Queenstown-Lakes Data REINZ SLIDE 1

Transcription

1 Queenstown-Lakes Data REINZ SLIDE 1

2 OTAGO REGION SCORECARD Net Migration (year to) Unemployment (Q3) Weekly Earnings (Median) House Prices (Median) Sep 16: 1,954 Q3 2016: 3.7% 2016: $1,054 YE Sep 16: $337k Sep 17: 2,302 Q3 2017: 3.9% 2017: $1,096 YE Sep 17: $375k Change: +18% Change: +4% Change: +11% REINZ SLIDE 2

3 Queenstown-Lakes total sales volume There are ~19,600 properties in Queenstown-Lakes TA. ~960 properties sold in Queenstown for the 12 months ending Sep 17 down - 21% on the previous year. Queenstown stock turnover for the 12 months to Sep 17 was 4.9% - higher than NZ s stock turnover (4.1%) for the same period. Sales by auction (27%) represent a moderate portion of total sales. Total sales Auction sales TOTAL SALES SALES AS % OF TOTAL STOCK YOY GROWTH (PROPERTIES) YOY GROWTH % YE Sep , % YE Sep , % % YE Sep % % REINZ SLIDE 3

4 Sales count by suburb (#) 2 year view of sales across 10 top suburbs in Queenstown-Lakes. Most of these top selling suburbs have seen a decline in sales over the past year. The following suburbs experienced greatest declines compared to the previous year: Queenstown (-31%) Lake Hayes Estate (-29%) Fernhill (-28%) Wanaka had the greatest number of sales across the TA REINZ SLIDE 4

5 Days to sell The median days to sell a property in Queenstown-Lakes over the past year was 42 days. This is six days more than the previous year. The NZ median for the same period was 35 days. Cardrona, Fernhill and Lake Hayes Estate were the fastest selling of the top 10 Queenstown-Lakes suburbs, with a median days to sell of 28, 32 and 35 days respectively. At the median, it takes 20 days longer to sell a dwelling in Queenstown than in Dunedin City, the most active TA within the Otago Region by sales count. The difference was 13 days the year prior. 35 DAYS REINZ SLIDE 5

6 Queenstown-Lakes median house prices Large increase in median house price since Sept The median Queenstown-Lakes house price in Sept 17 was $920k: $140k (18%) higher than Sept 16. $268k (41%) higher than Sept 15. Median house price for the 12 months to Sept 17 was $855k. Over the past year, the moving average of the median price has increased by 8%. 6 month moving average of median refers to average of the monthly median sales price for previous 6 month period. Sep 15 median $652k Sep 16 median $780k YE Sep 17 $855k Sep 17 median $920k REINZ SLIDE 6

7 Suburb median house prices Median house price for the 12 months to YE Sept 17 was $855k. Growth in median price for top 10 selling suburbs analysed. Jacks Point is the most expensive suburb with a median house price of $1.15m up ~$78k on the previous year. Queenstown median has increased significantly (34%). Cardrona is the most affordable of the suburbs analysed with a median house price of $320k up ~$100k on the previous year. $855k REINZ SLIDE 7

8 Sales price breakdown The graph looks at the movement of median prices against 4 price band segments: Under $400k $400 - $600k $600k - $1m $1m+ Properties in the sub $400k segment have been in strong decline since 2013 and are now almost non-existent. With properties in the $400-$600k band dropping fast as well, properties in the $600k-$1m and $1m+ bands dominate the market. $600k - $1m $1m+ $400k - $600k Under $400k REINZ SLIDE 8

9 Otago TA s House Price Indices from 2008 to 2017 REINZ House Price Index measures the changing value in the residential dwelling market. House Price Index is most resilient of all measures to effects from sample change. All Otago TA s have had an increase in the rate of growth in their HPI from the beginning of 2015, Queenstown-Lakes TA in particular. Decreasing proportion of lower value sales and the increasing proportion of higher valued sales affects the median sales price but not the House Price Index Queenstown-Lakes District moved 36% in the 3ME Sept 2016 compared to the same period one year prior, and then 10% in the 3ME Sept 2017 compared to the same period one year prior. Queenstown HPI 3 Months Ending Sept % CHANGE HPI % CHANGE RAW MEDIAN PRICE 3 Months Ending Sept % 29.8% 3 Months Ending Sept % 11.2% REINZ SLIDE 9

10 Weeks of Inventory Weeks of Inventory calculation: month end listings/month end sales / 12 x 52. Weeks of inventory reflects how long it will take to sell through existing stock. Otago weeks of inventory has stayed steady around weeks for the past 18 months. NZ s weeks of inventory has been increasing over the same period of time and in Sept 17 it was 17 weeks. New Zealand ~17 weeks Otago ~11 weeks Source : REINZ SLIDE 10

11 Population growth PEOPLE PER QUEENSTOWN-LAKES HOUSEHOLD 2.6 Queenstown-Lakes population has grown by on average 1,667 people per annum over the past 3 years. This represents a 5.3% increase per annum, compared to NZ s population growth rate of 1.9% per annum for the same period. June 16 population estimate is 34,700. Estimated Queenstown occupancy ratio (people per household) is 2.6 less than NZ s 2.7. Based on an increase of the population of 1,667, and an occupancy rate of 2.6 people, 641 extra dwellings are required per annum to support the population growth. REINZ SLIDE 11

12 Building consents - # & value Actual number of building consents over the last 3 years was in excess of estimated requirement by 885 dwellings. One of only a few locations where consent numbers are in excess of estimated required consents. The average value of new housing consents & land is higher than the Queenstown median. Average building consent + land value = $805k vs. YE Sept 17 median price $885k ($80k, or 9%, below median). Average value per sqm - $2,272. One of only a few locations where consent plus section cost is less than the median dwelling price. AVG INCREASE IN POP OCCUPANCY RATE NEW DWELLINGS REQUIRED ACTUAL BUILDING CONSENTS DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE % YE Aug 15 1, % YE Aug 16 1, % YE Aug 17 1, , % REINZ SLIDE 12

13 Building consent profile Rate of building consent growth slowed in the past year compared to the year before. Comparing YE Sept 17 to the YE Sept 16, we have also see a change in the consent mix: 66% increase in Townhouses. 14 times as many Apartments 10% decrease in Houses. Housing still accounts for the majority of 708. REINZ SLIDE 13

14 Housing Affordability for Queenstown Purchaser Median household income in Queenstown- Lakes was $73,300 in the 2013 Census vs $63,800 for New Zealand, a $9,500 difference. Housing affordability is a measure of median price divided by household income. The higher the ratio, the less affordable a place is. Queenstown housing affordability ratio has increased over the past year: 2016 = 9.6x 2017 = 10.8x For a Queenstown purchaser, properties in Clutha are below the internationally accepted level of affordability (ratio of 3). Queenstown-Lakes is a highly unaffordable area, even with the higher median incomes. NZ 7.3x REINZ SLIDE 14

15 Queenstown-Lakes Data Summary Queenstown sales count is less than 12 months ago. Sept 17 median price $140k higher than Sept 16. Median days to sell a property in Queenstown has increased over the last 12 months. House Price Index has had robust growth in the three months ending Sept 2017 compared to the same period one year prior. Housing unaffordability has increased since % $920k 42 days 10.3% 10.8x REINZ SLIDE 15