ANALYSIS OF INTENSIFICATION OPPORTUNITIES IN THE CITY OF BRANTFORD. Final Report Prepared for:

Transcription

1 ANALYSIS OF INTENSIFICATION OPPORTUNITIES IN THE CITY OF BRANTFORD Final Report Prepared for: February 2012

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS I INTRODUCTION... 1 A. Purpose of this Report... 1 B. Types of Intensification Considered... 1 C. How the Analysis Was Prepared... 2 II PLANNING POLICY REVIEW... 4 A. The Intensification Analysis Is Being Prepared in a New Policy Context... 4 B. The City of Brantford Is Planning to Implement Provincial Policies... 7 C. Provincial and City Policies Establish the Framework for Analysis... 9 III ANALYSIS OF INTENSIFICATION OPPORTUNITIES A. Approach to Estimating Intensification Opportunities B. Urban Growth Centre C. Intensification Areas D. Brownfields and Other Sites of Interest IV CONCLUSIONS AND STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS A. City Can Comfortably Achieve the Growth Plan Intensification Target B. Density Is below Growth Plan Targets for the UGC and Greenfield Areas C. Three Strategic Directions Are Recommended APPENDIX: Detailed Results and Mapping HEMSON

3 I INTRODUCTION The City of Brantford is preparing an intensification strategy as an update to its official plan and to come fully into conformity with the 2006 Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (the Growth Plan). The strategy is being prepared through a four-phase study process: In Phase 1, background research was undertaken to identify lands in the City with intensification potential, recent trends in development and key issues related to intensification. Phase 1 was completed by City staff in September Phase 2 data analysis was initiated shortly thereafter. The key objective of Phase 2 is to assess the City s capacity to achieve the intensification targets and policies in the Growth Plan; In Phase 3, informed by the results of Phase 2, a series of intensification scenarios is to be developed in consultation with the public, City planning staff and other stakeholders; and In Phase 4, the results of the analysis and stakeholder consultation will be translated into the intensification strategy and recommended official plan policies, zoning by-law regulations and urban design guidelines. A. PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT The purpose of this report is to summarize the results of the Phase 2 analysis. In particular, conclusions are provided on the City s ability to achieve the Growth Plan policies and targets for intensification within the built-up area. While not a specific focus of the assignment, the potential to achieve a higher density of development in the designated greenfield areas has also been assessed. The Phase 2 analysis is high-level in nature. It is intended to address the issue of the City s capacity to accommodate intensification with regard to: the growth outlook, the land supply within designated growth areas, the market potential for intensification and other challenges and opportunities to implementation. Based on the results, strategic directions are recommended for consideration as part of the City s overall approach to intensification and, ultimately, the preparation of the strategy itself. B. TYPES OF INTENSIFICATION CONSIDERED The intensification strategy is being prepared for all urban lands within the City of Brantford. Accordingly, the analysis considers three types of intensification: HEMSON

4 2 Residential intensification within the built-up area, including identified intensification areas and corridors and around the existing transit station; Residential and employment intensification within the Downtown Area (the Urban Growth Centre); and As noted above, the potential for higher densities in the designated greenfield areas. The built-up area refers to the developed urban area encompassed by the built boundary as identified by the Province in The designated greenfield area refers to lands not currently urbanized but designated for future development outside the built boundary. The Urban Growth Centre (UGC) is an area identified conceptually by the Province as a focus for intensification and delineated in more detail by the City of Brantford. The Growth Plan-mandated areas are illustrated on the map on the following page. Only the residential greenfield areas that have been identified by the City in its official plan are shown. There are additional greenfield employment areas in the City which are not explicitly shown in its official plan but are included in the greenfield density analysis. C. HOW THE ANALYSIS WAS PREPARED The analysis was prepared in three steps: First, Provincial and City planning policies were reviewed to establish the framework for the analysis, including the growth outlook and geographic focus for intensification; Second, the potential to accommodate intensification in the City was identified, including residential and employment intensification potential within the builtup area and greenfield areas; and Finally, the supply potential was compared to the growth outlook and conclusions reached on the City s ability to accommodate intensification and achieve the policies and targets of the Growth Plan. Consistent with the steps in the analysis, the remainder of this report is organized into three chapters. The next chapter describes the results of the planning policy review and framework for analysis. This is followed by a chapter that summarizes the analysis and resulting estimates of the City s intensification potential: details and associated mapping are provided in the Appendix to the report. The final chapter compares supply and demand and sets out the conclusions and strategic recommendations. 1 For details, see Size and Location of Urban Growth Centres in the Greater Golden Horseshoe, Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure, HEMSON

