2006 YEAR END HOUSING MONITORING AND SUBDIVISION STATUS REPORTS

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1 Town of Fort Erie Community & Development Services Our Focus: Your Future Prepared for: Council-in-Committee Report No.: CDS Agenda Date: March 5, 2007 File No.: / Subject: 2006 YEAR END HOUSING MONITORING AND SUBDIVISION STATUS REPORTS Summary of Recommendations: THAT Report CDS regarding the 2006 Housing Monitoring Report and 2006 Year-End Subdivision Status Report be received for information purposes and circulated to the appropriate agencies and stakeholder groups listed in the report; List of Stakeholders: Town of Fort Erie Regional Municipality of Niagara Fort Erie Economic Development and Tourism Corporation Residents of Fort Erie Home Builders in Fort Erie & Niagara Prepared by: Submitted by: Approved by: Original signed Original signed Original signed D. Heyworth, MCIP, RPP Senior Policy Planner DH:ggf R. Mostacci, MCIP, RPP Director, Community & Development Services Harry Schlange, MBA Chief Administrative Officer

2 Community & Development Services Report No. CDS Page 2 of 4 Purpose of Report The purpose of this report is to present the findings of the Town s annual Housing Monitoring Program, and to illustrate how it relates to the recommendations of the 2003 Municipal Housing Statement (MHS) and the Revised 2005 Urban Land Needs Assessment (ULNA). The 2006 Year-End Subdivision Status Report and the 2006 Housing Monitoring Report are attached as appendices to this Report. Analysis In keeping with Provincial Policy, it is necessary to regularly monitor the Town s housing supply. The purpose of the Housing Monitoring program is to track the supply of housing and land for residential purposes, in order to accurately address future urban land needs. The 2003 MHS, adopted by Council on February 10, 2004, established an annual housing target of 165 units per year. Although the current Official Plan identifies a housing mix of 70% low density, 15% medium density and 15% high-density units, the 2003 MHS recommended a revised housing mix to better reflect recent building trends. The 2003 MHS updated housing mix is 80% low density, 10% medium density and 10% high-density units, and this has therefore been used in the 2006 Housing Monitoring Report. A five year view of the Municipal Housing Statement will be initiated in To properly assess Fort Erie s housing supply, the Housing Monitoring Program has been divided into two components, namely, a Housing Monitoring Report and a Subdivision Status Report. Both are needed to address Provincial Growth & Settlement Policies. The Housing Monitoring Report focuses on the number of housing starts over the past year as well as the potential supply of housing in terms of units and years of supply available. The Subdivision Status Report focuses on the actual subdivision and permit activity and the number of units in the various stages of the development process Housing Starts In view of the last 10 years, 2006 was a typical year for housing development in Fort Erie. A total of 142 units were constructed above the ten year average, but below the Municipal Housing Statement target of 165 units. The Year End Subdivision Status Report indicates that the total of 142 housing units are composed of 123 low-density units (single-detached and semi-detached dwellings) and 19 multiple units (townhouse dwellings). This represents an increase of 12 units overall from 2005.

3 Community & Development Services Report No. CDS Page 3 of 4 Although the Fort Erie housing market has been dominated by an almost exclusive demand for single detached dwellings, there are signs the trend is changing. This is reflected in the overall percentage of multiple units in combined Registered and Draft Approved Plans at 16%. This housing mix compares well with the Municipal Housing Statement target of 10% medium and 10% high density. Given Fort Erie s existing unique character, higher density development will only occur in appropriate areas, preferably identified through the Neighbourhood Plan process. The last year a highdensity project (apartment dwelling units) was constructed was in A trend towards more multiple units is occurring because of shifting demographic profile and increased interest to the age in place. Furthermore, Provincial Policy requires urban lands to be used efficiently so there is an onus to ensure an appropriate mix of housing types occurs through the planning process. For example multiple unit development provides a desirable housing form for the growing seniors sector. Overall Housing Supply Using figures from the 2006 Subdivision Status Report and targets from the Municipal Housing Statement, Registered and Draft Approved Plans provide an estimated year supply of units, exceeding Provincial Policy supply requirements The Revised 2005 Urban Land Needs Assessment (ULNA), approved by Council in September 2005,was prepared to address urban boundary expansion requests received through the Official Plan update process and to determine available urban land supplies for orderly planned growth and development. Based on this information, the Town conservatively possesses over a 32-year supply of lands designated for residential purposes, based on a 200 unit per year development rate. Financial/Staffing Implications The effect of new residential development on the local economy and Municipal finances fluctuates with local building activity. The construction of 142 dwelling units in 2006 represents over a $30 million investment in the local economy as well as assessment growth. Residential construction in 2006 generated approximately $938,000 in Town development charges to be re-invested in growth infrastructure. Policies Affecting Recommendation(s) The Town s Official Plan establishes specific requirements to ensure that there is an adequate supply of land available for future housing needs. In particular, it requires that a ten-year supply of lands for residential purposes be maintained and designated in the Official Plan. Provincial policy also specifies that a three-year supply of draft-approved and registered plans of subdivision for residential purposes must be maintained.

