Brief market review of Moscow office real estate

Transcription

1 Brief market review of Moscow office real estate Q3,

2 Moscow office real estate market In Q ,1 thousand sq m of quality office premises (hereinafter class A, B+, B- business centers), that is almost equal to the similar period of the last year (140 thousand sq m of office space was commissioned in Q3 2011). In Q absorption volume amounted to thousand sq m of office premises and exceeded new supply volume by 10%, thereby the balance on the market remained. The vacancy rate has slightly decreased by 0,5 1%. Rental rates for office spaces are still stable on average on the market. Table 1. Main indicators of Moscow office real estate market, Q Main indicators Class А Class В+ Class В- Volume of quality office space according to the results of Q3 2012; thousand sq m Structure of the office real estate 33% 39% 28% market, Q Commissioned in Q3 2012; thousand 104,5 21,6 0 sq m To be commissioned in Q4 2012; ,1 thousand sq m Share of vacant premises, Q ,7% 10% 12,5% Announced average rental rates, $/sq m/year (excluding VAT and operational costs), Central business district Announced average rental rates, $/sq m/year (excluding VAT and operational costs), out of Central business district Announced average selling prices, $/sq m (excluding VAT), Central business district Announced average selling prices, $/sq m (excluding VAT), out of Central business district Operational costs, $/sq m/year

3 Supply According to the results of Q a total volume of the quality office real estate amounted to 12,0 million sq m on the market in Moscow. Availability of quality office premises for residents of Moscow was sq m. In Q ,1 thousand sq m of office space were commissioned, 83% of a gross area referred to class A, 17% - class B+/B-. However, the maximum increase of new supply, commissioned during Q , was fixed in Nothern Administrative Okrug, that was 32% of total supply commissioned during this period (BC Sky Light, Business-park River City). The second place, according to the number of delivered premises, belongs to Central Administrative Okrug (22%). Chart 1. Volume of quality supply, class A, B+, B-; thousand sq m Market volume as of beginning of the period, thousand sq m New construction, thousand sq m Developers assert that 460 thousand sq m of office premises are planned to be commissioned till the year end (Table 2). However, according to GVA Sawyer no more than 250 thousand sq m of office space will be commissioned. At the same time the most part of new supply will be commissioned in Central Administrative Okrug, including major office projects in Moscow International Business Centre Moscow City. Table 2. New projects of office real estate in Moscow, Name of BC Gross/office area, sq m Commissioned in Q Commission ing/ status Light House / Q2012 BC «Vorob`evsky» / Q2012 Business-park River / Q2012 City. «Grand Setun` /60 000* 2Q2012 Plaza» «Olimpic Hall» / Q2012 «Dezhnev Plaza» / Q2012 BC «Pyr`eva 2» Н.д. / Q2012 Sky Light / Q2012 MFC City Point / Q2012 «Krasnogorsk / Q2012 Plaza» Total, Q To be commissioned in Q Q «Merkury City» / Q2012 BC as part of HC / Sky House BC as part of hotel / Q2012 and business complex Park Pobedy «Alkon» / Q2012 «Devyat` akrov», / Q2012 Phase 2 Office and hotel / Q2012 complex Radisson SAS Olympiysky Golden Gate / BC «Aerodom» /33 000* 4Q2012 «Atmosphera», ess / Q2012 quarter «Kantri Park 3» / Q2012 BC «Nakhimovsky» / BC «Leninsky pr, / Q » Premium: West / Q «Yusupov Dvor» Н.д. / Q2012 MFC Technopark / Q2012 «Orbitа», Phase 2 BC «Mar`ina / Q2012 3

4 Name of BC Gross/office area, sq m Commission ing/ status roshcha» Solutions, building Н.д. / Q2012 2;3 «Domino» / * - as estimated In Q the vacancy rate decreased on average in the city and amounted to 11,7% in class A quality business centres, 10% - in class B+, 12,5% - in class B- (BC sample amounted to 67% of all BC of Moscow). Chart 2. Vacancy rates Among the main tendencies in Q3 2012, it is possible to single out: 1. Volume of new office space commissioning increases in comparison with the beginning of the year, but it is not at high level in comparison with the pre-crisis period. 2. Tendencies of the previous quarter, connected with the growth of developer`s activity on the market, were also in Q3. It will influence the increase in the volume of new supply in 2 2,5 years. In Q large projects with a gross area of more than 500 thousand sq m (including projects which will be reconcepted) were announced (Table 3). Table 3. Large projects, announced to be built in Q Facility Location Gross/offic e area, sq m Develo per Administrative Amin`evs / N.a. and business koye N.a. centre (instead Highway of «Akvadrom») MFC «Bol`shoy N.a. / MR (reconcept) city» Group BC «Lotos» Intersecti / MR (реконцепция) on of Group odesskay a Street and Nakhimo vsky Prospekt BC 2 nd / AFI LLC «Parking Brestskay N.a. Develo Tverskaya a Street pment Zastava» MFC «Оkо» МIBC N.a./ Capital «Moscow City» sq Group m MFC Generala Belova Street office space, sq m of which Mosgorstat building Wall Street Valovaya sq «Avgur Street, 37 m Estate» Business-park Nagatins sq Clever kaya m of Estate Poyma commerci al real estate (redevelo pment) BC Grafsky, / CJSC N.a. «Variant or», BC Marshala Biryuzova, building / N.a. LLC «Favorit Technol ogy» 3. Market decentralization still remains. South-western, western and north- 4