5 3 CITY OF BRANTFORD GROWTH PLAN MANDATED AREAS HEMSON

6 4 II PLANNING POLICY REVIEW This chapter provides a review of the planning policies that affect intensification in the City of Brantford, in particular Provincial policies and the City s Growth Plan amendment: Official Plan Amendment 125 (OPA 125). The planning policy review is used to establish the framework and a set of principles to guide the analysis. A. THE INTENSIFICATION ANALYSIS IS BEING PREPARED IN A NEW POLICY CONTEXT On June 16, 2006, the Province of Ontario adopted the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (Growth Plan). The Growth Plan sets out a vision for growth in the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) to 2031, including a set of longrange growth forecasts and direction on how that growth should be accommodated. The Growth Plan has significant implications for planning in the City of Brantford, particularly as it relates to population and employment growth as well as the Growth Plan-related density and intensification targets. The City s approach to planning, and to intensification, must reflect and support this Provincial planning policy environment. 1. Growth Plan Sets Out the Forecasts to Be Used for Long-Range Planning The Growth Plan contains a set of population and employment allocations that municipalities in the GGH must use for long-range planning and managing growth. The forecasts are set out in Schedule 3 of the Growth Plan. Over the period to 2031, growth is forecast to be concentrated mainly in the Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton (GTAH) where most of the population and employment is already accommodated. Approximately 25% of population growth and 20% of employment growth to 2031 have been allocated to the Outer Ring 1, which includes the County of Brant and the City of Brantford. Since the adoption of the Growth Plan, and in consultation with the Province, it has now been determined that the City of Brantford should plan for a total population of 126,000 and 53,000 jobs in As shown in Table 1 below, the Growth Plan forecasts represent growth of approximately 28,000 people and 8,000 jobs from 2011 to Population growth over this period translates into approximately 13,000 occupied private dwelling units (households). 1 The Outer Ring is defined in the Growth Plan as a geographic area containing various single- or upper-tier municipalities in the GGH beyond the GTAH. HEMSON

7 5 Table 1 Historic and Forecast Population, Households and Employment, City of Brantford Census Year Growth Source: Total Population 94,000 98, , , ,000 Households 35,600 37,500 40,800 43,900 50,400 Employment 44,000 45,000 47,000 49,000 53,000 28,000 12,900 8,000 Population and household figures are from the City of Brantford 2009 Development Charges (DC) Background Study, with the exception of the 2011 figures which are from the 2011 Census. Households are private occupied dwellings based on the 2011 Census and the forecast of total households shown in the 2009 DC study. Population figures include a 4% Census undercount consistent with the Growth Plan and the City s official plan forecasts employment is the Growth Plan forecast employment and figures for intervening years are drawn from the forecast models maintained by Hemson. 2. Growth Plan Also Provides Direction on How Growth Is to Be Accommodated In addition to setting out the forecasts, the Growth Plan also provides direction on how growth should be accommodated. Generally, the Growth Plan seeks to shift the more traditional patten of suburban development to more compact and denser urban forms and to generally restrict rural-type development outside of settlement areas. The Growth Plan encourages intensification throughout the built-up area (Section 2.2.3) and identifies a set of Urban Growth Centres (UGCs) which are to be a focus for higherdensity housing and employment, including an UGC in the City of Brantford (Section 2.2.4). The Growth Plan also directs municipalities to designate other areas as a focus for intensification including Major Transit Station Areas and Intensification Corridors (Section 2.2.5). Three sets of Growth Plan policies are of particular relevance to the analysis presented in this report as they set out specific quantitative measures of how municipalities must plan to accommodate future growth. The policies are: a) A minimum proportion of future growth that is to be accommodated through intensification; b) A minimum density of development to be planned for designated greenfield areas; and c) A minimum density for planned development in the designated UGCs; These three policies, or rules, provide the envelope in which planning for growth must occur. The first rule relates to intensification and states that: By the year 2015 and for each year thereafter, a minimum of 40% of all residential development occurring annually within [the City of Brantford] will be within the built-up area ( ). HEMSON

8 6 This first rule provides direction on the proportion of new residential development to occur within the built-up area (i.e. intensification) and refers to a total number of units, not density. For the purposes of the 40% rule, the Growth Plan defines intensification to include all forms of residential development including low-density development such as single and semi-detached units. 1 The second rule relates to the density of greenfield development and states that: The designated greenfield area of each upper- or single-tier municipality will be planned to achieve a minimum density target that is not less than 50 residents and jobs combined per hectare ( ). This rule provides direction on the amount of greenfield urban lands that are designated to accommodate growth. More intensive forms of development in greenfield areas will contribute to achieving the minimum density target, but do not count towards the Growth Plan s 40% rule. The third and final rule relates to the future density of the City of Brantford s UGC, which must be planned to achieve a minimum of 150 residents and jobs combined per ha. The UGC density target is in addition to the target for the number of units to be accommodated within the built boundary under the 40% rule. 1 This approach differs from the more typical definition of intensification which relates more to the development of medium- and higher-density urban forms than a share of new units by location. 3. Protecting Employment Areas Is Also a Priority In addition to the three quantitative targets, the Growth Plan also seeks to preserve existing employment areas and reduce pressures for conversion of lands within employment areas to non-employment uses: Overall, the Growth Plan places a strong emphasis on economic development and sets out strict criteria regarding the conversion of lands within employment areas to non-employment uses. (Section 2.2.5); and For the purposes of the conversion tests, under the Growth Plan major retail uses are not considered employment uses. Although these uses still generate jobs, for the long-range planning purposes of Section of the Growth Plan, they are excluded. The Growth Plan policies have been further reinforced through recent amendments to the Planning Act through Bill 51 in 2006, which strengthens the municipality s ability to refuse applications to convert employment land by removing the private applicant s ability to appeal such applications to the Ontario Municipal Board. The Growth Plan employment land policies are relevant for this study because a fair amount of intensification occurs through the redevelopment of older industrial lands or employment areas typically in the form of higher-density residential or major retail development. Both types of uses are discouraged in employment areas under the Growth Plan, with the result that municipalities must direct them to other areas within the community. HEMSON

