polk

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71 Comparable Properties for Market Rent

72 1 Proposed

73 Shoppes of Cypress Landing SW of Cypress Gardens Blvd and US Highway 27, Lake Wales, FL Prop ID: ,798 SF Neighborhood Center Proposed Project rents are quoted at $18 to $24/NNN

74 2 $35/SF Proposed

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76 3

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78 Unsophisticated owner seeking above market rental rates $20/SF

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80 4

81 Parcel Map

82 Tenants

83 5

84 Parcel Map

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86 6

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88 7 Project is immediately South of former K mart.. i.e., Phase II of Winter Haven Square

89 Attachments from Xceligent

90 Former Kmart Parcel Map

91 8 55,000 SF 55,000 SF 9.8 Subject property is commercial condo as a result information is not clearly presented. Property operation and management is fragmented.

92 Parcel Map

93 Unsophis[cated owner project has been condominiumized access and exposure issues can t see shops from street Asking rent $12 to $15/SF

94 9 This is the subject property of the case study

95 6906 Cypress Gardens Blvd Parcel Map pin s_address ' CYPRESS GARDENS BLVD acres_gis sqn_htd mrkt_lnd , ,176 bldg mrkt_tot sale1_date sale1_amt o_name1 550,947 1,284,123 2/22/08 1,150,000 METEOR LLC

96 10 $15/SF

97 Parcel Map

98 11

99 Parcel Map

100 Project not visible from street fronts on Walmart parking lot has been foreclosed Out of town owner/manager Asking $15/SF

101 Comparable Rent Conclusions Existing vacant space with comparable building characteristics small bay (less than 70 FT bay depth) $15 to $20/SF Conclusion > asking price for Lake Ruby Shoppes $15/SF end cap w/drive thru $12.50/SF interior units $13.50/SF end cap You can outperform the market as to occupancy you cannot outperform the market as to rent

102 Site in Search of User Recap Finding Tenants Aggregation Contiguous or adjacent user combines current space with subject resulting in synergy increased value Gap analysis who is missing Benchmark Demographics RetailMarket Place Profile report Who is represented in market area but not trade area Trading Places... tenants already in market/trade area With inferior site characteristics (visibility, access, etc.) Need different building characteristics... larger/smaller space, less bay depth/more width Financial Lower rent/occupancy cost Potential owner vs tenant (in some situations)

103 Site in Search of User Recap Finding Tenants Aggregation Contiguous or adjacent user combines current space with subject resulting in synergy increased value Gap analysis who is missing Benchmark Demographics RetailMarket Place Profile report Who is represented in market area but not trade area Trading Places... tenants already in market/trade area With inferior site characteristics (visibility, access, etc.) Need different building characteristics... larger/smaller space, less bay depth/more width Financial Lower rent/occupancy cost Potential owner vs tenant (in some situations)

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105 Summary Demographics 2015 Population 18, Households 7, Median Disposable Income $44, Per Capita Income $29,055 NAICS Demand Supply Retail Gap Leakage/Surpl Number of Industry Summary (Retail (Retail Sales) Factor Businesses Total Retail Trade and Food & Drink 44- $299,458,492 $276,464,981 $22,993, Total Retail Trade $271,548,242 $256,723,036 $14,825, Total Food & Drink 722 $27,910,249 $19,741,945 $8,168, NAICS Demand Supply Retail Gap Leakage/Surpl Number of Industry Group (Retail (Retail Sales) Factor Businesses Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers 441 $66,246,930 $99,381,639 -$33,134, Automobile Dealers 4411 $52,812,608 $96,309,099 -$43,496, Other Motor Vehicle Dealers 4412 $9,278,623 $1,121,980 $8,156, Auto Parts, Accessories & Tire Stores 4413 $4,155,698 $1,950,560 $2,205, Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores 442 $8,412,032 $0 $8,412, Furniture Stores 4421 $4,940,660 $0 $4,940, Home Furnishings Stores 4422 $3,471,372 $0 $3,471, Electronics & Appliance Stores 443 $11,135,892 $863,528 $10,272, Bldg Materials, Garden Equip. & 444 $12,906,211 $3,160,378 $9,745, Bldg Material & Supplies Dealers 4441 $11,189,461 $1,367,038 $9,822, Lawn & Garden Equip & Supply Stores 4442 $1,716,750 $1,793,340 -$76, Food & Beverage Stores 445 $49,423,669 $49,593,184 -$169, Grocery Stores 4451 $43,796,518 $47,863,349 -$4,066, Specialty Food Stores 4452 $3,575,663 $1,729,835 $1,845, Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores 4453 $2,051,489 $0 $2,051, Health & Personal Care Stores 446,44 $16,989,896 $12,084,800 $4,905, Gasoline Stations 447,44 $19,289,857 $2,971,550 $16,318, Clothing & Clothing Accessories 448 $13,868,161 $3,200,769 $10,667, Clothing Stores 4481 $9,966,498 $2,464,636 $7,501, Shoe Stores 4482 $1,702,431 $0 $1,702, Jewelry, Luggage & Leather Goods 4483 $2,199,232 $736,133 $1,463, Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music 451 $6,520,272 $1,131,198 $5,389, Sporting Goods/Hobby/Musical Instr 4511 $4,780,074 $1,131,198 $3,648, Book, Periodical & Music Stores 4512 $1,740,198 $0 $1,740, General Merchandise Stores 452 $47,390,047 $81,587,195 -$34,197, Department Stores Excluding Leased 4521 $34,326,580 $78,242,414 -$43,915, Other General Merchandise Stores 4529 $13,063,467 $3,344,780 $9,718, Miscellaneous Store Retailers 453 $12,585,830 $2,590,482 $9,995, Florists 4531 $543,668 $117,281 $426, Office Supplies, Stationery & Gift 4532 $2,332,955 $860,431 $1,472, Used Merchandise Stores 4533 $1,104,177 $164,991 $939, Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers 4539 $8,605,030 $1,447,780 $7,157, Nonstore Retailers 454 $6,779,444 $0 $6,779, Electronic Shopping & Mail-Order 4541 $5,280,754 $0 $5,280, Vending Machine Operators 4542 $156,106 $0 $156, Direct Selling Establishments 4543 $1,342,584 $0 $1,342, Food Services & Drinking Places 722 $27,910,249 $19,741,945 $8,168, Full-Service Restaurants 7221 $15,724,915 $10,753,186 $4,971, Limited-Service Eating Places 7222 $10,385,313 $8,878,610 $1,506, Special Food Services 7223 $464,907 $75,061 $389, Drinking Places - Alcoholic Beverages 7224 $1,335,114 $0 $1,335,

