Cases Study of Town Planning in Hong Kong - NENT New Town Development

Transcription

1 A Talk To yr1 BRE, PolyU Cases Study of Town Planning in Hong Kong - NENT New Town Development Dr Edward CY Yiu 19 November 2012

2 Why NENT New Town Housing price is high, because land supply is insufficient? Developable land in HK is scarce, sacrify 5,000 farmers in NENT can accommodate 50,000 people? Agriculture has no role in HK? Development? Strategic Roles of the NDAs... support of regional development and integration with the Pearl River Delta...

3 Why NENT New Town Development? Provide 54,000 new housing flats; 40% is PRH; Population: 152,000 Zoning NENT Area (ha ha) Residential 150 V 17 GIC 91 O/GB/Road 346 Total 787

4 Kwu Tung North NDA Zoning NENT Area (ha ha) Residential 73 GIC 46 O/GB/Road 209 Total 450 Res. Plot Ratio: 2-5

5 Ping Che/Ta Kwu Ling NDA Zoning Area (ha) Residential 52 GIC 21 O/GB/Road 54 Total 171 Res. Plot Ratio:

6 Housing Price is NOT caused by Insufficient Land Supply! HK is not of insufficient housing units, just too expensive! Supply is more than occupation need, but less than investment need. It is Negative Real Interest Rate that makes housing price unafforable hkibor (%) inflation (%) real ir (%) hpi(yr end) Yiu, C.Y. (2010) Negative Real Interest Rate and Housing Bubble Implosion an Empirical Study in Hong Kong, Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction

7 Not Overcrowded! City Population Land Area Ave. Pop. (sq. km) Density (per per/sq. km) Chennai 4,681, ,597 Seoul 10,575, ,473 Tokyo 8,887, ,400 Beijing 11,716,000 1,368 8,562 Singapore 5,183, ,276 Shanghai 17,836,133 2,606 6,845 HK 7,108,100 1,108 6,415 Population Density Ranks Not in the Top 50

8 Not Insufficient Housing! Total Housing Units (HK Report) Housing No. of Family (Census) ,477,300 2,226,546 Vacant/Others 250,754 (10%) Population: 6,864,300 Public Rental Housing Units: 714,200 Subsidized Housing: 393,700 Private Housing: 1,369, ,601,800 2,368, ,031 (9%) 7,071, , ,800 1,463,100 Ave. Growth p.a. 24,900 28,445 > NVR(4%) 41,460 6, ,740 Housing Units > Family Nos

9 HK Development Icon - TFC Town/Farm/Countrypark (TFC) co-exist synergically, resulting in a modest population density of Hong Kong; High density development of the City - Town Plot Ratio is up to 10; The city is in close proximity to the countryparks and farms,which is unique in the world; The Hong Kong Development Style is an international renowned highly sustainable living model, and is exemplary! But, agricultural land, fish ponds and high natural value spots has been decreasing swiftly.

10 Proportion of Town/Farm/Countrypark Land Usage(HK Report) Town (Developed Land,incl. Village) Farm (Agricultural Land) [Dropped 1,100ha in the past 15 years] Countrypark Area (Ha) ,000 5,100 60,000 Proportio n (%) 23% 5% 55% A Public Consultation on the TFC Proportion is required

11 Is the NENT New Town Development Necessary? Residential Use: 167 ha (including 17 ha for village house): Govt spends $40 billion to buy land from developers; Destroy a large portion of agricultural land mostly for O/GB/Rd; just enough for 1-year housing supply; Is it justified? Why don't we use the govt vacant land first?

12 How Many Land is Required? (Incl. All Kinds of Housing) Developed Land (6.9%) Developed Housing Units Average Housing Units per ha Annual Growth in Housing Units (in the past 5-yr: ) Estimated Req. Land Supply p.a. Est. Req. Land Supply p.a. for 50,000 units Qty 7,600ha 2,601,800 units 342 units 24,900 units 73ha 150ha Ave. Plot Ratio = 2.5, Ave Unit Size = 700 sf

13 Government Vacant Land Government tells law makers on July, 1, 2012 that Govt Vacant Land amounted to 4,000ha Residential GVL amounted to 2,153.7ha But 1,200ha are for NTEH! But 500ha are roads, slopes and too small to develop!! But the remaining 391.5ha are mostly mistakes, more than 200ha are wrongly marked as GVL!!! Zoning GVL Area (ha ha) Residential 2,153.7 Comm Ind GIC Recreation Total 3,997.2 詳細 :

14 500ha Land is SCRAPPED! Shall we waste 500ha valuable land in the urban areas, just because they are roads, slopes or too small? It is the development intensity that matters, not the land itself; If the plot ratio can be transferred to other areas, the whole 500ha land's development potential can be achieved! Zoning Area (ha ha) V 1,200 Not-developable 560 Mistakes 200 Developable 190 Total RGVL 2,153.7 詳細 :

15 Other Short Term Land Supply LegCo tells the law makers in 2012 that: 60ha Industrial land would be converted into other uses; Some of the Quarries and Green Belts would be converted into other uses. Government has also granted over 300ha land by short term licences, which can be terminated in the short term, and converted into other uses.

16 Unauthorized Occupied Land and Unzoned Land Audit Commissioner's Report indicates that there are 8,406 cases of unauthorized occupied government land; Just a Lai Zee Yuen case,it occupies 8 ha land for 19 years. Kwai Chung Park (27ha) has been kept vacant since 1979 for toxic gas problem.

17 Other Non-Govt-Vacant Zoned Industrial land is well known to be largely vacant, there are 1,500ha I-zoned land for change of use; Public facilities can be moved into private land, it can release 3,700ha land; They provide 5,200ha land, sufficient for 30-year use. Land Zoned Use Area (Ha) Residential 9,759.5 Commercial Industrial 1,478.9 GIC 3,676.7 Recreation 2,587.4 Total 58,

18 Public Consultation on Long Term Land Supply is Underway Reclamations out of the Victoria Harbour; Canverns; Increase plot ratio; Others Land supply beyond 2047 is not considered, as the status beyond 2047 is subject to the discussion of the renewal of the Basic Laws Long Term Land Supply is Promising!

19 Long Term Preservation for the TFC Development Mode Designate the TFC icon as the long-term development mode of Hong Kong in TPO; 4wins solution for NENT - plot ratio transfer from the farm land to developable land: Farmers: retains the farms at the same locations; Government: achieves the planned land supply; Land owners: grasps the development value; and Citizens: keep the modest population density with sustainable development. Long term population policy and strategy are more important; Fix the maximum population density of HK; Expand land supply from outside.

20 PPT is downloadable at my homepage The End For enquiries, please send to Edward CY YIU yahoo.com.hk.hk