9 7 Generally, the Growth Plan seeks to achieve a more compact urban form and identifies specific targets that must be met in order to achieve this policy objective. Although the Growth Plan encourages intensification generally throughout the built-up area, it is important to note that it does not require that intensification be accommodated in all locations. The Growth Plan identifies specific locations, notably the UGCs, and directs municipalities to designate additional areas and corridors as a focus for intensification in their official plans, including areas around major transit stations. As a single-tier municipality within the GGH, the City of Brantford is responsible for planning to achieve the overall Growth Plan policies and numerical targets. 1 B. THE CITY OF BRANTFORD IS PLANNING TO IMPLEMENT PROVINCIAL POLICIES The City of Brantford recently completed a five-year review of its official plan. The findings were incorporated into Official Plan Amendment (OPA) 125, which was adopted by City Council on May 28, 2007, approved by the Province in December 2008, and received final Ontario Municipal Board (OMB) settlement approval in December This is unlike some lower-tier municipalities, where the specific intensification and density targets are set by the upper tier as part of a region-wide planning analysis. While the background studies for OPA 125 were completed prior to the adoption of the Growth Plan in 2006, the OPA 125 work was undertaken with knowledge of the Growth Plan and its key policy directions. Modifications were also made to OPA 125 by the Province to ensure its policy framework conforms to the Growth Plan. To this end, OPA 125 amends the official plan by adding a new section: Section 15 Growth Management, which sets out policies for: The Built Boundary, the area within which is intended to accommodate 40% of new residential development by 2015 and for each year thereafter (Section 15.2); The UGC, which is intended to achieve a minimum gross density of 150 residents and jobs combined per ha by 2031 (Section 15.3) and the Downtown, which is within the UGC and is to be promoted as a location for revitalization and the expansion of the post-secondary campus (Section 6.2.4); Greenfield Areas, which are intended to achieve a minimum gross density of 50 residents and jobs combined per ha (Section 15.4); Intensification Corridor Areas, which have potential to provide for increased residential and employment densities and mixed-use development (Section 15.5); and The area surrounding the City s Major Transit Station, which is also identified as a focus for increased densities (Section 15.7). HEMSON

10 8 OPA 125 further amends the official plan by adding policies intended to encourage the revitalization, redevelopment and reuse of underutilized areas, including brownfields (Section ), Regeneration Areas (Section 15.6), and Community Improvement areas (Section 16). These policies are also consistent with the overall planning principles and objectives of the Growth Plan. Finally, in regards to employment areas, OPA 125 also adds an objective to plan to protect and preserve employment areas for current and future uses (Section ) and to only permit the conversion of lands within designated employment areas to non-employment uses though a municipal comprehensive review (Section ). These policies are in accordance with the Growth Plan. The City s designated employment areas, however, are not defined in OPA 125 nor is the term non-employment use. This policy condition is of relevance because some sites located within the City s Intensification Corridor Areas are designated industrial (i.e. employment) but have been identified as having potential for mixed-use development, including increased residential and employment densities, as part of the growth management policies of OPA 125. For the purposes of this analysis, a mix of residential and employment is anticipated for the majority of sites within the Intensification Corridor Areas, whether or not they are currently permitted. Again, this approach is taken as part of a high-level analysis to determine the City s capacity to accommodate the intensification targets and policies of the Growth Plan. It should not be construed as recommending changes in land use designations. Potential changes in land use designations for specific sites will be considered in Phases 3 and 4 of the study, through the preparation of intensification directions and further public consultation. However, for sites which are designated for industrial uses, the potential for their utilization with nonindustrial uses will be reviewed as part of the City s forthcoming Official Plan Review. HEMSON