5 western districts of the city are the most popular and in high demand among developers as well as among tenants. Demand Structure of demand for premises has remained stable during Tenants usually demand an area of about 500 sq. m. Chart 3. Structure of demand for office premises 1 14% 24% 7% 22% 33% over 1000 Table 4. Major lease transactions in BCs announced in Q Tenant Leasable BC area, sq. m. FBK Company BC «Myasnitskaya Plaza» and BC «Sadovo- Spasskaya, 24» «Pronto-Moscow» BC «South Port» «VTB Leasing» BC «South Port» Richemont BC «Naberezhnaya Tower» Continental Tyres BC Lighthouse Rus Lafarge BC«Vivaldi Plaza» CROC IT-Company BC «Intergral» CBRE BC«White Tenant Leasable BC area, sq. m. Square» «Security Code» Office park «Semenovsky» «Center of Financial BC «Kozhevniki» Technologies» «Energoprom Management» BC «Dvintsev» Starlett prêt-a-porter BC «Na Maloy Gruzinskoy Azimut Hotels BC «Novospassky Dvor» SMEG 800 BC W-Plaza «Raiffeisen Capital» 760 BC «Concord» «Maxima Logistic» 550 Office park «Semenovsky» «Stroygazconsulting» 340 BC «Europe Building» In Q3 O1 Properties bought two BCs at once, see Table 5. Table 5. Major investment transactions inq Purchaser O1 Properties O1 Properties Area (office), sq. m. BC Sum of transactio n Ducat III $370 million Silver City $333 million Constant tendencies of previous periods are as follow: As before many tenants focus on fit-out premises, while big companies consider Shell&Core premises. There is a stable demand for buying small office premises. A high demand for premises inside the Garden Ring Road still remains. Vacancy rates in this segment are practically the same as those during pre-crisis period, and they amount to no more than 5%. 1 According to GVA Sawyer clients requests for office premises 5

6 Financial conditions As GVA Sawyer specialists predicted, in Q1-Q rental rates for office real estate remained stable on average in the market. Growth of rental rates was observed in several class A quality BCs, located mainly in the Central Administrative District. According to the results of Q3 2012, rental rates for class A BCs in the Central Business District amounted to $750 - $ /sq. m./year (hereinafter triple net). Rental rates for class B+ total $650 - $750/sq. m./year within the Central Business District, $ /sq. m./year outside the Central Business District, rental rates for class are $ /sq. m./year. Volume of operational costs for class A offices amounted to $ /sq. m./year on average, for class В+ offices - $ sq. m./year, for class В- offices $60-85/sq. m./year. Price range for office premises remains stable as well (class А $ /sq. m., excluding VAT, within CBD, $ /sq. m. outside CBD; class В+ $ /sq. m.; class В- $ /sq. m.). Chart 4. Average weighted rental rates, $/sq. m./year/triple net In Q rental rates will be stable, and in the first half-year of 2013 one can expect a slight growth of rental rates by 5-7% in office real estate market. Rental rates within the Garden Ring Road will grow more rapidly than on the market in general. Next year rental rates may increase by 10-15%. 2 Weighted average value among projects put on the market 6

7 Аналитический документ по исследованию рынка недвижимости 2012 GVA Worldwide Australia Austria China Cyprus Denmark Estonia Finland Germany Great Britain Greece Hong Kong (PRC) Hungary Ireland Italy Lithuania Netherlands New Zealand Poland Russia Sweden Switzerland GVA Sawyer contacts Head office (Moscow): Bernikovskaya Embankment House Nikoloyamskaya Ul. 13, Str Moscow, Russia Тel: +7 (495) Fax: +7 (495) Office in St. Petrsburg: BC Mir, Elfimova Ul. 4а, office St. Petersburg, Russia Тel: +7 (812) Ofice in Krasnoyarsk: Diktatura Proletariata Ul. 32 Office 4-4, Krasnoyarsk, Russia Тel: + 7 (391) info@gvasawyer.com Office in Krasnodar: Краснодар, Россия Zipovskaya Ul. 5, building 8, office 309 Тel: +7 (495) info@gvasawyer.com Подготовлено GVA Sawyer