4 Community & Development Services Report No. CDS Page 4 of 4 The best way to ensure targets are met is to assess the land requirements for development through the completion of annual Housing Monitoring Reports and periodic update of the Municipal Housing Statements. In addition, the ULNA can be updated every 5 years in concert with the Official Plan update. Comments from Relevant Departments/Community and Corporate Partners This report and the Housing Monitoring Report will be circulated to the following relevant stakeholder groups and agencies: Regional Municipality of Niagara Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing (Provincial Planning Services Branch) Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation Niagara Real Estate Board Niagara Home Builders Association District School Board of Niagara Niagara Catholic District School Board Owners of Registered and Draft Approved Plans of Subdivision Fort Erie Economic Development and Tourism Corporation Alternatives Not applicable. Conclusion The Town is in compliance with Provincial policy related to the supply of designated residential land as well as Registered and Draft Approved plans. With respect to unit type, there are a higher number of low-density units in Registered Plans than the 80% recommended by the MHS. However medium density multiple units are within the range of MHS targets for medium and high density development in draft approved plans. This reflects the changing housing market and attempts in meeting Provincial Policy for a variety of housing types and efficient use of urban land. The Town should monitor the supply of land available for medium to high-density development to ensure that there is a broad range of housing alternatives within the Town. Attachments Appendix Housing Monitoring Report Appendix Year-End Subdivision Status Report

5 APPENDIX 2 TO ADMINISTRATIVE REPORT CDS MARCH 5, 2007

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15 APPENDIX 1 TO ADMINISTRATIVE REPORT CDS MARCH 5, HOUSING MONITORING REPORT Page 1 of 8 INTRODUCTION The purpose of the Housing Monitoring Report is to illustrate recent residential development activity and to identify the Town s current residential land inventory. This report provides a summary of the number of units available on Registered Plans, the number of units proposed in Draft Plans, the number of units proposed in plans pending draft approval and the number of potential units that can be developed on the Town s designated urban residential lands. Housing data are based on housing starts originating from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation data. This ensures that Town information is consistent with Regional, Provincial and National information. BACKGROUND The Town has established an annual housing monitoring program in accordance with the provisions of the Town Official Plan and Provincial Policy. In 2004 the Town also adopted a new Municipal Housing Statement. In September 2005, Council adopted a Revised Urban Land Needs Assessment which form the basis for housing policies contained within the Proposed Draft Official Plan. The data from the MHS and the ULNA also form the basis for the information contained in the 2006 Housing Monitoring Report. As well, Community and Development Services produces regular Subdivision Status Reports to track housing activity in the Town based on housing starts. Land Budget This Report addresses the supply of future housing units by focusing on the following elements: housing activity by area; number of available units in Registered Plans; the number of proposed units in approved Draft Plans; the number of proposed units in plans in process and pending approval; and, the number of potential units on undeveloped designated residental land. HOUSING MONITORING Housing Targets New housing targets are established in the 2003 Municipal Housing Statement based on historical trends as well as projected population and household growth. These targets are an estimate of future housing needs in the Town. The total annual housing target is 165 units per year. Table No. 1 compares the housing target to 2006 housing starts.

16 APPENDIX 1 TO ADMINISTRATIVE REPORT CDS MARCH 5, 2007 Page 2 of 8 Table No. 1 Annual Housing Targets vs Housing Starts Annual Housing Targets 2006 Housing Starts Units Mix Units Mix Low Density % 123 * 86.6% Medium Density (Multiple Units) % % High Density % 0 0% TOTAL % 142 * 100.0% Source: Housing starts for 2006 based on Town of Fort Erie Building Department data. * Includes 20 units in Rural areas. Historical Housing Starts, 10-Year Period ( ) Historically, housing activity in Fort Erie has focused on low-density dwellings. Over the last ten years, low density dwellings accounted for 96.5% of all new housing, averaging 127 units per year as illustrated in Table No. 2. The proportion of medium and high density units constructed during the period has only accounted for 3.5% of all new housing. In 2004, a total of 130 housing starts were recorded in the Town representing 78.7% of the overall total annual housing target. This represents a slight drop in the total number of dwelling units constructed compared to last year. The amount of units constructed is only marginaly lower then the 10 year average. Table No. 2 Housing Starts, YEAR Low Density Medium Density High Density Total (100%) (100%) (96%) 6 (4%) (100%) (100%) (95.3%) 6 (4.7%) (84.8%) 24 (15.2%) (96.5%) 5 (3.5%) (96.15%) 5 (3.85%) (86.6%) 19 (13.4%) TOTAL AVERAGE 128 (94.8%) 6.5 (4.8%) * TARGET 132 (80%) 16.5 (10%) 16.5 (10%) 165 Source: Town of Fort Erie Building Department and CMHC * Number rounding