11 9 C. PROVINCIAL AND CITY POLICIES ESTABLISH THE FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS The Provincial and City policies reviewed in the previous section allow for the establishment of a framework for the analysis, in particular the number of units that will need to be accommodated through intensification in the built-up area and their geographic focus. Based on this framework, a set of planning principles has been developed to guide the intensification analysis. 1. City Will Need to Accommodate 3,800 New Housing Units within the Built-Up Area From a demand perspective, in order to implement the Growth Plan and the OPA % intensification target within the built boundary, approximately 3,800 new housing units will need to be accommodated. The estimate of the number of units required is summarized in Table 2. It is important to note that, under the Growth Plan, only intensification that occurs within the built-up area is to be counted toward the achievement of the intensification target. More intensive development in the City s designated greenfield areas is not counted towards achieving the 40% rule though it may take a compact urban form. It is also important to reiterate that, although the Growth Plan and OPA 125 encourage intensification generally throughout the built-up area, neither requires that intensification be accommodated in all locations. Table 2 Residential Units to Be Accommodated though Intensification within the Built Boundary City of Brantford, 2015 to 2031 Census Year Total Unit Growth 2015 to 2031 Historic and Forecast Household Growth 35,600 37,500 40,800 43,900 50,400 9,600 40% of Total Units 3,800 Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. based on 2009 Development Charges Background Study and 2011 Census. Households are private occupied dwellings. 2. Five Planning Principles Are Used to Identify Intensification Opportunities In light of the above, and taking into account the broad locational and land use planning objectives of both the City and the Province, the following five principles are used to guide the identification of intensification opportunities: 1. The geographic focus of intensification should be on the areas identified for intensification in the Growth Plan and OPA 125, notably the UGC and the Intensification Corridor Areas; HEMSON

12 10 2. In general, stable low-density residential areas should not be a focus for intensification; however, where local circumstances warrant, sensitive integration of smallscale infill development may be appropriate; 3. Designated employment areas should generally not be a focus for residential intensification, consistent with Growth Plan directions to minimize the conversion of lands within such areas to non-employment uses. For the purposes of this analysis, however, a mix of residential and employment is assumed for some sites in the Intensification Corridor Areas, including those designated for industrial use. It is anticipated that the specific site assumptions may be refined in later phases of the intensification strategy and within the context of the results of the forthcoming Official Plan Review. 4. Generally, intensification in the form of medium and higher-density mixed use development should be encouraged as part of the development of complete communities, and should be broadly compatible with surrounding areas; and 5. The identified intensification opportunities should have a reasonable market prospect of being realized over the planning period to Intensification Opportunities Are Further Categorized into Three Time Periods As a framework for identifying the amount and likely market timing of intensification opportunities, they are further categorized into three sub-groups that have the following characteristics: Short-term Opportunities (2011 to 2021) sites of known development interest or sites that are large, well-located and vacant or occupied with very old vacant buildings; Mid-Term Opportunities (2021 to 2031) older retail strip development, small lot quasi-residential and retail strip development, older parking lots of reasonable size and vacant sites that do not meet current project feasibility thresholds; and Long-Term Opportunities (2031+) intensification opportunities that are not anticipated to be realized within the life of the plan to 2031, including new retail development, especially new large-format retail, new or stable residential neighbourhoods, and institutional and health care facilities such as long-term care facilities, churches and seniors residences. Excluded from the analysis are parcels for which there is no reasonable expectation of redevelopment as indicated by City staff. Such parcels include cemeteries, municipal parks and monuments, utilities and sites with significant topographical constraints. HEMSON

13 11 Through the adoption of the Growth Plan, the Province has taken a much more direct role in growth management in southern Ontario, including the City of Brantford. The Growth Plan not only sets out the forecasts to be used for long-range planning but also clear direction on how that growth is to be accommodated, including a series of numeric targets that must be met. The City of Brantford has implemented the new Provincial policies in OPA 125, including the Growth Plan-mandated intensification and density targets and area delineations such as the UGC and intensification corridors. Taken together, the new Provincial and City policies allow for the establishment of a framework and set of principles that is used to guide the analysis of intensification opportunities which is discussed in the next chapter. HEMSON

14 III ANALYSIS OF INTENSIFICATION OPPORTUNITIES 12 This chapter summarizes the results of the analysis of intensification opportunities, focussing on the potential for intensification within the built-up area in accordance with the Growth Plan definition. The issue of greenfield density is addressed separately in the next chapter. The focus of the analysis is on land supply, in particular the specific parcels where intensification could potentially occur. The question of market demand is addressed, but to a lesser degree, given Growth Plan requirements. While planning has always been a balance between policy goals and market forces, the Growth Plan has taken a much more ambitious approach to further shifting development patterns away from traditional suburban forms. For most municipalities in the GGH, implementing the Growth Plan targets necessarily means planning to achieve a shift in housing and employment land market patterns, and in particular a shift from single-detached to higher-density rowhouse and apartment units. Past market trends are of interest to understand the scale and nature of the shifts required, but are not of material relevance for the purposes of Growth Plan conformity. A. APPROACH TO ESTIMATING INTENSIFICATION OPPORTUNITIES The intensification opportunities are estimated using a combination of site analysis, field work and input from City staff and other consulting team members. It should be noted again that the estimates are high-level and prepared for the purposes of determining the City s capacity to achieve the Growth Plan policies and intensification targets. To this end, the following approach is taken. 1. Existing Residential Development Permissions Are Maintained For sites with existing low-, medium- or high-density residential official plan designations, the specified unit per ha rates are applied. 1 This approach is considered reasonable for the purposes of the capacity analysis. It also recognizes that the City has already taken into account the potential for medium- or higher-density development in these locations, including those identified in OPA 125. The potential for intensification through second units, or accessory units, is not included in the estimate. 1 The rates are 30, 60 and 200 units per net ha for low-, medium- and high-density development respectively (Section 7.2). HEMSON