106 Site in Search of User Recap Finding Tenants Aggregation Contiguous or adjacent user combines current space with subject resulting in synergy increased value Gap analysis who is missing Benchmark Demographics RetailMarket Place Profile report Who is represented in market area but not trade area Trading Places... tenants already in market/trade area With inferior site characteristics (visibility, access, etc.) Need different building characteristics... larger/smaller space, less bay depth/more width Financial Lower rent/occupancy cost Potential owner vs tenant (in some situations)

107 Financial Analysis Market (Demand/Supply) Analysis Financial Analysis Site in search of User User in search of Site Goals and Objectives Alternatives/Decision Criteria Go/No Go Decision Points Location, Site & Building Analysis Political & Legal Analysis

108 Parcel Data Developer paid $1,150,000 for land and then built site and buildings investment approximately $3,000,000 pin s_address ' CYPRESS GARDENS BLVD acres_gis sqn_htd mrkt_lnd , ,176 bldg mrkt_tot sale1_date sale1_amt o_name1 550,947 1,284,123 2/22/08 1,150,000 XXXXXXXXX

109 Tuffy Lease Info

110 Tuffy Associates Corp. Tuffy Associates Corp. is a franchisor of automotive repair facilities that perform complete automotive repair, including brakes, exhaust, front end, steering, suspension, alignment, tires, air conditioning, engine diagnostics, batteries, and other automotive products and services. The Company offers franchises under two brands: Tuffy Tire & Auto Service Centers and Car X Auto Service. The company s 349 retail outlets (about 85% are franchised) have combined revenue approaching $250 million and are located in 20 states primarily in the midwestern and southeastern United States. Tuffy was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Toledo, OH. Lease is with franchisor Tuffy Associates Corp.

111 Owner APOD

112 Leasing Plan

113 APOD Income Statement Pro forma Assumptions: Tuffy rent as per rent roll info Local space $15/SF for end cap with drive thru $13.50 to $12.50/SF for 3 other units Vacancy & Collection 1 local space will be vacant for 6 months each year (use average rent) CAM $5.50/SF $4.50/SF Operating Expenses Fixed Expenses $26,434 $5,500 Expenses monthly Utilities water/sewer, $450 $400 $50 $30 $100 Property 5% $35

114 APOD Income Statement Pro forma Projected Rent is below market rate Increase NOI 46%

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118 Cap Rate Analysis

119 Pro forma Income Statement

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123 The Rest of the Story Leased entire building to Steak N Shake Increased loan by $300,000 and equity by $50,000 to cover drive thru (constructed by landlord) and tenant improvements, etc. Value at 7.5% cap rate = $3.3 million Investment strategy... Enjoy cash flow for next 15 years and add to estate... pass along to children

124 LEGOLAND/Cypress Gardens Blvd Trade Area 11,500 cars/day 11,500 cars/day 29,000 cars/day Regional HQ 3 miles

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126 Revised Site Plan with drive thru

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130 Annual Property Operating Data GROSS INCOME Tenant Address BLDG SF $/GLA Rent Tuffy Associates 6906 Cypress Gardens Blvd 5,100 $ , $ , $ , $ , $ , $ , Tuffy Associates 6906 Cypress Gardens Blvd $ , Steak & Shake 6912 Cypress Gardens Blvd 6, , , , Gross Potential Revenue 11, ,452 Collection Loss/Add'tl Vacancy (not applicable) Effective Rental Income/Gross Operating Income/NOI $ ,452

131 Revised Sources & Uses Sources: Equity 600,000 additional Equity 50,000 Equity total 650,000 Revised Mortgage Loan 1,950,000 Total Sources of Funds 2,600,000 Uses: Purchase of Property 2,150,000 Acquisition Costs 8,350 Leasing Costs 63,075 Loan Costs 24,525 subtotal 95,950 Additional Tenant Improvement 350,000 Reserve 4,050 Total Uses 2,600,000 Loan 1,950,000 Term Years 15 Rate 4.60% Pmt/ADS 15, ,975 NOI 247,452 ADS (180,975) Cash Flow Before Taxes 66,477 Equity 650,000 Cash on Cash 10.2%

132 Course Evaluation Please Complete Your Evaluation Now. 1. Take Out Your Smartphone or Tablet 2. Go to survey.icsc.org/2016recon 3. Select this course: Retail Real Estate Market Analysis

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134 Interest Rates and Capitalization Rates

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136 10 Year Treasury Rate year treasury rate

137 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Selected Interest Rates (Daily) H.15

138 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Selected Interest Rates (Daily) H % 10 YR UST 0.29% Inflation Indexed 10 YR 1.38% Annual Inflation 10 Yrs