17 APPENDIX 1 TO ADMINISTRATIVE REPORT CDS MARCH 5, 2007 Page 3 of 8 LAND BUDGET Registered Plans of Subdivision As of December 31, 2006, there were potentially 492 units available in Registered Plans of which 476 were for low density units (singles and semis). The remainder constitutes a supply of 46 medium density units. The breakdown by unit type is presented in Table No. 3. Table No. 3 Housing Supply In Registered Plans By Unit Type Unit Type Number of Units Years Supply ** Low Density 476 (91.2% of supply) * 3.6 years Medium Density (Multiple Units) 16 (3.25 % of suply) 0.97 years High Density 0 No supply Total 492 * Includes 14 lots situated outside the urban boundary. ** Based on the Municipal Housing Statement targets. As shown above, there is a 3.6 year supply of low density units, and a 0.97 year supply of medium density units within registered plans of subdivision. There are currently no sites designated for high density development within registered plans of subdivision. It should be noted there are individual sites outside of Registered Plans of Subdivisions re zoned for multi-unit development. Draft Approved Plans of Subdivision As of December 31, 2006, there was a potential of 1219 units of all housing types within Draft Approved Plans of Subdivision. The 961 low density units (singles and semis) within Draft Approved Plans account for 78.8% of the total unit supply. There are 258 medium density units (21.2%) and no high density units. The breakdown by the supply of Draft Approved units by unit type is presented in Table No. 4. Table No. 4 Housing Supply In Draft Approved Plans Unit Type Number of Units Years Supply ** Low Density 961 (78.8% of supply) * 7.28 years Medium Density (Multiple Units) 258 (21.2% of supply) years High Density 0 No supply Total 1219 * Includes 92 lots located outside the urban area boundary. ** Based on Municipal Housing Statement targets.

18 APPENDIX 1 TO ADMINISTRATIVE REPORT CDS MARCH 5, 2007 Page 4 of 8 Table No. 5 Housing Supply On Registered and Draft Approved Plans Status Low Density * Medium Density High Density Total Registered Draft Appr Total 1437(84%) 274(17.5%) Years Supply ** 10.9 years 16.6 years years * Includes 104 lots outside the urban area boundary. ** Based on Municipal Housing Statement targets. Based on the MHS targets, the Registered and Draft Approved Plans represent an 10.4 year supply of low density units and a 16.6 year supply of medium density units. There is no supply of high density units in draft approved plans. It is noted that some of the supply in this category cannot proceed to the Registration/development stage due to servicing constraints. Registered Plan Summary District Number Of Vacant Units Remaining Low Medium (Multiple Units) High Total Fort Erie/Crescent Park Ridgeway/Crystal Beach/Thunder Bay Stevensville Douglastown Outside Urban area Total Draft Approved Plan Summary District Number Of Units Proposed Low Medium (Multiple Units) High Total Fort Erie/Crescent Park Ridgeway/Crystal Beach/Thunder Bay Stevensville Douglastown Outside Urban Boundary Total

19 APPENDIX 1 TO ADMINISTRATIVE REPORT CDS MARCH 5, 2007 Page 5 of 8 Pending Plans of Subdivision (not approved) This category includes conceptual plans which have been informally presented to the Department and pending plans in process which have not yet received Draft Approval. As of December 31, 2006, there were 1023 potential units of all types within the Pending Plans category. Of this total, 686 were for low density housing (singles and semis), which accounted for 67% of the supply. There were 337 medium density units, accounting for 33 % of the supply and no high density units. The breakdown by the supply of units within Conceptual plans by unit type is presented in Table No. 5. Table No. 5 Housing Supply In Pending Plans Unit Type Number of Units Years Supply Low Density 686 (67% of supply) 5.2 years Medium Density 337 (33 % of supply) 20.4 years High Density 0 No supply Total There is a 5.2 year supply of low density units based on the MHS target of 132 units per annum and a 20.4 year supply of medium density units based on a target of 16.5 units per annum. There is no supply of high density units within Pending Plans. Pending Plan Summary District Number Of Units Proposed Low Medium High Total Fort Erie/Crescent Park Ridgeway/Crystal Beach/Thunder Bay Stevensville Douglastown Outside Urban Boundary Total REVISED 2005 URBAN LAND NEEDS ASSESSMENT In September 2005, Council approved the Revised 2005 Urban Lands Needs Assessment (ULNA) as a means of further refining the findings of the MHS. The ULNA is the process by which the Town allocates land uses by scrutinizing all existing designations based on need and compliance with Provincial Policy. The approach taken in completing the ULNA was to determine the Town s urban land requirements based on the population buildout to around 16,750 dwelling units and a corresponding population of around 38,280 by the year The Assessment conservatively scrutinized the Town s residential land supply by utilizing the