15 13 2. Potential For Majority of Other Sites Is Based on a Typical Mixed-Use Development The intensification for most of the sites within the builtboundary is estimated according to the densities typical for a standard mixed-used development: For most sites within the corridor areas, a density of 75 units and 50 employees per net ha is applied reflecting the density of a typical 4-storey, 10,000 m 2 building with retail at grade and surface parking; and For most sites within the UGC, a higher density is applied: 125 units and 50 employees per net ha, the density of a typical 6-storey, 15,000 m 2 building with retail at grade and surface parking. 3. Special Density Assumptions Are Applied in a Small Number of Cases For some sites, special density assumptions are applied. These include sites considered to have the potential for more comprehensive mixed-use development, such as: The two large sites in the southern UGC, south of Icomm Drive and West of Market Street; A large vacant site on the south side of Lynden Road, east of the Lynden Park Mall; and The site of the former Canadian Tire facility on the south side of Colborne Street East. A density of 150 units per ha is applied to these sites, reflecting a greater development potential. The potential for employment is based on an estimate of retail space likely to be provided on the site frontage lands at a rate of 40 m 2 per employee. For other sites in the City, only employment intensification is assumed. These include: Vacant commercial sites that, according to City staff, are expected to develop with pure retail uses. A density of approximately 60 employees per net ha is applied to these sites, which is based on retail development at 25% building coverage and 40 m 2 per employee; and Vacant industrial sites that are still considered to be competitive for industrial use based on their location and transportation access. Some of these sites include those north of Henry Street in the Braneida Industrial Area and those near the intersection of Highway 403 and West Street. A density of 40 employees per net ha is applied to these sites, consistent with a standard industrial-type development. Details on the densities used to estimate the intensification potential, as well as the site-by-site results for each area, are provided in the Appendix to this report. The results are summarized in the following sections, beginning with the UGC. This is followed by a summary of the results for the intensification areas and corridors, and brownfields and other parcels of interest. HEMSON

16 14 B. URBAN GROWTH CENTRE In terms of physical characteristics and intensification opportunities, there are two main sections to the UGC : The historic downtown core and an established residential neighbourhood to the north, characterized by a large number of relatively small sites, some vacant parcels and older buildings; and The area south of Colborne Street, which is characterized by a smaller number of large parcels, with some vacant and/or under-utilized sites as well as extensive areas of surface parking. The downtown core has a high potential for intensification as a result of the historic appeal of many locations, access to bus and rail-based transit, and the presence of postsecondary educational facilities, notably Wilfrid Laurier University which is planning a significant expansion. Summary of Intensification Opportunities The Urban Growth Centre Parcel Characteristics Short-Term (2011 to 2021) Mid-Term (2021 to 2031) Total Housing Potential Short-Term Mid-Term Total Employment Source: Land Area Table 3 33 ha 17 ha 50 ha Units 3,470 1,430 4,890 1,660 jobs Hemson Consulting Ltd., Detailed results are provided in the Appendix to this report. The southern portion of the UGC also has a high potential for intensification as a result of a small number of larger parcels that are vacant and/or occupied with under-utilized buildings and of sufficient size to potentially accommodate multi-building and multi-use redevelopment. As shown in Table 3 over, there is a total potential for approximately 4,890 units and 1,660 jobs in the City s UGC. HEMSON

