Short, Medium and Long Term Demand and Supply of Housing in Hong Kong 短中長期香港樓宇供需

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1 Green Belts and Housing Supply Forum, Nov 23, CityU Short, Medium and Long Term Demand and Supply of Housing in Hong Kong 短中長期香港樓宇供需 Edward Yiu 姚松炎 Associate Director, IOFC 未來城市研究所副所長 Associate Professor, CUHK 中文大學副教授 1

2 Summary No Housing Insufficiency A Sustainable Model Demand <> Needs Supply <> Completion Long Term No. of Households Drops 2

3 Supply > Demand! Sufficient!? Year Total No. of Housing Units Total No. of Households Housing Stock Households ,111,000 1,334, , ,696,000 1,677, , ,332,000 2,114, , ,616,000 2,404, ,200 (8%) 2021* 2,936,000 2,554, ,000 (13%) 2031* 3,336,000 2,720, ,700 (18%) 2041* 3,736,000 2,823, ,000 (24%) 40,000 pa 10,000 pa

4 Why Insufficient? Population Related Natural Pop Growth Visitors (68,000 units) Expatriates / Students (10,000?) Type Est. Qty MR 100,000 Visitors 68,000 Investment Need Rehousing Need Insufficiency Vacancy (46,000 units) & Others Mobile Residents (100,000 units) Vacancy 46,000 Ex/S 10,000 Total 224,000 S - D 211,200 4

5 Long Term Housing Strategy 2013 Household Net Increase 10-year Ave Min Max 294, , ,050 Re-housing 46,300 Poor Living Conditions 74,900 Others 34,500 27,000 42,000 Total 449, , ,250 Vacant Units 20,300 19,850 20,750 Adjusted Demand 470, , ,000

6 Population and Households HK Year Population No. of Households NoH Change/Yr ,752,000 1,601,900 NoH yoy % * 2031* 2041* 6,714,300 2,054,500 45, % 7,071,600 2,359,300 30, % LTHS=29,400 7,662,000 2,554,000 19, % 8,160,900 2,720,300 16, % 8,469,000 2,823,000 10, % Sharp Decrease of NoH yoy

7 7 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% yoy_noh No. of Households Change LTHS=1.2%

8 Housing Needs 120,000 units backlog ,000 pa +5,000 pa Short Term Medium Term ,000 pa +5,000 pa ,000 pa +5,000 pa Long Term Housing Demand <> Needs 8

9 Government s Mindset Economic Growth Working Population Growth Housing Demand Growth Land Demand Growth 500,000 pers / decade 170,000 units backlog + 300,000 units / decade 350 ha / decade 9

10 A Ponzi Demography (A Population Bubble) Former United Nations demographer Joseph Chamie says, it is a Ponzi demography to achieve economic growth by increasing population. The bubble would eventually burst when population growth stalls, resulting in high debts and environmental degradation. William Pesek (2013) Singapore s Population Bubble 10

11 Sustainable Model Land and Housing Policies Livability and Sustainability 11

12 Livability v. Density HK: Very high density, but medium livability 12

13 Elasticity of Housing Demand Housing Price Affects No. of Marriage? 13

14 No. of Marriage Drops 8% in

15 Housing Price v. Fertility [1] Li, P. & Xu, J.(2012) Housing price and fertility rate, CEJ 5, 97. [2] Yi,J. & Zhang, J. (2010) House Price on Fertility: Evidence From Hong Kong, EI 48,

16 Housing Price v. Fertility Hong Kong Declining fertility rate Number of live births per woman Source: 16

17 Housing Price v. Fertility 17

18 Housing Demand (1 st Hand) 40,000 1st hand Sold Out Units (TV1) 35,000 30,000 25,000 Cumulative Sellable Units Approved to sell Units 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, * 18 Demand Range from 11,000 25,000 units pa

19 Housing Completion Total Subsidized Housing Completion Private Housing Completion Total Housing Supply * Housing Completion <> Housing Supply * * 19

20 Implications on Land Supply Case Housing Units Required Land Required (ha) Baseline Case 35,000 pa 35 pa Site area = 100,000 sf, pr = 5, sc = 20% Each floor area of each block = 4,000sf 500 sf / unit 5 blocks 8-unit per storey Total 1,000 housing Total 3,000 persons 20

21 Implication on Land Needs Include roads, etc. Say 50 ha pa ha pa Short Term Medium Term ha pa ha pa Long Term Land Demand <> Needs 21

22 Land Supply (May 2013) Developable Land Area (ha) Housing Units GIC 27 11,900 GB (1 st Batch deserted) 57 23,000 I 30 20,400 URA 4.9 4,700 Railway 33 8,700 Quarry 27 15,000 Streamline Process ,000 Total ,700 Accommodating ( ) 4-year Demand 22

23 Land Supply (Processing) Developable Land Area (ha) Kowloon East 35 MTR 90 Vacant Government Land (zoned for residential use) Rezone I to R 60 Accommodating ( ) 100,000 Households 23

24 Land Supply (Supported by the Public ) Developable Land Area (ha) Urban Renewal 50 Brownfield 800 I zoned Land (Remaining) 1,400 Accommodating ( ) 450,000 Households 24

25 More Land Supply Developable Land Area (ha) U zoned Land 600 Underground 400 Govt Land in Short Term Tenancy for Clubs 300? Military Use Land 2,750 Accommodating (2041- ) 800,000 Households 25

26 Appendixes Housing Completion No. of Transactions 2 nd Hand Housing Market Characteristics The End 完 comments are welcome. Enquiries to: ecyyiu@cuhk.edu.hk 26

27 Housing Completion Forecast Year PRH HOS Private Housing Total Housing Completion , ,400 27, , ,450 23, , ,150 24, , ,254 22, * 12,700 2,000 15,820 30, * 20,500 2,000 15,000 37, * 18,700 2,000 15,000 35,700 Source: HKHA and DevB 27

28 Housing Supply (Housing Unit Sold) Year Completion Pre-sale Consent & Assign Sold Cum. Sellable * Pending to be Appr ,900 23,804 25,694 10,246 7, ,340 11,286 20,123 4,374 10, ,410 9,234 13, , ,250 14,171 11,046 5,781 7, * 15,820 15,500 16,758 4,523 NA Ave 20,589 21,201 16,761 6,436 7,566 Buffer: Cumulative Sellable Units

29 Elasticity of Housing Demand HPI v Cum Sellable Units y = x R² = ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 29

30 No. of Transactions (1 st & 2 nd Hands) Year 1 st NoT 2 nd NoT Vacancy % HPI * Ave 23,088 49, % ,994 87, % ,046 84, % ,880 73, % ,758 46, % ,761 74,116 NA 1 st Hand Supply is New Supply

31 2 nd Hand Market is for Reallocation Only Migration 2 nd Hand Transaction Downsizing / Tenure Change Release of Vacant Units 31

32 Household Migration Moved Inter-District Move Into Private Housing Intra-District Move Into Private Housing Total No. of Household Move pa Average No. of 2 nd Hand Transactions No. of Housing Units No. of Household Move pa 193,039 36, ,879 33,176 71,784 74,116 2 nd Hand Transactions = Migration Source: 2011 Census 32

33 2 nd Hand NoT & HPI yoy 40% 30% yoy HPI (right axis) % % 20% 50.00% 10% 0.00% 0% -10% % -20% 2 nd Hand No. of Transactions Change for -30% Profit % %