20 APPENDIX 1 TO ADMINISTRATIVE REPORT CDS MARCH 5, 2007 Page 6 of 8 findings and recommendations of the MHS and the Natural Heritage Study to determine future urban land requirements and urban growth areas, as well as utilizing a residential building permit allocation of 200 units/year for the urban area. Inaddition to providing the residential land supply of Registered and Draft Approved subdivisions, the ULNA also looked at the potential units from infill (severance parcels), as well as other vacant residentially designated lands that included the Pending Plans. The following Table identifies the potential number of units from these lands: Table 2.3- Table Depicting The Data And Calculations To Determine Available Units From Infilling Lots And Vacant Residential Lands. Communities Douglastown Stevensville CB/R/T ***** Fort Erie # Of Infill Parcels Infill Areas (ha.) * Potential # Of Infill Units ** Vacant Residential Area (ha.) *** Potential #Of Vacant Residential Units **** Total Units Totals Notes- *Infill areas represent areas with an existing dwelling that have severance potential. An area of ha. (60x120 ft. lot) has been removed from the calculated area for each existing unit. ** The number of infilling units was calculated based on a density of 15 units/ha. or ha./ unit (60x 120 ft. lot) on the basis that few areas would require new roads. *** The vacant residential area excludes Environmental Protection Areas and Locally Significant Natural Areas, as well as lots in Registered and draft approved Plans of Subdivision. The serviceability of these lands was considered and is addressed in this Section. **** The number of units that can potentially be accommodated on vacant residential lands was calculated using a gross density of 15 units/ ha. (6.1 units/acre). ***** Denotes Crystal Beach/Ridgeway/Thunder Bay.

21 APPENDIX 1TO ADMINISTRATIVE REPORT CDS MARCH 5, 2007 Page 7 of 8 The Town s ULNA conservatively calculated net residential land requirements as set out below: Net Supply Based on the preceding analysis, the Town s urban land requirements to the year 2026 are as follows: Land Use Hectares % Housing (including roads) Recreational / Community Utilities Contingency Urban Land Need Based on the foregoing, a total of c hectares of designated vacant residential lands are needed to satisfy the Town s residential growth requirements to the year 2026 and comply with Provincial Policy. The residential land requirement provides for an annual absorption rate of hectares per year for 20 years. As noted earlier, the Town currently possesses hectares of vacant residential lands within the Town s urban Areas. Accordingly, based on the absorption rates for the residential lands requirement, the Town currently possesses a year supply of vacant residentially designated lands. There is in addition a 7.1 year supply in approved plans at 200 units per year. It is important to note the 940 infill units (only 40% of all infill units) represents an additional long term housing supply. If the 200 units per year were to take place only on these infill parcels there would be an additional 4.7 year housing supply. In total, the Town possesses a conservative 32 year residential land supply. CONCLUSION This Housing Monitoring Report combined with data from the Revised 2005 Urban Land Needs Assessment demonstrates the Town is meeting the Provincial objectives being: 1. Maintain at all times the ability to accommodate residential growth for a minimum of 10 years through residential intensification and redevelopment, and if necessary, lands which are designated and available for residential development; and 2. Maintain at all times where new development is to occur, land with servicing capacity sufficient to provide at least a 3 year supply of residential units available through lands suitably zoned to facilitate residential intensification and redevelopment, and land in registered and draft approved plans.

22 APPENDIX 1 TO ADMINISTRATIVE REPORT CDS MARCH 5, 2007 Page 8 of 8 3. The Town actually has over a 10 year supply of lands in registered and draft plan approved status alone. With respect to unit type, there is a slightly higher number of low density units in Registered and Draft Plan approved categories than the 80% recommended by the 2003 MHS. Although there are no hig density developments in Registered and Draft Approved Plans, the Town could exceed it s 10% objective in multiple units (medium density) in the future. The Town should monitor this trend, and be sure that there is an adequate supply of land available for medium to high density development,especially through the Neighbourhood Plan process, in order to assure a broad range of housing alternatives within the Town.

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