17 15 C. INTENSIFICATION AREAS The City of Brantford has identified 10 intensification corridors generally focussed along the major arterial roads. A range of intensification opportunities has been identified in these areas, including stand-alone sites and strips of smallerlot development that, over time and with appropriate land assembly, could intensify. The opportunities are summarized in the sections below, organized into the north, central and southern areas of the community. King George Road Both sides of King George Road from Powerline Road to St. Paul Avenue are characterized by predominately largescale retail and highway commercial strip development, both north and south of Highway 403, including some larger vacant parcels that could accommodate sizeable higherdensity development. Of particular interest is the now vacant site of a former General Motors car dealership and site to the south, which together represent a sizeable and short-term opportunity for intensification. Lynden Road 1. North Brantford The north Brantford intensification areas include: Wayne Gretzky Parkway, King George Road, Lynden Road and West Street. These areas tend to be more suburban in nature, typically characterized by larger building setbacks and areas of surface parking, frequent curb-cuts and a relatively lowdensity mix of commercial and residential uses that often back-lot onto open space. Wayne Gretzky Parkway The corridor includes the west side of Wayne Gretzky Parkway, which is characterized by relatively new residential development, as well as institutional development such as churches and long-term care facilities and some retail. There are two vacant sites in the corridor north of Lynden Road, including one that is currently outside of the built-up area. The area around the interchange with Lynden Road is characterized mainly by retail uses. Both sides of Lynden Road, generally from the Wayne Gretzky Parkway intersection east to Roy Boulevard are characterized by relatively new commercial strip retail uses as well as the Lynden Park Mall at the intersection with Highway 403. There are also some older apartment buildings at the eastern limit of the corridor. There are two under-utilized parcels abutting the Lynden Park Mall, one to the east and one to the south, both of which could accommodate new mixed-use development. There is also a large vacant site on the south side of Lynden Road, east of the Lynden Park Mall, which also has good intensification potential. As noted, this is one of the sites to which a special density assumption has been applied. It is, however, located adjacent to one of the City s major industrial areas the Braneida Industrial Area with the result that care would need to be taken to appropriately buffer the employment uses to the south. HEMSON

18 16 West Street West Street, generally from its intersection with Lynden Road south to Durham Street, is characterized by wide range and mix of uses: On the east side of West Street to Charing Cross Street there is a range of intensification opportunities, including the potential to assemble a significant parcel in the vicinity of the Bell City Foundry facility, an older industrial use; and South of Charing Cross Street on both sides of West Street presents mainly smaller-scale opportunities for intensification, with the exception of one larger site at the south east corner of West and Harris Streets which is occupied with a mix of older commercial uses and surface parking areas. As shown in Table 4, there is an estimated potential for approximately 3,450 units and 3,170 jobs in the north Brantford intensification corridors. Although a mix of residential uses has been identified for the Lynden Road corridor, one of the key issues that will need to be addressed in this location is the proximity of many parcels to a major industrial area. Care would need to be taken to appropriately buffer the employment uses to the south and north, as may be the case. Summary of Intensification Opportunities North Brantford Intensification Areas Parcel Characteristics Short-Term (2011 to 2021) Mid-Term (2021 to 2031) Total Housing Potential Short-Term Mid-Term Total Employment Source: Land Area Table 4 39 ha 23 ha 62 ha Units 1,900 1,550 3,450 3,170 jobs Hemson Consulting Ltd., Detailed results are provided in the Appendix to this report. 2. Central Brantford The intensification areas in central Brantford include St. Paul Avenue, Charing Cross Street and Henry Street. Generally, these areas are characterized by older, already mixed-use development, with the exception of Henry Street which is largely industrial and commercial in nature. Generally, the intensification potential in central Brantford is more limited than in north Brantford. HEMSON

19 17 St. Paul Avenue The corridor is characterized by a pattern of small lot, older residential and commercial strip retail uses. There is a large parcel south of Charing Cross Street, which is occupied by a Home Hardware store and an extensive surface parking area, which could accommodate mixed-use development. St. Paul Avenue is also the location of Brantford General Hospital and associated uses, which presents the opportunity for intensification associated with the health care cluster; Charing Cross Street Charing Cross Street is characterized by small-lot quasiresidential and retail development, including a number of homes that have been converted to commercial uses. The potential for intensification in this area is largely considered to be beyond 2021 given the need for property assembly to accommodate redevelopment. Henry Street The Henry Street corridor area is characterized mainly by employment uses and contains a number of short-term opportunities for employment intensification, including two large vacant commercial sites at the intersection of Wayne Gretzky Parkway. The potential for residential and mixed-use intensification is generally limited to the areas west of Wayne Gretzky Parkway and south of Henry Street. As shown in Table 5 over, there is a total potential for approximately 2,180 units and 1,800 jobs in the central Brantford intensification corridors. Summary of Intensification Opportunities Central Brantford Intensification Areas Parcel Characteristics Short-Term (2011 to 2021) Mid-Term (2021 to 2031) Total Housing Potential Short-Term Mid-Term Total Employment Source: Land Area Table 5 20 ha 24 ha 44 ha Units 80 2,100 2,180 1,800 jobs Hemson Consulting Ltd., Detailed results are provided in the Appendix to this report. 3. South Brantford The final grouping of intensification areas is in south Brantford and includes Erie Avenue, Colborne Street East and Colborne Street West. As with the central Brantford intensification areas, generally these areas are characterized by a pattern of older already mixed-use development, with the exception of Colborne Street East, which is more highway commercial in nature. South Brantford also contains one of the City s most prominent intensification opportunities: the site of the former Canadian Tire facility on Colbourne Street East. HEMSON

20 18 Erie Avenue Erie Avenue is occupied mainly by stable, low-density residential uses. There is some potential for intensification north of Cayuga Street where the pattern of development shifts to include some older and under-utilized parcels. Closer proximity to the Veteran s Memorial Highway also suggests a greater potential for intensification. The introduction of second or accessory dwelling units may be the predominant form of intensification in the corridor. This potential, however, has not been included in the estimate. Colbourne Street West The Colborne Street West corridor, like other central Brantford corridors, is characterized by small-lot, older residential and commercial strip retail uses. At the southern boundary of the area there are intensification opportunities associated with some older industrial and retail uses. There are also some vacant and under-utilized parcels elsewhere in the corridor where mixed-use redevelopment could be anticipated to occur over time. Colborne Street East Colborne Street East area contains a number of relatively large sites which could accommodate intensification though mixed-use redevelopment, in particular the site of the former Canadian Tire facility on the south side of the corridor between Brett and Iroquois Streets. The Canadian Tire site is approximately 4 ha (10 acres) in size and has a strong potential for intensification. The size, visibility and transportation access enjoyed by the parcel suggests that a substantial stand-alone mixed-use redevelopment could be accommodated. For the purposes of this analysis, a mix of residential and commercial uses has been assumed; however, the specific types of development are likely to be refined through later stages of the study. As shown in Table 6 below, there is a total potential for approximately 1,955 units and 725 jobs in the south Brantford intensification corridors. Summary of Intensification Opportunities South Brantford Intensification Areas Parcel Characteristics Short-Term (2011 to 2021) Mid-Term (2021 to 2031) Total Housing Potential Short-Term Mid-Term Total Employment Source: Land Area Table 6 5 ha 14 ha 19 ha Units 715 1,240 1, jobs Hemson Consulting Ltd., Detailed results are provided in the Appendix to this report. HEMSON

21 19 D. BROWNFIELDS AND OTHER SITES OF INTEREST In addition to the identified intensification areas, the City has identified a number of brownfield sites 1 that may have potential for intensification. The City-identified brownfields are shown in Table 7 below. Table 7 Potential Intensification Opportunities City of Brantford Brownfields, in Hectares (ha) City-Identified Brownfields 347 Greenwich Street 66 Mohawk Street 22 Mohawk Street 22 Syndenham Street 17 Syndenham Street 205 Greenwich Street 232 Grand River Avenue Wellington Street Mohawk Street Short-Term to Mid-Term 2021 to 2031 Total to Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd based on information provided by the City of Brantford. 1 Defined as undeveloped or previously developed properties that may be contaminated. They are usually, but not exclusively, former industrial or commercial properties that may be underutilized, derelict or vacant (Provincial Policy Statement, 2005) In addition to brownfields, there are some other sites of interest within the built-up area that may have the potential for intensification. These sites include: Vacant parcels within the City's older industrial areas, primarily in southern Brantford. These parcels are not considered suitable for intensification, particularly retail or residential development, because of the potential for land use conflicts and employment area de-stabilization. This position may be reconsidered, however, in the forthcoming Official Plan Review. Small, scattered vacant sites within existing residential communities. These sites are considered suitable for small-scale residential infill at densities in keeping with their current land use designation and surrounding lowdensity neighbourhoods; and Other sites designated for more intensive uses through OPA 125, but not within the identified intensification areas. These sites are suitable for intensification at the specific unit per ha rates. As shown in Table 8 below, there is a total potential for approximately 4,400 units and 120 jobs within the City's brownfields and other sites of interest within the built-up area. HEMSON

22 20 Summary of Intensification Opportunities Brownfields and Other Sites of Interest Parcel Characteristics Short-Term (2011 to 2021) Mid-Term (2021 to 2031) Total Housing Potential Short-Term Mid-Term Total Employment Land Area Table 8 28 ha 96 ha 124 ha Units 1,500 2,900 4, jobs As noted, some changes to the planning status of specific sites may be required to stimulate the intensification process. While market forces will ultimately determine when and where intensification occurs, the City does have the ability and tools to assist intensification and move towards achieving the objectives and targes of the Growth Plan. Accordingly, the final chapter of this report provides a more detailed discussion of the conclusions to be drawn from the analysis, along with the strategic directions recommended for consideration in later stages of the study. Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd., Detailed results are provided in the Appendix to this report. As shown in the previous tables, there is a substantial potential for intensification in the City of Brantford. This is consistent with the experience of most other communities in the GGH, particularly those with an historic downtown core and existing mixed-use corridors. Some opportunities will develop in the short term, while others will be realized over a longer period. Intensification will occur as existing uses deteriorate to the point where they are no longer worth maintaining or the value of residential or retail land increases enough to make the intensification of existing developments financially feasible. HEMSON

23 IV CONCLUSIONS AND STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS 21 The key conclusion to be drawn is that the City of Brantford is well-positioned to accommodate the Growth Plan 40% intensification rule. The densities of both the UGC and greenfield areas, however, are below Growth Plan targets. In light of these results, it is recommended that intensification be focussed in the UGC and steps be taken to increase the density of unplanned greenfield areas. A. CITY CAN COMFORTABLY ACHIEVE THE GROWTH PLAN INTENSIFICATION TARGET Area UGC Intensification Areas North Central South Brownfields & others Total Intensification Opportunities City of Brantford to 2031 Housing Unit Potential Short ,470 1, ,500 Mid ,430 1,550 2,100 1,240 2,900 Table 9 Jobs 1,660 3,170 1, From both a supply and demand perspective, the City is wellpositioned to achieve its intensification target. There is a significant supply potential and the future demand outlook is positive, particularly with respect to employment and the expansion of post-secondary education. 1. Significant Supply Potential Exists As shown in Table 9, in total there is a potential for approximately 16,885 residential units and 7,475 jobs through intensification over the period to Relative to the overall growth forecast, this can be considered to be a significant supply potential. Total 7,665 9,220 16,885 Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd., ,475 The area with the largest potential for intensification is the UGC, at approximately 4,900 units (3,470 short-term units and 1,430 units in the mid-term to 2031) and 1,660 jobs. Outside of the UGC, the arterial corridors in north Brantford have the greatest potential for intensification, with the remaining areas such as brownfields and other scattered sites having a somewhat more limited potential. In total, the City of Brantford s potential of 16,885 units is greatly in excess of that required to accommodate the Growth Plan 40% target of 3,800 units. HEMSON

24 22 2. City Is Well-Positioned to Attract More Intense Forms of Development In addition to having a large supply potential, the City also appears to be very well-positioned to accommodate the demand for intensification. A number of observations lead us to this conclusion, including: The recent rate of intensification, which has been above 40%. According to the City's 2010 Residential Monitoring Report, the City has averaged a rate of 44% intensification, although it should be recognized that a large contributor has been the development of rental housing supported by the City's Affordable Housing Program; Brantford's role as central City and regional service centre within the broader economic region, which over time will lead to growth in higher-level services such as regional retail facilities, culture and entertainment and health care, as well as more intensive forms of development; and The regional land supply situation, in particular the industrial land supply. The City of Brantford's ability to provide large development parcels with access to Highway 403 is a major competitive advantage in the GGH employment land market. This advantage is expected to result in steady employment growth over the period to 2031, which will further increase the community s attraction as a location for more intensive forms of development. 3. Planned Expansion of Wilfrid Laurier Will Further Support Intensification A further factor likely to support intensification in Brantford is the planned expansion of the Wilfrid Laurier University in the Downtown Area. According to the University's 2010 Campus Master Plan: Enrolment is forecast to grow from 2,000 to 15,000 students to 2023 and beyond; Growth in enrolment will require approximately 1,500 additional faculty and staff; Approximately 250,000 m 2 of new building space will be required for classrooms, library facilities, recreation and athletic space and other uses, such as food services and assembly facilities; Between 3,000 and 4,400 new parking spaces will be required; and The University will need to add nearly 5,000 new beds to its current inventory of student residences. 1 Growth in enrolment and associated building space will have a major impact on intensification, particularly in the UGC which is anticipated to be a major focus of the University's planned expansion. 1 For details, see the Wilfrid Laurier University Campus Master Plan, prepared by IBI Group in January Some of the forecast employment growth may be post HEMSON

25 23 In our view, the City of Brantford is well-positioned to accommodate the Growth Plan 40% intensification target. There is a significant supply potential, one that is well in excess of the required 3,800 units. The outlook for growth in the community is positive, particularly as it relates to the regional land supply situation and planned expansion of Wilfrid Laurier University. B. DENSITY IS BELOW GROWTH PLAN TARGETS FOR THE UGC AND GREENFIELD AREAS Currently, the Growth Plan targets for density in the City of Brantford's UGC and designated greenfield areas are not being met. The density of the UGC is approximately 68 residents and jobs per ha, which is below the 150 mandated by the Growth Plan. The planned density of the City s greenfield land supply is also below the Growth Plan target of 50 residents and jobs per ha. 1. Density of the UGC Is Approximately 68 Residents and Jobs Per ha The density of the City's UGC has been estimated using a variety of information sources. It should be viewed as highlevel in nature and for the purposes of strategy formulation, given that population and employment figures are not available at the UGC geography, they must be estimated from Census Tract data and recent development patterns between Census periods. As shown in Table 10 below, the density of the UGC is estimated to have risen from approximately 60 residents and jobs combined per ha to 64 in 2006 and then to 68 in The density is based on an overall land area of 110 gross ha as measured from the City s GIS database and in accordance with the Growth Plan density definition. Table 10 Estimated Density of Urban Growth Centre (UGC) City of Brantford UGC Population Employment Total Land Area 2,500 4,100 6, ha 2,700 4,300 7,000 2,900 4,600 7,500 Growth Plan density Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd., 2011 based on available Census information. 2. Planned Density of the Greenfield Areas Is below 50 Residents and Jobs Per Ha The City of Brantford s designated greenfield areas are made up of both residential and industrial (employment land) areas. The City s greenfield residential supply is made up of three specific areas, including: HEMSON